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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '18

October 21, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

For a fading moment, we thought we saw the Big Dipper floating through the second floor of the MHSAA office Sunday morning.

Michigan’s northernmost high school in Calumet held the handle – but the only place the rest of the Region pointed was to questions about how we could come up with such a disjointed scenario for this season’s Division 6 Playoffs.

Below – as has become an annual tradition – we’ll answer that question and a few more about this year’s selection process.

Our mission Sunday was to map 213 automatic qualifiers for 11-player football – and a record 43 additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 records – plus our top 32 8-player teams across 10 divisions of playoffs that will conclude with the latter Nov. 17 at Northern Michigan University and 11-player Nov. 23-24 at Ford Field.

As often noted in the past, this process didn’t start Sunday morning – but months and in some cases more than a year ago when athletic directors began scheduling games for this fall. We make sure all are loaded into our system by early summer, and then follow every score/cancellation/forfeit/additional change through Week 9’s final games – including this season those for 46 teams from other states or Ontario that played Michigan schools and needed to be followed as well because their successes affected MHSAA teams’ strengths of schedule.

Now that the maps are drawn, we line up all that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal sites and continuing our work with our Finals hosts to create memorable experiences as teams play for championships.

So we’re off. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2018.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, and in 2017 a second division of 8-player football was introduced.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

As noted above, this season there were 213 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 43 additional qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so with those five we added 13 teams from Class A and B and 12 from Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The 8-player process is different for team selection and similar for designation of Regionals. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 (or in 8-player, 16) dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2018

We always start with CONGRATULATIONS: And this season they go first to Detroit Community, Detroit Public Safety Academy and Dexter, which made the MHSAA Football Playoffs for the first time. Of 611 football varsities across the state, all but 12 have made the playoffs at least once. Rockford missed out on an automatic bid with a Week 9 loss, but received an additional qualifier berth to set the record by making the MHSAA Playoffs for the 24th straight season. Crystal Falls Forest Park (22 seasons), Stevensville Lakeshore (21), Macomb Dakota (18), Climax-Scotts (16) and Grand Rapids West Catholic (16) also extended their stays on the list for longest MHSAA playoff streaks.

Break the tie: We again had to break a tie (actually two for District rounds) as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Our tie-breaks this season both took place in Division 4 – Grand Rapids South Christian received a home game against Wyoming Godwin Heights this week and St. Clair will host North Branch if they meet in a District Final. There are more possible meetings of teams with same averages in later rounds, and those ties will be broken the same way.

What is up with Division 6: Last year I had a “worst map ever,” and two of them this year would be in contention. Division 6 is the first – but the explanation for how we came up with what we did is simple. Region 1 is made up of two Districts with six schools from the northern Lower Peninsula and two from the Upper Peninsula. So however the Districts were sliced, two Lower Peninsula schools had to go with the U.P. And we settled this one strictly by comparing highway mileages of those Lower Peninsula teams to Mackinac Bridge (again, the only way to travel between the peninsulas). In the end, we placed Elk Rapids (93 miles) and Traverse City St. Francis (124) with Escanaba and Ishpeming Westwood because they are closest to the Bridge – followed by Kingsley (126), Maple City Glen Lake (144), Beaverton (161) and Tawas (168). The optics are strange – it may look like Glen Lake is driving past Elk Rapids and St. Francis on the way to Beaverton this week and potentially Tawas next. But Glen Lake’s route still travels south of those two schools this week (and depending on its chosen route on the way to Tawas as well), making everything fit – strangely looking, but nonetheless.

Lake Huron tour: You could see most of the American side by checking out this week’s Region 2 games in 8-player Division 2. This map also looks odd – there’s a bridge crossing and a drive around Saginaw Bay. Yet, after drawing this at least two more ways, we settled here – although Region 2 looks a little odd, all four teams are east of I-75 and north of Bay City.

Get your zoom on: We don’t enjoy splitting up teams that live next door to each other, but sometimes it’s a must. In Division 7 we were able to keep all eight Detroit-area and southeastern schools in Region 4, but the distance between its Districts came down to a few miles along I-96. In Division 2, we had to factor in outliers Port Huron Northern and Temperance Bedford – and the resulting Districts ended up splitting Livonia Churchill and Livonia Franklin.

At the end of the day …

I include this every year, but we draw the maps not knowing which schools are represented by the dots. At one point Sunday morning, I was wrong about which division we were considering at the time – and that’s a good thing. For the map drawing portion, it doesn’t matter.

But now that we know who is going where, here’s a glance at some stories that might emerge this week:

• We’ve got rivalries, like Portage Northern at Portage Central and Birmingham Groves at Birmingham Seaholm in Division 2, St. Johns at DeWitt and Haslett at East Lansing in Division 3, Constantine at Schoolcraft in Division 6 and Waterford Our Lady at Clarkston Everest Collegiate in Division 8 – plus Kingston at Deckerville in 8-player Division 1. There are many more we could mention – and some potential feuds renewed in two weeks as well depending on who wins this round.

• The Macomb Area Red, generally considered one of the strongest leagues annually in the state, sent four of six teams to the Division 1 playoffs – and they’re all in the same District. Champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-0) takes on Utica Eisenhower this week, and with a win would face either Macomb Dakota or Romeo after defeating both by just seven points during the regular season.

• Perhaps the most intriguing opener statewide is River Rouge (8-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (7-2) in Division 3. Neither gets tested much during their league seasons, but both played tough nonleague opponents and the winner will be considered a favorite to make it to Ford Field.

• Farmington Hills Harrison holds the records for most MHSAA Finals appearances (18) and titles (13) and will play its final playoffs in Division 4 after finishing Division 3 runner-up a year ago. The school is closing next spring. Coach John Herrington is the winningest in state history with 441 wins and counting against only 111 losses (and a tie).

• There are a few annual powers not in the bracket this season – most notably Lowell, Muskegon Catholic Central and Menominee – and others like Rockford, Mendon and Grand Rapids West Catholic got in as additional qualifiers. West Catholic has won five straight Division 5 championships and opens at Hudsonville Unity Christian. The Falcons won the 2013 title after also entering as a 5-4 team.

• There are 34 teams entering the playoffs unbeaten, but only four Districts have multiple – Manistee and Reed City share one in Division 5, Traverse City St. Francis and Calumet in Division 6, Reading and Ottawa Lake Whiteford in Division 8, and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian and Morrice in 8-player Division 1. All of those potential matchups would happen in 11-Player District or 8-Player Regional Finals.

• This will be the eighth year of the 8-player tournament, and in Division 1 only Deckerville in 2012 has won an MHSAA championship in this format. In Division 2, reigning champion Crystal Falls Forest Park opens with 2015-16 back-to-back champion Powers North Central.

• In 8-player, three teams with 5-4 records didn’t make the field of 32, and two teams with 4-5 records advanced. This is the reality of measuring by playoff point average. Fife Lake Forest Area and Webberville are the 4-5 teams, and their opponents this season won more than 61 percent of their games. The three teams at 5-4 and one at 4-4 had opponents’ winning percentages between 38-56 percent.

Every school and every community can tell a story of making these playoffs, and over the next five weeks the fortunate will continue to write chapters filled with moments that will never be forgotten. We’re looking forward to watching them all unfold.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 6 map shows an odd-looking scenario with two Traverse City-area teams in the same District as two from the Upper Peninsula. (Middle) The 8-player Division 2 map shows how schools are connected to a District along the Lake Huron shoreline.

Negaunee's Kai Lacar gets a few yards before being tackled by Kingsford's Wyatt Scott (24) and Caleb Kleist (30).

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 4 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 18, 2023

We're just a few days past the fourth week of this high school football season. A few of Michigan's high school leagues have yet to even begin play.

MI Student AidBut for several others, we already are getting ideas of which teams might be celebrating championships when the regular season is done – and we're likely to look back at Week 4 as playing a big part.

Several conference favorites and other early impressers met over the weekend, and a number of standings shifters are highlighted below: 

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Gladwin 44, Clare 28 The Flying Gs (4-0) took over first place alone in the Jack Pine Conference, but only after flipping this game during the final 25 minutes. Clare took a 21-3 lead with 1:07 left in the first half – but Gladwin responded with a touchdown pass with 29 seconds left before the break, and then Jhace Massey threw another after an onside kick to get the margin to just five points by halftime. Clare (2-2) pushed the lead back to 12 to start the second half, but Gladwin then scored 28 unanswered points, and Massey finished with those two passing touchdowns and three more running the ball. Click for more from MI Sports Now.

Watch list Almont 29, North Branch 22 Almont (4-0) gave up just its first points of this season in starting the heart of the Blue Water Area Conference schedule with this win over the reigning co-champion Broncos (2-2), and with the other co-champion Armada and current co-leader Croswell-Lexington up over the next two weeks, respectively.

On the move Ubly 56, Harbor Beach 20 Ubly (4-0) stands alone atop the Greater Thumb Conference East standings after scoring its season high to get past the Pirates (3-1). Montrose 29, Ovid-Elsie 22 Montrose (4-0) will play Chesaning for first in the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference this week now having defeated reigning champion Durand and the reigning runner-up Marauders (2-2). Midland Bullock Creek 28, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 0 Bullock Creek (2-2) is seeking its first winning season since 2019 and avenged a 14-13 loss to MLS from last year to get back to even this fall with both losses so far by only seven points apiece.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Lake Orion 17, West Bloomfield 13 Lake Orion (4-0) is off to its best start since finishing 9-2 in 2019, its four wins equaling last year’s total and the team’s most since that last winning season. The Dragons went ahead for good with 1:24 to play, giving them their first win in the annual matchup since 2013. Lake Orion’s defense came up especially big, holding the Lakers (3-1) to their fewest points in a regular season game since also scoring 13 in the 2018 finale. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

Watch list Detroit Cass Tech 14, Detroit Martin Luther King 7 The result of this matchup generally means a Detroit Public School League division title for the winner, and Cass Tech is among three teams without a loss early in the PSL Blue after De’Mari Hendrix put them ahead to stay with a score during the final minute.

On the move Southfield Arts & Technology 42, Birmingham Groves 35 The Warriors (4-0), No. 8 in the Division 1 coaches poll, got the weekend rolling with a Thursday night win over Division 2 No. 5 Groves (2-2). Novi 39, Brighton 21 Novi avenged last season’s 41-6 loss to the Bulldogs (1-3) and is 3-1 for the first time since 2013. Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 40, Detroit Country Day 0 NDP (4-0) avenged last season’s 35-19 District Final loss to Country Day (1-3) while winning its third-straight game by 40 or more points this fall.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER East Lansing 40, DeWitt 34 East Lansing (2-2) scored first and then held off a second-half Panthers comeback attempt to remain one of three teams undefeated in Capital Area Activities Conference Blue play. The Trojans also ran their winning streak over DeWitt (1-2) to two in adding to last season’s 36-30 win, as this has become one of the annual must-see games in the Lansing area. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Lansing Sexton 28, Charlotte 0 By moving to 4-0, Sexton has equaled last season’s win total and all but guaranteed its best finish since its most recent winning season in 2017. The J-Dubbs shut down a Charlotte offense that averaged 42 points per game during the Orioles’ 3-0 start.

On the move Mason 37, Williamston 12 Mason (4-0) just keeps churning, this time extending a winning streak over Williamston (2-2) to four after the last two matchups between them had been decided by eight points or fewer. Belding 49, Comstock Park 21 Belding (3-1) has run its Ottawa-Kent Conference Silver winning streak to eight with all but one of those victories by double digits as it seeks to repeat as champion. Beal City 50, Houghton Lake 8 Beal City is winning its games by an average score of 47-7 after this one over a much-improved Bobcats team that sits 3-1.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Charlevoix 50, East Jordan 6 Charlevoix (3-1) has handed the first loss this season to its last two opponents, and East Jordan (3-1) very well could go on to contend in the Northern Michigan Football Conference Legacy. This provided the Rayders with more momentum as they head into this week’s matchup with Benzie Central that could eventually decide the NMFC Leaders title. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.

Watch list Kingsley 64, Boyne City 13 Kingsley (3-1) is averaging just under 50 points per game after putting up a season high against the Ramblers (2-2), another contender in the NMFC Leaders.

On the move Frankfort 55, Johannesburg-Lewiston 0 Frankfort (4-0) earned its second-straight shutout of the Cardinals (2-2), but the Panthers’ defense has shined all season giving up just under 11 ppg. Traverse City St. Francis 28, Grayling 22 The young Gladiators (2-2) might be finding their stride after two straight losses, settling in against a Grayling team that’s 2-2 and had topped 30 points in all of its first three games. Gaylord 9, Petoskey 0 An impressive defensive stand put Gaylord (4-0) in position to play Cadillac this week for sole possession of first place in the Big North Conference, with Petoskey (2-2) among those hoping to stay in the race with another chance or two coming up to impact it.

Traverse City West defenders pursue a Grand Blanc ball carrier during the Bobcats' 43-7 win.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Jackson Lumen Christi 28, Detroit U-D Jesuit 6 Lumen Christi’s first game as part of the Detroit Catholic League saw the Titans (4-0) give up their first points of the season, and only six in adding to the impressiveness of this victory over last year’s CHSL AA champion Cubs (3-1). Click for more from the Jackson Citizen Patriot.

On the move Napoleon 42, Manchester 21 The Pirates took an important first step as they seek to repeat as league champions, this time of the new Cascades Conference East. Manchester (3-1) had given up only 29 points total over its first three games, but Napoleon (4-0) upped its early scoring average to 42 ppg and its regular-season winning streak to 14.

On the move Adrian 29, Tecumseh 7 Adrian is 4-0 for the first time since 2010 and hadn’t defeated Tecumseh (1-3) since 2011. Grass Lake 42, East Jackson 8 Grass Lake (4-0) also is undefeated at the top of the Cascades Conference East, with Napoleon up next. Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard 34, Riverview Gabriel Richard 6 AAGR avenged last season’s 11-point loss to RGR (1-3) to move to 4-0 – giving the Fighting Irish one more win than all of last season and guaranteeing their best finish since 2019.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Constantine 27, Schoolcraft 21 Constantine (3-1) twice led by double digits and held on to run their winning streak against the Eagles (3-1) to two. The Falcons will start Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore play this week on the best-possible note, especially key as all six league teams area 2-2 or better heading into the league schedule. Click for more from the Three Rivers Commercial-News.

Watch list Dowagiac 39, Parchment 14 Dowagiac has had a mostly rough last three seasons, going a combined 5-20, but head into Lakeland Conference play this week with more wins than all of the last two seasons combined and after handing Parchment (3-1) its lone defeat.  

On the move Benton Harbor 34, Buchanan 27 Benton Harbor (2-2) opened Lakeland play with its third-straight game decided by seven points or fewer, but this one a win over the reigning league champion Bucks (2-2). Watervliet 18, Coloma 16 These two played for the 111th time – ranking 11th among Michigan high school rivalry games – and after the rivalry took a break the last two years. Paw Paw 40, Vicksburg 17 A testament to their tough schedule, the Red Wolves (4-0) made the playoffs last season at 4-5 – and all four of their wins so far this fall are over 2022 playoff teams.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Negaunee 13, Kingsford 12 The Miners started the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper schedule a win down, losing to Gladstone two weeks ago. But the reigning champs are right back in the mix after handing Kingsford a narrow defeat in the teams’ first meeting since 1994. The Flivvers (3-1) had reached 34 points in all three of their wins before Negaunee slowed them down. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Watch list Menominee 44, Calumet 0 With Gladstone, Negaunee and Kingsford handing each other defeats, Menominee (4-0) sits on the top of the Copper standings with those three coming up, but also having given up only six points this season with three shutouts.

On the move Houghton 34, Ishpeming Westwood 16 After two losses to open the fall, Houghton (2-2) has bounced back with two wins and gets Menominee next. Sault Ste. Marie 21, Escanaba 7 The Blue Devils (3-1) met a slightly more familiar opponent in their second game as part of the Big North Conference, adding a second win in two seasons over Escanaba (1-3). Manistique 52, West Iron County 0 After taking an eight-point loss to Ishpeming in Week 2, Manistique has two straight wins (and two straight shutouts) to get to 2-2 – after winning two games total in 2022 and 2021.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Rockford 42, Caledonia 16 The Rams (4-0) hurdled perhaps their toughest obstacle early as they pursue a fifth-straight Ottawa-Kent Conference Red title. Rockford’s defense shut down a Caledonia attack that averaged 42 points per game over its first three, and in doing so also avenged last year’s one-point District Final loss to the eventual Division 1 runner-up Fighting Scots (3-1). Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Watch list Muskegon 42, Muskegon Mona Shores 21 The Big Reds (2-2) ran their streak in another of the state’s most competitive rivalries to three straight wins, with M’Khi Guy throwing two touchdown passes and running for another score against the Sailors (2-2).

On the move Allendale 61, Hamilton 38 The Falcons (4-0) are another team on the rise, with their four wins equaling their totals of both of the last two seasons and this victory the only loss for a Hamilton team that at 3-1 has already bested its 2022 finish. Saugatuck 15, Union City 14 The Trailblazers won just two games last season but are 4-0 for the first time since 2016 and with this win over the reigning Big 8 Conference champ Chargers (3-1) their most impressive. Big Rapids 25, Reed City 14 The Cardinals (3-1) earned their first win over Reed City (1-3) since 2009, and in doing so stayed in a tie atop the Central State Activities Association Gold.

8-Player

HEADLINER Carson City-Crystal 45, Merrill 30 Carson City-Crystal (4-0) made its move to 8-player football this season coming off five straight 11-player playoff seasons. The Eagles’ first three wins this fall came against teams that are a combined 1-11, but this one over the reigning Division 1 runner-up Vandals (3-1) tells plenty about how quickly they are advancing in the new format. Click for more from the Greenville Daily News.

Watch list Gobles 53, Martin 16 The Tigers (4-0) have absolutely dominated this season, outscoring their opponents by a combined 237-24 – and that includes this win over reigning Division 1 champion Martin (2-2), which had won the last two meetings with Gobles by a combined 110-6.

On the move Brown City 46, Deckerville 28 The Green Devils (4-0) are in their second season of 8-player and first as part of the North Central Thumb League Stars – and they are tied for first after handing annual contender Deckerville (3-1) its only defeat. Pickford 44, Rudyard 42 By nearly the closest of margins, Pickford (4-0) ended a two-game losing streak to Rudyard (3-1) and after falling 34-6 last season. St. Ignace 30, Indian River Inland Lakes 28 The Saints (4-0) just keep climbing as well, with Inland Lakes (3-1) the third team they’ve handed a first loss this season.

Second Half’s weekly “1st & Goal” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and X (Twitter) @mistudentaid.

PHOTOS (Top) Negaunee's Kai Lacar gets a few yards before being tackled by Kingsford's Wyatt Scott (24) and Caleb Kleist (30). (Middle) Traverse City West defenders pursue a Grand Blanc ball carrier during the Bobcats' 43-7 win. (Top photo by Cara Kamps. Middle photo by Terry Lyons.)