Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 1 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

August 24, 2023

This Michigan high school football season is heating up in a hurry.

MI Student AidOf course, this is always one of the most highly-anticipated opening weekends on the school sports schedule – and we kick off this fall’s 14-week run with 493 teams playing 11-player football and 106 playing 8-player.

More literally concerning the heat wave affecting much of the state, the list of games changing days or kickoff times as a precaution is growing; check out the MHSAA Scores page for updates as we receive them.

More than 250 varsity games are scheduled to be broadcast this weekend on MHSAA.tv, including all 16 being played at Wayne State as part of the Xenith Prep Kickoff Classic, University of Michigan as part of the Battle at the Big House and Kettering University as part of the Vehicle City Gridiron Classic. Click the names of the events for specific broadcast landing pages for those showcases.

Here’s a look at some of the matchups with the most intrigue from all over the state, including headliners from the three events referred to above. What you see below may not represent all of the schedule changes we are receiving, but again follow the MHSAA Scores page for updated dates and times – and all weekend for scores as they’re submitted.

Xenith Prep Kickoff Classic – Wayne State University – Tom Adams Field

Belleville (14-0) vs. River Rouge (5-4), Friday

Expectations couldn’t be higher for Belleville, which has won the last two Division 1 championships and 25 straight games and returns quarterback Bryce Underwood and running back/linebacker Jeremiah Beasley among standouts, and that makes this 7 p.m. kickoff arguably the most highly-anticipated in the state. But River Rouge was much better than its record last season, losing to two eventual Finals champions over its final three games as it finished its first season under a new coach – a scenario Belleville finds itself in this fall.

More Xenith games: THURSDAY Walled Lake Western (9-2) vs. Waterford Mott (8-3), Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (7-3) vs. West Bloomfield (8-2). FRIDAY Allen Park (7-4) vs. Taylor (4-5). SATURDAY Detroit Cass Tech (9-4) vs. Southfield Arts & Technology (8-3), Detroit Martin Luther King (10-3) vs. Cincinnati St. Xavier (5-7). 

Battle at the Big House – University of Michigan – Michigan Stadium

Goodrich (12-2) vs. Frankenmuth (13-1), Friday

Both finished their 2022 seasons at Ford Field, Frankenmuth the runner-up in Division 5 after a last-second Gladwin game-winning field goal and Goodrich runner-up in Division 4 after Grand Rapids South Christian dealt the Martians their only loss since opening night. That opening night had seen Frankenmuth defeat Goodrich 27-2, and several contributors from that game will find themselves in bigger roles as this season begins on a big stage.

More Big House games: THURSDAY Lake Orion (4-6) vs. Livonia Stevenson (4-5), South Lyon East (7-3) vs. White Lake Lakeland (4-5), Lapeer (7-3) vs. Ann Arbor Huron (5-5). FRIDAY Caledonia (12-2) vs. Romeo (8-3), Clarkston (10-3) vs. Northville (8-3). 

Vehicle City Gridiron Classic – Kettering University – Atwood Stadium

Davison (9-2) vs. Warren De La Salle Collegiate (13-1), Friday

Like Belleville, De La Salle is on a two-season championship streak after claiming the last two Division 2 titles by large margins, and the Pilots’ only loss over the last two years was by a point last September to league opponent Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice. There will be new faces in key places in these lineups as well, especially after De La Salle graduated its quarterback of the last three seasons and Davison has a new starter at that position as well.  

More Vehicle City games: THURSDAY Mt. Morris (2-7) vs. Clio (2-7). FRIDAY Flint Hamady (10-2) vs. Harper Woods Chandler Park (4-5), Flint Carman-Ainsworth (2-7) vs. Flint Kearsley (3-6). 

Bay & Thumb

Mount Pleasant (9-2) at Saginaw Heritage (7-3)

After spending most of the last two decades as part of a one-division Saginaw Valley League or in the same division when the league was split, these two are heading into a second-straight season in different divisions with Mount Pleasant a reigning co-champion in the North (now Blue) and Heritage coming off finishing third in the Red. They didn’t face each other last season, but the Oilers had won this matchup nine straight times before that – although expectations are rising in Saginaw Township as the Hawks won their most games last season since 2006.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Clarkston Everest Collegiate (9-4) at Ubly (13-1), Saginaw Swan Valley (7-4) at Croswell-Lexington (7-3), Millington (10-2) at Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker (10-2). FRIDAY Harbor Beach (8-2) at Marine City Cardinal Mooney (8-3).

Greater Detroit

Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice (5-6) at Roseville (8-3)

Roseville has posted its winningest two seasons over the last two years and rolled through the second half of 2022 before running into eventual Division 2 champion De La Salle in a District Final. A win over Rice in this season opener would be considered another serious step, as the Warriors were much better than their record last year may have seemed to indicate. Rice, as noted above, is the only team to defeat De La Salle over the last two seasons.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Parma Western (6-4) at Dearborn Divine Child (9-3). FRIDAY Rochester Adams (10-2) at Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (5-6).

Mid-Michigan

Haslett (6-4) at DeWitt (9-4)

The rivalry got some juice again last season at Michigan Stadium, as the Panthers hung on for a 21-14 victory. Two sets of siblings will be the main focus as this one kicks off. Haslett will pursue its first win in the series since 2005 paced by dynamic playmaker Nakai Amachree, who returned a kick and a punt for touchdowns in last year’s meeting, and younger brother Kory will be tough to stop as well. Junior twins Elliott and Abram Larner, meanwhile, shined as sophomores on a DeWitt team that reached the Division 3 Semifinals in November.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Saline (8-3) at Brighton (8-2), Holt (7-4) at Mason (12-1), Portland (10-2) at Ovid-Elsie (8-3).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Midland (10-2) at Cadillac (5-5)

These two were league champions last season, Midland sharing in the SVL North and Cadillac winning the Big North Conference while also playing one of the most crushing nonleague schedules in the state – five of the Vikings’ opponents finished the regular season 8-1. Midland won last year’s matchup, 27-21 at home, but this time must make the trip west.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Traverse City St. Francis (13-1) at Charlevoix (8-2), Standish-Sterling (8-2) at Boyne City (9-1), Traverse City West (2-7) at Gaylord (6-4).

Southeast & Border

Livonia Franklin (10-2) at Dexter (12-1), Friday

Dexter graduated serious star power from the group that produced the program’s longest playoff run and just missed making the Division 2 Final. But long forgotten are the days when the Dreadnaughts were among the last teams seeking to make the playoffs for the first time – and after five straight postseason appearances, this fall will provide another chance to show how far the program has come. Franklin has made the playoffs eight straight seasons and also is coming off one of its best as it reached double-digit wins last fall for the fourth time – making this one of the most intriguing season openers statewide outside of the three weekend showcases.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Warren Michigan Collegiate (10-2) at Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (6-6), Whitmore Lake (6-3) at Manchester (6-5). FRIDAY Tecumseh (10-1) at Jackson Northwest (5-4).

Southwest Corridor

Grand Rapids West Catholic (13-1) at Edwardsburg (11-2), Friday

This is another one many have had circled, especially after West Catholic last season won the matchup 28-20 – handing Edwardsburg its first regular-season defeat since 2017. The Falcons went on to win the Division 6 championship, while the Eddies reached the Division 4 Semifinals and were a touchdown from returning to Ford Field as well. West Catholic graduated much of its offensive firepower but returns important leaders on defense, and they’ll be tested right away by an Edwardsburg offense that has topped 4,000 yards rushing eight of the last nine seasons (with COVID-shortened 2020 the only exception during that time.)

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Lawton (9-3) at Benton Harbor (4-5), East Lansing (8-4) at Portage Central (4-5). FRIDAY Portage Northern (7-4) at Vicksburg (5-5).

Upper Peninsula 

Houghton (6-4) at Iron Mountain (11-2)

These two are playing a nonleague game this time after finishing fourth and second, respectively, in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper in 2022. Iron Mountain reached the Division 8 Semifinals last fall and has moved into the Iron division of the league this season as the West-PAC has added three teams to the Copper from the Great Northern Conference. Houghton remains in the Copper and will be looking to avenge last season’s 28-6 loss to the Mountaineers, which was followed by the Gremlins’ best finish since 2013.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Ishpeming (4-6) at Negaunee (13-1). FRIDAY Bark River-Harris (8-3) at Ishpeming Westwood (4-5), Marquette (3-6) at Gladstone (9-3).

West Michigan

Rockford (10-1) at Muskegon (11-3), Friday

A few others listed above are in contention, but this has to be the most highly-anticipated opening-weekend matchup outside of the showcase events. League opponents most recently in 2011, these west-side powers haven’t faced each other since 2013. Muskegon returned to Ford Field last season, finishing Division 3 runner-up, and returns the majority of its offensive playmakers from that lineup including quarterback M’Khi Guy and running back Jakob Price. Rockford’s only loss last fall was by a point in a District Final to eventual Division 1 runner-up Caledonia, and the Rams also return a major player on both sides of the ball in senior Ryan Ahern.  

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Hudsonville Unity Christian (6-5) at Whitehall (11-1), New Lothrop (10-3) at Muskegon Catholic Central (8-3), Cedar Springs (5-5) at East Grand Rapids (4-6). FRIDAY Kingsley (7-3) at Reed City (11-2).

8-Player

Martin (11-2) at Colon (10-1), Friday

These have become two of the strongest programs in 8-player football, but they head into this fall with some unfamiliarity. Martin is 40-6 in 8-player football and the reigning Division 1 champion, but graduated much of its nucleus from that title-winning team. Colon is 51-7 in 8-player but enters with a new coach for the first time since making the format switch in 2018. The Magi’s only loss last season came by two points in a Regional Final to eventual Division 2 runner-up Mendon.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Brown City (10-2) at Peck (7-3), Gaylord St. Mary (8-3) at Pickford (6-3). FRIDAY Morrice (9-3) at Breckenridge (8-3), Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian (8-0) at Climax-Scotts (8-2), Rudyard (6-3) at Munising (11-1).

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PHOTO Mount Pleasant takes the field during the 2022 season. (Click for more from High School Sports Scene.)