Breslin Bound: 2021-22 Girls Quarterfinal Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
March 15, 2022
We're reached the final stretch of this season's Breslin Bound trip, as 685 varsity teams have become just 32 remaining for tonight's Quarterfinals across the state.
We've given a glance at all 16 games below as we prepare for a more significant preview of Thursday and Friday's Semifinals at Michigan State. We'll be posting those throughout Wednesday.
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DIVISION 1
West Bloomfield (22-1) vs. Troy (13-11) at University of Detroit Mercy, 7 p.m.
Troy is appearing in its first Quarterfinal, and West Bloomfield its first since 2003. They both play in the Oakland Activities Association Red, clinched by West Bloomfield with Troy finishing fourth and the Lakers winning both regular-season meetings. West Bloomfield made its biggest headline with a 65-62 win over Detroit Edison, and they’re led by sophomore twins Summer Davis (14.5 ppg) and Indya Davis (14.3). Four seniors start for Troy, with 6-foot-2 Kendal Zeiter leading the scoring at 17.4 points per game.
Rockford (22-2) vs. East Lansing (19-4) at Calvin University
The Trojans, returning to the Quarterfinals for the second-straight season, are looking to advance for the first time since 2018. Senior guard Soraya Timms sets the pace at 13.9 points, 5.6 assists and 4.8 steals per game. Rockford is making its second Quarterfinal appearance, and first since 2010, after defeating reigning Division 1 champion Hudsonville in the Regional Final. Sophomore guard Grace Lyons leads a balanced lineup scoring 11.8 points per game with 49 3-pointers, making nearly 47 percent of her attempts from beyond the arc.
Midland Dow (23-1) vs. Hartland (23-1) at Lapeer
This is a rematch of last season’s Quarterfinal, won by Dow 42-32, as the Chargers went on to fall to eventual champion Hudsonville in a Semifinal. Dow’s only loss this season was in overtime in mid-January to Division 2 quarterfinalist Frankenmuth, and the Chargers are paced by senior standouts Alexa Kolnitys (18.1 ppg, 4.7 assists per game) and Abby Rey (17.6 ppg, 56 3-pointers). Hartland, which lost to Howell but avenged that defeat twice, features a balanced lineup with four players averaging 8-10 ppg, with 6-2 senior Lauren Sollom a tough post matchup.
Wayne Memorial (22-2) vs. Riverview (20-4) at Ypsilanti Lincoln
Wayne is playing in its fourth-straight Quarterfinal (not counting 2020, when the season was ended early because of COVID-19), and made the Semifinals a year ago. The Zebras have only one senior in the starting lineup and should continue to surge. Riverview is coming off its first Regional championship and has won 18 straight since its last loss Jan. 2. The Pirates downed Temperance Bedford (17-6) and Dearborn Divine Child (19-5) last week to advance. Junior Elyssa Kincaid (16 ppg) leads three averaging at least 14 points per game for Riverview.
DIVISION 2
Grand Rapids West Catholic (23-1) vs. Edwardsburg (24-0) at Wayland
Both of these teams took the next step last week after falling in Regional Finals a year ago, Edwardsburg reaching the Quarterfinals for the first time and West Catholic the first time since 1995. The Falcons’ only loss was in December, by four, to Division 1 quarterfinalist Rockford. Senior guard Abbey Kimball, the Miss Basketball Award runner-up, leads with 25.1 ppg and 97 3-pointers – the latter good for third-most in one season in MHSAA history. Edwardsburg has a major long-distance threat as well – senior Katie Schaible is one of three Eddies averaging in double figures (11.6 ppg), and she has 69 3-pointers.
Detroit Country Day (12-7) vs. Marysville (22-2) at University of Detroit Mercy, 5:30 p.m.
Country Day is returning to the season’s final week after making the Semifinals last season, while Marysville is here for the first time. Four of last season’s Semifinal starters fill the lineup again for the Yellowjackets. Marysville has won 19 straight since last losing Dec. 21. Senior guard Kaitlyn Cain leads at 14.4 ppg and also tops the team in rebounds and steals.
Portland (23-1) vs. Detroit Edison (16-3) at Williamston
This highly-anticipated matchup sends the reigning Division 2 champion and current No. 3 (by MPR) Raiders against the overall Division 2 top-seeded Pioneers, who celebrated senior Ruby Whitehorn (23.9 points, 12.1 rebounds per game) as the Miss Basketball Award winner Monday. The West Bloomfield defeat (see above) was Edison’s only in-state loss playing a schedule loaded with Division 1, 2 and 3 contenders. Portland’s lone loss came to No. 7 Lansing Catholic and was avenged twice. Senior guard Ashley Bower (19.1 ppg) also was the team’s leading scorer last season.
Ludington (19-5) vs. Frankenmuth (22-2) at Cadillac
Frankenmuth is returning to the Quarterfinals for the first time since 1996, and despite losing an all-stater to injury in the season opener. Sophomore Mia McLaughlin leads a balanced lineup in scoring (14.3 ppg), rebounds, assists and steals and is tied for the team lead in blocks. Ludington is returning to the Quarterfinals for the first time since 2008, with senior RyAnn Rohrer and junior Keelyn Laird leading another balanced lineup scoring 10.7 ppg apiece.
DIVISION 3
Maple City Glen Lake (24-0) vs. Lake City (20-4) at Traverse City Central
Glen Lake is returning to the Quarterfinals for the second straight season and seeking to make the Semifinals for the first time since 2018 after its only loss last season was in that Quarterfinal to Calumet. Senior guard Grace Bradford leads in scoring (22.9 ppg), 3-pointers, rebounds, assists and steals. Lake City returned to the Quarterfinals most recently in 2019, and avenged two late losses this winter during the postseason. Cousins Chloe Bisballe (13.1 ppg), a senior, and sophomore Mackenzie Bisballe (15.4) combine to lead the team in most major stat categories.
Dansville (17-7) vs. Ypsilanti Arbor Prep (22-2) at Concord
Arbor Prep is the No. 1 overall seed in Division 3 and lost only to Division 1 Parma Western and Division 2 top seed Detroit Edison, with wins over Wayne Memorial and Frankenmuth among others. Senior Mya Petticord (22.9 ppg) was a Miss Basketball Award finalist. Arbor Prep made the Quarterfinals as recently as 2019, while Dansville is making an appearance for the first time since 2008. The Aggies avenged a regular-season loss to Leslie and defeated 2021 Division 3 champion Grass Lake last week. Senior Erin Sherwood is the leading scorer at 16.4 ppg.
Kent City (24-0) vs. Schoolcraft (23-1) at Otsego
This is another Quarterfinal rematch from last season. After falling a two-point loss shy from claiming a first Finals championship last year, Kent City is back and undefeated again with four starters returning from that runner-up team. Junior Lexie Bowers (17 ppg) and sophomore Madelyn Geers (14.4) should make the team a contender next season as well. Schoolcraft’s only defeat was in its season opener to Division 4 quarterfinalist Plymouth Christian Academy, and it is looking to reach the Semifinals for the first time. Senior Mackenzie Miller leads at 16 ppg.
Madison Heights Bishop Foley (19-3) vs. Reese (20-4) at West Bloomfield
Reese is making its first appearance in a Quarterfinal and Bishop Foley its second after advancing last year for the first time. The Rockets defeated two league champions in winning last week’s Regional, with senior standouts from the Division 3-winning volleyball team Aydan Dalak (15 ppg) and Josie Johnson (12) the leading scorers. Senior center Melanie Moore (17.1 ppg) leads a Bishop Foley team that fell to Arbor Prep by only five in the regular-season finale before starting a dominating tourney run.
DIVISION 4
Baraga (22-1) vs. Pickford (19-2) at Munising
Pickford has broken through with its first Regional title since 1988, its only losses this season to Division 3 St. Ignace and impressive tournament wins over Mackinaw City (18-4), Engadine (15-8) and Posen (21-2). Senior Kennedy Guild leads four averaging double-digit scoring at 19.2 ppg, with 61 3-pointers. Baraga is back at the Quarterfinals having most recently advanced in 2019, and with its only loss this season to Division 2 Houghton. Senior guards Reide Osterman (16.1 ppg) and Cori Jahfetson (13.8) set the pace for the Vikings.
Gaylord St. Mary (22-2) vs. Fowler (21-3) at Clare
The reigning Division 4 champion Eagles last saw St. Mary in a 2019 Quarterfinal win, and they bring three starters from last year’s championship game back into this final week including all-state guards Mia and Emma Riley. St. Mary avenged one of its two losses, to 2021 Division 4 runner-up Bellaire, during this postseason as part of a 10-game winning streak. The Snowbirds have four scoring in double digits, led by junior Ava Schultz (13.3 ppg, 74 3-pointers).
Muskegon Heights Academy (9-8) vs. Adrian Lenawee Christian (18-6)
Lenawee Christian is back at the Quarterfinals for the third time in four seasons (not counting 2020’s COVID-related early ending). Senior guard Kylie Summer is the leading scorer at 11.3 points per game, and she’s drilled 62 3-pointers. Muskegon Heights is coming off its first Regional title since 1995 and has won seven of its last nine games. The future looks bright as well, as the team starts all sophomores and juniors.
Plymouth Christian Academy (20-4) vs. Genesee Christian (20-4) at St. Clair Shores Lake Shore
Plymouth Christian Academy entered the postseason as the No. 1 overall seed in Division 4, and has returned to the Quarterfinals for the second time and first since 2013. Genesee Christian is making its first appearance in this round. Lone senior Anna Fernandez paces PCA at 17.1 ppg, while Genesee Christian is similarly well-positioned for the future with a freshman and sophomore in the starting lineup.
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PHOTOS (Top) Hartland's Gracey Metz (23) works to get the ball upcourt against Clarkston last week. (Middle) Country Day's Aysia Yokely (21) bursts past halfcourt during last week's win over Livonia Clarenceville. (Top photo by Terry Lyons, middle photo by Douglas Bargerstock.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.