Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '18

October 21, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

For a fading moment, we thought we saw the Big Dipper floating through the second floor of the MHSAA office Sunday morning.

Michigan’s northernmost high school in Calumet held the handle – but the only place the rest of the Region pointed was to questions about how we could come up with such a disjointed scenario for this season’s Division 6 Playoffs.

Below – as has become an annual tradition – we’ll answer that question and a few more about this year’s selection process.

Our mission Sunday was to map 213 automatic qualifiers for 11-player football – and a record 43 additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 records – plus our top 32 8-player teams across 10 divisions of playoffs that will conclude with the latter Nov. 17 at Northern Michigan University and 11-player Nov. 23-24 at Ford Field.

As often noted in the past, this process didn’t start Sunday morning – but months and in some cases more than a year ago when athletic directors began scheduling games for this fall. We make sure all are loaded into our system by early summer, and then follow every score/cancellation/forfeit/additional change through Week 9’s final games – including this season those for 46 teams from other states or Ontario that played Michigan schools and needed to be followed as well because their successes affected MHSAA teams’ strengths of schedule.

Now that the maps are drawn, we line up all that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal sites and continuing our work with our Finals hosts to create memorable experiences as teams play for championships.

So we’re off. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2018.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, and in 2017 a second division of 8-player football was introduced.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

As noted above, this season there were 213 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 43 additional qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so with those five we added 13 teams from Class A and B and 12 from Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The 8-player process is different for team selection and similar for designation of Regionals. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 (or in 8-player, 16) dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2018

We always start with CONGRATULATIONS: And this season they go first to Detroit Community, Detroit Public Safety Academy and Dexter, which made the MHSAA Football Playoffs for the first time. Of 611 football varsities across the state, all but 12 have made the playoffs at least once. Rockford missed out on an automatic bid with a Week 9 loss, but received an additional qualifier berth to set the record by making the MHSAA Playoffs for the 24th straight season. Crystal Falls Forest Park (22 seasons), Stevensville Lakeshore (21), Macomb Dakota (18), Climax-Scotts (16) and Grand Rapids West Catholic (16) also extended their stays on the list for longest MHSAA playoff streaks.

Break the tie: We again had to break a tie (actually two for District rounds) as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Our tie-breaks this season both took place in Division 4 – Grand Rapids South Christian received a home game against Wyoming Godwin Heights this week and St. Clair will host North Branch if they meet in a District Final. There are more possible meetings of teams with same averages in later rounds, and those ties will be broken the same way.

What is up with Division 6: Last year I had a “worst map ever,” and two of them this year would be in contention. Division 6 is the first – but the explanation for how we came up with what we did is simple. Region 1 is made up of two Districts with six schools from the northern Lower Peninsula and two from the Upper Peninsula. So however the Districts were sliced, two Lower Peninsula schools had to go with the U.P. And we settled this one strictly by comparing highway mileages of those Lower Peninsula teams to Mackinac Bridge (again, the only way to travel between the peninsulas). In the end, we placed Elk Rapids (93 miles) and Traverse City St. Francis (124) with Escanaba and Ishpeming Westwood because they are closest to the Bridge – followed by Kingsley (126), Maple City Glen Lake (144), Beaverton (161) and Tawas (168). The optics are strange – it may look like Glen Lake is driving past Elk Rapids and St. Francis on the way to Beaverton this week and potentially Tawas next. But Glen Lake’s route still travels south of those two schools this week (and depending on its chosen route on the way to Tawas as well), making everything fit – strangely looking, but nonetheless.

Lake Huron tour: You could see most of the American side by checking out this week’s Region 2 games in 8-player Division 2. This map also looks odd – there’s a bridge crossing and a drive around Saginaw Bay. Yet, after drawing this at least two more ways, we settled here – although Region 2 looks a little odd, all four teams are east of I-75 and north of Bay City.

Get your zoom on: We don’t enjoy splitting up teams that live next door to each other, but sometimes it’s a must. In Division 7 we were able to keep all eight Detroit-area and southeastern schools in Region 4, but the distance between its Districts came down to a few miles along I-96. In Division 2, we had to factor in outliers Port Huron Northern and Temperance Bedford – and the resulting Districts ended up splitting Livonia Churchill and Livonia Franklin.

At the end of the day …

I include this every year, but we draw the maps not knowing which schools are represented by the dots. At one point Sunday morning, I was wrong about which division we were considering at the time – and that’s a good thing. For the map drawing portion, it doesn’t matter.

But now that we know who is going where, here’s a glance at some stories that might emerge this week:

• We’ve got rivalries, like Portage Northern at Portage Central and Birmingham Groves at Birmingham Seaholm in Division 2, St. Johns at DeWitt and Haslett at East Lansing in Division 3, Constantine at Schoolcraft in Division 6 and Waterford Our Lady at Clarkston Everest Collegiate in Division 8 – plus Kingston at Deckerville in 8-player Division 1. There are many more we could mention – and some potential feuds renewed in two weeks as well depending on who wins this round.

• The Macomb Area Red, generally considered one of the strongest leagues annually in the state, sent four of six teams to the Division 1 playoffs – and they’re all in the same District. Champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-0) takes on Utica Eisenhower this week, and with a win would face either Macomb Dakota or Romeo after defeating both by just seven points during the regular season.

• Perhaps the most intriguing opener statewide is River Rouge (8-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (7-2) in Division 3. Neither gets tested much during their league seasons, but both played tough nonleague opponents and the winner will be considered a favorite to make it to Ford Field.

• Farmington Hills Harrison holds the records for most MHSAA Finals appearances (18) and titles (13) and will play its final playoffs in Division 4 after finishing Division 3 runner-up a year ago. The school is closing next spring. Coach John Herrington is the winningest in state history with 441 wins and counting against only 111 losses (and a tie).

• There are a few annual powers not in the bracket this season – most notably Lowell, Muskegon Catholic Central and Menominee – and others like Rockford, Mendon and Grand Rapids West Catholic got in as additional qualifiers. West Catholic has won five straight Division 5 championships and opens at Hudsonville Unity Christian. The Falcons won the 2013 title after also entering as a 5-4 team.

• There are 34 teams entering the playoffs unbeaten, but only four Districts have multiple – Manistee and Reed City share one in Division 5, Traverse City St. Francis and Calumet in Division 6, Reading and Ottawa Lake Whiteford in Division 8, and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian and Morrice in 8-player Division 1. All of those potential matchups would happen in 11-Player District or 8-Player Regional Finals.

• This will be the eighth year of the 8-player tournament, and in Division 1 only Deckerville in 2012 has won an MHSAA championship in this format. In Division 2, reigning champion Crystal Falls Forest Park opens with 2015-16 back-to-back champion Powers North Central.

• In 8-player, three teams with 5-4 records didn’t make the field of 32, and two teams with 4-5 records advanced. This is the reality of measuring by playoff point average. Fife Lake Forest Area and Webberville are the 4-5 teams, and their opponents this season won more than 61 percent of their games. The three teams at 5-4 and one at 4-4 had opponents’ winning percentages between 38-56 percent.

Every school and every community can tell a story of making these playoffs, and over the next five weeks the fortunate will continue to write chapters filled with moments that will never be forgotten. We’re looking forward to watching them all unfold.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 6 map shows an odd-looking scenario with two Traverse City-area teams in the same District as two from the Upper Peninsula. (Middle) The 8-player Division 2 map shows how schools are connected to a District along the Lake Huron shoreline.

1st & Goal: 2023 Playoff Week 3 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

November 10, 2023

By Saturday night, the first two MHSAA Football Finals matchups will be decided.

MI Student AidFour 8-Player Semifinals earlier that day will determine which teams advance to play one more time Nov. 18 at Northern Michigan University’s Superior Dome, and we detail this weekend’s matchups below.

We’re also down to the final eight teams in all eight 11-player divisions as Regional championships will determine the 32 that will take another step closer to spending Thanksgiving weekend at Ford Field.

Of 40 games played this weekend, 36 will be broadcast on MHSAA.tv, and continue to monitor the Football Playoff Scoreboard including for 11-Player Semifinal times and locations as those are determined.

8-Player Division 1

Indian River Inland Lakes (10-1) at Pickford (10-1), Saturday - WATCH

Pickford is playing in its first Semifinal since the Division 2 championship season of 2019, and bounced back nicely after losing its Week 9 game 42-10 to St. Ignace with a pair of rematch wins over Rudyard and Norway. Junior Tommy Storey tells it, rushing for 1,851 yards and 31 touchdowns and throwing for 794 and 12, respectively.  Inland Lakes, however, edged St. Ignace 40-36 last week to advance – avenging a Week 4 loss to the Saints – and also is paced by a standout junior run/pass threat. Aidan Fenstermaker has run for 1,567 yards and 23 scores and thrown for 996 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Martin (9-2) at Kingston (9-2), Saturday - WATCH

Martin graduated 11 seniors, including an all-state quarterback, from last season’s Division 1 championship team. But the Clippers are again one step from playing for the title, led by another standout signal-caller. Junior Gavin Meyers has rushed for 1,144 yards and 11 touchdowns and thrown for 787 yards and eight more scores, and Martin is coming off avenging a 37-point Week 4 loss to Gobles with a 28-6 District Final win. Kingston is back in the Semifinals for the first time since 2019, and also having avenged an early defeat (by 18) with a 26-0 District Final win over Brown City. Senior Owen Corlis has piled up 1,412 yards and 23 touchdowns on the ground and connected on 56 percent of his passes with 10 – nearly half of those completions – going for scores. He also has three return TDs.

8-Player Division 2

Lake Linden-Hubbell (8-3) at Marion (10-0), Saturday - WATCH

Marion ran into eventual Division 2 champion Powers North Central in Semifinals the last three seasons, including while also undefeated a year ago, and will attempt to take the next step with a defense that has given up only 40 points over eight games on the field (two wins were by forfeit). Senior Gavin Prielipp is the leading rusher and scored 11 touchdowns rushing, eight receiving, three off interceptions and one apiece on kickoff and punt returns. Lake Linden-Hubbell is making its first Semifinal appearance since 1997 in 11-player and likely will try to break through the Eagles’ wall with senior quarterback Danny Marcotte (1,234 yards/20 TDs rushing ) and senior running back Sam Roberts (1,165/15).

Deckerville (9-2) at Adrian Lenawee Christian (11-0), Saturday - WATCH

Lenawee Christian has topped 60 points for the second time in three seasons, scoring more than 50 in seven games, with a variety of playmakers but quarterback Sam Lutz setting the pace. The senior has thrown for 1,727 yards and 29 touchdowns, rushed for 868 and 24, respectively, and also scored off interception and kickoff returns. Deckerville is one of the original 8-player powers and back in the Semifinals for the first time since 2017 after one-score playoff wins over Morrice and Portland St. Patrick. Junior Hunter Garza quarterbacks an attack that’s run for more than 3,000 yards, while he’s passed for 1,341 and 24 touchdowns.

11-Player Division 1

Davison (11-0) at Rockford (11-0), Saturday - WATCH

It’s difficult to not look ahead, knowing that one of these undefeated teams could next week face two-time reigning Division 1 champion Belleville in a Semifinal – if the Tigers defeat Northville on the other side of the bracket. But Davison and Rockford surely aren’t looking past anything; they last faced off in a 2020 Semifinal, won by the Cardinals, and both are seeking a first Regional title since that season. Both teams are keyed by standout offensive playmakers, and Rockford’s defense has been one of its best over the last decade giving up only 10 points per game despite facing Muskegon, Mona Shores and Caledonia among six playoff teams total during the regular season. The deciding matchup could be the Rams trying to slow down a Davison attack that has scored 44 or more points seven times.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Clarkston (6-5) at Western Bloomfield (9-2) - WATCH, Southfield Arts & Technology (10-1) at Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-2) - WATCH. SATURDAY Northville (10-1) at Belleville (11-0) - WATCH.

11-Player Division 2

Saturday Heritage (9-2) at Muskegon (9-2), Saturday

Muskegon is as close to a regular at this stage of the playoffs as any program in Michigan; the Big Reds will be playing in a Regional Final for the 11th time over the last 12 seasons as they continue to pursue a return trip to Ford Field. Heritage is much newer to the experience after winning its first District title since 2001 – but that just sets up an opportunity to add another incredible chapter to an already memorable run. The Hawks boast the state’s all-time leader in receiving touchdowns in Braylon Isom, who caught his 49th and 50th to tie and break the record in the District Final win. But Heritage also lost standout running back Ty Robertson to injury two weeks ago and now must stop or keep up with a Muskegon offense that’s reached 40 points in five of its last six games.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Byron Center (10-1) at East Lansing (9-2) - WATCH, Roseville (8-3) at Warren De La Salle Collegiate (9-2) - WATCH, Waterford Mott (9-2) at Gibraltar Carlson (10-1) - WATCH.

11-Player Division 3

Mason (11-0) at Walled Lake Western (10-1), Friday - WATCH

The setup for this rematch includes a rare mathematical oddity of the playoff system in that Mason went to Western in Week 8 and won 30-7, and now must return for this Regional Final. Western, with a schedule of mostly Division 2 opponents, has the home game after holding onto the top spot in Division 2 playoff-point average while Mason – playing a Division 3-heavy schedule – finished third on that list. The good news for the Bulldogs, however, is they know they can win this on the road – and the offense is continuing to churn with that first Western matchup the only game over the last six in which Mason didn’t score at least 41 points. That said, we’ve once again seen these playoffs a number of rematches flip, with multiple postseason winners coming back after losing big the first time around.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Gaylord (11-0) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (10-1) - WATCH, Detroit Martin Luther King (6-5) at River Rouge (7-4) - WATCH. SATURDAY Zeeland West (8-3) at Parma Western (10-1).

11-Player Division 4

Portland (11-0) at Niles (10-1), Friday - WATCH

On the surface, this appears to be an undefeated Portland team with seven double-digit win seasons over the last nine, hitting the road seeking to return to the Semifinals after most recently making them in 2021 and 2018, on the way to face an up-and-coming Niles program that just won its first District title. But while all true, Niles is led by coach Scot Shaw, formerly of nearly two decades at Three Rivers and leader of its Division 4 championship team in 2003. He has the Vikings learning this playoff thing fast, but there will be some unfamiliarity regardless because Niles’ first two postseason wins were Wolverine Conference rematches. Portland, under another longtime leader in John Novara, has traveled this path and will be playing in its third-straight Regional Final.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Big Rapids (10-1) at Grand Rapids South Christian (8-3) - WATCH, Haslett (8-3) at Goodrich (10-1) - WATCH. SATURDAY Carleton Airport (10-1) at Harper Woods (8-3).

11-Player Division 5

Grand Rapids Catholic Central (10-1) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (11-0), Friday - WATCH

After playing last season in different divisions, these two are matched up again, and both enter this meeting undefeated against in-state opponents – GRCC’s lone loss came in Week 1 against Chicago Loyola. The challenges otherwise for both have been few. The Cougars defeated reigning Division 4 champion Grand Rapids South Christian 21-12 in Week 8, but have won all of their remaining games by at least 32 points. West Catholic’s 17-14 win over Division 3 Coopersville in Week 3 was its only game closer than 26 points, and the Falcons have given up a combined 13 points over their last five games with two shutouts to start the postseason.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Macomb Lutheran North (9-2) at Corunna (11-0) - WATCH, Flat Rock (8-3) at Detroit Southeastern (8-3). SATURDAY Kingsford (10-1) at Frankenmuth (10-1) - WATCH.

11-Player Division 6

Gladstone (9-2) at Kingsley (9-2), Friday - WATCH

Only eight teams remain in all of these 11-player divisions, and perhaps no division seems wider open than Division 6, with these two on the same side of the bracket with two more that have lost three games this fall. Kingsley won a Regional title as recently as 2019 and is playing in its fourth Regional Final over the last six seasons. Gladstone is playing in a Regional Final for the second straight after losing last year to Negaunee, the eventual Division 6 runner-up. The Braves defeated Negaunee last week, and another win would send them to the Semifinals for the first time since 1985.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Midland Bullock Creek (8-3) at Reed City (8-3) - WATCH, Detroit Edison (8-3) at Almont (10-1) - WATCH. SATURDAY Ovid-Elsie (7-4) at Constantine (10-1) - WATCH.

11-Player Division 7

Pewamo-Westphalia (10-1) vs. North Muskegon (11-0) at Muskegon Oakridge, Saturday - WATCH

A 17-14 opening-weekend win over annual Finals contender Pewamo-Westphalia announced statewide that North Muskegon might be set up for a special season. And so it’s been, with last week’s 27-24 District clincher over Lawton the Norsemen’s first single-digit victory since that Week 1 defeat of the Pirates. P-W hasn’t lost again, or had another game decided by fewer than 13 points. The defense especially has resembled the group that helped drive Division 7 titles in 2019 and 2021, giving up 8.6 points per game and double digits only three times. North Muskegon has been held to fewer than 27 only one other game this fall, an 18-7 win over rival Ravenna.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Montrose (8-3) at Millington (11-0) - WATCH, Clinton (10-1) at Jackson Lumen Christi (10-1) - WATCH. SATURDAY McBain (7-4) at Menominee (9-2) - WATCH.

11-Player Division 8

Ithaca (11-0) at Ubly (11-0), Saturday - WATCH

This is the level of showdown that immediately came to mind when Ithaca slotted as one of the two largest schools in Division 8 after playoff runs in Divisions 5, 6 and 7 over the last decade. After another dominant regular season, Ithaca has navigated one-point wins over Fowler and New Lothrop to start the playoffs. The Yellowjackets feature their most potent offensive attack since 2017 and still have given up only 9.2 points per game after allowing a combined 55 over the last two weeks. Ubly’s last three seasons have ended at Ford Field twice and the Semifinals in 2021, and this team has performed similarly keeping pace with last season’s record-setting offense and allowing only 9.5 points per game.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Iron Mountain (11-0) at Beal City (10-1) - WATCH, White Pigeon (11-0) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (11-0) - WATCH. SATURDAY Riverview Gabriel Richard (7-4) at Clarkston Everest Collegiate (9-2) - WATCH.

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PHOTO Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central defenders converge during a Division 3 District Final win over Mount Pleasant. (Click for more from High School Sports Scene.)