Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '17

October 22, 2017

By Geoff Kimmerly
Special for Second Half

We haven’t had Michigan high school football teams travel by boat to their playoff games, nor fly like the birds over places like Saginaw Bay and the northern stretch of Lake Michigan.

But phrases like “use the lake” and “follow the highway” dominated this year’s playoff mapping process, which once again saw members of the MHSAA staff and representatives of the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association draw into Districts and Regionals nearly 300 dots for our 10-division tournament that kicks off this weekend.

At the end of Saturday – around 9:48 p.m., to be nearly exact – there were 223 automatic qualifiers for the 256-team 11-player tournament, plus 32 for 8-player. By midnight, we had our entire playoff field more or less figured. Sunday at the MHSAA started before sunrise with double, triple and quadruple-checking, before a committee of 12 met to draw the tournament, go over all of each other’s work again, and then get everything ready to be presented online at MHSAA.com and broadcast across the state Sunday night on FOX Sports Detroit.

So much more than that goes into the football playoffs, of course. Athletic directors are scheduling games years in advance, and we start loading schedules into our system in late April. We monitor every game played every week by 614 Michigan varsity teams, plus this season 48 of our schools’ non-Michigan opponents located in five states and Ontario. Now we’re on to lining up everything that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal hosts and continuing our work with Northern Michigan University and Ford Field’s staffs to prepare for the 8 and 11-player Finals.

But we’re also the first to say that all of that is background noise to what we all look forward to most – five weeks of the best games our state has to offer again this fall.

As we’ve done the past six seasons, we’re explaining below our most difficult decisions in placing 288 playoff qualifiers in this Mapnalysis 2017 breakdown. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2017.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season. This fall, a second division of 8-player football was introduced, and we will celebrate 10 champions for the first time.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

As noted above, this season there were 223 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 33 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those five we added 10 teams from Class A and nine each from Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus this year two representatives from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The 8-player process is similar but changed this fall with the additional division. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2017

Let’s start with Congratulations: First to Detroit Western and St. Louis, which qualified for the MHSAA Playoffs for the first time. Then to seven more headed back for the first time in a while: Athens (first berth since 2000), Bridgeport (1999), Flat Rock (1990), Hancock (2006), Royal Oak (2006), Salem (1991) and Vermontville Maple Valley (2005). A total of 21 programs added to totals of more than 25 playoff berths, led by Beal City now with 35, Crystal Falls Forest Park and Farmington Hills Harrison with 33, Mendon with 32, Traverse City St. Francis with 31 and Frankfort with 30. Rockford earned its 23rd straight playoff berth, tying the record set by Felch North Dickinson from 1991-2013, and Menominee earned its 22nd straight to tie Traverse City St. Francis (1990-2011) for third on the list. Of our current 614 football varsities, all but 16 have made the playoffs at least once.

Break the tie: We again had to break a tie as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Cedarville will host Rudyard in an 8-player Division 1 game this week although both teams finished with the same playoff point average – Cedarville broke the tie with its 46-28 win over the Bulldogs in Week 1, which is a good thing because their opponents had matching 38-43 records this fall. 

Many ways, no great way to slice it: The map in 11-player Division 2 was among our first tough challenges Sunday. Our most northern District seemed to make sense right away – keeping Traverse City West and Traverse City Central together with Midland and Midland Dow. From there, it’s not a pretty picture. We looked at three ways of splitting up the Detroit-area schools. We have five teams on the Grand Rapids/Muskegon/Kalamazoo side of the Lower Peninsula, but Lowell being eastern-most got sent to a District with three Flint-area schools. The 11-player Division 3 map provided a similar quandary – DeWitt, East Lansing and Haslett are packed nicely just north of Lansing, but an uneven seven schools on the western side of the Lower Peninsula meant DeWitt getting grouped with three closer to Grand Rapids with East Lansing and Haslett heading south to join Parma Western and Tecumseh. Bay City Central is the lone qualifier in this division from the Bay City/Saginaw/Midland area and also had to go somewhere – and in this case it made more sense to send it south along I-75 then across to Grand Rapids.

It’s a highway thing: In both Division 4 and Division 6 of 11-player, we have one Upper Peninsula school joining the rest from downstate. In Calumet’s case in Division 6, there are opponents in the northern Lower Peninsula to slot against, but Escanaba in Division 4 left us again relying on I-75. The trip from Escanaba to Flint Powers Catholic – the southernmost team in that four-team District – seems like a longer haul than sending Escanaba instead southwest to Whitehall. But a trip to Powers is estimated to be an hour shorter than from Escanaba to Whitehall, again because of the main highway.

Use the lake: At least three of our 11-player divisions – 1, 2 and 5 – have a District that rides close to the southeastern region of the Lower Peninsula up from Macomb County into Port Huron. While those thin Districts seem a little odd in shape, they make sense by normal traffic flow up from Lake St. Clair toward the Lake Huron coast. That helps explain why Port Huron Northern is with Roseville, Warren DeLaSalle and Ferndale instead of taking Lowell’s spot with Fenton, Flushing and Flint Carman-Ainsworth.

Worst map ever: At least in my seven years of being a part of the process. I’m speaking of the 11-player map in Division 8, which saw us with six Upper Peninsula schools, but then three Lower Peninsula schools grouped together just below Mackinac Bridge. One of these three had to go with another group, which is how we ended up with Frankfort joining Munising, Newberry and Gaylord St. Mary (Johannesburg-Lewiston and Hillman ended up with AuGres-Sims and Lincoln Alcona.). Then there are the pair of triangles in the southwest Lower Peninsula with Muskegon Catholic Central and Fulton-Middleton a good deal north of their District opponents, but with no other way to group those teams since the other six are all along I-94 or just south. It’s not pretty, but splitting MCC and Fulton up and sending them south was the best of the options we developed.

At the end of the day …

So here’s the fun part. We draw the maps without knowing who is where – and then we take a look at the matchups as they’re being prepared for TV and online.

It’s hard to pick out only a handful to mention at this time, but here’s one guess at a few that will create a buzz this week:

• In Division 1, Holland West Ottawa hosts Grandville after beating the Bulldogs 34-18 in Week 9 to earn an outright Ottawa-Kent Conference Red title; a Grandville win would’ve given championship shares to both and Rockford.

• Also in Division 1, Bloomfield Hills travels to West Bloomfield after beating the Lakers 28-24 in Week 2; West Bloomfield hasn’t lost again.

• In Division 3, Zeeland West and Zeeland East face off again after East downed West 28-8 on Friday to win the O-K Green championship.

• Also in Division 3, DeWitt hosts Grand Rapids Christian after rattling off eight straight wins – the Panthers’ only loss was to Christian 38-30 on opening night.

• Rivals Wyoming Kelloggsville and Godwin Heights meet in Division 4 after Kelloggsville beat Godwin by a point in Week 6 on the way to winning the O-K Silver title. Three Rivers and Vicksburg also will meet for the second straight week, this time in a Division 4 game; Vicksburg beat Three Rivers on Friday to deny the Wildcats a share of the Wolverine B Conference title. Harbor Beach claimed the Greater Thumb Conference East title by downing Ubly 26-14 in the league finale in Week 8, and they’ll meet again this week in Division 8.

• The best rivalry in 8-player last year was Powers North Central versus Crystal Falls Forest Park, and they’ll meet to start this postseason with the reigning champion Jets hitting the road looking to avenge a 66-58 loss to the Trojans in Week 2.

We know every game over the next five weeks will be memorable, at least for those on the field and the communities cheering them on. With our maps drawn, we look forward watching championship roads get blazed – and we’ll be waiting where they end at NMU and Ford Field.  

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 4 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula shows how I-75 served as a guide for putting Escanaba in a District that includes Flint Powers Catholic.

1st & Goal: 2024 Week 6 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 3, 2024

If Week 5 could be considered something of a bridge week for several football conferences across the state, this one likely will be the eventual decider as championships are wrapped up over the final month of the regular season. 

MI Student AidSeveral matchups, including three pitting undefeated teams detailed below, have the potential to set off league title celebrations that are almost always the primary goal when teams kick off every season. 

All games listed below are tonight unless noted, with results posting as they are reported all weekend on the MHSAA Scores page. Updated standings also are available by clicking the schools on the score list, and every division’s playoff points summary updates as well as scores are received.

Bay & Thumb

Almont (5-0) at Armada (5-0) WATCH

Armada has not given up a point in its four Blue Water Area Conference wins, and after opening with a 28-27 victory over a Marine City team that has since averaged 52 points per game. The Tigers will face their toughest offensive challenge since that win over the Mariners, as Almont is averaging nearly 42 points per game – and also giving up just under nine per contest. The last three meetings between these two have been decided by seven points or fewer, with Almont last year’s victor 13-12.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Corunna (5-0) at Goodrich (4-1) WATCH, East Lansing (3-2) at Davison (4-1), Grand Blanc (4-1) at Lapeer (4-1), Marysville (4-1) at Marine City (4-1).

Greater Detroit

Troy (3-2) at Birmingham Seaholm (5-0) WATCH

Seaholm has dominated since moving back into the Oakland Activities Association Blue in 2022, with a combined 22-5 record overall over the last three seasons and eight straight league wins as the Maples pursue a repeat title. They have won three straight over Troy, but the Colts avenged a 2023 loss to Oak Park last week 31-6 and have gotten a few looks at top competition with defeats to powerful Lake Orion and Pontiac Notre Dame Prep.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Clinton Township Clintondale (4-1) at Clawson (3-2) WATCH, Rochester Adams (4-1) at Oxford (3-2) WATCH, Lake Orion (4-1) at West Bloomfield (2-3) WATCH. SATURDAY Warren Michigan Collegiate (4-1) at Detroit Voyageur College Prep (4-1).

Mid-Michigan

Pewamo-Westphalia (5-0) at Fowler (5-0) WATCH

These two began their annual series in 1966, and according to Michigan-Football.com P-W leads it 30-28 – with wins last year (27-14) and eight of the last nine. This could again eventually decide the Central Michigan Athletic Conference title, especially with Fowler already having handed Saranac its lone loss. The Eagles also opened the season by handing Hudson what remains the Tigers’ lone defeat, and P-W opened by dealing North Muskegon what remains its only loss this fall. Neither Fowler nor the Pirates have given up a point since Week 2.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Pinconning (4-1) at Harrison (5-0) WATCH, Napoleon (3-2) at Leslie (5-0) WATCH, Mason (4-1) at St. Johns (5-0) WATCH, Grand Ledge (4-1) at Lansing Everett (4-1) WATCH.

Northern Lower Peninsula

Petoskey (5-0) at Cadillac (3-2) WATCH

The next two weeks will make or break Petoskey’s Big North Conference title hopes, and potentially Cadillac’s as well. The Northmen and Marquette lead the league with 3-0 starts, while Cadillac is 3-1, and Petoskey faces Marquette next week – meaning a Cadillac win in this matchup and a Petoskey win over the Sentinels would open up the possibility of a three-team title share (with Escanaba also involved in this mix). The Northmen have given up just 37 points total this fall and defeated Escanaba in Week 3. Cadillac fell to Midland and then Escanaba to open this season, by seven points apiece, before winning three straight.  

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Traverse City St. Francis (4-1) at Cheboygan (3-2) WATCH, East Jordan (3-2) at Mancelona (3-2), Midland (4-1) at Traverse City Central (2-3) WATCH. SATURDAY Kingsley (3-2) at Benzie Central (2-3) WATCH.

Southeast & Border

Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (5-0) at Riverview (5-0) WATCH

For the second straight week, Riverview is playing in a premier matchup – and thanks to last week’s 52-45 win over previously-undefeated Flat Rock. That’s left these two tied for first in the Huron League and with opposing strengths set to face off. Riverview has topped 35 points in all five of its games and 50 the last three weeks, while SMCC hasn’t given up a point since Week 2 and just 22 total this fall. Also of note, the Falcons follow this weekend with a home game against Flat Rock.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Dexter (5-0) at Ann Arbor Pioneer (4-1) WATCH, Adrian Madison (4-1) at Hudson (4-1) WATCH, Toledo St. Francis de Sales, Ohio (5-1) at Jackson Lumen Christi (4-1) WATCH, Battle Creek Harper Creek (4-1) at Parma Western (4-1).

Southwest Corridor

Edwardsburg (4-1) at Paw Paw (5-0) WATCH

The Eddies are bouncing back nicely from last year’s 5-5 finish, and this will be their first opportunity to avenge a 2023 loss – in fact, two – as they fell to Paw Paw 35-0 and then 16-7 in the playoffs last fall. Edwardsburg’s lone loss this season came Week 2, by just seven points, to still-undefeated St. Joseph. Paw Paw’s surge started a year ago and has simply continued, as the Red Wolves opened with solid nonleague wins over Big Rapids and Berrien Springs – and, like Edwardsburg – have yet to be challenged much in three Wolverine Conference games.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Constantine (5-0) at Kalamazoo United (4-1), Portage Northern (4-1) at St. Joseph (5-0) WATCH, Bronson (4-1) at Union City (5-0), Lawton (4-1) at Schoolcraft (4-1) WATCH.

Upper Peninsula

Escanaba (3-2) at Marquette (4-1)

This rivalry is getting a massive boost with Escanaba already guaranteeing its best finish since 2019. Escanaba also will be playing for its first win over Marquette since 2017 and coming off its best back-to-back offensive performances (combining for 107 points) in more than a decade. Marquette has continued to build after finishing 3-6 in 2022 and 5-4 last year, with four shutouts this season and its only stumble in a Saturday game downstate at Lowell.  

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Gwinn (2-3) at Iron Mountain (5-0) WATCH, Negaunee (4-1) at Ishpeming Westwood (2-3) WATCH, Calumet (2-3) at Houghton (2-3), West Iron County (2-3) at Manistique (2-3) WATCH.

West Michigan

Holland Christian (5-0) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (4-1)

Holland Christian is another of the best comeback stories in the state so far, with its five wins already the varsity’s most since 2018 and punctuated by last week’s 21-20 triumph over East Grand Rapids. That said, this will clearly be the Maroons’ most massive challenge yet. Grand Rapids Catholic Central’s loss to Pontiac Notre Dame Prep in Week 3 gains context by the week as undefeated NDP rumbles through its schedule.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Rockford (3-2) at Caledonia (4-1), Beal City (4-1) at Evart (4-1) WATCH, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (5-0) at Reed City (4-1) WATCH, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (4-1) at Zeeland West (4-1) WATCH.

8-Player

Bellevue (4-1) at Mendon (5-0) WATCH

While Mendon hasn’t navigated a sub-.500 season since 2006, it’s fair to call this the Hornets’ most powerful start – at least statistically – in some time. The Hornets have absolutely dominated, scoring 54 or more points every game, 60 or more in four, and giving up 34 points total with three shutouts. Their best win likely was 66-14 over Britton Deerfield, which hasn’t lost otherwise. Enter Bellevue, which jumped from 0-9 two years ago to 6-3 last season and sits a three-point loss in Week 2 to Adrian Lenawee Christian from being undefeated as well. The Broncos have given up just 57 points this season and are coming off back-to-back 60-plus scoring performances.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Norway (4-1) at Munising (5-0) WATCH, Grand Rapids Sacred Heart (5-0) at St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic (4-1), Marion (5-0) at Suttons Bay (4-1) WATCH.

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PHOTO Ishpeming's Grady Gauthier holds onto Indian River Inland Lakes' quarterback Aidan Fenstermaker's leg as he gets ready to dive into the end zone during Inland Lake's Week 5 win. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)