Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 2 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

August 31, 2023

While opening weekend is always going to be among the most highly-anticipated every football season, Week 2 this fall could provide quite an encore.

MI Student AidThis weekend’s schedule statewide leads off with a trio of massive matchups that include teams from the Grand Rapids and/or Muskegon areas, with perhaps the top two teams in both the Lansing area and entire Upper Peninsula also set to face off and a possible Flint-area league championship also potentially being previewed for the second-straight season.

Four games were scheduled to be played Wednesday, with 241 today, 53 on Friday and two Saturday. Broadcasts of several will be available on MHSAA.tv with subscription, and come back all weekend to the MHSAA Scores page for results as they come in.

Here’s a look at some of those matchups that jump off the page most:

Bay & Thumb

Linden (1-0) at Goodrich (1-0), Thursday

Three of four meetings between these two over the last four seasons has been decided by six points or fewer. They met twice last season, first in a Flint Metro League non-divisional tune-up – won by Goodrich 6-0 – and then in the league championship game after both won their divisions, with the Martians prevailing again 21-0. After going separate ways a second time, Goodrich ended up in the Division 4 Final and finished runner-up, and Linden reached a Regional Final in Division 3.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Richmond (1-0) at Croswell-Lexington (1-0), Ithaca (1-0) at Standish-Sterling (0-1), Cass City (1-0) at Harbor Beach (1-0). FRIDAY Traverse City Central (1-0) at Lapeer (1-0).

Greater Detroit

Rochester (1-0) at Rochester Adams (1-0), Thursday

Look past that Adams has won this matchup 26 times in a row, and the rivalry has had a different vibe of late as Rochester has continued to improve. The Highlanders won both meetings last year, 34-18 in Week 2 but also 28-14 in a Division 1 District Final while facing the Falcons in the playoffs for the second time in three seasons. Rochester High has strung together three straight winning seasons and lost last week by just a point, 22-21, to Utica while Adams opened with a 22-8 win over Orchard Lake St. Mary’s.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY West Bloomfield (1-0) at Birmingham Groves (1-0), Detroit Loyola (1-0) at Warren Michigan Collegiate (1-0). FRIDAY Hastings (1-0) at Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (1-0), Clarkston (0-1) at Southfield Arts & Technology (1-0).

Mid-Michigan

Mason (1-0) at DeWitt (1-0), Thursday

These two both were one more win away from giving Ford Field an all-Capital Area Activities Conference Division 3 Final last season, as they both finished with losses in Semifinals on the opposite sides of the bracket. They may be mid-Michigan’s top two teams this season. DeWitt again is a favorite in the CAAC Blue and showed plenty of mettle in coming back to defeat Haslett in their opener 27-17. Mason returns nearly its entire starting lineup from last year’s 12-1 run and opened last week with a 52-14 win over Holt, a Division 1 playoff team last fall.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Hudsonville (1-0) at East Lansing (0-1), Portland (1-0) at Olivet (0-1), Lansing Sexton (1-0) at Lansing Catholic (1-0), Fenton (1-0) at Haslett (0-1).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Frankfort (1-0) at Maple City Glen Lake (1-0), Thursday

These two frequent league title contenders didn’t determine any championships last year, but Frankfort did win their matchup 22-6 to finish runner-up in the Northern Michigan Football League Legacy. Both teams opened with wins last week, Frankfort in the Legacy 38-8 over Mancelona, and the Lakers 34-18 nonleague over Manton. After a mostly-dominating 20-teens, Glen Lake has had a few tough seasons of late – but winning this matchup would be a nice boost as first-year coach Jesse Smith establishes his program.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Hudson (1-0) at Benzie Central (1-0), Johannesburg-Lewiston (1-0) at East Jordan (1-0), Gaylord (1-0) at Kingsley (1-0). FRIDAY Elk Rapids (0-1) at Boyne City (1-0).

Southeast & Border

Riverview (1-0) at Carleton Airport (1-0), Thursday

Riverview was able to clinch the outright Huron League title last season in part because of an 18-13 win over Airport in Week 7, with the Jets going on to tie for second. This matchup could be part of the equation again, especially after Airport claimed an impressive 31-10 win last week over Gibraltar Carlson – winner of nine games both of the last two seasons – and Pirates more than doubled up Detroit Renaissance to run their regular-season winning streak to 29.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Whitehall (1-0) at Tecumseh (1-0), Detroit Country Day (1-0) at Parma Western (1-0). FRIDAY Edwardsburg (0-1) at Chelsea (0-1), Dexter (0-1) at Saline (1-0).

Southwest Corridor

Traverse City St. Francis (1-0) at Lawton (1-0), Friday

This season’s Gladiators picked up some key experience on the fly last week with a 41-40 overtime win over Charlevoix as they work to replace many of last year’s leaders who took the team to a Division 7 runner-up finish and along the way defeated Lawton 42-7 in Week 8. The Blue Devils were in a similar spot a year ago as the 2021 Division 7 runner-up and rebounded from the St. Francis defeat to win a District title before falling by just a point to eventual champion Jackson Lumen Christi in the Regional. St. All four teams mentioned here are in Division 7 this fall, and Lawton opened with a 51-20 win last week over Benton Harbor.  

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Schoolcraft (1-0) at Centreville (0-1), Delton Kellogg (1-0) at Parchment (1-0), Niles (1-0) at Stevensville Lakeshore (0-1). FRIDAY Battle Creek Harper Creek (1-0) at Battle Creek Central (0-1)

Upper Peninsula

Negaunee (1-0) at Gladstone (1-0), Thursday

The conversation went back and forth last season about which of these two was the Upper Peninsula’s best team until Negaunee won their first meeting 24-6 in Week 7, and the Miners wrapped that up again with an 18-12 Regional win on the way to finishing Division 6 runner-up. It’s too early to have that conversation yet this year, but judging by last week’s results – Gladstone won 36-7 over Marquette and Negaunee doubled up Ishpeming 32-16 – both may be in the conversation again.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Bark River-Harris (1-0) at Iron Mountain (1-0), Cadillac (0-1) at Escanaba (1-0), Menominee (1-0) at Hancock (1-0), Kingsford (1-0) at Houghton (0-1).

West Michigan

Warren De La Salle Collegiate (0-1) at Muskegon (0-1), Friday

As noted, there are some monster matchups on the west side of the state this weekend – see below for others – but it’s hard not to dive into this one even though both fell in season openers last week. Both also finished last season at Ford Field – De La Salle as repeat Division 2 champion and Muskegon as Division 3 runner-up. The Pilots were leading Davison last week before storms forced their game to finish up the next day and the Cardinals prevailed 31-26. The Big Reds, meanwhile, took on another Division 1 contender in Rockford and lost 27-7 in a game that also no doubt will pay off in experience and playoff points.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Portage Central (1-0) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (1-0). FRIDAY River Rouge (0-1) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (0-1), East Grand Rapids (1-0) at Grand Rapids South Christian (1-0), Rockford (1-0) at Muskegon Mona Shores (1-0).

8-Player

Posen (1-0) at Rogers City (1-0), Friday

Rogers City was the North Star League Big Dipper champion last season, and Posen was the Little Dipper runner-up, and the Hurons claimed their Week 3 meeting 12-6. Both are coming off big season-opening wins last week, with Posen nearly doubling up a Pellston program that’s had a nice run of success most of the last half-decade. But this matchup likely will tell us much more about both teams, especially relative to the 18-1 regular-season run Rogers City has put together since the start of 2021.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Merrill (1-0) at Morrice (1-0), Lake Linden-Hubbell (1-0) at Indian River Inland Lakes (1-0), Colon (0-1) at Mendon (1-0), Munising (0-1) at Newberry (1-0).

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PHOTO A St. Clair Shores Lakeview ball carrier works to break a tackle during last week’s 28-0 win over Warren Woods Tower. (Photo by Chris Mudd/National Photo Scout.)