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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Davison defenders wrap up a Warren De La Salle Collegiate ball carrier during the Cardinals' Week 1 victory.

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 1 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

August 28, 2023

Every football season starts as a fast-tracked learning experience – we know some things from the previous year, but we’re watching to learn quickly with only nine weeks to figure out as much as we can before the highest achievers from the regular season move on to play for more.

MI Student AidAnd of course, opening weekend is always memorable – but this one had a few more unexpected wrinkles with a number of games moved a day or two later because of a heat wave across the Lower Peninsula, and several more stretched over two days as severe storms moved across the state.

When all was said and done, 296 varsity games were played. And although it’s impossible to list all of the significant moments – special shoutout to Pontiac for its first win on the field since 2018, and we see you too Livonia Franklin, Warren Michigan Collegiate, Millington and Pickford after solid wins –  below we return with our weekly report highlighting some of the most intriguing results from all over Michigan.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Davison 31, Warren De La Salle Collegiate 26 The marquee matchup at the Vehicle City Gridiron Classic saw two-time reigning Division 2 champion De La Salle carry a 14-0 third-quarter lead from Thursday to Friday at Kettering University, but Davison’s offense found its stride overnight. The loss was only the second for the Pilots over their last 28 games. Click for more from the Flint Journal and see below for highlights from WJRT-ABC12.

Watch list Goodrich 14, Frankenmuth 8 This Battle at the Big House matchup was a rematch of last season’s 27-2 Frankenmuth win as both teams went on to reach Finals at Ford Field. This time Goodrich scored the game-winner on a Chase Burnett run with 18 seconds to play at U-M.

On the move Midland 20, Cadillac 17 (OT) The Chemics added to last season’s 27-21 season-opening win over the Vikings by holding Cadillac to a field goal to start overtime and then clinching the victory on a touchdown pass from Isaiah Henderson to Zach Buschlen. Ubly 50, Clarkston Everest Collegiate 13 The Bearcats were Division 8 runners-up last season and started this one in a big way against another 2022 Division 8 semifinalist in Everest. Saginaw Heritage 42, Mount Pleasant 7 The Hawks are generating plenty of buzz after making a major move last fall, and breaking a nine-game losing streak against the Oilers will add to that.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Southfield Arts & Technology 29, Detroit Cass Tech 27 History repeated itself at the Xenith Kickoff Classic at Wayne State, but with nearly half the scoring as Southfield also defeated Cass Tech in the opener a year ago 56-54. Quarterback Isiah Marshall scored the go-ahead touchdown this time on a run with just under a minute to play. But don’t forget, the Technicians went on to win last year’s rematch 25-14 in a District Final, and these two could see each other again later this fall as well. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press and see highlights below from State Champs! Sports Network.

Watch list Belleville 35, River Rouge 28 The Tigers ran their winning streak to 26, but not without a major scare at Wayne State as the Tigers went ahead for good with just seven seconds to play.

On the move Roseville 41, Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice 0 The Panthers have been building up to something big the last two seasons, and this absolutely ranks among the most notable wins in program history. Northville 24, Clarkston 10 The Mustangs bounced back big from 3-6 in 2021 to 8-3 last season, and that surge looks to continue under new coach Brent Luplow after this Big House win over a 2022 Division 1 semifinalist. West Bloomfield 22, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 21 The Lakers pulled within a point during the closing seconds at WSU, then went for the win and converted a two-point conversion to start 1-0.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER DeWitt 27, Haslett 17 The Panthers trailed 10-7 when Thursday’s action ended due to thunderstorms, and Haslett scored the first touchdown after play resumed Friday. But DeWitt pulled away with 20 unanswered points as junior quarterback Elliott Larner ran for 227 yards and all four of the team’s scores. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Laingsburg 14, Durand 6 After just missing the playoffs with a 6-3 record last season, Laingsburg is grinding again after having also handed Durand its only regular-season defeat of 2022.

On the move New Lothrop 34, Muskegon Catholic Central 20 Division 8 is loaded with familiar contenders, and these two stand to be among them in eight weeks when we move into the playoffs. Grand Ledge 37, Holland West Ottawa 30 A late end zone interception followed by the heroics of freshman Anthony Baker and company gave the Comets a memorable opening win. Portland 33, Ovid-Elsie 6 These two finished a combined 18-5 a year ago after Portland won their opening matchup by nearly the same score.

Coopersville started 1-0 with a 49-6 win over Otsego.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Traverse City St. Francis 41, Charlevoix 40 (OT) This is a good sign not only for reigning Division 7 runner-up St. Francis’ resilience but also for Charlevoix’s potential this fall. The Gladiators survived multiple scares late in regulation and then stopped the Rayders on an overtime two-point conversion try to hold on. St. Francis is mustering after graduating many of the standouts from last year’s 13-1 team, while Charlevoix is hoping to build on three straight eight-win seasons. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Watch list Kingsley 46, Reed City 12 Reed City has lost only three times during the regular season since the start of 2020, and the Stags made this one happen on the Coyotes’ home turf as well.

On the move Alpena 34, Flint Powers Catholic 33 The Wildcats won only one game total last season – losing 34-7 to the Chargers along the way – and hadn’t started 1-0 since 2018. Boyne City 12, Standish-Sterling 7 After suffering its only 2022 loss in a Division 6 District Final, Boyne City is off on the right foot after downing another D6 playoff team from last season. Gaylord 13, Traverse City West 7 The Blue Devils followed up their first winning season last year since 2018 with their first victory over the Titans since 2005.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Saline 42, Brighton 3 CJ Carr is going to be one of the most followed stars in Michigan this fall, and it's fair to expect the entire Saline offense should benefit from the attention he draws. The Hornets ran for five touchdowns in a big opening win as Carr ran for one and threw for another score and directed the show throughout against a Bulldogs defense that gave up only 16 points per game last season. Click for more from the Ann Arbor News.

Watch list Parma Western 21, Dearborn Divine Child 7 The Panthers entered this fall with a streak of six straight winning seasons, but this still no doubt opened a few more intrigued eyes as Divine Child was 9-3 a year ago. Western kept the Falcons off the scoreboard until the fourth quarter.

On the move Napoleon 29, Onsted 28 The Pirates survived quite a few close games in reaching the Division 7 Semifinals last season and showed they can do so again, but Onsted also should be excited after winning just one game a year ago. Tecumseh 40, Jackson Northwest 21 Tecumseh ran its regular-season winning streak to 11 after downing a Mounties team coming off its best finish last fall since 2013. Manchester 42, Whitmore Lake 6 The Flying Dutchmen earned a second-straight opening night win over Whitmore Lake after both went on to six victories last season.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Portage Central 17, East Lansing 7 The Mustangs couldn’t have hoped for a better start after last season’s 4-5 finish, and this actually carried on their two-game winning streak to close 2022. The Trojans are coming off a Division 2 District title and defeated Portage Central 21-15 in last year’s opener and in 2021 as well. See below for highlights from FOX17.

Watch list Niles 55, St. Joseph 0 These two hadn’t faced off since Niles left the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference after the 2019 season, and before that the Vikings hadn’t defeated the reigning SMAC champion Bears since 2014.

On the move Battle Creek Harper Creek 33, Battle Creek Lakeview 32 Both are looking for better after matching 3-6 records a year ago, and Harper Creek took the first step by breaking a three-game losing streak against its rival. Kalamazoo United 28, Berrien Springs 27 The Titans scored last and got the conversion to win this matchup of 2022 playoff teams. White Pigeon 36, Reading 14 This also was a matchup of playoff teams from a year ago, and an avenging for White Pigeon after Reading won last year’s opener 33-14.

Ishpeming's Caden Luoma (20) is among Hematites pursuing Negaunee's Kai Lacar.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Escanaba 40, Calumet 13 The last two seasons have been tough for Escanaba with a combined three wins, but this could be a great sign as the program moves into the Big North Conference this fall with its league opener this week. Calumet has a nine-season playoff streak – and also lost last year’s opener to a bigger school by a similar score but came back to finish 6-4 and reach the postseason again. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.

Watch list Gladstone 36, Marquette 7 These two are going separate ways for league play after spending most of the last several seasons together in a Great Northern Conference. Gladstone has run its winning streak over Marquette to two as it begins Western Peninsula Athletic Conference play this week.

On the move Hancock 56, L’Anse 14 The Bulldogs ended a two-year losing streak against the Purple Hornets, and after falling in last year’s opener to them by 33. Iron Mountain 56, Houghton 6 The Mountaineers returned after last season’s Division 8 Semifinal run with their highest scoring output since 2020. Negaunee 32, Ishpeming 16 The Miners’ only loss last season came at Ford Field, and the reigning Division 6 runner-up opened this fall by running its winning streak over the Hematites to four.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Rockford 27, Muskegon 7 The first meeting between these two was one of the most highly-anticipated openers in the state, and the Rams have to be energized after performing so well on the road against the reigning Division 3 runner-up. Rockford’s defense was especially impressive, mostly stopping a Big Reds offense with multiple playmakers back after averaging 39 points per game a year ago. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Watch list Grand Rapids West Catholic 56, Edwardsburg 12 An eight-point margin separated these two last season, but the reigning Division 6 champion Falcons expanded that substantially and especially impressed defensively against what might be one of its toughest challenges of the regular season.

On the move North Muskegon 17, Pewamo-Westphalia 14 The Norsemen put together their winningest season last fall since 2006, and edging an annual Division 7 contender is a great way to start the season and get ready for this week’s matchup with rival Muskegon Catholic Central. Whitehall 34, Hudsonville Unity Christian 28 Whitehall is coming off its winningest season and opens with a loaded nonleague schedule over the first three weeks – but started it well by holding off the Crusaders for the second-straight fall, although this time by a much closer margin. Caledonia 35, Romeo 28 Last season’s Division 1 runner-up Caledonia made a trip to the Big House and got a combined four touchdowns from Brody Betser and Maddox Greenfield to match the three passing and one rushing by Romeo’s Kaden Burroughs.

Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart opened with a 48-30 win over Blanchard Montabella.

8-Player

HEADLINER Climax-Scotts 26, Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian 14 The Panthers have upped their win total each of the last two seasons and could be on their way to doing so again if this was an indication. NorthPointe was too large to qualify for the playoffs in 2022 but finished the regular season undefeated. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.

Watch list Rudyard 47, Munising 6 The Bulldogs not only avenged last season’s 34-7 loss to Munising, but did so against a team that didn’t lose last fall until it fell just two points short in a Division 1 Semifinal.

On the move St. Ignace 48, Suttons Bay 6 The Saints moved to 8-player this fall after rebounding to 7-3 in 11-player last season, and they started this next chapter off well against a frequent Division 1 contender. Martin 62, Colon 6 These two were a combined 21-3 last season, and reigning Division 1 champion Martin looks like it may have another group of playmakers to pick up where last year’s left off. Morrice 36, Breckenridge 12 Both are returning playoff teams from a year ago; they’re in separate divisions of the new Mid-State Activities Conference 8-player league after playing together in the Central Michigan 8-Man Football Conference last fall.

Second Half’s weekly “1st & Goal” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and X (Twitter) @mistudentaid.

PHOTOS (Top) Davison defenders wrap up a Warren De La Salle Collegiate ball carrier during the Cardinals' Week 1 victory. (2) Coopersville started 1-0 with a 49-6 win over Otsego. (3) Ishpeming's Caden Luoma (20) is among Hematites pursuing Negaunee's Kai Lacar during the Miners' victory. (4) Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart opened with a 48-30 win over Blanchard Montabella. (Photos by Terry Lyons [top], Gary Shook [2], Cara Kamps [3] and High School Sports Scene [4].)