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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '16

October 24, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

There was a wheel and something that looked like a magic wand. Another started out looking like the head of a caterpillar.

A number of Michigan football teams realized their sky-high dreams with Sunday’s playoff selection announcement on Fox Sports Detroit. 

But earlier that day, as is the case at the end of each fall, shaping this season’s tournament at times looked a little like finding pictures in the clouds.

Beginning last night and into this morning, MHSAA staff have been busily gathering game days and times for this weekend’s opening round. We’re assigning officials for those contests. Schools are preparing for what likely will be one of their biggest crowds of the season. And, of course, teams are preparing for what surely will be one of their most memorable games.

But before all of that could begin, we met Sunday morning with nine maps of Michigan and 272 dots that needed to be organized to set another playoffs in motion.

As we’ve done the past five seasons, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2016 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2016.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were 218 automatic qualifiers by win total – only two more than the record low set a year ago – with the final 38 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. For the second consecutive season there were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams from Class A and 11 each from Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2016

First things, first: Congratulations to five first-time playoff qualifiers – Bloomfield Hills, Detroit Delta Prep, Southfield Arts & Technology, Southfield Bradford and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian. Bloomfield Hills (Lahser and Andover) and Southfield Arts & Technology (Southfield and Southfield-Lathrup) were created by mergers of previous schools. Southfield A&T and Detroit Delta Prep are eligible for tournament play this season for the first time. Bradford and Tri-unity Christian both started programs during the latter half of the 2000s; Tri-unity qualified in 8-player after moving back to that format from 11-player this fall. Of 617 varsity football programs that played games this season (including five not eligible for the playoffs as either a first-year program or with an enrollment too high for 8-player), all but 18 have made the playoffs at least once going back to the first series in 1975.

Tie it up: We had a few ties in a few ways this season. In two situations, we had multiple teams with the same enrollment at a line between divisions. In those cases, the teams with the higher playoff point averages go to the larger divisions – so Ferndale went to Division 2 and East Lansing to Division 3 to settle one tie, and Lansing Sexton went to Division 4 and Dowagiac to Division 5 to settle the other. The additional tie came in 8-player football, with Portland St. Patrick and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian both having the same playoff point average, the same opponents’ winning percentage and drawn into the same District. A coin flip was used to determine St. Patrick as the top seed and home team both this week and next if it advances and plays the Defenders.

Local really is the rule: Division 3 provided us with a fine example to help show that we work to draw maps locally and beginning with the earliest rounds. There were at least three ways to separate the schools in Region 3 District 1: East Lansing, DeWitt, Fowlerville and Mason. DeWitt, as the westernmost of the group, could’ve been drawn southwest with R2D2’s Vicksburg, Battle Creek Harper Creek and Coldwater, replacing Chelsea. Doing so would’ve literally split the state’s regions down the middle along U.S. 127, which is a favorable picture. But protocol is to favor local matchups at the earliest rounds, and it just didn’t make sense to take DeWitt away from three schools mere minutes away when subbing it in for Chelsea would’ve created a wash in terms of travel for the other three teams in R2D2.

Sometimes, there’s no choice: But keeping a group of four local teams together often is impossible. Remember, 32 dots usually are spread out at least all over the Lower Peninsula. In Division 4, we had Grand Rapids Catholic Central, Wyoming Godwin Heights, Wyoming Kelloggsville and Grand Rapids South Christian stacked nicely along U.S. 131 – but had to send southernmost South Christian down with Benton Harbor, Three Rivers and Hudsonville Unity Christian because there was no other grouping for Allendale, which is about 20 miles west of Grand Rapids. Another incident of splitting up near-neighbors happened in Division 2; we had Lowell and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central next door to each other, but no other Grand Rapids area teams qualify. By only a few miles, Forest Hills Central is south of Lowell – so although the Rangers had shorter drives than Lowell to possible opponents both north and south, they went into a group with Portage Northern, Portage Central and Battle Creek Lakeview, and Lowell went north to join Greenville, Traverse City West and Traverse City Central.

Why coast to coast: It wasn’t lost on the committee that teams waking up looking at Lake Huron traveling to play on Lake Michigan isn’t the greatest scenario. But it was the best of the options, and we stayed consistent by setting up a possible two District trips across the Lower Peninsula. Tawas will journey to Maple City Glen Lake in Division 6 this week. With wins this week, Lincoln Alcona could end up heading to Frankfort for a Division 8 District Final. Those trips aren’t ideal, but they did allow us to keep northern Lower Peninsula teams together – and in reality, aren’t too different than when teams from the Lower Peninsula and Upper Peninsula match up the first week, as will be the case in Division 4 (Whitehall to Escanaba), Division 5 (Kalkaska to Menominee and Grayling to Kingsford), Division 6 (Charlevoix to Negaunee and Boyne City to Calumet) and Division 8 (Gaylord St. Mary to Newberry).

It’s just the math: The one unexpected oddity of this week’s matchups is Canton going back to Northville for the second week in a row, and after beating Northville 42-27 last week. But math does rule, and Northville does have a higher playoff point average despite that Week 9 loss; the Mustangs beat five teams that finished with winning records, while Canton beat three – which of course is no fault of the Chiefs. It's just the way – rarely – things work out.

At the end of the day …

In six years of being part of these discussions, this weekend’s at least seemed to be the most extensive. We had two and three versions of multiple divisions before deciding which we believed to be the best.

Only one division map – 8-player – was an absolute slam dunk. The rest received plenty of scrutiny from a committee that now includes veterans going back to the beginning but also has had some new eyes join in over the last couple of years. That variety of viewpoints certainly pays off.

And wow, did we fall into some incredible first-week matchups:

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Rockford and Hudsonville in a rematch of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red-deciding game of Week 9 (a Hudsonville 14-7 win).

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Traverse City West vs. Traverse City Central for the first time in playoff history (Central won 10-8 in Week 3).

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Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood at Detroit Country Day in a homecoming for longtime Yellowjackets coach Joe D’Angelo.

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Constantine at Schoolcraft in a matchup of longtime southwestern rivals (Schoolcraft won 20-10 in Week 8).

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Cedarville at Engadine in arguably the most intriguing of three all-U.P. 8-player matchups (Engadine won 52-42 in Week 7).

Truly, at the end of November, the best teams will have to beat the rest to finish as champions – regardless of maps, matchups, weather and anything else that won’t really factor into what eventually is settled on the field.

For many high school sports fans, it’s the favorite time of year. Join us now as we prepare for kickoff.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 1 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula. (Middle) The Division 3 map keeps four mid-Michigan teams together.

Marquette's Grant Simon (2) finds a hole to pick up several yards against Gaylord.

1st & Goal: 2024 Week 3 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 16, 2024

What a difference a year can make.

MI Student AidWe are only one-third through the 2024 football regular season, and already several teams are outperforming how they finished a year ago – or are on the verge of doing so.

After a maximum of only three games played, 25 teams statewide have guaranteed they’ll finish with better records this fall than in 2023. Another 54 teams already have as many wins this fall as they had all of last season – and we note several of both groups below in this week’s review.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Grand Blanc 22, Saginaw Heritage 21 Heritage’s emergence the last few seasons has made a powerful Saginaw Valley League Red even more competitive, and the title this season could be up for grabs until the end. Grand Blanc (2-1) sits atop the standings at 2-0 in league play thanks in part to Nate Szczembara blocking what would have been a winning Heritage field goal on this game’s last play. Click for more from WJRT.

Watch list Midland Dow 28, Mount Pleasant 7 After tough opening losses to two strong opponents, Dow (1-2) got its first win over another annual playoff qualifier, the reigning SVL Blue champion Oilers (1-2), who had defeated the Chargers 42-7 a year ago.

On the move Chesaning 47, New Lothrop 22 The reigning Mid-Michigan Activities Conference champion improved to 3-0 by doubling up last season’s league runner-up Hornets (1-2). Montrose 20, Durand 14 Staying the MMAC, Montrose (2-1) now might be Chesaning’s top challenger after defeating a Durand team (2-1) that was coming off a win over New Lothrop in Week 2. Frankenmuth 48, Alma 7 Frankenmuth (3-0) became the 14th program on record to reach 500 wins, this one making the Eagles 500-165-4 since the school opened in 1956.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 42, Grand Rapids Catholic Central 0 Notre Dame Prep already was considered among the elite in Division 5 this season, entering the weekend ranked No. 3 in the coaches poll. But the Fighting Irish (3-0) may now be the favorites after this stunning win over the top-ranked and reigning champion Cougars (2-1) – which followed NDP’s Week 2 victory over 2023 Division 7 champion Jackson Lumen Christi. Click for more from the Detroit News.

Watch list Rochester Adams 21, West Bloomfield 14 Ryland Watters scored twice during the second half and Adams (3-0) stopped West Bloomfield’s final rally six yards from a potential tying score to avenge a pair of losses to the Lakers (1-2) from a year ago, including in their District opener.

On the move Warren De La Salle Collegiate 38, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 28 De La Salle (3-0) withstood a challenge from an improved St. Mary’s team (2-1) to set up this week’s meeting with reigning Catholic High School League Central champion Toledo Central Catholic. Detroit Catholic Central 45, Harper Woods 12 The Shamrocks (3-1) also continued to impress, scoring the most points that reigning Division 4 champion Harper Woods (1-2) had given up since 2021. Sterling Heights Stevenson 24, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 7 After two straight sub-.500 seasons (although Stevenson did make the playoffs last year at 4-5), the Titans are 3-0 for the first time since 2009 after avenging a pair of losses to Chippewa Valley (1-2) from a year ago.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Brighton 29, Northville 28 (2OT) Brighton (2-1) was another team to avenge a pair of 2023 losses during Week 3, after falling to Northville during both the regular season and Division 1 playoffs last fall. Northville (1-2) is the reigning Kensington Lakes Activities Association West champion, but the Bulldogs are one of three teams atop the standings early this fall thanks to winning this one on a double-overtime 2-point conversion. Click for more from the Livingston Daily Press & Argus.

Watch list Olivet 7, Lansing Sexton 0 The Eagles (2-1) bounced back from a Week 2 loss to Portland to avenge a 48-12 loss to Sexton (1-2) from a year ago – and pull within one more win of equaling last season’s victory total.

On the move Corunna 49, Ortonville Brandon 21 The Cavaliers (3-0) graduated some serious star power in the spring but just keep grinding, with this league-opening double-up of Brandon (2-1) extending their regular-season win streak to 12. East Lansing 38, Grand Ledge 21 East Lansing’s speed is immediately obvious and stunning, and the Trojans (2-1) bounced back from a Week 2 loss to Hudsonville by pulling away from the physical Comets (2-1) during the second half in front of an overflowing Homecoming crowd. Ithaca 35, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 14 Ithaca (3-0) also gained an important early advantage with a league-opening win, as these two decided last year’s Tri-Valley Conference White title, won by the Yellowjackets.

Suna Chami (13) breaks down the sideline during Dearborn's 28-13 win over Livonia Franklin.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER McBain 29, Beal City 25 McBain (3-0) ended Beal City’s 21-game Highland Conference winning streak, which dated to the start of 2021 and included three wins over the Ramblers. The Aggies (2-1) had defeated McBain 48-7 last season on the way to winning league, District and Regional titles. Click for more from the Cadillac News.

Watch list Ogemaw Heights 12, Gladwin 7 It wouldn’t be stunning if this eventually ends up deciding the Jack Pine Conference Division 1 championship – and it also wouldn’t be stunning if these two end up meeting again in the playoffs, as Ogemaw Heights (3-0) entered the weekend ranked No. 5 in Division 5 and Gladwin (2-1) was No. 8.

On the move LeRoy Pine River 21, Lake City 6 Pine River (1-2) has won only five games combined over the last five seasons, but this one could provide a spark as it was the Bucks’ first over Lake City (1-2) since 2016. Cheboygan 30, Elk Rapids 23 Cheboygan (2-1) is one of the season’s early success stories, as the Chiefs already have bested last year’s 1-8 finish – and with another win can guarantee their most since 2019. Boyne City 45, Charlevoix 21 This was a major victory for Boyne City (2-1) heading into a loaded Northern Michigan Football League Legends schedule, as Charlevoix (1-2) is the reigning champion in the NMFL Leaders and Boyne finished third in the Leaders last season.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Hanover-Horton 49, Grass Lake 21 Hanover-Horton (3-0) continues to look like a team with promising possibilities this fall, and this win was notable for several reasons – it guaranteed the Comets will finish better than last year’s 2-7 record, avenged 32-22 and 28-6 losses to Grass Lake from last season, and came against a Warriors team (2-1) that has finished below .500 only once over the last 22 seasons, according to Michigan-Football.com. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen Patriot.

Watch list Jackson 28, Tecumseh 20 We’ll know more once the Southeastern Conference White schedule gets rolling – Jackson also started 4-1 last season and finished 4-5. But the Vikings are 3-0 after this league opener, and that’s included avenging last year’s loss to Monroe.

On the move Ottawa Lake Whiteford 44, Buchanan 16 This was a solid bounce-back for the Bobcats (2-1) after a Week 2 loss to Ida. Buchanan is 1-2 against an opening schedule of teams that are a combined 7-2. Hudson 16, Ida 8 After a reasonably close opening loss to still-undefeated Fowler, Hudson (2-1) has handed first defeats this season to Dowagiac and now the Bluestreaks (2-1). Michigan Center 14, Jonesville 6 Michigan Center (1-2) was another team with a difficult opening slate, but the Cardinals got on the board with this win over a Jonesville team (1-2) that finished Cascades Conference West runner-up a year ago.

A Traverse City Central ball carrier works to secure possession during a 49-14 loss to Davison.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Constantine 31, Schoolcraft 29 (OT) Constantine (3-0) extended its winning streak in this rivalry to three with a second-straight by one score, stopping Schoolcraft’s 2-point conversion attempt in overtime to finish the victory. Schoolcraft (2-1) had pulled even with 1:09 to play in regulation after the teams traded leads five times. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Watch list Berrien Springs 28, Traverse City St. Francis 14 The Shamrocks (1-2) may have started 0-2 for the second season in a row, but they made a splash by handing the Gladiators (2-1) their first defeat of the season. This one could mean a lot later as well as Berrien Springs works to extend a decade-long playoff streak.

On the move Galesburg-Augusta 17, Allegan 14 With back-to-back wins over Cassopolis and now Allegan (2-1), Galesburg-August (2-1) has equaled its win total of a year ago. Lawton 27, Kalamazoo United 18 Lawton (2-1) was coming off a loss to St. Francis but found its footing in handing United (2-1) its first defeat. Niles 56, Three Rivers 6 Niles (2-1) opened its Wolverine Conference schedule with a 10th-straight league win and has scored at least 49 points in all 10.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Marquette 30, Gaylord 0 Marquette’s opening statement on this season keeps getting louder, as the Sentinels are up to two losses avenged from a year ago – they fell to Gaylord 37-16 in 2023 – and they have yet to give up a point, outscoring their first three opponents by a combined 136-0. The most major test yet is coming up, as Marquette travels to Lowell this week. Click for more from the Marquette Mining Journal.

Watch list Gwinn 33, L’Anse 6 Gwinn (2-1) had only four wins over the last three seasons combined, and both last year against the same opponent. But the Modeltowners opened this fall by avenging a 2023 loss to Bridgeport and have now equaled last season’s total of two victories – with plenty of opportunities to add to that coming up.

On the move Negaunee 29, Calumet 0 The Miners (3-0) will head into this week’s major clash with Kingsford coming off their first shutout of the season having stopped a Copper Kings offense that had put up 80 points over two victories to start the fall. Houghton 38, Hancock 16 The Gremlins (1-2) have won three straight over their neighbors and will see Hancock (1-2) again in the regular-season finale. Menominee 58, Ishpeming Westwood 19 This early surge has played out almost identically to the start of last year’s run to the Division 7 championship game, as Menominee has scored a combined 170 points and given up just 25 over the first three weeks.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Grand Rapids South Christian 41, Grand Rapids West Catholic 38 The Sailors (3-0) will come barreling into the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green schedule this week after a second comeback win and this one against the No. 2-ranked team in Division 5. The Sailors trailed 24-14 at halftime before rallying and sending the Falcons to 1-2. Click for more from FOX 17.

Watch list East Kentwood 41, Caledonia 35 East Kentwood’s anticipated rise may be starting. The Falcons ended a three-game losing streak against Caledonia – and hadn’t scored in their previous two meetings with the Fighting Scots (2-1). East Kentwood (2-1) needs one more win to equal last season’s total.

On the move Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 17, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern 14 This was the closest game these rivals have played since restarting their series, but FHC (3-0) prevailed again to make it 10 wins in 10 meetings since 2016. Hudsonville Unity Christian 44, Ada Forest Hills Eastern 20 Unity Christian (3-0) is on its way back up after winning just three games a year ago. FHE (2-1) had entered the weekend No. 4 in Division 4, one slot ahead of the Crusaders. Big Rapids 33, Reed City 14 This matchup played a big part in deciding the Central State Activities Association Gold title a year ago, and could again with reigning co-champion Big Rapids (2-1) in a good spot after handing Reed City (2-1) a first loss.

8-Player

HEADLINER Climax-Scotts 56, Adrian Lenawee Christian 35 Lenawee Christian (1-2) jumped out to a 14-0 lead, but Climax-Scotts (2-1) took over from there to avenge last season’s 56-16 Regional Final loss to the eventual Division 2 champion. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.

Watch list Ishpeming 50, Gaylord St. Mary 28 It’s been common to see traditionally strong 11-player programs move to 8-player and find immediate success, and Ishpeming looks like it could be the next. The Hematites were 7-4 in 11-player last season and are off to a 2-0 start with this win over playoff regular St. Mary (2-1).

On the move Crystal Falls Forest Park 42, Norway 20 The Trojans (3-0) ended a string of two straight losses to the Knights (2-1), and after falling to them 40-6 last season. Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian 46, Bridgman 38 A week after Bridgman’s 35-game winning streak ended, NorthPointe (2-1) handed the Bees (1-2) a second-straight defeat, avenging last year’s 28-8 loss. Portland St. Patrick 56, Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 49 The Shamrocks (3-0) had lost to Sacred Heart the last two seasons, including by just a point a year ago. Vestaburg 38, Carson City-Crystal 30 Vestaburg ended its 21-game losing streak, and against a league champion from 2023.

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PHOTOS (Top) Marquette's Grant Simon (2) finds a hole to pick up several yards against Gaylord. (Middle) Suna Chami (13) breaks down the sideline during Dearborn's 28-13 win over Livonia Franklin. (Below) A Traverse City Central ball carrier works to secure possession during a 49-14 loss to Davison. (Top photo by Cara Kamps, middle photo by Douglas Bargerstock, below photo by Terry Lyons.)