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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '18

October 21, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

For a fading moment, we thought we saw the Big Dipper floating through the second floor of the MHSAA office Sunday morning.

Michigan’s northernmost high school in Calumet held the handle – but the only place the rest of the Region pointed was to questions about how we could come up with such a disjointed scenario for this season’s Division 6 Playoffs.

Below – as has become an annual tradition – we’ll answer that question and a few more about this year’s selection process.

Our mission Sunday was to map 213 automatic qualifiers for 11-player football – and a record 43 additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 records – plus our top 32 8-player teams across 10 divisions of playoffs that will conclude with the latter Nov. 17 at Northern Michigan University and 11-player Nov. 23-24 at Ford Field.

As often noted in the past, this process didn’t start Sunday morning – but months and in some cases more than a year ago when athletic directors began scheduling games for this fall. We make sure all are loaded into our system by early summer, and then follow every score/cancellation/forfeit/additional change through Week 9’s final games – including this season those for 46 teams from other states or Ontario that played Michigan schools and needed to be followed as well because their successes affected MHSAA teams’ strengths of schedule.

Now that the maps are drawn, we line up all that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal sites and continuing our work with our Finals hosts to create memorable experiences as teams play for championships.

So we’re off. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2018.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, and in 2017 a second division of 8-player football was introduced.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

As noted above, this season there were 213 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 43 additional qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so with those five we added 13 teams from Class A and B and 12 from Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The 8-player process is different for team selection and similar for designation of Regionals. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 (or in 8-player, 16) dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2018

We always start with CONGRATULATIONS: And this season they go first to Detroit Community, Detroit Public Safety Academy and Dexter, which made the MHSAA Football Playoffs for the first time. Of 611 football varsities across the state, all but 12 have made the playoffs at least once. Rockford missed out on an automatic bid with a Week 9 loss, but received an additional qualifier berth to set the record by making the MHSAA Playoffs for the 24th straight season. Crystal Falls Forest Park (22 seasons), Stevensville Lakeshore (21), Macomb Dakota (18), Climax-Scotts (16) and Grand Rapids West Catholic (16) also extended their stays on the list for longest MHSAA playoff streaks.

Break the tie: We again had to break a tie (actually two for District rounds) as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Our tie-breaks this season both took place in Division 4 – Grand Rapids South Christian received a home game against Wyoming Godwin Heights this week and St. Clair will host North Branch if they meet in a District Final. There are more possible meetings of teams with same averages in later rounds, and those ties will be broken the same way.

What is up with Division 6: Last year I had a “worst map ever,” and two of them this year would be in contention. Division 6 is the first – but the explanation for how we came up with what we did is simple. Region 1 is made up of two Districts with six schools from the northern Lower Peninsula and two from the Upper Peninsula. So however the Districts were sliced, two Lower Peninsula schools had to go with the U.P. And we settled this one strictly by comparing highway mileages of those Lower Peninsula teams to Mackinac Bridge (again, the only way to travel between the peninsulas). In the end, we placed Elk Rapids (93 miles) and Traverse City St. Francis (124) with Escanaba and Ishpeming Westwood because they are closest to the Bridge – followed by Kingsley (126), Maple City Glen Lake (144), Beaverton (161) and Tawas (168). The optics are strange – it may look like Glen Lake is driving past Elk Rapids and St. Francis on the way to Beaverton this week and potentially Tawas next. But Glen Lake’s route still travels south of those two schools this week (and depending on its chosen route on the way to Tawas as well), making everything fit – strangely looking, but nonetheless.

Lake Huron tour: You could see most of the American side by checking out this week’s Region 2 games in 8-player Division 2. This map also looks odd – there’s a bridge crossing and a drive around Saginaw Bay. Yet, after drawing this at least two more ways, we settled here – although Region 2 looks a little odd, all four teams are east of I-75 and north of Bay City.

Get your zoom on: We don’t enjoy splitting up teams that live next door to each other, but sometimes it’s a must. In Division 7 we were able to keep all eight Detroit-area and southeastern schools in Region 4, but the distance between its Districts came down to a few miles along I-96. In Division 2, we had to factor in outliers Port Huron Northern and Temperance Bedford – and the resulting Districts ended up splitting Livonia Churchill and Livonia Franklin.

At the end of the day …

I include this every year, but we draw the maps not knowing which schools are represented by the dots. At one point Sunday morning, I was wrong about which division we were considering at the time – and that’s a good thing. For the map drawing portion, it doesn’t matter.

But now that we know who is going where, here’s a glance at some stories that might emerge this week:

• We’ve got rivalries, like Portage Northern at Portage Central and Birmingham Groves at Birmingham Seaholm in Division 2, St. Johns at DeWitt and Haslett at East Lansing in Division 3, Constantine at Schoolcraft in Division 6 and Waterford Our Lady at Clarkston Everest Collegiate in Division 8 – plus Kingston at Deckerville in 8-player Division 1. There are many more we could mention – and some potential feuds renewed in two weeks as well depending on who wins this round.

• The Macomb Area Red, generally considered one of the strongest leagues annually in the state, sent four of six teams to the Division 1 playoffs – and they’re all in the same District. Champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-0) takes on Utica Eisenhower this week, and with a win would face either Macomb Dakota or Romeo after defeating both by just seven points during the regular season.

• Perhaps the most intriguing opener statewide is River Rouge (8-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (7-2) in Division 3. Neither gets tested much during their league seasons, but both played tough nonleague opponents and the winner will be considered a favorite to make it to Ford Field.

• Farmington Hills Harrison holds the records for most MHSAA Finals appearances (18) and titles (13) and will play its final playoffs in Division 4 after finishing Division 3 runner-up a year ago. The school is closing next spring. Coach John Herrington is the winningest in state history with 441 wins and counting against only 111 losses (and a tie).

• There are a few annual powers not in the bracket this season – most notably Lowell, Muskegon Catholic Central and Menominee – and others like Rockford, Mendon and Grand Rapids West Catholic got in as additional qualifiers. West Catholic has won five straight Division 5 championships and opens at Hudsonville Unity Christian. The Falcons won the 2013 title after also entering as a 5-4 team.

• There are 34 teams entering the playoffs unbeaten, but only four Districts have multiple – Manistee and Reed City share one in Division 5, Traverse City St. Francis and Calumet in Division 6, Reading and Ottawa Lake Whiteford in Division 8, and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian and Morrice in 8-player Division 1. All of those potential matchups would happen in 11-Player District or 8-Player Regional Finals.

• This will be the eighth year of the 8-player tournament, and in Division 1 only Deckerville in 2012 has won an MHSAA championship in this format. In Division 2, reigning champion Crystal Falls Forest Park opens with 2015-16 back-to-back champion Powers North Central.

• In 8-player, three teams with 5-4 records didn’t make the field of 32, and two teams with 4-5 records advanced. This is the reality of measuring by playoff point average. Fife Lake Forest Area and Webberville are the 4-5 teams, and their opponents this season won more than 61 percent of their games. The three teams at 5-4 and one at 4-4 had opponents’ winning percentages between 38-56 percent.

Every school and every community can tell a story of making these playoffs, and over the next five weeks the fortunate will continue to write chapters filled with moments that will never be forgotten. We’re looking forward to watching them all unfold.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 6 map shows an odd-looking scenario with two Traverse City-area teams in the same District as two from the Upper Peninsula. (Middle) The 8-player Division 2 map shows how schools are connected to a District along the Lake Huron shoreline.

Detroit Cass Tech’s Alex Graham pulls away for a touchdown against Detroit Martin Luther King at Ford Field.

1st & Goal: 2024 Week 8 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 21, 2024

This forecast for late October never fails:

MI Student AidAs expected, championships were celebrated and big playoff pushes were made all over the state during Week 8 of another football regular season that will be over by this time next week. 

This week's "Review" details several of those league races now decided, but also the movements of several teams in, or out, of the potential playoff field as we inch closer to Sunday's selection announcement. 

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Frankenmuth 21, Freeland 20 Frankenmuth (8-0) clinched the Tri-Valley Conference Red title and extended its league winning streak to 66 games, but with Freeland (7-1) providing one of the strongest challenges to the decade-plus run. Logan Diener’s second touchdown, with 3:58 to play, and Aiden Labissoniere’s go-ahead extra point helped put the game, and title, away. Click for more from the Saginaw News.

Watch list Grand Blanc 55, Davison 49 Grand Blanc (7-1) finished a perfect run through the Saginaw Valley League Red by handing Davison its lone Valley loss, although the Cardinals (6-2) finish with Lapeer this week. The Bobcats’ championship was their first since 2021 and came after finishing second to Davison a year ago.

On the move Goodrich 42, Fenton 3 Goodrich (7-1) won the overall Flint Metro League championship game and in doing so handed the Tigers (7-1) their first loss, finished a run of reaching 42 points in all seven league games and gave up a total of 45 points to Metro opponents. Ubly 30, Cass City 12 No one should have thought Ubly (5-3) was going away quietly with its 0-3 start this fall after last season’s Division 8 championship. Those first three opponents are a combined 23-1, and the Bearcats are up to No. 19 on the Division 8 playoff point list. Midland Dow 23, Lapeer 14 Dow (5-3) has won five of its last six games to jump into the Division 2 playoff picture for the first time this season, moving up seven spots to No. 26 while sending Lapeer to 5-3 and the No. 24 position on the Division 1 list.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Detroit Cass Tech 30, Detroit Martin Luther King 14 Cass Tech (6-2) again broke the recent trend in this rivalry, taking the Detroit Public School Blue City championship after King won their first meeting this season and finished with the PSL Blue regular-season title. It was the second time in three years the Technicians have avenged a King loss from a month earlier, and also only the second time in five years that the winner of the first matchup didn’t finish with a sweep. Cass Tech’s Alex Graham scored on a kickoff return and catching a pass as the Technicians reached the end zone three times through the air. Click for more from the Detroit News.

Watch list Detroit Central 22, Detroit Denby 18 Central (6-2) has won six straight games and avenged a pair of losses from last season to Denby (5-3) to take the PSL Gold City championship after these two shared the regular-season title. The Trail Blazers gave up six points total with four shutouts over five division games and cooled a Denby offense that was averaging 33 points per game.

On the move Gibraltar Carlson 42, Allen Park 0 Carlson (7-1) clinched a share of the Downriver League title, its fourth straight, with Allen Park (6-2) holding out hope for a share as well if Lincoln Park can catch the Marauders this week. Clarkston Everest Collegiate 42, Royal Oak Shrine Catholic 3 The Mountaineers (8-0) finished off an outright title run in the Catholic High School League Intersectional #2, their second straight as they ran their league game winning streak to 12 with a seventh in a row over Shrine (6-2) – which has guaranteed its best record since 2020. Belleville 31, Dearborn Fordson 0 Belleville (8-0) closed out an eighth-straight league title by finishing another sweep of the Kensington Lakes Activities Association East, with this the Tigers’ second-straight shutout and third over seven KLAA games. Walled Lake Western 20, Mason 17 Walled Lake Western (8-0) entered the week No. 2 in the Division 3 coaches poll, and Mason (6-2) was No. 6 and had won both matchups with the Warriors last season including in a Regional Final.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Howell 36, Brighton 14 The Highlanders (8-0) completed a KLAA West outright championship, defeating Brighton (6-2) for the second-straight season to avoid what would have been a shared league title with the Bulldogs. Justin Jones ran for three touchdowns and caught a fourth to pace Howell, which faces Belleville this week in the overall KLAA championship game. Click for more from the Livingston Daily Press & Argus.

Watch list Portland 33, Lansing Sexton 0 Portland coach John Novara reached 200 career wins as the Raiders (8-0) finished another perfect run through the Capital Area Activities Conference White, extending their league game winning streak to 20. The shutout kept Portland at No. 9 on the Division 4 playoff list and Sexton (4-4) just outside the field at No. 34.

On the move Clare 54, Pinconning 28 After sharing the Jack Pine Conference Division 1 title, Clare (7-1) won this matchup with JPC Division 2 runner-up Pinconning (5-3) to move up to No. 11 on the Division 5 playoff list. Ionia 16, St. Johns 13 After this close win over St. Johns (5-3), the Bulldogs (5-3) are a win away from guaranteeing their best record since 2013 with rival Lake Odessa Lakewood up next. Olivet 27, Lansing Catholic 14 Olivet has two wins over Lansing Catholic (5-3) in two seasons in the CAAC White, with this one giving the Eagles (6-2) second place in the league and sending the Cougars into a tie for third.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER East Jordan 33, Frankfort 6 This could pay off in multiple ways for East Jordan (6-2). The Red Devils can continue to hold out hope of a title share in the Northern Michigan Football League Legacy (if Mancelona defeats first-place Maple City Glen Lake this week), and East Jordan also jumped past Frankfort on the Division 8 playoff list after trailing the Panthers (6-2) by one position entering Friday. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Watch list Ogemaw Heights 64, Harrison 28 The JPC Division 1 co-champion Ogemaw Heights (7-1) handed Division 2 winner Harrison (7-1) its first loss and scored a season high in bouncing back from a Week 6 defeat to Standish-Sterling.

On the move Boyne City 36, Oscoda 0 Boyne City (6-2) has climbed the Division 6 playoff list for the fourth-straight week, this time up to No. 18 while sending Oscoda (5-3) down only two slots to No. 30 in Division 7. Maple City Glen Lake 32, Saginaw Valley Lutheran 13 Glen Lake (7-1) has put together its best season since 2019 and heads into a potential outright league title clincher after a solid win over the Chargers (4-4). Manistee 65, Montague 32 Manistee (5-4) moved up from No. 30 to 24 on the Division 6 playoff list and moved Montague (3-5) from 31 to just outside the field at No. 33.

Grand Blanc’s Caseton Sendry (18) eludes a pair of Davison defenders.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Hudson 22, Clinton 6 Hudson (7-1) has a share of the Lenawee County Athletic Association championship and winless Hillsdale to play this week to make it outright, while Clinton and Ida are tied for second and likely the newest Hillsdale fans. Clinton (6-2) had won 24 straight LCAA games and the last two league titles. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

Watch list Ottawa Lake Whiteford 30, White Pigeon 16 On paper, Whiteford (4-4) has had a tougher run than usual this fall. But its losses are to teams that are a combined 31-2, and the Bobcats are up to No. 21 on the Division 7 playoff list after handing White Pigeon (7-1) its lone defeat.

On the move Hanover-Horton 28, Brooklyn Columbia Central 19 The Cascades Conference West title belongs entirely to Hanover-Horton (8-0) as the Comets clinched it outright in sending Columbia Central (3-5) into third place and avoiding a potential three-team share. Grass Lake 28, Leslie 7 Leslie (7-1) already had the Cascades Conference East outright title in hand, but this is major win for Grass Lake (5-3) nonetheless as it bumped the Warriors up four spots to No. 37 on the Division 6 playoff list. Chelsea 21, Trenton 20 Division 4 contender Chelsea (7-1) needed a score during the final minutes to get past the Trojans (5-3), who remain No. 11 on the Division 3 playoff list.

Southwest Border

HEADLINER Kalamazoo United 35, Parchment 13 In a matchup of tough defenses, United’s was able to hold its ground most and slowed a Parchment offense that was averaging 42 points per game. In doing so, the Titans (7-1) clinched the outright Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore championship, sending the Panthers (6-2) to second place with their only league defeat. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Watch list Mattawan 42, Kalamazoo Central 20 Over the last two weeks, Mattawan (5-3) has defeated leaders of both the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West and now East, in the process jumping from No. 39 two weeks ago to No. 22 on the Division 2 playoff list. Central (5-3) is tied for first in the East and plays Loy Norrix this week for that outright title.

On the move Decatur 18, Hopkins 0 Decatur (7-1) may have fallen eight points shy of catching champion White Pigeon in the Southwest 10 Conference, but it earned this win over Ottawa-Kent Conference Silver co-leader Hopkins (6-2) to guarantee its winningest season since 2014. Portage Northern 45, Kalamazoo Loy Norrix 0 The SMAC West could send four of its five teams to the playoffs, with this win over the Knights (5-3) bumping Northern (5-3) up to No. 21 on the Division 2 playoff list. Lawton 26, Saugatuck 10 Lawton (6-2) concluded the SAC Valley schedule by winning this matchup for second in the standings, further solidifying itself in the middle of the Division 7 field while Saugatuck (5-3) occupies the same in Division 8.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Kingsford 13, Menominee 12 This season’s Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper race couldn’t have been much closer, with champion Kingsford (8-0) edging Menominee (7-1) this time to go with its two-point win over Negaunee in Week 4. The Flivvers will face Marquette this week as they play for a perfect regular season. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Watch list Calumet 19, Gladstone 6 While just a notch below contending in the Copper, Calumet (5-3) gave Kingsford a 14-point game in Week 5 and won its three games since. The Copper Kings climbed the Division 6 playoff list for the third straight week, now to No. 26.

On the move Iron Mountain 42, Manistique 21 The Mountaineers (8-0) pulled within a win of a potential second-straight undefeated regular season. L’Anse 40, Gwinn 22 L’Anse not only reversed a 33-6 loss to Gwinn from Week 3, but ended a 15-game losing streak stretching back to 2022. Marquette 41, Cadillac 32 The Sentinels (6-2) bounced back from a heartbreaker against Petoskey to surpass last year’s victory total. Despite the loss, Cadillac (4-4) actually moved up a spot on the Division 3 playoff list, to No. 27.

East Grand Rapids’ Carson Thornton (8) finds a gap in the Grand Rapids Catholic Central defense.

West  Michigan

HEADLINER Grand Rapids West Catholic 54, Hamilton 14 After edging Ada Forest Hills Eastern by a point to take over first place alone in the O-K White in Week 7, West Catholic (6-2) sent Hamilton into third place and clinched the outright championship – its second straight after winning the O-K Blue outright last season. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Watch list Byron Center 17, Muskegon 14 With Byron Center’s move into the O-K Green this season, these two met for the first time since 2017 – and the Bulldogs (7-1) put a serious dent in the reigning Division 2 champion’s hopes of extending its playoff qualification streak that began in 2000.  

On the move Grand Rapids Northview 35, Holland Christian 20 Northview (8-0) finished an outright title run in the O-K Black while sending Holland Christian to 6-2. East Grand Rapids 31, Grand Rapids Catholic Central 28 East Grand Rapids (5-3) made second place in the O-K Black a three-team share with this win over the Cougars (5-3) in their first meeting since 2016. Big Rapids 24, Coopersville 7 Fresh off wrapping up a league title in Week 7, Big Rapids (7-1) handed a loss to River Cities Alliance co-leader Coopersville (5-3), which plays Cedar Springs this week for a potential outright league title.

8-Player

HEADLINER Climax-Scotts 46, Mendon 44 The Panthers (7-1) are outright Southern Central Athletic Association Red champions after handing the lone loss this fall to Mendon (7-1), with Jackson Bagwell scoring on a four-yard run and adding the winning 2-point conversion run with 55 seconds to play. Climax-Scotts scored first, and the teams then traded touchdowns all the way until the Panthers scored last. Click for more from WWMT.

Watch list Bay City All Saints 61, Kinde North Huron 22 The Cougars’ only loss this season came in Week 1 – to still-undefeated Deckerville – and they are Big Thumb Conference Red champions after this impressive winner-take-all performance against former co-leader North Huron (6-2).

On the move Pittsford 46, Waldron 14 The SCAA Blue belongs entirely to Pittsford (7-1), which clinched a share of the championship in Week 7 but needed to get past third-place Waldron (5-3) to finish the perfect run. Pickford 51, Norway 6 Pickford (8-0) clinched a share of the Great Lakes Eight Conference East title in this matchup of previous co-leaders. The Pirates may need to defeat third-place (tied) Munising this week to clinch it outright, with Norway (6-2) hoping to share with a win over the other third-place team, Rudyard, and a Munising victory. Indian River Inland Lakes 64, Bellaire 12 Inland Lakes (8-0) will play co-leader Gaylord St. Mary for the Ski Valley Conference title this week after turning back third-place Bellaire (6-2).

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PHOTOS (Top) Detroit Cass Tech’s Alex Graham pulls away for a touchdown against Detroit Martin Luther King at Ford Field. (Middle) Grand Blanc’s Caseton Sendry (18) eludes a pair of Davison defenders. (Below) East Grand Rapids’ Carson Thornton (8) finds a gap in the Grand Rapids Catholic Central defense. (Top photo by Olivia B. Photography. Grand Blanc/Davison photo by Terry Lyons. EGR/Catholic Central photo by Michigan Sports Photo.)