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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Marquette's Tucker Welch (4) finds a big hole and scores Marquette's first touchdown of its win over Alpena.

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 2 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 4, 2023

Every season is a story, and Week 2 gave us plenty to consider as this one continues to unfold.

MI Student AidWe had pretty high expectations for this Labor Day weekend, which featured power-packed matchups from both local and statewide points of view – and we weren’t disappointed.

But there were several intriguing twists and turns as well – including numerous teams that came back impressively from opening-day losses – and we dive into many of those results below.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Chesaning 27, New Lothrop 22 These two began playing each other regularly with the creation of the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference in 2018, and four-time league champion New Lothrop (1-1) had won the first five meetings of the recent series by an average score of 51-8 – including 40-14 a year ago. But Chesaning (1-1) built a 27-6 lead by the middle of the third quarter this time on the way to rebounding bigtime from a Week 1 four-point loss to Bath. Click for more from the Saginaw News.

Watch list Goodrich 45, Linden 28 The Martians (2-0) followed up a Week 1 win over reigning Division 5 runner-up Frankenmuth with this win over another returning league champion in Linden (1-1).

On the move Ubly 42, Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 0 The Bearcats (2-0) have now won their first two games by a combined score of 92-13 over teams that went a combined 19-6 last season. Montrose 22, Durand 14 Add this to the Chesaning win and the MMAC might be in for more change at the top, as the Rams moved to 2-0 by handing reigning champ Durand its second defeat. Yale 34, Armada 28 The same might be said in the Blue Water Area Conference as Yale (2-0) broke a four-game losing streak against reigning champion Armada (1-1), avenging last year’s 42-18 defeat.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Warren De La Salle Collegiate 40, Muskegon 28 The reigning Division 2 champion Pilots (1-1) needed just a week to put the opening loss to Davison solidly behind them as they crossed the state and picked up a major bounce-back win over last season’s Division 3 runner-up Big Reds (0-2). The teams traded leads for most of the first three quarters with De La Salle carrying a five-point lead into the fourth and adding one more score to pull away. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

Watch list Roseville 33, Romeo 30 The Panthers (2-0) are making big headlines early, following last week’s shutout of Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice with this win over the Bulldogs (0-2) that avenged last season’s 30-6 loss.

On the move West Bloomfield 41, Birmingham Groves 19 The Lakers also are off to another notable 2-0 start after doubling up a Division 2 semifinalist from a year ago. Southfield Arts & Technology 20, Clarkston 17 The Warriors (2-0) have set their pace defeating a pair of Division 1 powers, this time breaking a four-game losing streak against the Wolves (0-2).  Redford Union 14, Dearborn Heights Crestwood 12 Last season this ended up eventually deciding the Western Wayne Athletic Conference title for the Chargers, although this matchup was much closer than their 41-6 victory a year ago.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Mason 42, DeWitt 23 The Bulldogs (2-0) affirmed themselves as the frontrunners for the Lansing area’s best team after jumping out to a 35-0 lead on the Panthers (1-1) in this matchup of 2022 Division 3 semifinalists. Fourth-year varsity senior AJ Martel was among standouts with 139 yards and two touchdowns rushing. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Lansing Sexton 48, Lansing Catholic 20 The J-Dubbs are off to their first 2-0 start since 2017, also their most recent winning season, and avenged a 35-0 loss to the Cougars (1-1) from a year ago.

On the move Haslett 41, Fenton 25 The Vikings bounced back from a Week 1 loss to DeWitt as Nakai Amachree scored six touchdowns. Ithaca 39, Standish-Sterling 26 The Yellowjackets (2-0) had lost the last two seasons to the Panthers (0-2), last season’s ending up Ithaca’s only defeat on the way to the Division 7 Regional Finals. Mount Pleasant 35, Midland 6 Add the Oilers (1-1) to the list of quick bounce-backers as they rebounded from a big Week 1 loss to down a Midland team that won 10 games last season and opened with a victory last week.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Gaylord 42, Kingsley 39 The Blue Devils are 2-0 for the second-straight season after holding off a late Kingsley comeback attempt. The Stags (1-1) scored twice over the final four minutes to again make this matchup a one-score game after Gaylord won last year’s meeting by a point. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Watch list Cadillac 43, Escanaba 36 The Vikings (1-1) came back from a three-point season-opening loss to Midland to begin Big North Conference play with a key win over new league member Escanaba (1-1).

On the move Frankfort 28, Maple City Glen Lake 15 Just two weeks in, Frankfort finds itself 2-0 in the Northern Michigan Football League Legacy with a Week 8 matchup with East Jordan looking even more like one to circle. Boyne City 57, Elk Rapids 14 The Ramblers also are 2-0 after playing two 2022 playoff teams and with more tests ahead as the schedule doesn’t get any easier the rest of September. Mancelona 52, Tawas 20 The Ironmen (1-1) won one game last season and scored just 86 points over nine, but they equaled that victory total while avenging last year’s 30-8 loss to Tawas (1-1).

Remus Chippewa Hills improved to 2-0 with a 43-13 win over Grant.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Carleton Airport 48, Riverview 27 The Jets (2-0) not only have defeated two league champions so far this fall – add this win to the 31-10 opener over Gibraltar Carlson – but they’ve set themselves up well starting Huron League play after missing out on a shared title a year ago when Riverview (1-1) won the matchup 18-13 and went on to make the Division 4 Semifinals. Click for more from the Monroe News.

Watch list Parma Western 20, Detroit Country Day 17 There’s been early talk that Western (2-0) is a team to watch more closely this fall, and this combined with the Week 1 win over Dearborn Divine Child definitely is justifying the buzz. Country Day (1-1) is coming off a run to the Division 5 Semifinals.

On the move Quincy 18, Reading 12 The Orioles (1-1) are seeking a first winning season since 2018, and this could be big as they hadn’t defeated Reading (0-2) since 2016 and lost last year’s meeting 42-0. Chelsea 27, Edwardsburg 14 The Bulldogs (1-1) evened their record this fall and avenged a 40-7 loss to the Eddies (0-2) from last as these two recent Division 4 champions continued a regular-season series. Saline 41, Dexter 25 The matchup that decided the Southeastern Conference Red outright title for Dexter (0-2) in Week 8 last year moved to the front of the league schedule this fall and still might end up having championship implications as Saline (2-0) is off to a strong start.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Lawton 38, Traverse City St. Francis 6 The Blue Devils’ Kal Motter was another of the statewide stars of the weekend with five touchdowns as Lawton handed reigning Division 7 runner-up St. Francis its first regular-season loss since October 2020. The Gladiators (1-1) had won last year’s meeting 42-7 and hadn’t been held to single-digit scoring also since 2020. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Watch list Battle Creek Harper Creek 21, Battle Creek Central 13 The Beavers are 2-0 for the first time since 2017 having now avenged both 2022 losses to neighbors Lakeview in Week 1 and Central on Friday. Harper Creek had lost to the Bearcats 34-0 a year ago.

On the move Richland Gull Lake 7, Vicksburg 6 The Blue Devils are 2-0 for the first time since 2007 and after winning three games total last season, when they fell 28-6 to playoff regular Vicksburg (0-2). Paw Paw 42, Berrien Springs 6 The Red Wolves (2-0) added to their impressive opening victory over Big Rapids with another over the annually playoff-qualifying Shamrocks (0-2). Kalamazoo Central 47, Sturgis 34 The Maroon Giants’ opener ended up cancelled due to weather, but they made their late start sweet with this first win since Week 7 of 2021 – and against a 2022 playoff qualifier in the Trojans (1-1).

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Gladstone 42, Negaunee 14 Gladstone (2-0) is coming off its best season in more than a decade, but it still included losses to Negaunee (1-1) during the regular season and Regional Finals. This was a first step toward avenging all of that, and with some new significance – Gladstone joined reigning champion (and Division 6 runner-up) Negaunee in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper this season. Click for more from RRN Sports.

Watch list Iron Mountain 40, Bark River-Harris 0 The Mountaineers (2-0) are another team running at full steam with a pair of wins over 2022 playoff teams, but with an interesting September coming up as they moved into the WPAC Iron this fall after regularly contending in the Copper over the last five seasons.

On the move Sault Ste. Marie 26, Cheboygan 0 For the fifth season in a row, the Blue Devils have started 2-0 – and for the second time in three seasons, they’ve opened with two shutouts. Calumet 42, Ishpeming Westwood 22 The Copper Kings picked up nice momentum following an opening loss to Escanaba by getting to 1-0 in the WPAC Copper with Negaunee up next. Kingsford 34, Houghton 0 The Flivvers also are unscored upon after two games, with Gladstone a major test next.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Rockford 31, Muskegon Mona Shores 8 The Rams (2-0) followed up an impressive opening win over Muskegon High with another stunning performance, holding Mona Shores (1-1) scoreless until the final minutes of the fourth quarter. This was just a four-point game a year ago, but Rockford now heads into Ottawa-Kent Conference Red play with a combined 58-15 margin over its first two. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Watch list East Grand Rapids 23, Grand Rapids South Christian 21 The Pioneers (2-0) are coming off two straight sub-.500 seasons, but that rarity could be moving into distant memory as they followed up a shutout of Cedar Springs by downing the reigning Division 4 champion Sailors (1-1) with the game-winner on the final play.

On the move Grand Rapids Catholic Central 38, River Rouge 6 Both are being talked about already in the championship mix, making this victory even more notable as GRCC moved to 1-1 and Rouge to 0-2. North Muskegon 41, Muskegon Catholic Central 21 The Norsemen (2-0) are one of the stories of the first two weeks, following an opening win over Pewamo-Westphalia by avenging last year’s only regular-season loss in sending the Crusaders to 0-2. Hudsonville Unity Christian 33, Muskegon Oakridge 21 These Crusaders (1-1) opened with a pair of contenders from the West Michigan Conference Lakes and followed Week 1 loss to Whitehall with an impressive victory over a 10-win team from a year ago.

8-Player

HEADLINER Newberry 16, Munising 6 Newberry’s only losses of the 2022 season were to Munising in Week 2 and again in a Division 1 Regional Final. But along with avenging those, this victory should provide plenty of momentum as Newberry heads into this week’s matchup with Rudyard, the only other opponent to come within single digits last season.

Watch list St. Ignace 46, Pellston 6 The Saints (2-0) appear to be adjusting to 8-player quickly as they increased their margin over their first two victories to a combined 96-12.

On the move Posen 56, Rogers City 14 The Vikings (2-0) handed the Hurons just their second regular-season defeat over the last three and now have reached 50 points in both games this fall. Indian River Inland Lakes 54, Lake Linden-Hubbell 46 The Bulldogs (2-0) got a late start as well after their Week 1 game was forfeited, but they started it memorably by edging a Lakes team coming off its second-straight seven-win season. Mendon 58, Colon 30 After winning last year’s Division 2 Regional Final meeting with the Magi by only two points, Mendon broke free with Jack McCaw and Owen Gorham both going over 100 yards rushing and combining for five touchdowns.

Second Half’s weekly “1st & Goal” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and X (Twitter) @mistudentaid.

PHOTOS (Top) Marquette's Tucker Welch (4) finds a big hole and scores Marquette's first touchdown of its 49-0 win over Alpena. (Middle) Remus Chippewa Hills improved to 2-0 with a 43-13 win over Grant. (Top photo by Cara Kamps; middle photo by High School Sports Scene.)