Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '16

October 24, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

There was a wheel and something that looked like a magic wand. Another started out looking like the head of a caterpillar.

A number of Michigan football teams realized their sky-high dreams with Sunday’s playoff selection announcement on Fox Sports Detroit. 

But earlier that day, as is the case at the end of each fall, shaping this season’s tournament at times looked a little like finding pictures in the clouds.

Beginning last night and into this morning, MHSAA staff have been busily gathering game days and times for this weekend’s opening round. We’re assigning officials for those contests. Schools are preparing for what likely will be one of their biggest crowds of the season. And, of course, teams are preparing for what surely will be one of their most memorable games.

But before all of that could begin, we met Sunday morning with nine maps of Michigan and 272 dots that needed to be organized to set another playoffs in motion.

As we’ve done the past five seasons, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2016 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2016.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were 218 automatic qualifiers by win total – only two more than the record low set a year ago – with the final 38 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. For the second consecutive season there were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams from Class A and 11 each from Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2016

First things, first: Congratulations to five first-time playoff qualifiers  Bloomfield Hills, Detroit Delta Prep, Southfield Arts & Technology, Southfield Bradford and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian. Bloomfield Hills (Lahser and Andover) and Southfield Arts & Technology (Southfield and Southfield-Lathrup) were created by mergers of previous schools. Southfield A&T and Detroit Delta Prep are eligible for tournament play this season for the first time. Bradford and Tri-unity Christian both started programs during the latter half of the 2000s; Tri-unity qualified in 8-player after moving back to that format from 11-player this fall. Of 617 varsity football programs that played games this season (including five not eligible for the playoffs as either a first-year program or with an enrollment too high for 8-player), all but 18 have made the playoffs at least once going back to the first series in 1975.

Tie it up: We had a few ties in a few ways this season. In two situations, we had multiple teams with the same enrollment at a line between divisions. In those cases, the teams with the higher playoff point averages go to the larger divisions – so Ferndale went to Division 2 and East Lansing to Division 3 to settle one tie, and Lansing Sexton went to Division 4 and Dowagiac to Division 5 to settle the other. The additional tie came in 8-player football, with Portland St. Patrick and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian both having the same playoff point average, the same opponents’ winning percentage and drawn into the same District. A coin flip was used to determine St. Patrick as the top seed and home team both this week and next if it advances and plays the Defenders.

Local really is the rule: Division 3 provided us with a fine example to help show that we work to draw maps locally and beginning with the earliest rounds. There were at least three ways to separate the schools in Region 3 District 1: East Lansing, DeWitt, Fowlerville and Mason. DeWitt, as the westernmost of the group, could’ve been drawn southwest with R2D2’s Vicksburg, Battle Creek Harper Creek and Coldwater, replacing Chelsea. Doing so would’ve literally split the state’s regions down the middle along U.S. 127, which is a favorable picture. But protocol is to favor local matchups at the earliest rounds, and it just didn’t make sense to take DeWitt away from three schools mere minutes away when subbing it in for Chelsea would’ve created a wash in terms of travel for the other three teams in R2D2.

Sometimes, there’s no choice: But keeping a group of four local teams together often is impossible. Remember, 32 dots usually are spread out at least all over the Lower Peninsula. In Division 4, we had Grand Rapids Catholic Central, Wyoming Godwin Heights, Wyoming Kelloggsville and Grand Rapids South Christian stacked nicely along U.S. 131 – but had to send southernmost South Christian down with Benton Harbor, Three Rivers and Hudsonville Unity Christian because there was no other grouping for Allendale, which is about 20 miles west of Grand Rapids. Another incident of splitting up near-neighbors happened in Division 2; we had Lowell and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central next door to each other, but no other Grand Rapids area teams qualify. By only a few miles, Forest Hills Central is south of Lowell – so although the Rangers had shorter drives than Lowell to possible opponents both north and south, they went into a group with Portage Northern, Portage Central and Battle Creek Lakeview, and Lowell went north to join Greenville, Traverse City West and Traverse City Central.

Why coast to coast: It wasn’t lost on the committee that teams waking up looking at Lake Huron traveling to play on Lake Michigan isn’t the greatest scenario. But it was the best of the options, and we stayed consistent by setting up a possible two District trips across the Lower Peninsula. Tawas will journey to Maple City Glen Lake in Division 6 this week. With wins this week, Lincoln Alcona could end up heading to Frankfort for a Division 8 District Final. Those trips aren’t ideal, but they did allow us to keep northern Lower Peninsula teams together – and in reality, aren’t too different than when teams from the Lower Peninsula and Upper Peninsula match up the first week, as will be the case in Division 4 (Whitehall to Escanaba), Division 5 (Kalkaska to Menominee and Grayling to Kingsford), Division 6 (Charlevoix to Negaunee and Boyne City to Calumet) and Division 8 (Gaylord St. Mary to Newberry).

It’s just the math: The one unexpected oddity of this week’s matchups is Canton going back to Northville for the second week in a row, and after beating Northville 42-27 last week. But math does rule, and Northville does have a higher playoff point average despite that Week 9 loss; the Mustangs beat five teams that finished with winning records, while Canton beat three – which of course is no fault of the Chiefs. It's just the way – rarely – things work out.

At the end of the day …

In six years of being part of these discussions, this weekend’s at least seemed to be the most extensive. We had two and three versions of multiple divisions before deciding which we believed to be the best.

Only one division map – 8-player – was an absolute slam dunk. The rest received plenty of scrutiny from a committee that now includes veterans going back to the beginning but also has had some new eyes join in over the last couple of years. That variety of viewpoints certainly pays off.

And wow, did we fall into some incredible first-week matchups:

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Rockford and Hudsonville in a rematch of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red-deciding game of Week 9 (a Hudsonville 14-7 win).

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Traverse City West vs. Traverse City Central for the first time in playoff history (Central won 10-8 in Week 3).

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Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood at Detroit Country Day in a homecoming for longtime Yellowjackets coach Joe D’Angelo.

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Constantine at Schoolcraft in a matchup of longtime southwestern rivals (Schoolcraft won 20-10 in Week 8).

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Cedarville at Engadine in arguably the most intriguing of three all-U.P. 8-player matchups (Engadine won 52-42 in Week 7).

Truly, at the end of November, the best teams will have to beat the rest to finish as champions – regardless of maps, matchups, weather and anything else that won’t really factor into what eventually is settled on the field.

For many high school sports fans, it’s the favorite time of year. Join us now as we prepare for kickoff.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 1 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula. (Middle) The Division 3 map keeps four mid-Michigan teams together.

1st & Goal: 2024 Week 3 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 12, 2024

It’s always “rivalry week” somewhere in Michigan, and “championship week” is still a month or more away for most football contenders.

MI Student AidBut as we finish up the first third of the 2024 regular season, this could be “opportunity week” for several teams playing in our top regional matchups highlighted below.

All nine games are part of annual series, and most of those series have been relatively one-sided of late. But that past history has set up opportunities for some of this season’s early risers, who will try to avenge 2023 defeats, shake up league standings, continue establishing themselves as teams to watch or some combination of all three.  

Stay tuned. All games listed below are tonight unless noted, and keep up with results as they are reported all weekend on the MHSAA Scores page.

Bay & Thumb

Lake Fenton (2-0) at Goodrich (1-1) WATCH

Goodrich has won two straight in this series – including 34-15 a year ago – and five of the last six against the Blue Devils. This is a Flint Metro League Stars opener, and the Martians rebounded in a big way from a season-opening loss to Frankenmuth with a 47-7 win over Linden last week. Lake Fenton linebacker Hunter Carey could be key in slowing Chase Burnett and a Goodrich rushing attack that found its stride after that first-week shutout.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY New Lothrop (1-1) at Chesaning (2-0) WATCH, Grand Blanc (1-1) at Saginaw Heritage (2-0) WATCH, Muskegon Mona Shores (2-0) at Flint Hamady (2-0), Ubly (0-2) at Harbor Beach (2-0) WATCH.

Greater Detroit

Warren De La Salle Collegiate (2-0) at Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (2-0) 

De La Salle won last year’s meeting 41-27 and owns a four-game winning streak against the Eaglets. The Pilots also have been among the most impressive teams statewide to start this season with wins over Davison and Detroit Martin Luther King, while giving up a combined 16 points over those two victories. But St. Mary’s is 2-0 for the first time since 2021, and with a 50-19 season-opening win over Portage Northern especially impressive.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grand Rapids Catholic Central (2-0) at Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (2-0) WATCH, West Bloomfield (1-1) at Rochester Adams (2-0) WATCH, Harper Woods (1-1) at Detroit Catholic Central (2-0) WATCH, Oxford (1-1) at Clarkston (1-1) WATCH.

Mid-Michigan

Grand Ledge (2-0) at East Lansing (2-0) WATCH

While most will point to East Lansing’s Week 5 matchup with DeWitt as the game of the year in the Lansing area, Grand Ledge will attempt to break up that excitement. The Comets are seeking to avenge a 35-21 loss to the Trojans from a year ago (and have lost five of their last six in this series) and no doubt will take some tips from Hudsonville, which edged East Lansing 14-12 last week. That defeat on the road against a top team likely will end up looking like a “good loss,” however, and the Trojans’ season-opening 31-7 win over Portage Central looked even better last week as Central fell to reigning Division 3 champion Forest Hills Central by only seven points.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY McBain (2-0) at Beal City (2-0) WATCH, Montrose (1-1) at Durand (2-0) WATCH, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary (2-0) at Ithaca (2-0), Mason (1-1) at Williamston (0-2) WATCH.

Northern Lower Peninsula

Gladwin (2-0) at Ogemaw Heights (2-0) WATCH

The Flying Gs are flying high again with a variety of playmakers contributing to the 99 points they’ve scored over their first two games. But this trip to see a familiar opponent should be more challenging. Gladwin and Ogemaw Heights have played three straight seasons – Gladwin winning three times but Ogemaw winning last season’s playoff rematch 28-23. This time, for the first time, they’re part of the same Jack Pine Conference division, and the Falcons also earned early buzz with a 29-13 win over reigning Division 8 champion Ubly in their season opener.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Benzie Central (1-1) at Frankfort (1-1) WATCH, Elk Rapids (1-1) at Cheboygan (1-1) WATCH, Charlevoix (1-1) at Boyne City (1-1) WATCH, East Jordan (2-0) at Kalkaska (1-1) WATCH.

Southeast & Border

Grass Lake (2-0) at Hanover-Horton (2-0) WATCH

Hanover-Horton has played some notable opponents close over the last decade, but a one-point win last week might be a sign the Comets are on their way to building a memorable 2024. They edged frequent playoff team Michigan Center, in doing so moving to 2-0 and already equaling their season win total from a year ago. Grass Lake is another playoff regular, and Hanover-Horton actually has defeated the Warriors two of the last three seasons – although Grass Lake won last year’s matchup 32-22.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Saline (2-0) at Ann Arbor Pioneer (2-0) WATCH, Adrian Madison (2-0) at Clinton (1-1) WATCH, Ida (2-0) at Hudson (1-1) WATCH, Ann Arbor Skyline (1-1) at Ann Arbor Huron (1-1) WATCH.

Southwest Corridor

Constantine (2-0) at Schoolcraft (2-0) WATCH

Constantine has won this rivalry game the last two seasons including 27-21 a year ago and rumbles into this year’s edition having outscored its first two opponents by a combined 114-14 – with a 64-6 win over 2023 playoff team Benton Harbor last week. Schoolcraft has defeated returning playoff teams both of its first two games – Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker and then Centreville – and will try to finish off last season’s comeback against the Falcons that fell just short.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Ottawa Lake Whiteford (1-1) at Buchanan (1-1) WATCH, Parchment (2-0) at Dowagiac (1-1), Lawton (1-1) at Kalamazoo Hackett Catholic Prep (2-0), Three Rivers (1-1) at Niles (1-1) WATCH.

Upper Peninsula

Negaunee (2-0) at Calumet (2-0) WATCH

The Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper is loaded again, and for the second-straight season Calumet plays Negaunee, Menominee and Kingsford in back-to-back-to-back weeks with an opportunity to establish itself in the mix as well. The Copper Kings will make the push coming off a 30-14 win over Ishpeming Westwood and will try to break a two-game losing streak against the Miners after Negaunee won last season’s meeting 20-13 on the way to eventually sharing the league title.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Kingsford (2-0) at Gladstone (0-2) WATCH, Hancock (1-1) at Houghton (0-2), Menominee (2-0) at Ishpeming Westwood (1-1) WATCH. SATURDAY Gaylord (0-2) at Marquette (2-0).

West Michigan

Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (2-0) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern (2-0) WATCH

Forest Hills Central has owned this rivalry matchup winning all nine since the two began playing annually again in 2016. But the Huskies are coming off their winningest season since 2015 and have an opportunity to set themselves up with incredible momentum heading into a challenging league schedule that opens Week 4 with Muskegon followed by Reeths-Puffer, Mona Shores and Byron Center. FHC has won 11 straight games – with five of those, of course, coming during last season’s Division 3 title run – and has downed 2023 playoff teams Reeths-Puffer and Portage Central to start its repeat pursuit.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Ada Forest Hills Eastern (2-0) at Hudsonville Unity Christian (2-0), East Kentwood (1-1) at Caledonia (2-0), Grand Rapids South Christian (2-0) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (1-1), Zeeland West (2-0) at Whitehall (1-1) WATCH.

8-Player

Norway (2-0) at Crystal Falls Forest Park (2-0) WATCH

After closing last season with a pair of losses, Forest Park has popped back up impressively winning its first two games by a combined score of 87-14. The Trojans will bring that surge into this matchup with Norway, the only opponent to defeat them during last year’s 7-1 start. The Knights won last year convincingly, 40-6, and have put up a combined 102 points over the first two weeks as they look to build on last year’s 8-3 finish, their best since moving to 8-player in 2021. Norway also won this matchup in 2022. 

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Portland St. Patrick (2-0) at Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (2-0), Climax-Scotts (1-1) at Adrian Lenawee Christian (1-1) WATCH, Mendon (2-0) at Concord (2-0) WATCH, Au Gres-Sims (1-1) at Rogers City (1-1).

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PHOTO Fenton defenders begin to bring down Haslett's Cornelius Malone (5) during the Tigers' 21-14 win in Week 2. (Photo by Terry Lyons.)