Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '16

October 24, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

There was a wheel and something that looked like a magic wand. Another started out looking like the head of a caterpillar.

A number of Michigan football teams realized their sky-high dreams with Sunday’s playoff selection announcement on Fox Sports Detroit. 

But earlier that day, as is the case at the end of each fall, shaping this season’s tournament at times looked a little like finding pictures in the clouds.

Beginning last night and into this morning, MHSAA staff have been busily gathering game days and times for this weekend’s opening round. We’re assigning officials for those contests. Schools are preparing for what likely will be one of their biggest crowds of the season. And, of course, teams are preparing for what surely will be one of their most memorable games.

But before all of that could begin, we met Sunday morning with nine maps of Michigan and 272 dots that needed to be organized to set another playoffs in motion.

As we’ve done the past five seasons, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2016 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2016.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were 218 automatic qualifiers by win total – only two more than the record low set a year ago – with the final 38 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. For the second consecutive season there were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams from Class A and 11 each from Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2016

First things, first: Congratulations to five first-time playoff qualifiers  Bloomfield Hills, Detroit Delta Prep, Southfield Arts & Technology, Southfield Bradford and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian. Bloomfield Hills (Lahser and Andover) and Southfield Arts & Technology (Southfield and Southfield-Lathrup) were created by mergers of previous schools. Southfield A&T and Detroit Delta Prep are eligible for tournament play this season for the first time. Bradford and Tri-unity Christian both started programs during the latter half of the 2000s; Tri-unity qualified in 8-player after moving back to that format from 11-player this fall. Of 617 varsity football programs that played games this season (including five not eligible for the playoffs as either a first-year program or with an enrollment too high for 8-player), all but 18 have made the playoffs at least once going back to the first series in 1975.

Tie it up: We had a few ties in a few ways this season. In two situations, we had multiple teams with the same enrollment at a line between divisions. In those cases, the teams with the higher playoff point averages go to the larger divisions – so Ferndale went to Division 2 and East Lansing to Division 3 to settle one tie, and Lansing Sexton went to Division 4 and Dowagiac to Division 5 to settle the other. The additional tie came in 8-player football, with Portland St. Patrick and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian both having the same playoff point average, the same opponents’ winning percentage and drawn into the same District. A coin flip was used to determine St. Patrick as the top seed and home team both this week and next if it advances and plays the Defenders.

Local really is the rule: Division 3 provided us with a fine example to help show that we work to draw maps locally and beginning with the earliest rounds. There were at least three ways to separate the schools in Region 3 District 1: East Lansing, DeWitt, Fowlerville and Mason. DeWitt, as the westernmost of the group, could’ve been drawn southwest with R2D2’s Vicksburg, Battle Creek Harper Creek and Coldwater, replacing Chelsea. Doing so would’ve literally split the state’s regions down the middle along U.S. 127, which is a favorable picture. But protocol is to favor local matchups at the earliest rounds, and it just didn’t make sense to take DeWitt away from three schools mere minutes away when subbing it in for Chelsea would’ve created a wash in terms of travel for the other three teams in R2D2.

Sometimes, there’s no choice: But keeping a group of four local teams together often is impossible. Remember, 32 dots usually are spread out at least all over the Lower Peninsula. In Division 4, we had Grand Rapids Catholic Central, Wyoming Godwin Heights, Wyoming Kelloggsville and Grand Rapids South Christian stacked nicely along U.S. 131 – but had to send southernmost South Christian down with Benton Harbor, Three Rivers and Hudsonville Unity Christian because there was no other grouping for Allendale, which is about 20 miles west of Grand Rapids. Another incident of splitting up near-neighbors happened in Division 2; we had Lowell and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central next door to each other, but no other Grand Rapids area teams qualify. By only a few miles, Forest Hills Central is south of Lowell – so although the Rangers had shorter drives than Lowell to possible opponents both north and south, they went into a group with Portage Northern, Portage Central and Battle Creek Lakeview, and Lowell went north to join Greenville, Traverse City West and Traverse City Central.

Why coast to coast: It wasn’t lost on the committee that teams waking up looking at Lake Huron traveling to play on Lake Michigan isn’t the greatest scenario. But it was the best of the options, and we stayed consistent by setting up a possible two District trips across the Lower Peninsula. Tawas will journey to Maple City Glen Lake in Division 6 this week. With wins this week, Lincoln Alcona could end up heading to Frankfort for a Division 8 District Final. Those trips aren’t ideal, but they did allow us to keep northern Lower Peninsula teams together – and in reality, aren’t too different than when teams from the Lower Peninsula and Upper Peninsula match up the first week, as will be the case in Division 4 (Whitehall to Escanaba), Division 5 (Kalkaska to Menominee and Grayling to Kingsford), Division 6 (Charlevoix to Negaunee and Boyne City to Calumet) and Division 8 (Gaylord St. Mary to Newberry).

It’s just the math: The one unexpected oddity of this week’s matchups is Canton going back to Northville for the second week in a row, and after beating Northville 42-27 last week. But math does rule, and Northville does have a higher playoff point average despite that Week 9 loss; the Mustangs beat five teams that finished with winning records, while Canton beat three – which of course is no fault of the Chiefs. It's just the way – rarely – things work out.

At the end of the day …

In six years of being part of these discussions, this weekend’s at least seemed to be the most extensive. We had two and three versions of multiple divisions before deciding which we believed to be the best.

Only one division map – 8-player – was an absolute slam dunk. The rest received plenty of scrutiny from a committee that now includes veterans going back to the beginning but also has had some new eyes join in over the last couple of years. That variety of viewpoints certainly pays off.

And wow, did we fall into some incredible first-week matchups:

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Rockford and Hudsonville in a rematch of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red-deciding game of Week 9 (a Hudsonville 14-7 win).

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Traverse City West vs. Traverse City Central for the first time in playoff history (Central won 10-8 in Week 3).

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Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood at Detroit Country Day in a homecoming for longtime Yellowjackets coach Joe D’Angelo.

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Constantine at Schoolcraft in a matchup of longtime southwestern rivals (Schoolcraft won 20-10 in Week 8).

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Cedarville at Engadine in arguably the most intriguing of three all-U.P. 8-player matchups (Engadine won 52-42 in Week 7).

Truly, at the end of November, the best teams will have to beat the rest to finish as champions – regardless of maps, matchups, weather and anything else that won’t really factor into what eventually is settled on the field.

For many high school sports fans, it’s the favorite time of year. Join us now as we prepare for kickoff.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 1 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula. (Middle) The Division 3 map keeps four mid-Michigan teams together.

1st & Goal: 2021 Playoff Week 2 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

November 4, 2021

It’s too early to say how much numbers are telling the story of this MHSAA Football Playoffs. But as we preview this weekend’s second rounds, we have a few interesting ones to share.

MI Student AidJust more than 20 percent of the 144 teams still playing – 29 total – have not tasted defeat this fall. Another 35 teams – or 24 percent – have suffered just a single loss.

What’s more, only 12 of this weekend’s 72 games – a mere 17 percent – feature matchups of those teams. And all 12 are among games noted below as we take a glance at 11-Player District Finals and 8-Player Regional Finals.

Click here for the full schedule for each division. More than 50 of the 72 playoff football games will be broadcast on MHSAA.tv, with the 11-player Division 3 matchup of River Rouge at Detroit Martin Luther King appearing on the Bally Sports Detroit PLUS channel tonight – click for more on how to watch. (Games below are Friday unless noted.)

11-Player Division 1

Detroit Catholic Central (8-2) at West Bloomfield (9-1)

Both experienced an early fade from the statewide buzz after Week 1 losses – West Bloomfield to Rochester Adams and DCC to Clinton Township Chippewa Valley – but they’re right back where most expected after rising to Nos. 7 and 9, respectively, in Division 1 by the end of the regular season. Adams remains undefeated, and West Bloomfield went on to earn wins over Clarkston and Oxford, while DCC finished second in a Detroit Catholic League Central that has all four teams still alive in the playoffs. The Shamrocks have given up 9.4 points per game since that opening loss, and seven of West Bloomfield’s wins are by double digits.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (7-3) at Sterling Heights Stevenson (8-2), Brownstown Woodhaven (9-1) at Dearborn Fordson (8-2), Grandville (7-3) at Rockford (10-0).

11-Player Division 2

Bay City Western (8-2) at Traverse City Central (9-1)

The Warriors are scoring nearly 46 points per game, with their 459 total approaching how many they put on the scoreboard over the last three seasons combined. They fell just shy of claiming a share of a league championship, but a District title would be a program first since 2005. It would be even more well-deserved considering the opponent. Traverse City Central has been all but unstoppable since falling to DeWitt in Week 1, giving up 8.4 points per game over its nine wins with victories over playoff teams from all over the state – Marquette (60-28), Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice (56-13) and Saginaw Heritage (49-7) – to go with another championship run through the Big North Conference.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Muskegon Mona Shores (8-2) at Caledonia (9-1), Roseville (6-4) at Port Huron Northern (8-2), East Lansing (7-3) at South Lyon (10-0).  

11-Player Division 3

River Rouge (7-2) at Detroit Martin Luther King (9-1)

With a combined five MHSAA Finals appearances between them over the last five seasons, Rouge vs. King is a matchup that’s been highly-anticipated since the bracket came out two weeks ago. The Panthers won last season’s meeting 33-30 to clinch a Regional championship on the way to the finishing Division 3 runners-up at Ford Field. Rouge should be ready for the tests of another close game after concluding the regular season with a one-point victory over Southfield Arts & Technology and then coming back to defeat Harper Woods in overtime last week. King similarly has lessons from two one-score wins over Detroit Cass Tech to recall if this one stays tight, and opened the playoffs by handing Warren Fitzgerald just its second loss, 55-12.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Allen Park (8-2) at Gibraltar Carlson (9-1), Mount Pleasant (10-0) at DeWitt (9-1). SATURDAY Cedar Springs (8-2) at Muskegon (9-1).

11-Player Division 4

Grand Rapids Christian (7-3) at Hudsonville Unity Christian (10-0)

Seemingly with a little less fanfare, Hudsonville Unity Christian has been just as impressive as any of the Grand Rapids-area powers this fall, outscoring opponents by an average score of 56-11 despite a regular-season schedule that included six playoff teams. Grand Rapids Christian was one of them, and the Crusaders won their Week 2 matchup 58-21. But the Eagles are 7-1 since while navigating a similarly treacherous group of opponents, and they’ve given up only 18 points per game during that run.  

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Detroit Country Day (6-3) at Livonia Clarenceville (9-1), Freeland (9-1) at Lake Fenton (9-1). SATURDAY Croswell-Lexington (9-1) at St. Clair (8-2).

11-Player Division 5

Grand Rapids West Catholic (9-1) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (10-0)

West Catholic’s only loss came against Unity Christian (see above), and the Falcons are looking to make what would be the biggest splash so far in a playoffs already filling up with them. GRCC’s average margin of victory is 34 points – by an average score of 45-11 – with Division 3 hopeful Cedar Springs knocking that down a bit with its one-point loss in Week 8. But save for that 40-14 Unity loss, West Catholic has defeated its opponents on average 42-14. The Falcons’ wins over Muskegon Catholic Central in Week 2 and Comstock Park last week are the only losses those teams have suffered.  

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Muskegon Oakridge (8-2) at Howard City Tri County (9-1), Clare (7-3) at Kingsley (9-1), Kalamazoo United (7-3) at Berrien Springs (10-0).

11-Player Division 6

Millington (10-0) at Lansing Catholic (9-1), Saturday

The Cardinals lost a close District Final a year ago and are seeking their first title at this level of the playoffs since winning back-to-back in 2016 and 2017. They boast a defense that hasn’t given up a point in two weeks and allows only 8.6 per game on average. Millington should get a test from a Cougars offense scoring 35 points per game, including the just seven scored during a Week 9 loss to Division 7 contender Pewamo-Westphalia. Lansing Catholic bounced back last week to defeat Durand 37-6, and the Cougars have some high-pressure experience having reached the Semifinals last season and won Division 5 in 2019. Alex Watters as a sophomore was among stars on the championship team and is approaching 1,000 yards receiving as well as leading the team in rushing touchdowns.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Montague (7-3) at Reed City (9-1), Calumet (8-2) at Negaunee (8-2). SATURDAY Michigan Center (9-1) at Constantine (10-0).

11-Player Division 7

New Lothrop (7-3) at Pewamo-Westphalia (10-0)

Just to get it out of the way, New Lothrop has its most losses in a season since 2009 – and that fact means very little in this matchup. The Hornets came back off last season’s Division 7 championship with a loaded nonleague schedule to go with an improved conference, and those three defeats came against teams – Jackson Lumen Christi, Montrose and Frankenmuth – which are a combined 26-4 after New Lothrop handed the Rams a loss in their rematch last week. Pewamo-Westphalia’s run has looked similar with four league champions filling its nonleague slate including last week’s playoff opener opponent Ithaca. Fun fact to remember: When P-W defeated New Lothrop in the 2017 and 2019 playoffs, it went on to win the Division 7 title, and New Lothrop did the same after defeating P-W in 2018.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (9-1) at Jackson Lumen Christi (9-1), Detroit Loyola (5-4) at Detroit Central (10-0). SATURDAY Charlevoix (8-1) at Ishpeming Westwood (9-1).

11-Player Division 8

Addison (9-1) at Hudson (10-0)

Addison entered the postseason No. 3 in Division 8 playoff points, with Hudson holding down the top spot – and all four teams in the District ranking among the top 14. Hudson has shut out four of its last five opponents and is giving up just 6.2 points per game, with wins over larger foes Ida, Clinton and Ithaca highlighting a resume that includes the Tigers’ first perfect regular season since 2011. Addison has its winningest season since 2006, with an offense averaging nearly 42 points per game leading a charge that’s included victories over larger Michigan Center and reigning champion Centreville in last week’s District Semifinal.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Sand Creek (7-3) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (9-1), Fowler (7-3) at Breckenridge (8-2), Iron Mountain (7-3) at Beal City (9-1).

8-Player Division 1

Indian River Inland Lakes (10-0) at Suttons Bay (10-0)

Suttons Bay’s only two losses over the last three seasons have come in Division 1 championship games, but this may be as titanic a matchup as the Norsemen have faced short of the Finals during that run. These two were supposed to meet in a Semifinal last season that was unable to be played, and that just adds another wrinkle to the anticipation. Inland Lakes averages 58 points per game, and Suttons Bay gives up 8.8. Somewhere in the middle, the winner will not only earn a Regional title but is assured to host next week’s Semifinal as well.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Rudyard (8-2) at Newberry (8-2), Mendon (8-2) at Martin (10-0), Britton Deerfield (9-1) at Adrian Lenawee Christian (10-0).

8-Player Division 2

Kinde North Huron (10-0) at Au Gres-Sims (10-0)

Just when it looks like Inland Lakes’ offense can’t be matched this season (see above), here come the Wolverines averaging 61 points per game with a season-low of 48 against a Hillman team still alive on the other side of the bracket. It’s been a great comeback story after Au Gres-Sims won just a game a year ago and three in 2019, and it can add another highlight by avenging last season’s 66-12 playoff loss to North Huron. That’s of course easier written than done, as the Warriors haven’t slowed since reaching last season’s Semifinals and even avenged one of their two 2020 defeats.  

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Colon (9-1) at Morrice (10-0), Crystal Falls Forest Park (8-2) at Powers North Central (10-0), Hillman (7-3) at Marion (9-1).

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PHOTO Muskegon Heights Academy, here against Muskegon Catholic Central, will face Carson City-Crystal on Friday for a Division 8 District championship. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)