Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
1st & Goal: 2024 Playoffs Week 1 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
November 1, 2024
Tonight, the 50th MHSAA Football Playoffs begin. And while we’ll always focus on how they finish, how the stage is set at the start makes them perhaps most meaningful to the thousands who have earned this experience over the last half-century.
Football is the only MHSAA-sponsored head-to-head sport for which teams must qualify for the opportunity to continue into the postseason. Making the playoffs for many can rank right up there with winning a league championship, and potentially higher when schools reach them for the first time, or first time in a long time.
No teams accomplished that feat this fall after Perry and Hart made their playoff debuts in 2023. But of the 601 varsities that took the field during the regular season, only seven haven’t made the MHSAA Playoffs at least once. At the same time, 682 schools have made at least one postseason appearance, including several which have since shut their doors or merged with other schools. When Beal City and Crystal Falls Forest Park take the field this weekend, they’ll do so after qualifying for the playoffs for an MHSAA-record 39th time, not counting COVID-shortened 2020 when all but a few teams made the field.
Tournaments begin with District Semifinals in 11-player and Regional Semifinals in 8-player. Tickets to both cost $7, and nearly 120 of the 144 games to be played will be streamed live on the NFHS Network. See below for some of the matchups that most pop off the page this first round, and come back to MHSAA.com all weekend for scores and updated pairings.
11-Player Division 1
Oxford (6-3) at Davison (7-2)
Oxford is coming off winning arguably the most powerful league in the state – the Oakland Activities Association Red, which includes Clarkston, Lake Orion, Rochester Adams and West Bloomfield – and a District title claimed over the next two weeks would be the program’s first since 2001. But in terms of depth of talent, the Saginaw Valley Red may not be far behind its OAA counterpart, and Davison’s only losses this season were by six points two weeks ago to champion Grand Blanc and in a season opener to Division 2 contender Warren De La Salle Collegiate.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY East Kentwood (5-4) at Hudsonville (8-1), Clarkston (6-3) at Lake Orion (6-3), Saline (6-3) at Northville (6-3), Romeo (4-5) at Utica Eisenhower (7-2).
11-Player Division 2
Grand Rapids Northview (9-0) at Byron Center (8-1)
Northview packing up the bus for a road game explains plenty of what Byron Center has seen on its schedule this season, with its only loss by two points in Week 4 to quite possibly the Division 2 favorite Muskegon Mona Shores. But Northview has seen its share of competition as well in finishing a regular season undefeated for the first time since 1970 (according to Michigan-Football.com). The Wildcats will find out how all of that transfers as they pursue more program history – their first playoff win.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Portage Northern (5-4) at Portage Central (6-3), Milford (7-2) at East Lansing (6-3), Warren Mott (7-2) at Birmingham Seaholm (6-3), Roseville (7-2) at Grosse Pointe South (9-0).
11-Player Division 3
Riverview (8-1) at Trenton (6-3)
Trenton has to be one of the most intriguing three-losses teams in the state. The Trojans opened this season with losses to Brownstown Woodhaven and Southgate Anderson – the latter would end up second in the Downriver League – but Trenton went on to defeat eventual league champion Gibraltar Carlson in Week 6 and another co-runner-up Allen Park in Week 7 before suffering a one-point loss to Southeastern Conference White champ Chelsea in Week 8. Riverview, meanwhile, hits the road with its only loss to Huron League champion Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, potentially the favorite in Division 7 this month. That defeat also was the only game over the last seven in which the Pirates didn’t score at least 43 points.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Cedar Springs (7-2) at Lowell (7-2), Zeeland East (5-4) at Zeeland West (8-1), Linden (4-5) at Fenton (7-2), Garden City (7-2) at Walled Lake Western (9-0).
11-Player Division 4
Paw Paw (8-1) at Niles (8-1)
This is a rare repeat from a Week 9 regular-season game, won by Niles 21-0 to take the Wolverine Conference championship outright. The shutout was the Vikings’ second in a row and fifth this season and lowered their points allowed average this fall to 6.3 per game. But all is not lost for Paw Paw; prior to the shutout the Red Wolves were averaging 38.1 points per game, and they no doubt would savor an opportunity to avenge such a recent disappointment.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Edwardsburg (6-3) at Battle Creek Harper Creek (8-1), Ortonville Brandon (6-3) at Goodrich (8-1), Harper Woods (6-3) at Redford Union (8-1), Croswell-Lexington (6-3) at Marysville (8-1).
11-Player Division 5
Clare (7-2) at Ogemaw Heights (8-1)
These two shared the Jack Pine Conference Division 1 championship thanks to Ogemaw Heights’ 41-34 win over the Pioneers in Week 5 (and also Ogemaw’s 27-25 loss to Standish-Sterling in Week 7). In their first meeting, Ogemaw led by 15 at the end of the third quarter, Clare tied it up with 3:57 to play and Ogemaw scored the final go-ahead points on a fourth-down touchdowns with 1:08 left on the clock. Clare’s only loss since came last week to undefeated Petoskey, while the Falcons rebounded from their lone defeat with wins over playoff teams Harrison and Croswell-Lexington.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Dowagiac (6-3) at Berrien Springs (6-3), Flint Hamady (5-3) at Corunna (7-2), Whitmore Lake (7-2) at Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard (5-4), Detroit Denby (6-3) at Flat Rock (7-2).
11-Player Division 6
Ovid-Elsie (7-2) at Almont (9-0)
These two have met in the playoffs three of the last four seasons, with Almont winning last year’s Semifinal matchup 45-21. The Raiders have had only one game closer than 14 points this fall – a 29-28 win over rival Armada in Week 6 – and last week’s 41-22 victory over Detroit Edison was especially notable as a potential spark for another run. Ovid-Elsie started this fall powerfully before running into still-undefeated Chesaning in Week 7 and then falling to Standish-Sterling last week, but the Marauders are playing for their third-straight eight-win season and between those defeats avenged a 2023 loss to New Lothrop.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Negaunee (6-3) at Boyne City (7-2), Constantine (6-3) at Parchment (7-2), Detroit Central (6-3) at Detroit Edison (6-3), Detroit Old Redford (8-1) at Detroit Pershing (7-2).
11-Player Division 7
Union City (8-1) at Hanover-Horton (8-1)
Union City not only won a third-straight Big 8 Conference title this season but also has its most wins since 2014, and despite falling to Buchanan 17-7 a week ago. Hanover-Horton is coming off a loss as well, 35-14 to Leslie in the Cascades Conference championship game, but also is at eight wins for the first time since 2014 and after winning the Cascades West championship. Both teams’ offenses were stopped last week, but Union City averaged nearly 39 points per game coming into Week 9 and the Comets were at just over 41.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Charlevoix (6-3) at Traverse City St. Francis (6-3), Harrison (7-2) at McBain (8-1), Napoleon (6-3) at Hudson (8-1), Ottawa Lake Whiteford (5-4) at Clinton (6-3).
11-Player Division 8
Ubly (6-3) at Harbor Beach (9-0)
On paper this might not seem too intriguing, but the storylines stack up nicely. Ubly is the reigning Division 8 champion but lost its first three games this fall including 45-6 to Harbor Beach in Week 3. However, the Bearcats have not lost again or even come close, winning their last six games by nearly 29 points per. That said, Harbor Beach has yet to cool down after escaping an opener with Cass City with a two-point victory. The Pirates are allowing just six points per game and scoring 46 as they passed 60 last year week for the second time this fall.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Frankfort (7-2) at Beal City (7-2), Saugatuck (6-3) at White Pigeon (8-1), Manchester (7-2) at Petersburg Summerfield (8-1), Bark River-Harris (5-4) at East Jordan (7-2).
8-Player Division 1
Martin (7-1) at Gobles (9-0)
Their Oct. 11 meeting was among the games of the year for all of 8-player football this regular season and decided a league title, and the magnitude of this rematch may eclipse it. Gobles won that Week 7 matchup 20-14, holding on to hand the two-time reigning Division 1 champion Clippers their only loss this fall. But surely Martin has noted a few times over the last three weeks that Gobles won last year’s regular-season game as well, 53-16, before Martin won the rematch 28-6 on the way to that repeat Finals championship.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Mendon (8-1) at Climax-Scotts (8-1), Fulton (8-1) at Kingston (7-2), Munising (6-3) at Pickford (9-0). SATURDAY Norway (7-2) at Ishpeming (6-2).
8-Player Division 2
Portland St. Patrick (8-1) at Morrice (8-1)
St. Patrick has won their last two meetings including 29-12 in Week 4 this fall, with that victory keyed in part by quarterback Brady Leonard – who has continued to put up big numbers. Morrice will attempt to slow him down with a defensive group that has given up only 26 points over five games since that loss to the Shamrocks, including a Week 5 shutout of Fulton – the lone team to defeat St. Patrick as all three shared the Mid-State Activities Conference Red title.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Marion (8-1) at Onekama (8-1), Burr Oak (7-2) at Pittsford (7-2), Mio (7-2) at Au Gres-Sims (8-1). SATURDAY Gaylord St. Mary (7-2) at Powers North Central (8-1).
MHSAA.com's weekly “1st & Goal” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a division within the Department of Lifelong Education, Advancement, and Potential (MiLEAP). MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Click to connect with MI Student Aid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO Belleville's Bryce Underwood (19) prepares to take a snap during his team's regular-season win over Livonia Stevenson. (Photo by Douglas Bargerstock.)