Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '16

October 24, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

There was a wheel and something that looked like a magic wand. Another started out looking like the head of a caterpillar.

A number of Michigan football teams realized their sky-high dreams with Sunday’s playoff selection announcement on Fox Sports Detroit. 

But earlier that day, as is the case at the end of each fall, shaping this season’s tournament at times looked a little like finding pictures in the clouds.

Beginning last night and into this morning, MHSAA staff have been busily gathering game days and times for this weekend’s opening round. We’re assigning officials for those contests. Schools are preparing for what likely will be one of their biggest crowds of the season. And, of course, teams are preparing for what surely will be one of their most memorable games.

But before all of that could begin, we met Sunday morning with nine maps of Michigan and 272 dots that needed to be organized to set another playoffs in motion.

As we’ve done the past five seasons, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2016 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2016.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were 218 automatic qualifiers by win total – only two more than the record low set a year ago – with the final 38 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. For the second consecutive season there were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams from Class A and 11 each from Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2016

First things, first: Congratulations to five first-time playoff qualifiers  Bloomfield Hills, Detroit Delta Prep, Southfield Arts & Technology, Southfield Bradford and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian. Bloomfield Hills (Lahser and Andover) and Southfield Arts & Technology (Southfield and Southfield-Lathrup) were created by mergers of previous schools. Southfield A&T and Detroit Delta Prep are eligible for tournament play this season for the first time. Bradford and Tri-unity Christian both started programs during the latter half of the 2000s; Tri-unity qualified in 8-player after moving back to that format from 11-player this fall. Of 617 varsity football programs that played games this season (including five not eligible for the playoffs as either a first-year program or with an enrollment too high for 8-player), all but 18 have made the playoffs at least once going back to the first series in 1975.

Tie it up: We had a few ties in a few ways this season. In two situations, we had multiple teams with the same enrollment at a line between divisions. In those cases, the teams with the higher playoff point averages go to the larger divisions – so Ferndale went to Division 2 and East Lansing to Division 3 to settle one tie, and Lansing Sexton went to Division 4 and Dowagiac to Division 5 to settle the other. The additional tie came in 8-player football, with Portland St. Patrick and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian both having the same playoff point average, the same opponents’ winning percentage and drawn into the same District. A coin flip was used to determine St. Patrick as the top seed and home team both this week and next if it advances and plays the Defenders.

Local really is the rule: Division 3 provided us with a fine example to help show that we work to draw maps locally and beginning with the earliest rounds. There were at least three ways to separate the schools in Region 3 District 1: East Lansing, DeWitt, Fowlerville and Mason. DeWitt, as the westernmost of the group, could’ve been drawn southwest with R2D2’s Vicksburg, Battle Creek Harper Creek and Coldwater, replacing Chelsea. Doing so would’ve literally split the state’s regions down the middle along U.S. 127, which is a favorable picture. But protocol is to favor local matchups at the earliest rounds, and it just didn’t make sense to take DeWitt away from three schools mere minutes away when subbing it in for Chelsea would’ve created a wash in terms of travel for the other three teams in R2D2.

Sometimes, there’s no choice: But keeping a group of four local teams together often is impossible. Remember, 32 dots usually are spread out at least all over the Lower Peninsula. In Division 4, we had Grand Rapids Catholic Central, Wyoming Godwin Heights, Wyoming Kelloggsville and Grand Rapids South Christian stacked nicely along U.S. 131 – but had to send southernmost South Christian down with Benton Harbor, Three Rivers and Hudsonville Unity Christian because there was no other grouping for Allendale, which is about 20 miles west of Grand Rapids. Another incident of splitting up near-neighbors happened in Division 2; we had Lowell and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central next door to each other, but no other Grand Rapids area teams qualify. By only a few miles, Forest Hills Central is south of Lowell – so although the Rangers had shorter drives than Lowell to possible opponents both north and south, they went into a group with Portage Northern, Portage Central and Battle Creek Lakeview, and Lowell went north to join Greenville, Traverse City West and Traverse City Central.

Why coast to coast: It wasn’t lost on the committee that teams waking up looking at Lake Huron traveling to play on Lake Michigan isn’t the greatest scenario. But it was the best of the options, and we stayed consistent by setting up a possible two District trips across the Lower Peninsula. Tawas will journey to Maple City Glen Lake in Division 6 this week. With wins this week, Lincoln Alcona could end up heading to Frankfort for a Division 8 District Final. Those trips aren’t ideal, but they did allow us to keep northern Lower Peninsula teams together – and in reality, aren’t too different than when teams from the Lower Peninsula and Upper Peninsula match up the first week, as will be the case in Division 4 (Whitehall to Escanaba), Division 5 (Kalkaska to Menominee and Grayling to Kingsford), Division 6 (Charlevoix to Negaunee and Boyne City to Calumet) and Division 8 (Gaylord St. Mary to Newberry).

It’s just the math: The one unexpected oddity of this week’s matchups is Canton going back to Northville for the second week in a row, and after beating Northville 42-27 last week. But math does rule, and Northville does have a higher playoff point average despite that Week 9 loss; the Mustangs beat five teams that finished with winning records, while Canton beat three – which of course is no fault of the Chiefs. It's just the way – rarely – things work out.

At the end of the day …

In six years of being part of these discussions, this weekend’s at least seemed to be the most extensive. We had two and three versions of multiple divisions before deciding which we believed to be the best.

Only one division map – 8-player – was an absolute slam dunk. The rest received plenty of scrutiny from a committee that now includes veterans going back to the beginning but also has had some new eyes join in over the last couple of years. That variety of viewpoints certainly pays off.

And wow, did we fall into some incredible first-week matchups:

• 

Rockford and Hudsonville in a rematch of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red-deciding game of Week 9 (a Hudsonville 14-7 win).

• 

Traverse City West vs. Traverse City Central for the first time in playoff history (Central won 10-8 in Week 3).

• 

Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood at Detroit Country Day in a homecoming for longtime Yellowjackets coach Joe D’Angelo.

• 

Constantine at Schoolcraft in a matchup of longtime southwestern rivals (Schoolcraft won 20-10 in Week 8).

• 

Cedarville at Engadine in arguably the most intriguing of three all-U.P. 8-player matchups (Engadine won 52-42 in Week 7).

Truly, at the end of November, the best teams will have to beat the rest to finish as champions – regardless of maps, matchups, weather and anything else that won’t really factor into what eventually is settled on the field.

For many high school sports fans, it’s the favorite time of year. Join us now as we prepare for kickoff.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 1 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula. (Middle) The Division 3 map keeps four mid-Michigan teams together.

1st & Goal: 2022 Week 5 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 23, 2022

This weekend is the midpoint of this regular season, and stands to be a turning point for several teams this season.

MI Student AidEight games will match teams undefeated so far this fall. A number of others will pit league title contenders against each other, with the Port Huron and Flint areas, Detroit Catholic League, Macomb County and rural Greater Lansing enjoying some of their best annual rivalry games over the next two days.

Games are Friday unless noted. Click for the full schedule from MHSAA.com and check out the broadcast schedule from MHSAA.tv.

Bay & Thumb

Frankenmuth (4-0) at Freeland (4-0)

This has become a league matchup with statewide appeal over the last few seasons. Frankenmuth has won the last three meetings, last season’s deciding the Tri-Valley Conference 10 title. But both went on to reach MHSAA Semifinals, Freeland in Division 4 and the Eagles in Division 5. Frankenmuth has handed lone losses this fall to Goodrich and Birch Run and given up only 30 points total. Freeland’s defense literally has been one better, giving up only 29 points so far.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Flint Hamady (4-0) at Flint Beecher (2-2), Port Huron Northern (4-0) at Port Huron (3-1), Sanford Meridian (3-1) at Gladwin (4-0), Millington (4-0) at Standish Sterling (4-0).

Greater Detroit

Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (4-0) at Macomb Dakota (4-0)

This is the midpoint as well in the Macomb Area Conference Red schedule – and these are the two contenders left without a defeat. They are frequently at the top, although last season they tied for third in the league standings. Dakota has won the last three meetings (starting with the 2019 playoffs), and both have done the work to make this arguably the best matchup in Week 5. Chippewa Valley’s season-opening win over Detroit Catholic Central keeps looking better and better. Same scenario for the Cougars, who defeated Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice in Week 1 and have given up 17 points over its four victories.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY West Bloomfield (4-0) at Rochester Adams (3-1), Detroit Catholic Central (3-1) at Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice (2-2), Brighton (4-0) at Northville (4-0), Detroit Central (4-0) at Detroit Southeastern (3-1).

Mid-Michigan

Bay City Western (3-1) at Mount Pleasant (4-0)

The Warriors have looked like a Saginaw Valley League North contender especially the last two weeks with 20-plus point wins over Traverse City West and Midland Dow, and was on the cusp last season while losing to Dow by a point and Mount Pleasant 31-16. Western can become the team to chase this weekend by avenging that defeat to the Oilers, who are coming off one-score wins over Cadillac and Traverse City Central. Mount Pleasant has won the last seven games in this series.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Holt (2-2) at DeWitt (2-2), Grand Blanc (2-2) at East Lansing (4-0), Pewamo-Westphalia (3-1) at Fowler (4-0), Mason (4-0) at Haslett (3-1).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Cadillac (2-2) at Gaylord (3-1)

With the Big North Conference now at four teams for football, and these two coming off wins in their league openers, this matchup will decide a share of the BNC championship. Gaylord bounced back nicely from its Week 3 loss to Marquette to defeat Petoskey last week, while Cadillac has impressive one-score losses to Midland and Mount Pleasant. The Vikings won last year’s meeting with Gaylord 22-0, their fourth-straight victory in the series.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Kalkaska (2-2) at Boyne City (4-0), East Jordan (2-2) at Maple City Glen Lake (3-1), Lake City (2-2) at McBain (2-2). SATURDAY Sault Ste. Marie (4-0) at Ogemaw Heights (2-2).

Southeast & Border

Parma Western (2-2) at Jackson Northwest (3-1)

Jackson Northwest is on the rise as its third win last week guaranteed the Mounties their best finish since 2013 and equaled their number of victories the last three seasons combined. And suddenly, Northwest could figure into the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference race with four of the other top six teams in the standings coming up over the next five weeks. Western certainly can’t be overlooked among them; its losses were by seven points to Detroit Country Day and five to Jackson Lumen Christi.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grass Lake (2-2) at Michigan Center (1-3), Hanover-Horton (2-2) at Napoleon (4-0), Petersburg Summerfield (2-2) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (4-0), Chelsea (3-1) at Adrian (3-2).

Southwest Corridor

Plainwell (3-1) at Edwardsburg (3-1)

Edwardsburg’s Wolverine Conference winning streak lives at 35, but not without two of its most significant challenges over the last six seasons. Three Rivers pushed the Eddies to within eight points in Week 2, and Edwardsburg escaped with a three-point win over Vicksburg last week thanks to a last-second field goal. Plainwell has made the playoffs nine of the last 10 seasons (plus 2020, when all teams qualified) and would be a candidate to challenge the Eddies too – although Edwardsburg won last year’s matchup 49-0.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY St. Joseph (3-1) at Portage Central (2-2), Homer (3-1) at Union City (3-1), Constantine (3-1) at Watervliet (3-1). SATURDAY South Lyon East (3-1) at Paw Paw (3-1).

Upper Peninsula

Bark River-Harris (3-1) at Iron Mountain (3-1)

Iron Mountain has won all six recent meetings, including one in the playoffs. But Bark River-Harris gave the Mountaineers their best matchup of those six last season, falling only 28-22. They play in different divisions of the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference, and both are championship contenders in their respective divisions – plus Bark River-Harris is ranked No. 6 and Iron Mountain No. 10 in Division 8 by the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Negaunee (4-0) at Ishpeming (2-2), Houghton (3-1) at Hancock (1-3), Gladstone (4-0) at Marquette (1-3), Escanaba (1-3) at Kingsford (2-2).

West Michigan

Caledonia (4-0) at Grandville (4-0)

This, along with Rockford/East Kentwood matchup below, will bring the number of teams leading the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red from four to two by Friday night’s end. The intrigue here is both are undefeated overall – plus Grandville sees Rockford next week, and Caledonia sees East Kentwood. Grandville owns a 4-2 edge in this series since Caledonia moved to the Red in 2016, but Caledonia has won two of the last three including 24-14 last fall. The Fighting Scots are stoppers; they’ve given up 28 points total so far. But opening wins over Grand Blanc and Byron Center put Grandville into the spotlight quickly this season.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Rockford (4-0) at East Kentwood (3-1), Beal City (4-0) at Evart (4-0), Ada Forest Hills Eastern (4-0) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (4-0), Zeeland West (4-0) at Muskegon (3-1).

8-Player

Brown City (4-0) at Martin (4-0)

Brown City is playing 8-player this fall for the first time and showed the fast start isn’t beginners’ luck again last week with a 58-40 win over perennial Finals contender Suttons Bay. Defeating Martin would be a similar if not more substantial accomplishment. The Clippers haven’t given up a point since Week 2 and moved up to No. 1 in Division 1 this week, while Brown City is No. 5.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Climax-Scotts (4-0) at Athens (3-1), Eau Claire (3-1) at Bridgman (4-0), Breckenridge (3-1) at Morrice (4-0). SATURDAY Merrill (4-0) at Portland St. Patrick (3-1).

Second Half’s weekly “1st & Goal” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTO Detroit Cass Tech quarterback Leeshaun Mumpfield drops back to pass against Detroit Renaissance during a Week 3 win. (Photo by Chardonne’ U of Olivia B. Photography.)