![Davison/Saginaw Arthur Hill girls basketball](/sites/default/files/2021-12/211220_GBB_2H.png)
Breslin Bound: 2021-22 Girls Report Week 3
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
December 20, 2021
How last season ended can affect how next season begins – and among trends this season are a number of girls basketball programs picking up again after strong finishes last winter.
That’s also a theme among headliners in our Breslin Bound report this week, as we cruise into a holiday break that will slow things down for some – but still include a number of notable matchups, as we’ve also covered below.
“Breslin Bound” is powered by MI Student Aid and based on results and schedules posted for each school at MHSAA.com.
Week in Review
The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:
1. Detroit Edison 67, Hudsonville 48 The Pioneers (3-1) continued another great start with a big win over the reigning Division 1 champion Eagles (3-2) at the West Michigan Spotlight.
2. Wayne Memorial 61, Detroit Renaissance 44 This win over the reigning Division 1 runner-up Phoenix (2-2) started an impressive week that also included double-digit victories over Belleville and East Grand Rapids that pushed Wayne to 3-1.
3. Portland St. Patrick 53, Fowler 49 Two of the state’s best in Division 4 are neighbors, and the Shamrocks improved to 6-0 by handing reigning Finals champion Fowler (5-1) its first defeat; they meet against Feb. 1.
4. Hudsonville 59, Byron Center 56 (OT) While the Eagles’ losses have come to statewide contenders Edison and Midland Dow, they’ve stacked some wins closer to home with Byron Center (2-2) coming off a league title.
5. Sault Ste. Marie 51, St. Ignace 29 Reigning Straits Area Conference champion Sault Ste. Marie (5-3) earned a key win in what could be a three or four-team (out of five) race this winter, with the Saints (3-1) always a factor.
Watch List
With an eye toward March, here are two teams in each division making sparks:
Division 1
Haslett (6-0) The Vikings are building on a 14-3 finish from last winter that included two losses to East Lansing, including the season-ender in the District Final. They avenged those with a 43-42 win last week, with their only other single-digit victory so far a noteworthy 41-38 edging of Jackson Northwest in the opener.
Utica (6-0) The Chieftains followed two straight 15-win seasons by finishing 6-10 last winter, but closed with a District title. They’ve rolled right into this winter with four wins by 28 points or more, but also two by just a bucket that have been the most impressive – handing the only losses to Port Huron (42-40), and last week, Macomb Dakota (48-45).
Division 2
Otsego (6-0) Despite last winter’s abbreviated schedule, Otsego did improve a win to 9-6 and has continued to rise this winter. A 53-47 victory over Portage Central on Dec. 7 remains Central’s lone defeat, and the Bulldogs have a chance to close the calendar year with another nice statement when they host Marshall on Dec. 30.
Saginaw Swan Valley (5-1) The Vikings won five of their last six games to close 2020-21 at 10-7, their first winning season over the last three, and they’ve also carried some momentum into December. The lone loss was to still-unbeaten Lansing Catholic, and Swan Valley dealt the only defeats to Reese and Essexville Garber by matching 54-43 scores.
Division 3
Carson City-Crystal (4-0) Last season’s 8-10 finish included a pair of losses to Mid-State Activities Conference rival Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart, and the highlight of this start has no doubt been the 37-32 win over the Irish last week. All three of the Eagles’ other victories were by 16 points or more. The first matchup with reigning MSAC champion St. Charles is Jan. 21.
Hancock (5-1) Hancock’s only loss came to undefeated Calumet last week as it builds on last winter’s 11-5 finish. The Bulldogs’ highest win total over the last five seasons has been 13 wins, and they should make a run at surpassing that after also handing Ewen-Trout Creek its lone defeat and avenging last season’s District loss (and also a two-point regular-season defeat) to Negaunee.
Division 4
Baraga (6-0) The Vikings are perhaps the Upper Peninsula’s strongest program that remains a bit under the statewide radar, but they’ve won league and at least District championships the last three seasons and show no signs of slowing down. After opening with a five-point win over Ontonagon, Baraga has won its last five games by an average of 33 points per contest.
Lake Leelanau St. Mary (4-0) Edging a Rudyard team 47-45 on Saturday that could contend in the Straits Area Conference was an attention-grabber for the Eagles, who won five of their last six last season to finish 9-7. Games this week against Saginaw Valley Lutheran and then at Carlton Airport’s showcase to end December will provide opportunities to make noise as well.
Can't-Miss Contests
Be on the lookout for results of these games coming up:
Tuesday – Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (3-0) vs. Grand Rapids West Catholic (3-0) at Cornerstone University – These two will meet in a Blue opener of Cornerstone’s annual holiday event.
Wednesday – Grand Rapids Christian (4-1) vs. Kent City (6-0) at Cornerstone University – They will play for the Gold title, with Grand Rapids Christian defeating reigning Division 2 runner-up Newaygo on Monday to advance.
Dec. 29 – Frankenmuth (4-0) vs. Ypsilanti Arbor Prep (4-0) at Redford Westfield Prep – This may be the premier game of the Motor City Roundball Classic, matching contenders in Divisions 2 and 3, respectively.
Dec. 29 – St. Ignace (3-1) vs. Port Huron (3-1) at Redford Westfield Prep – This is another of the most intriguing Motor City Roundball Classic matchups.
Dec. 30 – Marshall (3-1) at Otsego (6-0) – As noted above, this pairs two Division 2 teams that appear on the rise, with Marshall’s only loss by three opening night to Division 1 Battle Creek Lakeview.
Second Half’s weekly “Breslin Bound” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTOS (Top) Davison evened its record last week with a 55-40 win over Saginaw Arthur Hill. (Middle) Otsego moved to a 6-0 with a 72-46 win over Vicksburg. (Photos by Terry Lyons and Gary Shook, respectively.)
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Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.