Michigan’s Football Numbers Game – Corrected
September 1, 2017
Today’s blog was written by MHSAA Second Half Editor Geoff Kimmerly
The demise of Michigan high school football has been greatly exaggerated – or, at least, recently misreported by one of the U.S.’s most recognizable newspapers that noted as part of a larger story on football decline that Michigan has seen a “net loss of 57 teams in the past five years.”
It’s easy to understand how this error took place – especially when a reporter is not familiar with the football landscape in our state – but that doesn’t make this statement any less misleading, or harmful considering the story since has been picked up by multiple large news organizations. So let’s quickly clear up the misinterpreted information:
-
The data that led to this error came from an annual participation report released by the National Federation of State High School Associations (NFHS). Every spring, state associations (like the MHSAA) from every state and Washington, D.C., tally up how many of their member schools have a sport and how many athletes play it.
-
For 2016-17, the MHSAA submitted to the NFHS a total of 580 schools with 11-player football – that number actually includes all schools that reported having at least one football player, including primary and secondary schools in co-ops. And yes, that 580 is 57 fewer than the 637 11-player schools the MHSAA submitted for 2012-13.
-
But saying Michigan has lost 57 football programs misses out on something incredibly significant – the MHSAA also submitted 60 schools with 8-player football last year, up from 16 in 2012-13, making that net decrease in football schools over five years 13 – far fewer than 57.
And with a few more brush strokes, the picture of football in our state actually shows a healthy landscape:
-
The 640 schools in Michigan with at least one football player for 2016-17, 11 and 8-player combined, is actually eight more than we reported to the NFHS four years ago and 10 more than three years ago.
-
A better picture of Michigan’s football consistency is shown by how many varsity programs are taking the field. This fall, that number is 616 – 555 11-player varsities and 61 8-player – and we also had 616 for most of the 2016 season, 616 in 2015 and 615 in 2014.
-
We’ve had programs bring back varsity teams this year, and in one case a school has a team on its own for the first time. Benzonia Benzie Central and Suttons Bay were unable to field varsities in 2016, but Benzie Central is back playing 11-player and Suttons Bay is back with an 8-player team. Brimley, an 8-player school going back to 2010, also is fielding a team again after being unable to do so last year. Mount Clemens played only two varsity games in 2016 and forfeited a third, but has seven scheduled for this fall and lost close in its opener last week. And Bear Lake, previously a secondary school in a co-op program, now has a team all its own for the first time and is playing at the 8-player level.
-
Yes, there has been a decrease in Michigan high school football participation when it comes to the number of players – for reasons we discuss frequently, including more extracurricular/entertainment options than ever for students, more who are specializing in other sports and safety fears that often are misplaced. But we’ve also seen a three percent drop in enrollment at MHSAA member schools over the last five years. And despite that trend, Michigan again had the sixth-highest 11-player football participation in the nation in 2016-17 (and seventh-highest in 8-player) while ranking 10th nationally in number of residents of high school age.
-
So yes, while a nine percent drop in the number of football players over the last five years in Michigan clearly is troubling, and something we’re working with the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association to reverse, let’s also put those numbers in perspective. At medium-sized to bigger schools, it could mean a roster of 40 might have only 36 players. A roster of 20 at an 8-player school might go down to 18. Neither would signal the need to eliminate a football program.
-
And that move by so many schools to 8-player? It definitely started as a way for low-participation programs to keep football (and has worked for most of them). While that still may be the driving force as schools move from 11 to 8, others have made the switch because most of their former opponents did and joining them makes scheduling easier and travel shorter. Michigan has a multitude of small towns, and you’ll find most of these 8-player programs in pockets in the thumb, southwest or northern Lower Peninsula, or Upper Peninsula. And keep in mind, only Class D teams remain eligible for the 8-player playoffs – and only two of 61 teams playing 8-player this fall are larger than Class D and its enrollment limit of 203 students for 2017-18.
The story behind “a decrease of 57 schools” clearly is a little complex to explain and explain away, but it’s necessary to do so.
Yes, Michigan’s total number of football players is down a few percent. But the sport’s prominence and importance in our schools and communities remains high.
Culture Change Creates More Organized, Motivated & Successful Manchester
By
Doug Donnelly
Special for MHSAA.com
September 27, 2022
Manchester’s football team is going through a re-birth.
One of the team’s top players – senior Jaxon McGuigan – calls it a change in culture.
“This summer, when we were having workouts or lifting, we had 30 guys show up every time,” said McGuigan, the team’s leading receiver. “When I was younger, there were times we would have only 10 guys. If we had 10 guys there now, we knew something would be wrong.”
Manchester is one of the oldest prep football programs in the state. It also has been one of the most successful. From 2003-16, the Flying Dutchmen made the playoffs 13 of 14 seasons, including a streak of nine straight. Then, for a variety of reasons, the bottom fell out.
Manchester went from 9-2 and a Cascades Conference championship in 2015 to back-to-back 4-5 seasons in 2017 and 2018, a 2-5 record in 2020 and 3-6 last season.
Head coach Ben Pack was brought in to make changes to the program. He’s delivered. Now in his third season, the Dutchmen have a signature win over three-time reigning league champion Addison and stand 4-1 midway through the season. They are firmly in the playoff hunt and are just a game behind league leader Napoleon, the only team to beat them this season. Even that was a close game until the end.
“Our numbers were so low when I got here,” Pack said. “We struggled. That first year, the COVID year, we could barely put together a scout team.
“When I got here, we had four guys returning from the previous year and six juniors who were on JV as sophomores,” Pack said. “Ten guys in the program. I had to do a lot of recruiting in the hallways. We had to get kids out for football.”
Pack is a veteran coach. He is a Jackson native who started his coaching career at Jackson High School while in college. He became the head coach at Parma Western in 1983 and headed home to Jackson after that. The Vikings put together a string of good teams, including the 1999 group that was Jackson’s first playoff qualifier.
Pack left Jackson in 2002 to become an administrator, but remained in football when he joined the Albion College staff. He returned to the high school ranks a couple of seasons ago at Parma Western as a volunteer assistant. Two seasons later he was named head coach at Manchester.
Pack has not only been recruiting in the Manchester hallways, but he’s also been busy implementing a strength program.
“We had no organized lifting program,” he said. “We had guys who would come in to lift, but nothing organized. Now the kids come in and they are working, they are getting stronger and more mature. Those kids who were freshmen and sophomores when I got here are stronger and more mature. With strength and maturity comes confidence.”
One of his players that first year was a freshman quarterback, Kannon Duffing, who made one start.
“He competed,” Pack said. “He was definitely a half-pint, but he played, and he did a nice job. He completed passes. He wasn’t ready to win, yet, but he grew from it and learned from the experience.”
Duffing completed 60 percent of his passes last year for 1,273 yards and nine touchdowns. This season, he’s been even better. Through five games, Duffing has completed 57 of 82 passes, a healthy 69.5 percent, for 821 yards and nine touchdowns. His interceptions have dropped from eight last year to just two this fall.
“We don’t throw deep a lot,” Pack said. “But what we do throw, he’s very accurate. He gets the job done. He’s the unsung hero for us. He’s the catalyst. He is the key to the whole thing.”
Wide receiver Andrew Campbell, running back Wyatt Carson and McGuigan are benefactors of Duffing’s accuracy.
“He is so good,” McGuigan said. “I know he’s going to put the ball right there. We have other good receivers, too, and he does a great job at getting us the ball. Our game plan is not to just get the ball to me.”
McGuigan is a former quarterback himself. He shifted to receiver early on in his career at Manchester and likes the move. He’s now a 6-foot-2, 170-pound college prospect. He’s a three-sport athlete with a 4.0 GPA.
Pack said McGuigan has great technique in the way he runs routes.
“Every successful team has a player or two that the other kids count on,” Pack said. “Jaxon has accepted that responsibility and is a role model for handling the pressure.”
Through five games, McGuigan has caught 37 passes for 554 yards and seven touchdowns. The biggest came with time running out against Addison and helped the Flying Dutchmen overcome a two-score deficit to defeat the Panthers. The Flying Dutchmen defense came up big in that game, too, when they put together a goal-line stand during the final moments to keep Addison out of the end zone.
“To be honest, that’s the type of game the last couple of years that we wouldn’t win,” McGuigan said. “To beat them just shows that everyone has buy-in now. It just shows how we’ve changed the culture here.”
Two weeks ago, Manchester bounced back from the Napoleon loss to win against East Jackson. McGuigan had one of his biggest games with eight catches for 106 yards and two touchdowns.
East Jackson coach Joe Niehaus said McGuigan is one of the most complete receivers he’s coached against.
“He runs great routes and catches virtually everything thrown to him,” Niehaus said. “On top of that, he is a threat to go the distance after the catch every single time.”
Manchester has conference games remaining against Michigan Center, Hanover-Horton, and Grass Lake. The Dutchmen are a top-10 team in Division 7 playoff points and are sitting nicely as they attempt to get back into the postseason.
“Ever since Coach Pack came here, it’s been drilled into us to trust the process,” McGuigan said. “We’re still far from where we could be as a team.”
Doug Donnelly has served as a sports and news reporter and city editor over 25 years, writing for the Daily Chief-Union in Upper Sandusky, Ohio from 1992-1995, the Monroe Evening News from 1995-2012 and the Adrian Daily Telegram since 2013. He's also written a book on high school basketball in Monroe County and compiles record books for various schools in southeast Michigan. E-mail him at [email protected] with story ideas for Jackson, Washtenaw, Hillsdale, Lenawee and Monroe counties.
PHOTO Manchester receiver Jaxon McGuigan holds on to the ball while Addison defenders take him out of bounds. (Photo by Mark Ball, courtesy of the Manchester football program.)