Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '16

October 24, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

There was a wheel and something that looked like a magic wand. Another started out looking like the head of a caterpillar.

A number of Michigan football teams realized their sky-high dreams with Sunday’s playoff selection announcement on Fox Sports Detroit. 

But earlier that day, as is the case at the end of each fall, shaping this season’s tournament at times looked a little like finding pictures in the clouds.

Beginning last night and into this morning, MHSAA staff have been busily gathering game days and times for this weekend’s opening round. We’re assigning officials for those contests. Schools are preparing for what likely will be one of their biggest crowds of the season. And, of course, teams are preparing for what surely will be one of their most memorable games.

But before all of that could begin, we met Sunday morning with nine maps of Michigan and 272 dots that needed to be organized to set another playoffs in motion.

As we’ve done the past five seasons, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2016 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2016.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were 218 automatic qualifiers by win total – only two more than the record low set a year ago – with the final 38 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. For the second consecutive season there were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams from Class A and 11 each from Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2016

First things, first: Congratulations to five first-time playoff qualifiers  Bloomfield Hills, Detroit Delta Prep, Southfield Arts & Technology, Southfield Bradford and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian. Bloomfield Hills (Lahser and Andover) and Southfield Arts & Technology (Southfield and Southfield-Lathrup) were created by mergers of previous schools. Southfield A&T and Detroit Delta Prep are eligible for tournament play this season for the first time. Bradford and Tri-unity Christian both started programs during the latter half of the 2000s; Tri-unity qualified in 8-player after moving back to that format from 11-player this fall. Of 617 varsity football programs that played games this season (including five not eligible for the playoffs as either a first-year program or with an enrollment too high for 8-player), all but 18 have made the playoffs at least once going back to the first series in 1975.

Tie it up: We had a few ties in a few ways this season. In two situations, we had multiple teams with the same enrollment at a line between divisions. In those cases, the teams with the higher playoff point averages go to the larger divisions – so Ferndale went to Division 2 and East Lansing to Division 3 to settle one tie, and Lansing Sexton went to Division 4 and Dowagiac to Division 5 to settle the other. The additional tie came in 8-player football, with Portland St. Patrick and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian both having the same playoff point average, the same opponents’ winning percentage and drawn into the same District. A coin flip was used to determine St. Patrick as the top seed and home team both this week and next if it advances and plays the Defenders.

Local really is the rule: Division 3 provided us with a fine example to help show that we work to draw maps locally and beginning with the earliest rounds. There were at least three ways to separate the schools in Region 3 District 1: East Lansing, DeWitt, Fowlerville and Mason. DeWitt, as the westernmost of the group, could’ve been drawn southwest with R2D2’s Vicksburg, Battle Creek Harper Creek and Coldwater, replacing Chelsea. Doing so would’ve literally split the state’s regions down the middle along U.S. 127, which is a favorable picture. But protocol is to favor local matchups at the earliest rounds, and it just didn’t make sense to take DeWitt away from three schools mere minutes away when subbing it in for Chelsea would’ve created a wash in terms of travel for the other three teams in R2D2.

Sometimes, there’s no choice: But keeping a group of four local teams together often is impossible. Remember, 32 dots usually are spread out at least all over the Lower Peninsula. In Division 4, we had Grand Rapids Catholic Central, Wyoming Godwin Heights, Wyoming Kelloggsville and Grand Rapids South Christian stacked nicely along U.S. 131 – but had to send southernmost South Christian down with Benton Harbor, Three Rivers and Hudsonville Unity Christian because there was no other grouping for Allendale, which is about 20 miles west of Grand Rapids. Another incident of splitting up near-neighbors happened in Division 2; we had Lowell and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central next door to each other, but no other Grand Rapids area teams qualify. By only a few miles, Forest Hills Central is south of Lowell – so although the Rangers had shorter drives than Lowell to possible opponents both north and south, they went into a group with Portage Northern, Portage Central and Battle Creek Lakeview, and Lowell went north to join Greenville, Traverse City West and Traverse City Central.

Why coast to coast: It wasn’t lost on the committee that teams waking up looking at Lake Huron traveling to play on Lake Michigan isn’t the greatest scenario. But it was the best of the options, and we stayed consistent by setting up a possible two District trips across the Lower Peninsula. Tawas will journey to Maple City Glen Lake in Division 6 this week. With wins this week, Lincoln Alcona could end up heading to Frankfort for a Division 8 District Final. Those trips aren’t ideal, but they did allow us to keep northern Lower Peninsula teams together – and in reality, aren’t too different than when teams from the Lower Peninsula and Upper Peninsula match up the first week, as will be the case in Division 4 (Whitehall to Escanaba), Division 5 (Kalkaska to Menominee and Grayling to Kingsford), Division 6 (Charlevoix to Negaunee and Boyne City to Calumet) and Division 8 (Gaylord St. Mary to Newberry).

It’s just the math: The one unexpected oddity of this week’s matchups is Canton going back to Northville for the second week in a row, and after beating Northville 42-27 last week. But math does rule, and Northville does have a higher playoff point average despite that Week 9 loss; the Mustangs beat five teams that finished with winning records, while Canton beat three – which of course is no fault of the Chiefs. It's just the way – rarely – things work out.

At the end of the day …

In six years of being part of these discussions, this weekend’s at least seemed to be the most extensive. We had two and three versions of multiple divisions before deciding which we believed to be the best.

Only one division map – 8-player – was an absolute slam dunk. The rest received plenty of scrutiny from a committee that now includes veterans going back to the beginning but also has had some new eyes join in over the last couple of years. That variety of viewpoints certainly pays off.

And wow, did we fall into some incredible first-week matchups:

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Rockford and Hudsonville in a rematch of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red-deciding game of Week 9 (a Hudsonville 14-7 win).

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Traverse City West vs. Traverse City Central for the first time in playoff history (Central won 10-8 in Week 3).

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Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood at Detroit Country Day in a homecoming for longtime Yellowjackets coach Joe D’Angelo.

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Constantine at Schoolcraft in a matchup of longtime southwestern rivals (Schoolcraft won 20-10 in Week 8).

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Cedarville at Engadine in arguably the most intriguing of three all-U.P. 8-player matchups (Engadine won 52-42 in Week 7).

Truly, at the end of November, the best teams will have to beat the rest to finish as champions – regardless of maps, matchups, weather and anything else that won’t really factor into what eventually is settled on the field.

For many high school sports fans, it’s the favorite time of year. Join us now as we prepare for kickoff.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 1 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula. (Middle) The Division 3 map keeps four mid-Michigan teams together.

1st & Goal: 2021 Playoff Week 3 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

November 11, 2021

The 8-player football season is down to its final six games, and the 11-player season is down to its final three weeks – and every matchup at this point in the MHSAA Playoffs has a story to tell.

MI Student AidWe preview 12 of those below, switching things up with the 8-Player Semifinals first as we join those contenders in preparing for next weekend’s trip to the Finals at Northern Michigan University’s Superior Dome.

All four 8-Player Semifinals and 31 of 36 football games total this weekend will be streamed live on MHSAA.tv, with Bally Sports Detroit broadcasting the 11-player Division 1 matchup between Rochester Adams and West Bloomfield. Click for how to watch.

8-Player Division 1

Martin (11-0) at Adrian Lenawee Christian (11-0), Friday

Lenawee Christian’s winning streak since switching to 8-player last season has reached 22 games, and they have yet to win one by only single digits – Climax-Scotts came closest this fall in a 16-point Week 6 loss. But all of that could change this week; Martin has put together two perfect regular seasons over its three in 8-player, and Mendon (in losses by eight and 19) is the only team to get within 40 points of the Clippers this season.

Rudyard (9-2) at Suttons Bay (11-0), Saturday

By defeating previously-unbeaten Indian River Inland Lakes 53-18 last week, Suttons Bay ran its record over the last three seasons to a combined 33-2, with both losses in Division 1 championship games. No one has gotten closer than 18 points to the Norseman this fall, and the last nine wins have all been by at least 30 points. Enter Rudyard, which is holding opponents to only 11 points per game and features a two-way threat on offense in senior quarterback EJ Suggitt (853 yards/17 TDs passing, 362 yards/11 TDs rushing). The Bulldogs have avenged both of their regular-season losses during the playoffs.

8-Player Division 2

Marion (10-1) at Powers North Central (11-0), Saturday

To say the Jets have been unchallenged this season is becoming an understatement – they’ve outscored their 10 opponents on the field by an average of 61-4, and they too have won 22 straight games. But Marion is enjoying historic success, reaching double-digit wins for the first time since 1992 with the only loss to Suttons Bay (see above) and no other opponent getting closer than 15 points. Junior quarterback Mason Salisbury can do it all; he’s run for 1,567 yards (11 per carry) and 30 touchdowns and thrown for another 908 yards and 12 scores.

Colon (10-1) at Au Gres-Sims (11-0), Saturday

The Wolverines have reached their previous high point, as in 2018 they also entered a Semifinal 11-0 before falling that game to Pickford. This time, Au Gres-Sims features a pair of 1,000-yard rushers in senior Mason VanSickle (1,434/21 TDS) and junior Keagan Bender (1,209/16), and VanSickle also has thrown for 2,465 yards and 40 touchdowns – nearly half to senior Evan Saunders (1,061 yards/17 TDs). They surely will test a Colon defense allowing only 12 points per game. But the Magi have seen many of the rest of the best, with the only loss to Lenawee Christian (see above) and wins the last two weeks over previous unbeatens Portland St. Patrick and Morrice.

11-Player Division 1

Dearborn Fordson (9-2) at Belleville (10-1), Saturday

Fordson’s two losses this season were by a combined five points, and the first came Week 5 against Belleville 21-19 in a game that ended up helping the Tigers finish atop the Kensington Lakes Activities Association East. The Tractors’ defense has been sound – they are giving up only 17 points per game, and those 21 tied Belleville’s second-lowest output of the season. But Fordson’s challenge of scoring more in this rematch faces a tough obstacle as well with the Tigers giving up only 13 points per game this season including a combined 19 over their last three games.  

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY West Bloomfield (10-1) at Rochester Adams (11-0), Macomb Dakota (8-3) at Sterling Heights Stevenson (9-2). SATURDAY Grand Blanc (11-0) at Rockford (11-0).

11-Player Division 2

Traverse City Central (10-1) at Caledonia (10-1), Friday

Central has followed up last season’s first Semifinal trip since 1998 with a record offensive performance. The Trojans’ 537 points are their most since at least 1950 (according to Michigan-football.com), and they’ve scored 49 or more five straight games and 42 or more in nine games total. Caledonia may not be fazed. The Fighting Scots are giving up 13 points per game, and that includes allowing only 17 to Rockford (averaging 40 per game) and 12 to Muskegon Mona Shores (44 ppg) over the last five weeks. But the comparison also cuts the other way; Central’s defense is giving up just 13 points per game as well, and Caledonia’s offense is grinding out 35.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Portage Central (9-2) at South Lyon (11-0), Livonia Franklin (6-5) at Waterford Mott (7-4). SATURDAY Roseville (7-4) at Warren De La Salle Collegiate (10-0).

11-Player Division 3

Cedar Springs (9-2) at DeWitt (10-1), Saturday (at Grand Ledge)

Cedar Springs’ 21-14 win over Muskegon last week may have resulted in some double takes – the Big Reds had won nine straight District titles – but the result definitely falls in with the Red Hawks’ body of work this season. Grand Rapids Catholic Central puts up a strong argument as one of the best teams in Michigan regardless of division, the Cedar Springs fell to the Cougars by just a point in Week 8. The other loss came to Rockford. The question this time will revolve around how much the Red Hawks’ defense can match DeWitt’s offense, which averages 48 ppg. Muskegon averaged 46 before last week’s meeting, but the Panthers put up 50 on previously-undefeated Mount Pleasant in their District Final.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Parma Western (8-3) at St. Joseph (7-4), Mason (9-2) at Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice (8-3) (at Lawrence Tech), Allen Park (9-2) at Detroit Martin Luther King (10-1).

11-Player Division 4

Detroit Country Day (7-3) at Chelsea (11-0), Friday

Country Day’s record really is irrelevant at this point; the Yellowjackets’ losses were to Division 2 South Lyon and Division 3 Brother Rice and Harper Woods, and South Lyon and Brother Rice are still playing. More telling might be how Country Day has played over the last five weeks – the reigning Division 4 champion is 4-1 giving up 13 points per game and having scored a combined 84 over its first two playoff contests. It’s a good match for how Chelsea has been looking consistently all season; the Bulldogs are giving up 12 points per game and scoring 43, and that’s with only one game under 40 this fall.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Cadillac (9-2) at Hudsonville Unity Christian (11-0) (at Jenison), Grand Rapids South Christian (8-3) at Edwardsburg (11-0), Croswell-Lexington (10-1) at Freeland (10-1).

11-Player Division 5

Kingsley (10-1) at Frankenmuth (11-0), Saturday

A rematch of last season Division 5 Final with Grand Rapids Catholic Central is a possibility for next week, but the Eagles cannot overlook a Kingsley team that has reached at least Regional Finals three of the last four seasons and is eight points from also being undefeated this fall. The Stags lone loss was 38-30 to Division 7 contender Traverse City St. Francis, and minus that game Kingsley is giving up only 7.8 points per contest. Frankenmuth’s defense should be ready to match – the Eagles are giving up only 9.3 points per game – but must be ready for a close game that could resemble their wins over New Lothrop, Freeland and Goodrich.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Muskegon Oakridge (9-2) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (11-0), Kalamazoo United (8-3) at Portland (9-2), Corunna (7-4) at Marine City (11-0).

11-Player Division 6

Montague (8-3) at Lansing Catholic (10-1), Saturday

Reigning champion Montague has worked its way back to this point, and a broader look at the Wildcats’ season shows they’ve really been in the mix all along. Montague earned a share of the West Michigan Conference title, which is never a small feat, and the losses came to teams in Division 4 (Edwardsburg, Whitehall) and Division 5 (Portland) that all are still playing after winning District titles. The Cougars impressed in a big way with last week’s 28-8 win over previously-undefeated Millington, and an offense averaging 34 points per game may need to be the difference this time. Both teams are giving up only 14 points per game.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Michigan Center (10-1) at Clinton (9-2). SATURDAY Calumet (9-2) at Standish-Sterling (9-2), Ecorse (8-3) at Warren Michigan Collegiate (9-2).

11-Player Division 7

Lawton (11-0) at Muskegon Catholic Central (10-1), Friday

The Blue Devils put together their second perfect regular season in three years this fall, and a win this weekend would plant a major exclamation mark on that recent work. Lawton is seeking its first Regional title and rolling, especially on the defensive side of the ball where its giving up only 8.5 points per game. This will be MCC’s seventh-straight game against a playoff team, which makes its 34 points scored and 14 points allowed per game even more impressive. The Crusaders are seeking their first Regional title since 2016’s undefeated Division 8 run.  

Other Regional Finals SATURDAY Ishpeming Westwood (10-1) at Traverse City St. Francis (11-0), Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker (9-2) at Pewamo-Westphalia (11-0), Detroit Loyola (6-4) at Jackson Lumen Christi (10-1).

11-Player Division 8

Clarkston Everest Collegiate (9-2) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (10-1), Saturday

While not this group of players, Whiteford as a program has familiarity with this level of the tournament having made consecutive Finals in 2016 and 2017 and winning Division 8 to cap the latter run (when the Bobcats also defeated Everest in a Regional Final). But this will be Whiteford’s first playoff game this season against a team from outside its league. Everest has that bit of unfamiliarity on its side, and has been on its game outscoring its first two playoff opponents by a combined 88-0. The Mountaineers reached the Semifinals last season but were unable to play that round – so surely there’s some added motivation to return.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Carson City-Crystal (10-1) at Beal City (10-1), Breckenridge (9-2) at Ubly (11-0), White Pigeon (10-1) at Hudson (11-0).

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PHOTO Marion quarterback Mason Salisbury (7) works to get to the edge during a Week 8 win over Vestaburg. (Click for more from High School Sports Scene.)