Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

1st & Goal: 2024 Playoffs Week 3 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

November 14, 2024

Winter practices have started, and high school hockey teams actually began games this week.

MI Student AidBut for 72 schools across the state, it’s still football season – and they’d like to continue playing as many November games as possible.

This third week of MHSAA Playoffs features four Semifinals in 8-player – and we switch up the “1st & Goal” format to feature those games first below. We also have 32 11-Player Regional Finals, with winners this weekend needing just one more to book trips to Ford Field.

Games are tonight unless noted. Tickets for 11-Player Regional Finals are $9, and $10 for 8-player Semifinals, and more than 35 of the 36 games to be played will be streamed live on the NFHS Network. Scores and pairings will be updated all weekend at MHSAA.com.

8-Player Division 1

Indian River Inland Lakes (11-0) at Pickford (11-0), 1 p.m. Saturday

This is rematch from a year ago, when Inland Lakes won 12-0 on the way to finishing Division 1 runner-up. The Bulldogs have had only two single-digit games all season, including defeating Alcona 32-26 last week. Senior quarterback Aiden Fenstermaker is leading the march again, running for 1,463 yards and 22 touchdowns and throwing for 831 and 19, respectively. Pickford is seeking to make the Finals for the first time since 2019 and hasn’t played a game closer than 28 points. Senior quarterback Tommy Storey also is a two-way force, running for 1,341 yards and 24 TDs and throwing for 898 and 16 scores.

Mendon (10-1) at Deckerville (11-0), 1 p.m. Saturday

Mendon is just two years removed from playing for the Division 2 title, and avenged its only loss this fall by downing Climax-Scotts to open the playoffs. Junior Owen Gorham has run for 2,114 yards and 42 touchdowns – the rushing TDs already ranking third all-time in MHSAA history – and junior JT Lux follows with 1,160 yards and 14 scores on the ground. Deckerville is playing in its second-straight Semifinal and looking to make its first Final since 2017. The Eagles are averaging 49 points per game and haven’t scored fewer than 30.

8-Player Division 2

Onekama (10-1) at Crystal Falls Forest Park (10-1), Noon Saturday

Forest Park also avenged its lone loss during the playoffs, downing Powers North Central 34-12 last week, and the Trojans also are playing to get back to a championship game for the first time since 2017. Running back Dax Huuki is just a sophomore but leads the rushing attack with 1,267 yards and 18 touchdowns. Onekama won a combined eight games over the past four seasons before bouncing back big to reach the Semifinals for the first time since 2018, when the Portagers finished Division 2 runner-up. Junior quarterback Luke Bradford stands tall at 6-foot-5 and has thrown for 1,175 yards and 11 TDs and run for nine scores. Onekama fell to Marion in Week 2 but defeated the Eagles to open the postseason.

Morrice (10-1) at Britton Deerfield (10-1), 1 p.m. Saturday

Britton Deerfield is another fascinating comeback story, having finished 2-7 a year ago. The Patriots are in their fourth season of 8-player football and playing in their first Semifinal in either format since the school formed from its predecessors in 2011. They’ve run for 4,140 yards this fall, led by senior Luke Wiser with 1,549 with 27 touchdowns. Morrice will play in its third Semifinal over the last six seasons seeking to reach the championship game for the first time since winning Division 1 in 2018. The Orioles too have avenged their lone loss this fall, to Portland St. Patrick, and get it done with a defense giving up only 11.4 points per game and a pair of senior 1,000-yard rushers in Joel Fisher (1,464/18 TDs) and Wyatt Cartier (1,253/24).

11-Player Division 1

Belleville (10-1) at Detroit Catholic Central (11-0)

Even with Belleville’s loss to Howell in Week 9, this has remained one of the most anticipated matchups in the state all season as it’s been assumed these two powers would meet at some point. The last time, Belleville defeated DCC in a 2022 Regional Final, 33-10. After facing seven playoff teams plus an Ohio state title contender, the Shamrocks shouldn’t be daunted by Belleville’s success and star power. But that said, the Tigers are striding coming off their best win this fall, 42-7 last week over Saline.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Grand Blanc (9-2) at Rochester Adams (9-2), Detroit Cass Tech (9-2) at Macomb Dakota (10-1). SATURDAY Hudsonville (10-1) at Howell (11-0).

11-Player Division 2

Warren De La Salle Collegiate (8-2) at Birmingham Groves (11-0)

De La Salle has finished at Ford Field seven of the last 10 seasons, and two of the last six years did so after defeating Groves in Semifinals – including 43-15 in 2022. Groves is playing to reach a championship game for the first time, and the Falcons have never been in better position taking on the Pilots after tying their program record for wins last week. Groves hasn’t been challenged in a while, but does have victories over Harper Woods and West Bloomfield this fall. De La Salle is coming off handing Grosse Pointe South its only loss this season and will attempt a repeat performance tonight.  

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Portage Central (8-3) at Byron Center (10-1), Saginaw Heritage (8-3) at East Lansing (8-3), Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (8-3) at Gibraltar Carlson (10-1).

11-Player Division 3

Petoskey (11-0) at DeWitt (11-0)

Petoskey also has set a record for wins this season and will play in a Regional Final for the third time and first since 2014. The Northmen have navigated only two single-digit games this fall and prepped for this run in part with a 41-21 win over Clare in Week 9 – notable as Clare also was a league champion. DeWitt presents arguably their mightiest challenge as the Panthers are undefeated this late for the first time since their Division 3 championship season of 2020 and putting up 55.6 points per game despite a schedule that has three opponents also playing for Regional titles.  

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (9-2) at Zeeland West (10-1), Mason (9-2) at Walled Lake Western (11-0), River Rouge (6-4) at Detroit Martin Luther King (8-3).

11-Player Division 4

Portland (11-0) at Niles (10-1)

For the second-straight season, Portland is undefeated playing Niles for a Regional championship, and last year advanced with a 21-14 win over the Vikings. The Raiders actually have played an identical playoff schedule as 2023 so far, and Niles has enjoyed plenty of familiarity as well with District wins over a pair of regular-season opponents from the Wolverine Conference. The Vikings’ shutout of Edwardsburg last week was their third in four weeks and sixth of the season, providing an intriguing challenge for a Raiders offense almost keeping pace with last year’s scoring at 41.5 points per game.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Grand Rapids South Christian (7-4) at Whitehall (8-3), Haslett (8-3) at Goodrich (10-1), Macomb Lutheran North (10-1) at Harper Woods (8-3).

11-Player Division 5

Kalamazoo United (9-2) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (7-4)

This will be the fourth time United will play for a Regional title over the last seven seasons, and if the Titans are to advance for the first time they’ll have to deal with a GRCC program that has reached Ford Field six of the last eight years. After ending the regular season on a three-game skid but with all three defeats by single digits, the Cougars have impressed in the playoffs including squeaking past Grand Rapids West Catholic 21-18 last week. The Titans have won two rematches to open this postseason and faced playoff teams their last six games, losing only to Jackson Lumen Christi (39-21 in Week 9) along the way.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Gladwin (8-3) at Frankenmuth (11-0), Armada (10-1) at Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (9-1), Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard (7-4) at Flat Rock (9-2).

11-Player Division 6

Detroit Central (8-3) at Marine City (9-2)

Only three weeks ago, Marine City closed the regular season with a 37-15 win over Central. But as we’ve seen over the first two rounds of the playoffs, rematches can flip quickly, and the Mariners surely won’t be looking past this one as they pursue what would be a first Regional title since 2021. That first matchup arrived with Central coming off a close win over Detroit Denby for a Detroit Public School League City championship, and since that defeat the Trailblazers have won their playoff games by a combined 69-24. Marine City has picked up momentum as well, especially with last week’s 38-28 win over Warren Michigan Collegiate.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Boyne City (9-2) at Reed City (9-2). SATURDAY Lansing Catholic (8-3) at Newaygo (9-2), Constantine (8-3) at Jackson Lumen Christi (10-1).

11-Player Division 7

Schoolcraft (10-1) at Hudson (10-1)

The eight teams remaining in Division 7 have a combined seven losses, making all four matchups among the most intriguing as a group. These two are meeting for the first time since facing off in a 2001 Division 6 Semifinal, Hudson on a 10-game winning streak this season and Schoolcraft losing only in Week 3 by two points to Division 6 Constantine. Defense may dominate; the Eagles are giving up 9.9 points per game and just shut out a Lawton offense that averaged 35, while Hudson is giving up 8.4 ppg and hasn’t allowed more than seven since the first weekend in October.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Leslie (10-1) at Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (11-0). SATURDAY North Muskegon (10-1) at Menominee (10-1), Pewamo-Westphalia (9-2) at Millington (10-0).

11-Player Division 8

Harbor Beach (11-0) at Fowler (11-0), Saturday

While featuring two of the state’s smallest 11-player schools, this might draw an above-proportion amount of attention as one of only two matchups of undefeated contenders in any 11-player bracket. Harbor Beach is seeking its first Regional title since 2018, and Fowler its first since 2019. Fowler finished the regular season third in Division 8 playoff-point average, and Harbor Beach downed top-ranked Clarkston Everest Collegiate 37-7 last week. The Eagles’ best three wins were against Division 7 teams, including two still playing.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Detroit Loyola (5-6) at Riverview Gabriel Richard (9-1). SATURDAY Beal City (9-2) at Iron Mountain (11-0), Reading (7-4) at Decatur (10-1).

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PHOTO Armada’s Jackson Malburg breaks into the open during last week’s District Final win over Hazel Park. (Photo by Adam Sheehan Photography.)