Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '18

October 21, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

For a fading moment, we thought we saw the Big Dipper floating through the second floor of the MHSAA office Sunday morning.

Michigan’s northernmost high school in Calumet held the handle – but the only place the rest of the Region pointed was to questions about how we could come up with such a disjointed scenario for this season’s Division 6 Playoffs.

Below – as has become an annual tradition – we’ll answer that question and a few more about this year’s selection process.

Our mission Sunday was to map 213 automatic qualifiers for 11-player football – and a record 43 additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 records – plus our top 32 8-player teams across 10 divisions of playoffs that will conclude with the latter Nov. 17 at Northern Michigan University and 11-player Nov. 23-24 at Ford Field.

As often noted in the past, this process didn’t start Sunday morning – but months and in some cases more than a year ago when athletic directors began scheduling games for this fall. We make sure all are loaded into our system by early summer, and then follow every score/cancellation/forfeit/additional change through Week 9’s final games – including this season those for 46 teams from other states or Ontario that played Michigan schools and needed to be followed as well because their successes affected MHSAA teams’ strengths of schedule.

Now that the maps are drawn, we line up all that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal sites and continuing our work with our Finals hosts to create memorable experiences as teams play for championships.

So we’re off. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2018.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, and in 2017 a second division of 8-player football was introduced.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

As noted above, this season there were 213 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 43 additional qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so with those five we added 13 teams from Class A and B and 12 from Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The 8-player process is different for team selection and similar for designation of Regionals. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 (or in 8-player, 16) dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2018

We always start with CONGRATULATIONS: And this season they go first to Detroit Community, Detroit Public Safety Academy and Dexter, which made the MHSAA Football Playoffs for the first time. Of 611 football varsities across the state, all but 12 have made the playoffs at least once. Rockford missed out on an automatic bid with a Week 9 loss, but received an additional qualifier berth to set the record by making the MHSAA Playoffs for the 24th straight season. Crystal Falls Forest Park (22 seasons), Stevensville Lakeshore (21), Macomb Dakota (18), Climax-Scotts (16) and Grand Rapids West Catholic (16) also extended their stays on the list for longest MHSAA playoff streaks.

Break the tie: We again had to break a tie (actually two for District rounds) as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Our tie-breaks this season both took place in Division 4 – Grand Rapids South Christian received a home game against Wyoming Godwin Heights this week and St. Clair will host North Branch if they meet in a District Final. There are more possible meetings of teams with same averages in later rounds, and those ties will be broken the same way.

What is up with Division 6: Last year I had a “worst map ever,” and two of them this year would be in contention. Division 6 is the first – but the explanation for how we came up with what we did is simple. Region 1 is made up of two Districts with six schools from the northern Lower Peninsula and two from the Upper Peninsula. So however the Districts were sliced, two Lower Peninsula schools had to go with the U.P. And we settled this one strictly by comparing highway mileages of those Lower Peninsula teams to Mackinac Bridge (again, the only way to travel between the peninsulas). In the end, we placed Elk Rapids (93 miles) and Traverse City St. Francis (124) with Escanaba and Ishpeming Westwood because they are closest to the Bridge – followed by Kingsley (126), Maple City Glen Lake (144), Beaverton (161) and Tawas (168). The optics are strange – it may look like Glen Lake is driving past Elk Rapids and St. Francis on the way to Beaverton this week and potentially Tawas next. But Glen Lake’s route still travels south of those two schools this week (and depending on its chosen route on the way to Tawas as well), making everything fit – strangely looking, but nonetheless.

Lake Huron tour: You could see most of the American side by checking out this week’s Region 2 games in 8-player Division 2. This map also looks odd – there’s a bridge crossing and a drive around Saginaw Bay. Yet, after drawing this at least two more ways, we settled here – although Region 2 looks a little odd, all four teams are east of I-75 and north of Bay City.

Get your zoom on: We don’t enjoy splitting up teams that live next door to each other, but sometimes it’s a must. In Division 7 we were able to keep all eight Detroit-area and southeastern schools in Region 4, but the distance between its Districts came down to a few miles along I-96. In Division 2, we had to factor in outliers Port Huron Northern and Temperance Bedford – and the resulting Districts ended up splitting Livonia Churchill and Livonia Franklin.

At the end of the day …

I include this every year, but we draw the maps not knowing which schools are represented by the dots. At one point Sunday morning, I was wrong about which division we were considering at the time – and that’s a good thing. For the map drawing portion, it doesn’t matter.

But now that we know who is going where, here’s a glance at some stories that might emerge this week:

• We’ve got rivalries, like Portage Northern at Portage Central and Birmingham Groves at Birmingham Seaholm in Division 2, St. Johns at DeWitt and Haslett at East Lansing in Division 3, Constantine at Schoolcraft in Division 6 and Waterford Our Lady at Clarkston Everest Collegiate in Division 8 – plus Kingston at Deckerville in 8-player Division 1. There are many more we could mention – and some potential feuds renewed in two weeks as well depending on who wins this round.

• The Macomb Area Red, generally considered one of the strongest leagues annually in the state, sent four of six teams to the Division 1 playoffs – and they’re all in the same District. Champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-0) takes on Utica Eisenhower this week, and with a win would face either Macomb Dakota or Romeo after defeating both by just seven points during the regular season.

• Perhaps the most intriguing opener statewide is River Rouge (8-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (7-2) in Division 3. Neither gets tested much during their league seasons, but both played tough nonleague opponents and the winner will be considered a favorite to make it to Ford Field.

• Farmington Hills Harrison holds the records for most MHSAA Finals appearances (18) and titles (13) and will play its final playoffs in Division 4 after finishing Division 3 runner-up a year ago. The school is closing next spring. Coach John Herrington is the winningest in state history with 441 wins and counting against only 111 losses (and a tie).

• There are a few annual powers not in the bracket this season – most notably Lowell, Muskegon Catholic Central and Menominee – and others like Rockford, Mendon and Grand Rapids West Catholic got in as additional qualifiers. West Catholic has won five straight Division 5 championships and opens at Hudsonville Unity Christian. The Falcons won the 2013 title after also entering as a 5-4 team.

• There are 34 teams entering the playoffs unbeaten, but only four Districts have multiple – Manistee and Reed City share one in Division 5, Traverse City St. Francis and Calumet in Division 6, Reading and Ottawa Lake Whiteford in Division 8, and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian and Morrice in 8-player Division 1. All of those potential matchups would happen in 11-Player District or 8-Player Regional Finals.

• This will be the eighth year of the 8-player tournament, and in Division 1 only Deckerville in 2012 has won an MHSAA championship in this format. In Division 2, reigning champion Crystal Falls Forest Park opens with 2015-16 back-to-back champion Powers North Central.

• In 8-player, three teams with 5-4 records didn’t make the field of 32, and two teams with 4-5 records advanced. This is the reality of measuring by playoff point average. Fife Lake Forest Area and Webberville are the 4-5 teams, and their opponents this season won more than 61 percent of their games. The three teams at 5-4 and one at 4-4 had opponents’ winning percentages between 38-56 percent.

Every school and every community can tell a story of making these playoffs, and over the next five weeks the fortunate will continue to write chapters filled with moments that will never be forgotten. We’re looking forward to watching them all unfold.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 6 map shows an odd-looking scenario with two Traverse City-area teams in the same District as two from the Upper Peninsula. (Middle) The 8-player Division 2 map shows how schools are connected to a District along the Lake Huron shoreline.

1st & Goal: 2024 Playoffs Week 2 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

November 8, 2024

One week gone, half the 288-team field remaining, and matchups that much more competitive with trophies on the line.

MI Student AidThe first hardware of this season’s MHSAA Football Playoffs will be awarded this weekend, as 64 teams will earn 11-player District championships and eight will celebrate 8-player Regional titles.

Games are tonight unless noted. Tickets for both 11 and 8-player rounds this weekend cost $7, and more than 60 of the 72 games to be played will be streamed live on the NFHS Network. Scores and pairings will be updated all weekend at MHSAA.com.

11-Player Division 1

Saline (7-3) at Belleville (9-1)

These two have collided in the playoffs the last two seasons, Belleville winning last year’s District Final matchup 65-14 and in 2022 by a 62-44 count. The Tigers bounced back from their Week 9 one-point loss to Howell with a 68-0 win over Ann Arbor Pioneer last week, and Saline is here after downing Northville 37-7. Counting on-field scores from three forfeit losses to start the season, the Hornets have allowed just under eight points per game this fall – and no more than seven since Week 4. But they’ll get their greatest challenge again from a Tigers team averaging nearly 44 ppg.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Utica Eisenhower (8-2) at Macomb Dakota (9-1), Clarkston (7-3) at Rochester Adams (8-2), Oxford (7-3) at Grand Blanc (8-2).

11-Player Division 2

Byron Center (9-1) at Muskegon Mona Shores (9-1)

Their first meeting, in Week 4, was an Ottawa-Kent Conference Green opener and ended up deciding that league’s championship for Mona Shores with a 14-12 win. The Sailors’ defeat came two weeks ago, to Toledo Central Catholic by just a point 14-13. Otherwise, since that first matchup, Mona Shores has posted three shutouts and won its remaining league games by an average of nearly 35 points per, while Byron Center won its four other league games by just under 22 ppg including 17-14 over Muskegon High – which Shores defeated by 15.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Birmingham Seaholm (7-3) at Birmingham Groves (10-0), Warren De La Salle Collegiate (7-2) at Grosse Pointe South (10-0), Saginaw Heritage (7-3) at Midland (9-1).

11-Player Division 3

Zeeland West (9-1) at St. Joseph (9-1)

This will be their second District Final matchup in three years; West won in 2022 36-18. The Dux actually are playing for a third-straight District title and in their ninth playoff games over the last three seasons with a 6-2 record across that string and both losses by seven or fewer points. St. Joseph – which did defeat Zeeland West in 2021 during a Semifinal run – lost only to Mattawan this season and had nonleague wins over eventual playoff teams Niles and Edwardsburg, while West’s loss came to still-undefeated Hudsonville Unity Christian with nonleague wins over playoff qualifiers Grand Rapids West Catholic and Whitehall.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Coopersville (7-3) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (8-2), River Rouge (5-4) at Riverview (9-1), Mount Pleasant (6-4) at Petoskey (10-0).

11-Player Division 4

Freeland (9-1) at Goodrich (9-1)

A 21-20 Week 8 loss to Frankenmuth is all that has separated Freeland from an undefeated run so far, and Goodrich shares that opponent having fallen to the Eagles 22-0 in their season opener. The Martians have scored at last 42 points in every game since and given up only 7.3 per game over their last nine. Freeland has given up more than 20 points two other times this fall, but scored more than 50 points both times to win those matchups – including 51-21 last weekend over Lake Fenton, which Goodrich defeated 62-0 in Week 3.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Edwardsburg (7-3) at Niles (9-1), Hastings (9-1) at Portland (10-0), Dearborn Divine Child (7-3) at Harper Woods (7-3).

11-Player Division 5

Belding (9-1) at Frankenmuth (10-0)

In addition to Freeland and Goodrich (noted above), Frankenmuth also has turned away a challenge from Gladwin among teams playing for District titles tonight. But Belding is a dangerous foe riding a nine-game winning streak since losing its opener to Division 4 Ionia. The Black Knights rocked the O-K Silver, winning their league games on average by 42 points per, and opened the playoffs with a 52-30 win over Saginaw Swan Valley – which Frankenmuth defeated similarly 63-27 in Week 2.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grand Rapids Catholic Central (6-4) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (7-3), Corunna (8-2) at Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (8-1), Berrien Springs (7-3) at Kalamazoo United (8-2).

11-Player Division 6

Marine City (8-2) vs. Warren Michigan Collegiate (9-1) at Warren Lincoln, Saturday

Warren Michigan Collegiate also is riding a nine-game winning streak since falling 27-24 to Clarkston Everest Collegiate in Week 1. The Cougars will carry a 42-point-per-game average and four straight games reaching 50 into this matchup. Marine City has reached 50 three of its last four games as well, with its only defeats in the season opener to Division 5 Armada – by a point – and 39-20 in Week 6 to Division 4 Marysville.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Standish-Sterling (7-3) at Reed City (8-2), Central Montcalm (9-1) at Newaygo (8-2), Ida (9-1) at Jackson Lumen Christi (9-1).

11-Player Division 7

Traverse City St. Francis (7-3) at Menominee (9-1), Saturday

Both of these teams have trips to Ford Field once over the last two seasons – St. Francis as Division 7 runner-up in 2022 and Menominee as the same a year ago. The Maroons are in a District Final for the fifth time in six seasons after rebounding from their lone loss by outscoring Bark River Harris and Houghton Lake by a combined 103-6 over the last two weeks. St. Francis lost two of its last three games, but started the playoffs with a 41-16 win over Charlevoix.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Pewamo-Westphalia (8-2) at Ithaca (10-0), Union City (9-1) at Hudson (9-1), McBain (9-1) at North Muskegon (9-1).

11-Player Division 8

Harbor Beach (10-0) at Clarkston Everest Collegiate (9-1)

This is part of one of the most competitive Regionals in the state, regardless of division, as Harbor Beach opened last week against reigning champion Ubly and Everest has won four straight District titles – and with the winner this weekend facing either undefeated Fowler or surging Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary next week. Harbor Beach blanked the Bearcats 35-0 and has two straight shutouts and five total this season. Everest has four including last week’s against Burton Bentley – a bounce-back from a 17-14 loss to Division 4 Macomb Lutheran North to close the regular season.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Saugatuck (7-3) at Decatur (9-1), Manchester (8-2) at Riverview Gabriel Richard (8-1), Beal City (8-2) at Maple City Glen Lake (9-1).

8-Player Division 1

Martin (8-1) at Mendon (9-1), Saturday

Whichever team emerges from this side of the bracket to reach the Superior Dome will have conquered an incredible road. Both are one-score losses from undefeated this fall and avenged their regular-season losses last week – with the winner of this matchup to see either undefeated Deckerville or surging Kingston in a Semifinal. The key matchup may be Mendon’s rushing attack – playing the lead role for an offense scoring 65 points per game – vs. Martin’s defense that has allowed at least 20 points six times but more than 24 only once.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Indian River Inland Lakes (10-0) at Alcona (9-1), Kingston (8-2) at Deckerville (10-0). SATURDAY Ishpeming (7-2) at Pickford (10-0).

8-Player Division 2

Powers North Central (9-1) at Crystal Falls Forest Park (9-1)

Just two weeks ago, North Central finished a Great Lakes Eight Conference West title run with a 45-34 win over the Trojans. Jets senior Lane Gorzinski ran for 234 yards and five touchdowns and threw for 169 and another score as his team scored more points than Forest Park gave up over their other four league games combined (33). The Trojans bounced back with a 60-0 win over Bellaire last week, while North Central enjoyed a 58-0 shutout of Gaylord St. Mary.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Pittsford (8-2) at Britton Deerfield (9-1), Onekama (9-1) at Au Gres-Sims (9-1), SATURDAY Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (7-3) at Morrice (9-1).

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PHOTO Howell players huddle in anticipation of taking the field before their Week 9 win over Belleville. (Photo courtesy of State Champs! Sports Network.)