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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '18

October 21, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

For a fading moment, we thought we saw the Big Dipper floating through the second floor of the MHSAA office Sunday morning.

Michigan’s northernmost high school in Calumet held the handle – but the only place the rest of the Region pointed was to questions about how we could come up with such a disjointed scenario for this season’s Division 6 Playoffs.

Below – as has become an annual tradition – we’ll answer that question and a few more about this year’s selection process.

Our mission Sunday was to map 213 automatic qualifiers for 11-player football – and a record 43 additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 records – plus our top 32 8-player teams across 10 divisions of playoffs that will conclude with the latter Nov. 17 at Northern Michigan University and 11-player Nov. 23-24 at Ford Field.

As often noted in the past, this process didn’t start Sunday morning – but months and in some cases more than a year ago when athletic directors began scheduling games for this fall. We make sure all are loaded into our system by early summer, and then follow every score/cancellation/forfeit/additional change through Week 9’s final games – including this season those for 46 teams from other states or Ontario that played Michigan schools and needed to be followed as well because their successes affected MHSAA teams’ strengths of schedule.

Now that the maps are drawn, we line up all that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal sites and continuing our work with our Finals hosts to create memorable experiences as teams play for championships.

So we’re off. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2018.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, and in 2017 a second division of 8-player football was introduced.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

As noted above, this season there were 213 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 43 additional qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so with those five we added 13 teams from Class A and B and 12 from Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The 8-player process is different for team selection and similar for designation of Regionals. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 (or in 8-player, 16) dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2018

We always start with CONGRATULATIONS: And this season they go first to Detroit Community, Detroit Public Safety Academy and Dexter, which made the MHSAA Football Playoffs for the first time. Of 611 football varsities across the state, all but 12 have made the playoffs at least once. Rockford missed out on an automatic bid with a Week 9 loss, but received an additional qualifier berth to set the record by making the MHSAA Playoffs for the 24th straight season. Crystal Falls Forest Park (22 seasons), Stevensville Lakeshore (21), Macomb Dakota (18), Climax-Scotts (16) and Grand Rapids West Catholic (16) also extended their stays on the list for longest MHSAA playoff streaks.

Break the tie: We again had to break a tie (actually two for District rounds) as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Our tie-breaks this season both took place in Division 4 – Grand Rapids South Christian received a home game against Wyoming Godwin Heights this week and St. Clair will host North Branch if they meet in a District Final. There are more possible meetings of teams with same averages in later rounds, and those ties will be broken the same way.

What is up with Division 6: Last year I had a “worst map ever,” and two of them this year would be in contention. Division 6 is the first – but the explanation for how we came up with what we did is simple. Region 1 is made up of two Districts with six schools from the northern Lower Peninsula and two from the Upper Peninsula. So however the Districts were sliced, two Lower Peninsula schools had to go with the U.P. And we settled this one strictly by comparing highway mileages of those Lower Peninsula teams to Mackinac Bridge (again, the only way to travel between the peninsulas). In the end, we placed Elk Rapids (93 miles) and Traverse City St. Francis (124) with Escanaba and Ishpeming Westwood because they are closest to the Bridge – followed by Kingsley (126), Maple City Glen Lake (144), Beaverton (161) and Tawas (168). The optics are strange – it may look like Glen Lake is driving past Elk Rapids and St. Francis on the way to Beaverton this week and potentially Tawas next. But Glen Lake’s route still travels south of those two schools this week (and depending on its chosen route on the way to Tawas as well), making everything fit – strangely looking, but nonetheless.

Lake Huron tour: You could see most of the American side by checking out this week’s Region 2 games in 8-player Division 2. This map also looks odd – there’s a bridge crossing and a drive around Saginaw Bay. Yet, after drawing this at least two more ways, we settled here – although Region 2 looks a little odd, all four teams are east of I-75 and north of Bay City.

Get your zoom on: We don’t enjoy splitting up teams that live next door to each other, but sometimes it’s a must. In Division 7 we were able to keep all eight Detroit-area and southeastern schools in Region 4, but the distance between its Districts came down to a few miles along I-96. In Division 2, we had to factor in outliers Port Huron Northern and Temperance Bedford – and the resulting Districts ended up splitting Livonia Churchill and Livonia Franklin.

At the end of the day …

I include this every year, but we draw the maps not knowing which schools are represented by the dots. At one point Sunday morning, I was wrong about which division we were considering at the time – and that’s a good thing. For the map drawing portion, it doesn’t matter.

But now that we know who is going where, here’s a glance at some stories that might emerge this week:

• We’ve got rivalries, like Portage Northern at Portage Central and Birmingham Groves at Birmingham Seaholm in Division 2, St. Johns at DeWitt and Haslett at East Lansing in Division 3, Constantine at Schoolcraft in Division 6 and Waterford Our Lady at Clarkston Everest Collegiate in Division 8 – plus Kingston at Deckerville in 8-player Division 1. There are many more we could mention – and some potential feuds renewed in two weeks as well depending on who wins this round.

• The Macomb Area Red, generally considered one of the strongest leagues annually in the state, sent four of six teams to the Division 1 playoffs – and they’re all in the same District. Champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-0) takes on Utica Eisenhower this week, and with a win would face either Macomb Dakota or Romeo after defeating both by just seven points during the regular season.

• Perhaps the most intriguing opener statewide is River Rouge (8-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (7-2) in Division 3. Neither gets tested much during their league seasons, but both played tough nonleague opponents and the winner will be considered a favorite to make it to Ford Field.

• Farmington Hills Harrison holds the records for most MHSAA Finals appearances (18) and titles (13) and will play its final playoffs in Division 4 after finishing Division 3 runner-up a year ago. The school is closing next spring. Coach John Herrington is the winningest in state history with 441 wins and counting against only 111 losses (and a tie).

• There are a few annual powers not in the bracket this season – most notably Lowell, Muskegon Catholic Central and Menominee – and others like Rockford, Mendon and Grand Rapids West Catholic got in as additional qualifiers. West Catholic has won five straight Division 5 championships and opens at Hudsonville Unity Christian. The Falcons won the 2013 title after also entering as a 5-4 team.

• There are 34 teams entering the playoffs unbeaten, but only four Districts have multiple – Manistee and Reed City share one in Division 5, Traverse City St. Francis and Calumet in Division 6, Reading and Ottawa Lake Whiteford in Division 8, and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian and Morrice in 8-player Division 1. All of those potential matchups would happen in 11-Player District or 8-Player Regional Finals.

• This will be the eighth year of the 8-player tournament, and in Division 1 only Deckerville in 2012 has won an MHSAA championship in this format. In Division 2, reigning champion Crystal Falls Forest Park opens with 2015-16 back-to-back champion Powers North Central.

• In 8-player, three teams with 5-4 records didn’t make the field of 32, and two teams with 4-5 records advanced. This is the reality of measuring by playoff point average. Fife Lake Forest Area and Webberville are the 4-5 teams, and their opponents this season won more than 61 percent of their games. The three teams at 5-4 and one at 4-4 had opponents’ winning percentages between 38-56 percent.

Every school and every community can tell a story of making these playoffs, and over the next five weeks the fortunate will continue to write chapters filled with moments that will never be forgotten. We’re looking forward to watching them all unfold.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 6 map shows an odd-looking scenario with two Traverse City-area teams in the same District as two from the Upper Peninsula. (Middle) The 8-player Division 2 map shows how schools are connected to a District along the Lake Huron shoreline.

Marquette's Grant Simon (2) finds a hole to pick up several yards against Gaylord.

1st & Goal: 2024 Week 3 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 16, 2024

What a difference a year can make.

MI Student AidWe are only one-third through the 2024 football regular season, and already several teams are outperforming how they finished a year ago – or are on the verge of doing so.

After a maximum of only three games played, 25 teams statewide have guaranteed they’ll finish with better records this fall than in 2023. Another 54 teams already have as many wins this fall as they had all of last season – and we note several of both groups below in this week’s review.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Grand Blanc 22, Saginaw Heritage 21 Heritage’s emergence the last few seasons has made a powerful Saginaw Valley League Red even more competitive, and the title this season could be up for grabs until the end. Grand Blanc (2-1) sits atop the standings at 2-0 in league play thanks in part to Nate Szczembara blocking what would have been a winning Heritage field goal on this game’s last play. Click for more from WJRT.

Watch list Midland Dow 28, Mount Pleasant 7 After tough opening losses to two strong opponents, Dow (1-2) got its first win over another annual playoff qualifier, the reigning SVL Blue champion Oilers (1-2), who had defeated the Chargers 42-7 a year ago.

On the move Chesaning 47, New Lothrop 22 The reigning Mid-Michigan Activities Conference champion improved to 3-0 by doubling up last season’s league runner-up Hornets (1-2). Montrose 20, Durand 14 Staying the MMAC, Montrose (2-1) now might be Chesaning’s top challenger after defeating a Durand team (2-1) that was coming off a win over New Lothrop in Week 2. Frankenmuth 48, Alma 7 Frankenmuth (3-0) became the 14th program on record to reach 500 wins, this one making the Eagles 500-165-4 since the school opened in 1956.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 42, Grand Rapids Catholic Central 0 Notre Dame Prep already was considered among the elite in Division 5 this season, entering the weekend ranked No. 3 in the coaches poll. But the Fighting Irish (3-0) may now be the favorites after this stunning win over the top-ranked and reigning champion Cougars (2-1) – which followed NDP’s Week 2 victory over 2023 Division 7 champion Jackson Lumen Christi. Click for more from the Detroit News.

Watch list Rochester Adams 21, West Bloomfield 14 Ryland Watters scored twice during the second half and Adams (3-0) stopped West Bloomfield’s final rally six yards from a potential tying score to avenge a pair of losses to the Lakers (1-2) from a year ago, including in their District opener.

On the move Warren De La Salle Collegiate 38, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 28 De La Salle (3-0) withstood a challenge from an improved St. Mary’s team (2-1) to set up this week’s meeting with reigning Catholic High School League Central champion Toledo Central Catholic. Detroit Catholic Central 45, Harper Woods 12 The Shamrocks (3-1) also continued to impress, scoring the most points that reigning Division 4 champion Harper Woods (1-2) had given up since 2021. Sterling Heights Stevenson 24, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 7 After two straight sub-.500 seasons (although Stevenson did make the playoffs last year at 4-5), the Titans are 3-0 for the first time since 2009 after avenging a pair of losses to Chippewa Valley (1-2) from a year ago.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Brighton 29, Northville 28 (2OT) Brighton (2-1) was another team to avenge a pair of 2023 losses during Week 3, after falling to Northville during both the regular season and Division 1 playoffs last fall. Northville (1-2) is the reigning Kensington Lakes Activities Association West champion, but the Bulldogs are one of three teams atop the standings early this fall thanks to winning this one on a double-overtime 2-point conversion. Click for more from the Livingston Daily Press & Argus.

Watch list Olivet 7, Lansing Sexton 0 The Eagles (2-1) bounced back from a Week 2 loss to Portland to avenge a 48-12 loss to Sexton (1-2) from a year ago – and pull within one more win of equaling last season’s victory total.

On the move Corunna 49, Ortonville Brandon 21 The Cavaliers (3-0) graduated some serious star power in the spring but just keep grinding, with this league-opening double-up of Brandon (2-1) extending their regular-season win streak to 12. East Lansing 38, Grand Ledge 21 East Lansing’s speed is immediately obvious and stunning, and the Trojans (2-1) bounced back from a Week 2 loss to Hudsonville by pulling away from the physical Comets (2-1) during the second half in front of an overflowing Homecoming crowd. Ithaca 35, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 14 Ithaca (3-0) also gained an important early advantage with a league-opening win, as these two decided last year’s Tri-Valley Conference White title, won by the Yellowjackets.

Suna Chami (13) breaks down the sideline during Dearborn's 28-13 win over Livonia Franklin.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER McBain 29, Beal City 25 McBain (3-0) ended Beal City’s 21-game Highland Conference winning streak, which dated to the start of 2021 and included three wins over the Ramblers. The Aggies (2-1) had defeated McBain 48-7 last season on the way to winning league, District and Regional titles. Click for more from the Cadillac News.

Watch list Ogemaw Heights 12, Gladwin 7 It wouldn’t be stunning if this eventually ends up deciding the Jack Pine Conference Division 1 championship – and it also wouldn’t be stunning if these two end up meeting again in the playoffs, as Ogemaw Heights (3-0) entered the weekend ranked No. 5 in Division 5 and Gladwin (2-1) was No. 8.

On the move LeRoy Pine River 21, Lake City 6 Pine River (1-2) has won only five games combined over the last five seasons, but this one could provide a spark as it was the Bucks’ first over Lake City (1-2) since 2016. Cheboygan 30, Elk Rapids 23 Cheboygan (2-1) is one of the season’s early success stories, as the Chiefs already have bested last year’s 1-8 finish – and with another win can guarantee their most since 2019. Boyne City 45, Charlevoix 21 This was a major victory for Boyne City (2-1) heading into a loaded Northern Michigan Football League Legends schedule, as Charlevoix (1-2) is the reigning champion in the NMFL Leaders and Boyne finished third in the Leaders last season.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Hanover-Horton 49, Grass Lake 21 Hanover-Horton (3-0) continues to look like a team with promising possibilities this fall, and this win was notable for several reasons – it guaranteed the Comets will finish better than last year’s 2-7 record, avenged 32-22 and 28-6 losses to Grass Lake from last season, and came against a Warriors team (2-1) that has finished below .500 only once over the last 22 seasons, according to Michigan-Football.com. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen Patriot.

Watch list Jackson 28, Tecumseh 20 We’ll know more once the Southeastern Conference White schedule gets rolling – Jackson also started 4-1 last season and finished 4-5. But the Vikings are 3-0 after this league opener, and that’s included avenging last year’s loss to Monroe.

On the move Ottawa Lake Whiteford 44, Buchanan 16 This was a solid bounce-back for the Bobcats (2-1) after a Week 2 loss to Ida. Buchanan is 1-2 against an opening schedule of teams that are a combined 7-2. Hudson 16, Ida 8 After a reasonably close opening loss to still-undefeated Fowler, Hudson (2-1) has handed first defeats this season to Dowagiac and now the Bluestreaks (2-1). Michigan Center 14, Jonesville 6 Michigan Center (1-2) was another team with a difficult opening slate, but the Cardinals got on the board with this win over a Jonesville team (1-2) that finished Cascades Conference West runner-up a year ago.

A Traverse City Central ball carrier works to secure possession during a 49-14 loss to Davison.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Constantine 31, Schoolcraft 29 (OT) Constantine (3-0) extended its winning streak in this rivalry to three with a second-straight by one score, stopping Schoolcraft’s 2-point conversion attempt in overtime to finish the victory. Schoolcraft (2-1) had pulled even with 1:09 to play in regulation after the teams traded leads five times. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Watch list Berrien Springs 28, Traverse City St. Francis 14 The Shamrocks (1-2) may have started 0-2 for the second season in a row, but they made a splash by handing the Gladiators (2-1) their first defeat of the season. This one could mean a lot later as well as Berrien Springs works to extend a decade-long playoff streak.

On the move Galesburg-Augusta 17, Allegan 14 With back-to-back wins over Cassopolis and now Allegan (2-1), Galesburg-August (2-1) has equaled its win total of a year ago. Lawton 27, Kalamazoo United 18 Lawton (2-1) was coming off a loss to St. Francis but found its footing in handing United (2-1) its first defeat. Niles 56, Three Rivers 6 Niles (2-1) opened its Wolverine Conference schedule with a 10th-straight league win and has scored at least 49 points in all 10.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Marquette 30, Gaylord 0 Marquette’s opening statement on this season keeps getting louder, as the Sentinels are up to two losses avenged from a year ago – they fell to Gaylord 37-16 in 2023 – and they have yet to give up a point, outscoring their first three opponents by a combined 136-0. The most major test yet is coming up, as Marquette travels to Lowell this week. Click for more from the Marquette Mining Journal.

Watch list Gwinn 33, L’Anse 6 Gwinn (2-1) had only four wins over the last three seasons combined, and both last year against the same opponent. But the Modeltowners opened this fall by avenging a 2023 loss to Bridgeport and have now equaled last season’s total of two victories – with plenty of opportunities to add to that coming up.

On the move Negaunee 29, Calumet 0 The Miners (3-0) will head into this week’s major clash with Kingsford coming off their first shutout of the season having stopped a Copper Kings offense that had put up 80 points over two victories to start the fall. Houghton 38, Hancock 16 The Gremlins (1-2) have won three straight over their neighbors and will see Hancock (1-2) again in the regular-season finale. Menominee 58, Ishpeming Westwood 19 This early surge has played out almost identically to the start of last year’s run to the Division 7 championship game, as Menominee has scored a combined 170 points and given up just 25 over the first three weeks.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Grand Rapids South Christian 41, Grand Rapids West Catholic 38 The Sailors (3-0) will come barreling into the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green schedule this week after a second comeback win and this one against the No. 2-ranked team in Division 5. The Sailors trailed 24-14 at halftime before rallying and sending the Falcons to 1-2. Click for more from FOX 17.

Watch list East Kentwood 41, Caledonia 35 East Kentwood’s anticipated rise may be starting. The Falcons ended a three-game losing streak against Caledonia – and hadn’t scored in their previous two meetings with the Fighting Scots (2-1). East Kentwood (2-1) needs one more win to equal last season’s total.

On the move Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 17, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern 14 This was the closest game these rivals have played since restarting their series, but FHC (3-0) prevailed again to make it 10 wins in 10 meetings since 2016. Hudsonville Unity Christian 44, Ada Forest Hills Eastern 20 Unity Christian (3-0) is on its way back up after winning just three games a year ago. FHE (2-1) had entered the weekend No. 4 in Division 4, one slot ahead of the Crusaders. Big Rapids 33, Reed City 14 This matchup played a big part in deciding the Central State Activities Association Gold title a year ago, and could again with reigning co-champion Big Rapids (2-1) in a good spot after handing Reed City (2-1) a first loss.

8-Player

HEADLINER Climax-Scotts 56, Adrian Lenawee Christian 35 Lenawee Christian (1-2) jumped out to a 14-0 lead, but Climax-Scotts (2-1) took over from there to avenge last season’s 56-16 Regional Final loss to the eventual Division 2 champion. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.

Watch list Ishpeming 50, Gaylord St. Mary 28 It’s been common to see traditionally strong 11-player programs move to 8-player and find immediate success, and Ishpeming looks like it could be the next. The Hematites were 7-4 in 11-player last season and are off to a 2-0 start with this win over playoff regular St. Mary (2-1).

On the move Crystal Falls Forest Park 42, Norway 20 The Trojans (3-0) ended a string of two straight losses to the Knights (2-1), and after falling to them 40-6 last season. Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian 46, Bridgman 38 A week after Bridgman’s 35-game winning streak ended, NorthPointe (2-1) handed the Bees (1-2) a second-straight defeat, avenging last year’s 28-8 loss. Portland St. Patrick 56, Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 49 The Shamrocks (3-0) had lost to Sacred Heart the last two seasons, including by just a point a year ago. Vestaburg 38, Carson City-Crystal 30 Vestaburg ended its 21-game losing streak, and against a league champion from 2023.

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PHOTOS (Top) Marquette's Grant Simon (2) finds a hole to pick up several yards against Gaylord. (Middle) Suna Chami (13) breaks down the sideline during Dearborn's 28-13 win over Livonia Franklin. (Below) A Traverse City Central ball carrier works to secure possession during a 49-14 loss to Davison. (Top photo by Cara Kamps, middle photo by Douglas Bargerstock, below photo by Terry Lyons.)