Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Anticipation High as Statewide Football Eyes Turn to History-Chasing Mason

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

August 8, 2023

MASON – The drone lightly buzzing overhead during the final hour of Mason’s first practice was providing coaches another point of view as another season got underway Monday evening.

Mid-MichiganBut those shouldn’t be the only eyes watching the Bulldogs these days.

Two years ago, the Bulldogs started grabbing attention with a run of eight straight wins that landed them a first Regional championship with a stunning 20-17 win over frequent contender Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice.

A statewide audience began focusing in last season on the 8,200-resident town just south of Lansing as Mason returned to the Division 3 Semifinals and finished 12-1, setting a school record for wins with the only loss coming to eventual champion Detroit Martin Luther King for the second-consecutive season.

The Bulldogs return nine starters on offense and eight on defense this fall, led in part by two four-year varsity players and three in their third seasons on the top squad. Not tuning in would be a mistake – and mean missing out on potentially another historic effort.

“It started when we beat the Brother Rice team two seasons ago. That kinda kicked off a little bit of a spark for us here at Mason, and the energy just became the difference,” said senior lineman Nick Saade, one of those three-year varsity standouts. “You could just tell. All of our coaches have been at the weight room every day, giving us harder workouts as each year progresses. We’ve increased everything. The energy is there, all the seniors are back. We’re ready to go.”

Practices in nine sports started for an estimated 95,000 athletes across 750 MHSAA member high schools Monday. And Mason football got a running start. On what felt like the most comfortable first day of practice weather-wise in recent memory, there was no sign the Bulldogs were aiming to sit comfortably after what they’d accomplished the last two seasons.

So many experienced returnees means less to teach the greater group and an opportunity for coaches to start game-planning and focusing on details they might not get to usually until the first third of the season is done.

The program has had plenty of success over the years, including a stretch of 14 winning seasons over 15 from 2002-16. But the combined 39-6 record over the last four seasons is unmatched in Bulldogs history and made Mason a place to be for local media Monday as expectations – and anticipation – likely have never been higher.

“Expectations are high, no question about it – and it’s exciting,” said seventh-year coach Gary Houghton, whose only sub-.500 finish came his first season in 2017. “These guys love a challenge, our coaches love a challenge. … We feel like we have a blueprint that leads to success, and we’re going to stay to that blueprint.

“We’ve tweaked some little things, but the core of what we do, we’re going to continue to do. With the added experience we have coming back, I think we have an opportunity to take it to another level.”

Third-year starting quarterback Cason Carswell lines up under center.Mason took a solid offense to nearly unstoppable last season, upping its per-game scoring average 12 points to 43 per game. Junior Cason Carswell should begin approaching Mason career passing records in his third season as the starter after setting single-season school records with 2,403 yards and 34 scores through the air last fall in making the Division 3-4 all-state second team.

The Bulldogs return all but one receiver among last year’s starting skill players, with senior running back AJ Martel entering his fourth season on varsity after running for 1,273 yards and 20 scores a year ago behind a line that returns Saade among three starters.

The defense was two points better per game last fall than in 2021 while facing another tough playoff slate, giving up 15 points per game. The entire linebacking group returns, with senior Kaleb Parrish having been named the Lansing State Journal Defensive Player of the Year last season. Senior Derek Badgley and junior Logan Doerr also received postseason all-area recognition at linebacker, as did seniors Tyler Baker and Cole Ries in the defensive backfield and senior Grant Gilchrist and junior Sam Corey up front. Junior Collin Winters, also a soccer player, was an all-area kicker last fall.

The energy Monday was undeniable. Houghton loves the chemistry this group has developed over the last three seasons, starting as a young team grew together during that 2021 run. He credits rebuilding the program’s culture, undertaken in several ways purposefully, as putting this team in this position to put the last two years of experiences and learning toward another championship opportunity.

“Just stay confident. Know you can get the job done. Just trust your teammates,” Carswell said he has learned most.

“We all have huge hopes. A couple of years ago, it was like, ‘Let’s make the playoffs. Let’s make a big run.” Now it’s let’s go for it all.”

Geoff KimmerlyGeoff Kimmerly joined the MHSAA in Sept. 2011 after 12 years as Prep Sports Editor of the Lansing State Journal. He is a senior editor of  MHSAA.com's editorial content and has served as MHSAA Communications Director since January 2021. Contact him at [email protected] with story ideas for the Barry, Eaton, Ingham, Livingston, Ionia, Clinton, Shiawassee, Gratiot, Isabella, Clare and Montcalm counties.

PHOTOS (Top) Linemen work on one-on-one drills during Mason’s first football practice Monday evening. (Middle) Third-year starting quarterback Cason Carswell lines up under center. (Photos by Geoff Kimmerly.)