Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '18

October 21, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

For a fading moment, we thought we saw the Big Dipper floating through the second floor of the MHSAA office Sunday morning.

Michigan’s northernmost high school in Calumet held the handle – but the only place the rest of the Region pointed was to questions about how we could come up with such a disjointed scenario for this season’s Division 6 Playoffs.

Below – as has become an annual tradition – we’ll answer that question and a few more about this year’s selection process.

Our mission Sunday was to map 213 automatic qualifiers for 11-player football – and a record 43 additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 records – plus our top 32 8-player teams across 10 divisions of playoffs that will conclude with the latter Nov. 17 at Northern Michigan University and 11-player Nov. 23-24 at Ford Field.

As often noted in the past, this process didn’t start Sunday morning – but months and in some cases more than a year ago when athletic directors began scheduling games for this fall. We make sure all are loaded into our system by early summer, and then follow every score/cancellation/forfeit/additional change through Week 9’s final games – including this season those for 46 teams from other states or Ontario that played Michigan schools and needed to be followed as well because their successes affected MHSAA teams’ strengths of schedule.

Now that the maps are drawn, we line up all that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal sites and continuing our work with our Finals hosts to create memorable experiences as teams play for championships.

So we’re off. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2018.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, and in 2017 a second division of 8-player football was introduced.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

As noted above, this season there were 213 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 43 additional qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so with those five we added 13 teams from Class A and B and 12 from Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The 8-player process is different for team selection and similar for designation of Regionals. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 (or in 8-player, 16) dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2018

We always start with CONGRATULATIONS: And this season they go first to Detroit Community, Detroit Public Safety Academy and Dexter, which made the MHSAA Football Playoffs for the first time. Of 611 football varsities across the state, all but 12 have made the playoffs at least once. Rockford missed out on an automatic bid with a Week 9 loss, but received an additional qualifier berth to set the record by making the MHSAA Playoffs for the 24th straight season. Crystal Falls Forest Park (22 seasons), Stevensville Lakeshore (21), Macomb Dakota (18), Climax-Scotts (16) and Grand Rapids West Catholic (16) also extended their stays on the list for longest MHSAA playoff streaks.

Break the tie: We again had to break a tie (actually two for District rounds) as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Our tie-breaks this season both took place in Division 4 – Grand Rapids South Christian received a home game against Wyoming Godwin Heights this week and St. Clair will host North Branch if they meet in a District Final. There are more possible meetings of teams with same averages in later rounds, and those ties will be broken the same way.

What is up with Division 6: Last year I had a “worst map ever,” and two of them this year would be in contention. Division 6 is the first – but the explanation for how we came up with what we did is simple. Region 1 is made up of two Districts with six schools from the northern Lower Peninsula and two from the Upper Peninsula. So however the Districts were sliced, two Lower Peninsula schools had to go with the U.P. And we settled this one strictly by comparing highway mileages of those Lower Peninsula teams to Mackinac Bridge (again, the only way to travel between the peninsulas). In the end, we placed Elk Rapids (93 miles) and Traverse City St. Francis (124) with Escanaba and Ishpeming Westwood because they are closest to the Bridge – followed by Kingsley (126), Maple City Glen Lake (144), Beaverton (161) and Tawas (168). The optics are strange – it may look like Glen Lake is driving past Elk Rapids and St. Francis on the way to Beaverton this week and potentially Tawas next. But Glen Lake’s route still travels south of those two schools this week (and depending on its chosen route on the way to Tawas as well), making everything fit – strangely looking, but nonetheless.

Lake Huron tour: You could see most of the American side by checking out this week’s Region 2 games in 8-player Division 2. This map also looks odd – there’s a bridge crossing and a drive around Saginaw Bay. Yet, after drawing this at least two more ways, we settled here – although Region 2 looks a little odd, all four teams are east of I-75 and north of Bay City.

Get your zoom on: We don’t enjoy splitting up teams that live next door to each other, but sometimes it’s a must. In Division 7 we were able to keep all eight Detroit-area and southeastern schools in Region 4, but the distance between its Districts came down to a few miles along I-96. In Division 2, we had to factor in outliers Port Huron Northern and Temperance Bedford – and the resulting Districts ended up splitting Livonia Churchill and Livonia Franklin.

At the end of the day …

I include this every year, but we draw the maps not knowing which schools are represented by the dots. At one point Sunday morning, I was wrong about which division we were considering at the time – and that’s a good thing. For the map drawing portion, it doesn’t matter.

But now that we know who is going where, here’s a glance at some stories that might emerge this week:

• We’ve got rivalries, like Portage Northern at Portage Central and Birmingham Groves at Birmingham Seaholm in Division 2, St. Johns at DeWitt and Haslett at East Lansing in Division 3, Constantine at Schoolcraft in Division 6 and Waterford Our Lady at Clarkston Everest Collegiate in Division 8 – plus Kingston at Deckerville in 8-player Division 1. There are many more we could mention – and some potential feuds renewed in two weeks as well depending on who wins this round.

• The Macomb Area Red, generally considered one of the strongest leagues annually in the state, sent four of six teams to the Division 1 playoffs – and they’re all in the same District. Champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-0) takes on Utica Eisenhower this week, and with a win would face either Macomb Dakota or Romeo after defeating both by just seven points during the regular season.

• Perhaps the most intriguing opener statewide is River Rouge (8-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (7-2) in Division 3. Neither gets tested much during their league seasons, but both played tough nonleague opponents and the winner will be considered a favorite to make it to Ford Field.

• Farmington Hills Harrison holds the records for most MHSAA Finals appearances (18) and titles (13) and will play its final playoffs in Division 4 after finishing Division 3 runner-up a year ago. The school is closing next spring. Coach John Herrington is the winningest in state history with 441 wins and counting against only 111 losses (and a tie).

• There are a few annual powers not in the bracket this season – most notably Lowell, Muskegon Catholic Central and Menominee – and others like Rockford, Mendon and Grand Rapids West Catholic got in as additional qualifiers. West Catholic has won five straight Division 5 championships and opens at Hudsonville Unity Christian. The Falcons won the 2013 title after also entering as a 5-4 team.

• There are 34 teams entering the playoffs unbeaten, but only four Districts have multiple – Manistee and Reed City share one in Division 5, Traverse City St. Francis and Calumet in Division 6, Reading and Ottawa Lake Whiteford in Division 8, and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian and Morrice in 8-player Division 1. All of those potential matchups would happen in 11-Player District or 8-Player Regional Finals.

• This will be the eighth year of the 8-player tournament, and in Division 1 only Deckerville in 2012 has won an MHSAA championship in this format. In Division 2, reigning champion Crystal Falls Forest Park opens with 2015-16 back-to-back champion Powers North Central.

• In 8-player, three teams with 5-4 records didn’t make the field of 32, and two teams with 4-5 records advanced. This is the reality of measuring by playoff point average. Fife Lake Forest Area and Webberville are the 4-5 teams, and their opponents this season won more than 61 percent of their games. The three teams at 5-4 and one at 4-4 had opponents’ winning percentages between 38-56 percent.

Every school and every community can tell a story of making these playoffs, and over the next five weeks the fortunate will continue to write chapters filled with moments that will never be forgotten. We’re looking forward to watching them all unfold.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 6 map shows an odd-looking scenario with two Traverse City-area teams in the same District as two from the Upper Peninsula. (Middle) The 8-player Division 2 map shows how schools are connected to a District along the Lake Huron shoreline.

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 7 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 5, 2023

It’s league title time as we dive into the final third of the 2023 football regular season.

MI Student AidOf 45 matchups highlighted below, nearly two-thirds could lead to either a conference championship being celebrated this weekend or impact a title race to be won over the next two.

Thursday’s rain is expected to continue in some parts of our state, but if you don’t attend in person most of the games below will be viewable on MHSAA.tv – click the “Watch” links to go directly to those broadcasts. Games below are Friday unless noted, and rankings are by the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association.

Bay & Thumb

Freeland (6-0) at Frankenmuth (5-1) - WATCH

For the third-straight season, the winner of this game will earn a league championship – this time, a share of the Tri-Valley Conference Red, as both teams still will have a league game to play Week 8 as well. The Eagles did see their 24-game regular-season winning streak end in their opener against Goodrich in August, but they haven’t lost a league game since 2014 – and have strung together four straight wins over Freeland, including 21-0 a year ago. After edging Clare 29-26 in their opener, the Falcons have dazzled offensively this fall, surpassing 50 points in all five of their league games.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker (4-2) at Cass City (5-1) - WATCH, Durand (3-3) at Chesaning (5-1) - WATCH, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (5-0) at Gladwin (6-0), Ithaca (6-0) at Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary (5-1).

Greater Detroit

Walled Lake Western (6-0) at Milford (5-1) - WATCH

Walled Lake Western is attempting to finish what would be a second-straight perfect run through the Lakes Valley Conference. The Warriors have won 17 straight league games and have two left this fall – with their most recent league loss to Milford in 2021. Waterford Mott got within 15 of Western in this year’s season opener, but no one else has been within 30 points. Milford has had closer results – a 26-23 loss to Dearborn Divine Child and three wins by eight or fewer points. But the defense has been stunning – giving up just 20 points over five league games – and it will provide an intriguing matchup with a Warriors offense averaging 50 ppg.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Lake Orion (6-0) at Clarkston (4-2) - WATCH, Romeo (3-3) at Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (4-2) - WATCH, Grosse Pointe South (5-1) at St. Clair Shores Lakeview (5-1) - WATCH, Macomb Dakota (5-1) at Utica Eisenhower (5-1) - WATCH.

Mid-Michigan

Charlotte (5-1) at Portland (6-0)

The Raiders could be closing in on a seventh Capital Area Activities Conference White title over the last eight seasons – but the next two weeks should be their most challenging of this run. The circled matchup is next week with also-undefeated Lansing Sexton. But to reach that winner-take-all, Portland must be careful with Charlotte. The Orioles have continued their resurgence into a third-straight season, and their only regular-season loss a year ago was 40-13 to the Raiders. They did fall to Sexton 28-0 three weeks ago, but can mash up this league race if they can slow a Portland team that’s won all of its games by at least four touchdowns this fall.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Williamston (4-2) at Haslett (4-2), St. Johns (3-3) at Mason (6-0), New Lothrop (5-1) at Ovid-Elsie (3-3), Bath (3-3) at Saranac (4-2)

Northern Lower Peninsula

Kingsley (5-1) at Ogemaw Heights (5-1) - WATCH

The Northern Michigan Football Conference Leaders division has been mostly a two-team race the last five seasons between Kingsley and Traverse City St. Francis. But Ogemaw Heights began pushing into contention last year and tonight will play Kingsley for an outright league title. The Falcons have given up only 59 points over their last five games after a 42-28 loss to still-undefeated Gladwin in Week 1. They’ve also gone 0-5 against Kingsley since joining the NMFL, but got within 30-20 a year ago. Kingsley’s lone loss this season also was to a still-undefeated opponent, Gaylord, and that was by just three points.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Fowler (5-1) at Frankfort (6-0), Kalkaska (3-3) at Grayling (3-3) - WATCH, Oscoda (3-3) at Benzie Central (3-3) - WATCH. SATURDAY Jackson Lumen Christi (6-0) at Traverse City St. Francis (3-3) - WATCH.

Southeast & Border

Napoleon (6-0) at Michigan Center (5-1) - WATCH

Napoleon has won 16 straight regular-season games and can earn a share of the Cascades Conference East title tonight after winning the formerly one-division league last season on the way to the Division 7 Semifinals. The Pirates are 18-1 since missing the 2021 playoffs despite finishing 6-3. Michigan Center is quite a story as well. The Cardinals finished 4-5 a year ago and lost four Cascades games, but all by seven points or fewer – including by only two, 29-27, to the Pirates. Michigan Center fell to Jackson Lumen Christi to start this fall, but has not lost since and last week avenged a 2022 defeat to Grass Lake. The Cardinals too would earn a share of the East title with a win in this one. 

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Jackson (4-2) at Chelsea (5-1) - WATCH, Union City (5-1) at Petersburg Summerfield (4-2) - WATCH, Grass Lake (4-2) at Manchester (5-1) - WATCH, Hastings (4-2) at Parma Western (6-0).

Southwest Corridor

Portage Northern (6-0) at Portage Central (5-1) - WATCH

This annual rivalry game will mean as much as ever with these two entering both undefeated in Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference play at this late of a date for the first time in decades. The lone loss this season between them was Central’s to Division 3 No. 3 Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central in Week 2, and the Mustangs do own a win over Division 2 No. 10 East Lansing. Northern has won four of the last five of these matchups, however, including 25-22 a year ago.  

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Battle Creek Pennfield (3-3) at Battle Creek Harper Creek (4-2), Schoolcraft (5-1) at Lawton (5-1) - WATCH, Cassopolis (3-3) at White Pigeon (6-0) - WATCH. SATURDAY Kalamazoo United (4-2) at Constantine (5-1).

Upper Peninsula

Negaunee (5-1) at Menominee (6-0)

Menominee passed its first major Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper test last week, getting by Gladstone 44-26. Next up is the reigning champion, and the Miners’ lone defeat this fall was to Gladstone 42-14 in Week 2. Although the Maroons were still playing in the Great Northern Conference last season, these two did face off, with Negaunee a 44-0 Division 6 District Final winner on the way to Ford Field. The Miners’ defense has strengthened substantially since that Gladstone loss at the start of September – they’ve allowed just 35 points over their last four games – but the challenge will be on as Menominee is averaging 50 points per game in league play and had given up just six total before last week.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Petoskey (4-2) at Marquette (3-2) - WATCH, Houghton (2-4) at Gladstone (4-2) - WATCH. SATURDAY Lakeview (2-4) at Manistique (3-3) - WATCH, Bark River-Harris (3-3) at West Iron County (1-4) - WATCH.

West Michigan

Howard City Tri County (6-0) at Big Rapids (5-1) - WATCH

While the Ottawa-Kent Conference divisions are still sorting themselves out a bit more with some major matchups this weekend (see below), the Central State Activities Association Gold will be decided at least in part tonight with these two undefeated in league play and this Big Rapids’ league finale. This matchup helped decide the Gold title last year as well; Big Rapids’ 27-26 win resulted in a three-way shared championship between these two and Reed City. This meeting could be close again and similarly low-scoring – Big Rapids is giving up 12 per game in league play, and Tri County is allowing just less than 13.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grand Rapids Catholic Central (5-1) at Ada Forest Hills Eastern (5-1) - WATCH, Grand Rapids West Catholic (6-0) at Allendale (5-1), Grandville (5-1) at Caledonia (5-1), Muskegon (4-2) at Zeeland West (6-0) - WATCH.

8-Player

Climax-Scotts (6-0) at Mendon (5-1) - WATCH

Mendon has had little time to rebound from last week’s 73-20 loss to Adrian Lenawee Christian, with the Southern Central Athletic Association West title to be decided at least in part tonight as the winner of this matchup locks up a share of the league title. Climax-Scotts is seeking its first conference championship in 8-player and has finished a runner-up twice over four seasons. This will also be the first time these two are facing off in league play in this format, although the Hornets won a Division 2 playoff matchup 44-18 last October.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Alcona (5-1) at Au Gres-Sims (6-0) - WATCH, Gobles (5-1) at Bridgman (6-0), Grandville Calvin Christian (4-2) at Marcellus (5-1) - WATCH, Pickford (6-0) at Norway (5-1) - WATCH.

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PHOTO Ada Forest Hills Eastern, on defense, takes on Grand Rapids Catholic Central this week coming off a 28-14 win over Wayland. (Photo by Michigan Sports Photo.)