Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '16

October 24, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

There was a wheel and something that looked like a magic wand. Another started out looking like the head of a caterpillar.

A number of Michigan football teams realized their sky-high dreams with Sunday’s playoff selection announcement on Fox Sports Detroit. 

But earlier that day, as is the case at the end of each fall, shaping this season’s tournament at times looked a little like finding pictures in the clouds.

Beginning last night and into this morning, MHSAA staff have been busily gathering game days and times for this weekend’s opening round. We’re assigning officials for those contests. Schools are preparing for what likely will be one of their biggest crowds of the season. And, of course, teams are preparing for what surely will be one of their most memorable games.

But before all of that could begin, we met Sunday morning with nine maps of Michigan and 272 dots that needed to be organized to set another playoffs in motion.

As we’ve done the past five seasons, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2016 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2016.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were 218 automatic qualifiers by win total – only two more than the record low set a year ago – with the final 38 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. For the second consecutive season there were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams from Class A and 11 each from Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2016

First things, first: Congratulations to five first-time playoff qualifiers  Bloomfield Hills, Detroit Delta Prep, Southfield Arts & Technology, Southfield Bradford and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian. Bloomfield Hills (Lahser and Andover) and Southfield Arts & Technology (Southfield and Southfield-Lathrup) were created by mergers of previous schools. Southfield A&T and Detroit Delta Prep are eligible for tournament play this season for the first time. Bradford and Tri-unity Christian both started programs during the latter half of the 2000s; Tri-unity qualified in 8-player after moving back to that format from 11-player this fall. Of 617 varsity football programs that played games this season (including five not eligible for the playoffs as either a first-year program or with an enrollment too high for 8-player), all but 18 have made the playoffs at least once going back to the first series in 1975.

Tie it up: We had a few ties in a few ways this season. In two situations, we had multiple teams with the same enrollment at a line between divisions. In those cases, the teams with the higher playoff point averages go to the larger divisions – so Ferndale went to Division 2 and East Lansing to Division 3 to settle one tie, and Lansing Sexton went to Division 4 and Dowagiac to Division 5 to settle the other. The additional tie came in 8-player football, with Portland St. Patrick and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian both having the same playoff point average, the same opponents’ winning percentage and drawn into the same District. A coin flip was used to determine St. Patrick as the top seed and home team both this week and next if it advances and plays the Defenders.

Local really is the rule: Division 3 provided us with a fine example to help show that we work to draw maps locally and beginning with the earliest rounds. There were at least three ways to separate the schools in Region 3 District 1: East Lansing, DeWitt, Fowlerville and Mason. DeWitt, as the westernmost of the group, could’ve been drawn southwest with R2D2’s Vicksburg, Battle Creek Harper Creek and Coldwater, replacing Chelsea. Doing so would’ve literally split the state’s regions down the middle along U.S. 127, which is a favorable picture. But protocol is to favor local matchups at the earliest rounds, and it just didn’t make sense to take DeWitt away from three schools mere minutes away when subbing it in for Chelsea would’ve created a wash in terms of travel for the other three teams in R2D2.

Sometimes, there’s no choice: But keeping a group of four local teams together often is impossible. Remember, 32 dots usually are spread out at least all over the Lower Peninsula. In Division 4, we had Grand Rapids Catholic Central, Wyoming Godwin Heights, Wyoming Kelloggsville and Grand Rapids South Christian stacked nicely along U.S. 131 – but had to send southernmost South Christian down with Benton Harbor, Three Rivers and Hudsonville Unity Christian because there was no other grouping for Allendale, which is about 20 miles west of Grand Rapids. Another incident of splitting up near-neighbors happened in Division 2; we had Lowell and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central next door to each other, but no other Grand Rapids area teams qualify. By only a few miles, Forest Hills Central is south of Lowell – so although the Rangers had shorter drives than Lowell to possible opponents both north and south, they went into a group with Portage Northern, Portage Central and Battle Creek Lakeview, and Lowell went north to join Greenville, Traverse City West and Traverse City Central.

Why coast to coast: It wasn’t lost on the committee that teams waking up looking at Lake Huron traveling to play on Lake Michigan isn’t the greatest scenario. But it was the best of the options, and we stayed consistent by setting up a possible two District trips across the Lower Peninsula. Tawas will journey to Maple City Glen Lake in Division 6 this week. With wins this week, Lincoln Alcona could end up heading to Frankfort for a Division 8 District Final. Those trips aren’t ideal, but they did allow us to keep northern Lower Peninsula teams together – and in reality, aren’t too different than when teams from the Lower Peninsula and Upper Peninsula match up the first week, as will be the case in Division 4 (Whitehall to Escanaba), Division 5 (Kalkaska to Menominee and Grayling to Kingsford), Division 6 (Charlevoix to Negaunee and Boyne City to Calumet) and Division 8 (Gaylord St. Mary to Newberry).

It’s just the math: The one unexpected oddity of this week’s matchups is Canton going back to Northville for the second week in a row, and after beating Northville 42-27 last week. But math does rule, and Northville does have a higher playoff point average despite that Week 9 loss; the Mustangs beat five teams that finished with winning records, while Canton beat three – which of course is no fault of the Chiefs. It's just the way – rarely – things work out.

At the end of the day …

In six years of being part of these discussions, this weekend’s at least seemed to be the most extensive. We had two and three versions of multiple divisions before deciding which we believed to be the best.

Only one division map – 8-player – was an absolute slam dunk. The rest received plenty of scrutiny from a committee that now includes veterans going back to the beginning but also has had some new eyes join in over the last couple of years. That variety of viewpoints certainly pays off.

And wow, did we fall into some incredible first-week matchups:

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Rockford and Hudsonville in a rematch of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red-deciding game of Week 9 (a Hudsonville 14-7 win).

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Traverse City West vs. Traverse City Central for the first time in playoff history (Central won 10-8 in Week 3).

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Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood at Detroit Country Day in a homecoming for longtime Yellowjackets coach Joe D’Angelo.

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Constantine at Schoolcraft in a matchup of longtime southwestern rivals (Schoolcraft won 20-10 in Week 8).

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Cedarville at Engadine in arguably the most intriguing of three all-U.P. 8-player matchups (Engadine won 52-42 in Week 7).

Truly, at the end of November, the best teams will have to beat the rest to finish as champions – regardless of maps, matchups, weather and anything else that won’t really factor into what eventually is settled on the field.

For many high school sports fans, it’s the favorite time of year. Join us now as we prepare for kickoff.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 1 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula. (Middle) The Division 3 map keeps four mid-Michigan teams together.

1st & Goal: 2024 Playoffs Week 2 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

November 8, 2024

One week gone, half the 288-team field remaining, and matchups that much more competitive with trophies on the line.

MI Student AidThe first hardware of this season’s MHSAA Football Playoffs will be awarded this weekend, as 64 teams will earn 11-player District championships and eight will celebrate 8-player Regional titles.

Games are tonight unless noted. Tickets for both 11 and 8-player rounds this weekend cost $7, and more than 60 of the 72 games to be played will be streamed live on the NFHS Network. Scores and pairings will be updated all weekend at MHSAA.com.

11-Player Division 1

Saline (7-3) at Belleville (9-1)

These two have collided in the playoffs the last two seasons, Belleville winning last year’s District Final matchup 65-14 and in 2022 by a 62-44 count. The Tigers bounced back from their Week 9 one-point loss to Howell with a 68-0 win over Ann Arbor Pioneer last week, and Saline is here after downing Northville 37-7. Counting on-field scores from three forfeit losses to start the season, the Hornets have allowed just under eight points per game this fall – and no more than seven since Week 4. But they’ll get their greatest challenge again from a Tigers team averaging nearly 44 ppg.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Utica Eisenhower (8-2) at Macomb Dakota (9-1), Clarkston (7-3) at Rochester Adams (8-2), Oxford (7-3) at Grand Blanc (8-2).

11-Player Division 2

Byron Center (9-1) at Muskegon Mona Shores (9-1)

Their first meeting, in Week 4, was an Ottawa-Kent Conference Green opener and ended up deciding that league’s championship for Mona Shores with a 14-12 win. The Sailors’ defeat came two weeks ago, to Toledo Central Catholic by just a point 14-13. Otherwise, since that first matchup, Mona Shores has posted three shutouts and won its remaining league games by an average of nearly 35 points per, while Byron Center won its four other league games by just under 22 ppg including 17-14 over Muskegon High – which Shores defeated by 15.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Birmingham Seaholm (7-3) at Birmingham Groves (10-0), Warren De La Salle Collegiate (7-2) at Grosse Pointe South (10-0), Saginaw Heritage (7-3) at Midland (9-1).

11-Player Division 3

Zeeland West (9-1) at St. Joseph (9-1)

This will be their second District Final matchup in three years; West won in 2022 36-18. The Dux actually are playing for a third-straight District title and in their ninth playoff games over the last three seasons with a 6-2 record across that string and both losses by seven or fewer points. St. Joseph – which did defeat Zeeland West in 2021 during a Semifinal run – lost only to Mattawan this season and had nonleague wins over eventual playoff teams Niles and Edwardsburg, while West’s loss came to still-undefeated Hudsonville Unity Christian with nonleague wins over playoff qualifiers Grand Rapids West Catholic and Whitehall.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Coopersville (7-3) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (8-2), River Rouge (5-4) at Riverview (9-1), Mount Pleasant (6-4) at Petoskey (10-0).

11-Player Division 4

Freeland (9-1) at Goodrich (9-1)

A 21-20 Week 8 loss to Frankenmuth is all that has separated Freeland from an undefeated run so far, and Goodrich shares that opponent having fallen to the Eagles 22-0 in their season opener. The Martians have scored at last 42 points in every game since and given up only 7.3 per game over their last nine. Freeland has given up more than 20 points two other times this fall, but scored more than 50 points both times to win those matchups – including 51-21 last weekend over Lake Fenton, which Goodrich defeated 62-0 in Week 3.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Edwardsburg (7-3) at Niles (9-1), Hastings (9-1) at Portland (10-0), Dearborn Divine Child (7-3) at Harper Woods (7-3).

11-Player Division 5

Belding (9-1) at Frankenmuth (10-0)

In addition to Freeland and Goodrich (noted above), Frankenmuth also has turned away a challenge from Gladwin among teams playing for District titles tonight. But Belding is a dangerous foe riding a nine-game winning streak since losing its opener to Division 4 Ionia. The Black Knights rocked the O-K Silver, winning their league games on average by 42 points per, and opened the playoffs with a 52-30 win over Saginaw Swan Valley – which Frankenmuth defeated similarly 63-27 in Week 2.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grand Rapids Catholic Central (6-4) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (7-3), Corunna (8-2) at Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (8-1), Berrien Springs (7-3) at Kalamazoo United (8-2).

11-Player Division 6

Marine City (8-2) vs. Warren Michigan Collegiate (9-1) at Warren Lincoln, Saturday

Warren Michigan Collegiate also is riding a nine-game winning streak since falling 27-24 to Clarkston Everest Collegiate in Week 1. The Cougars will carry a 42-point-per-game average and four straight games reaching 50 into this matchup. Marine City has reached 50 three of its last four games as well, with its only defeats in the season opener to Division 5 Armada – by a point – and 39-20 in Week 6 to Division 4 Marysville.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Standish-Sterling (7-3) at Reed City (8-2), Central Montcalm (9-1) at Newaygo (8-2), Ida (9-1) at Jackson Lumen Christi (9-1).

11-Player Division 7

Traverse City St. Francis (7-3) at Menominee (9-1), Saturday

Both of these teams have trips to Ford Field once over the last two seasons – St. Francis as Division 7 runner-up in 2022 and Menominee as the same a year ago. The Maroons are in a District Final for the fifth time in six seasons after rebounding from their lone loss by outscoring Bark River Harris and Houghton Lake by a combined 103-6 over the last two weeks. St. Francis lost two of its last three games, but started the playoffs with a 41-16 win over Charlevoix.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Pewamo-Westphalia (8-2) at Ithaca (10-0), Union City (9-1) at Hudson (9-1), McBain (9-1) at North Muskegon (9-1).

11-Player Division 8

Harbor Beach (10-0) at Clarkston Everest Collegiate (9-1)

This is part of one of the most competitive Regionals in the state, regardless of division, as Harbor Beach opened last week against reigning champion Ubly and Everest has won four straight District titles – and with the winner this weekend facing either undefeated Fowler or surging Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary next week. Harbor Beach blanked the Bearcats 35-0 and has two straight shutouts and five total this season. Everest has four including last week’s against Burton Bentley – a bounce-back from a 17-14 loss to Division 4 Macomb Lutheran North to close the regular season.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Saugatuck (7-3) at Decatur (9-1), Manchester (8-2) at Riverview Gabriel Richard (8-1), Beal City (8-2) at Maple City Glen Lake (9-1).

8-Player Division 1

Martin (8-1) at Mendon (9-1), Saturday

Whichever team emerges from this side of the bracket to reach the Superior Dome will have conquered an incredible road. Both are one-score losses from undefeated this fall and avenged their regular-season losses last week – with the winner of this matchup to see either undefeated Deckerville or surging Kingston in a Semifinal. The key matchup may be Mendon’s rushing attack – playing the lead role for an offense scoring 65 points per game – vs. Martin’s defense that has allowed at least 20 points six times but more than 24 only once.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Indian River Inland Lakes (10-0) at Alcona (9-1), Kingston (8-2) at Deckerville (10-0). SATURDAY Ishpeming (7-2) at Pickford (10-0).

8-Player Division 2

Powers North Central (9-1) at Crystal Falls Forest Park (9-1)

Just two weeks ago, North Central finished a Great Lakes Eight Conference West title run with a 45-34 win over the Trojans. Jets senior Lane Gorzinski ran for 234 yards and five touchdowns and threw for 169 and another score as his team scored more points than Forest Park gave up over their other four league games combined (33). The Trojans bounced back with a 60-0 win over Bellaire last week, while North Central enjoyed a 58-0 shutout of Gaylord St. Mary.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Pittsford (8-2) at Britton Deerfield (9-1), Onekama (9-1) at Au Gres-Sims (9-1), SATURDAY Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (7-3) at Morrice (9-1).

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PHOTO Howell players huddle in anticipation of taking the field before their Week 9 win over Belleville. (Photo courtesy of State Champs! Sports Network.)