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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Negaunee's Kai Lacar gets a few yards before being tackled by Kingsford's Wyatt Scott (24) and Caleb Kleist (30).

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 4 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 18, 2023

We're just a few days past the fourth week of this high school football season. A few of Michigan's high school leagues have yet to even begin play.

MI Student AidBut for several others, we already are getting ideas of which teams might be celebrating championships when the regular season is done – and we're likely to look back at Week 4 as playing a big part.

Several conference favorites and other early impressers met over the weekend, and a number of standings shifters are highlighted below: 

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Gladwin 44, Clare 28 The Flying Gs (4-0) took over first place alone in the Jack Pine Conference, but only after flipping this game during the final 25 minutes. Clare took a 21-3 lead with 1:07 left in the first half – but Gladwin responded with a touchdown pass with 29 seconds left before the break, and then Jhace Massey threw another after an onside kick to get the margin to just five points by halftime. Clare (2-2) pushed the lead back to 12 to start the second half, but Gladwin then scored 28 unanswered points, and Massey finished with those two passing touchdowns and three more running the ball. Click for more from MI Sports Now.

Watch list Almont 29, North Branch 22 Almont (4-0) gave up just its first points of this season in starting the heart of the Blue Water Area Conference schedule with this win over the reigning co-champion Broncos (2-2), and with the other co-champion Armada and current co-leader Croswell-Lexington up over the next two weeks, respectively.

On the move Ubly 56, Harbor Beach 20 Ubly (4-0) stands alone atop the Greater Thumb Conference East standings after scoring its season high to get past the Pirates (3-1). Montrose 29, Ovid-Elsie 22 Montrose (4-0) will play Chesaning for first in the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference this week now having defeated reigning champion Durand and the reigning runner-up Marauders (2-2). Midland Bullock Creek 28, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 0 Bullock Creek (2-2) is seeking its first winning season since 2019 and avenged a 14-13 loss to MLS from last year to get back to even this fall with both losses so far by only seven points apiece.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Lake Orion 17, West Bloomfield 13 Lake Orion (4-0) is off to its best start since finishing 9-2 in 2019, its four wins equaling last year’s total and the team’s most since that last winning season. The Dragons went ahead for good with 1:24 to play, giving them their first win in the annual matchup since 2013. Lake Orion’s defense came up especially big, holding the Lakers (3-1) to their fewest points in a regular season game since also scoring 13 in the 2018 finale. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

Watch list Detroit Cass Tech 14, Detroit Martin Luther King 7 The result of this matchup generally means a Detroit Public School League division title for the winner, and Cass Tech is among three teams without a loss early in the PSL Blue after De’Mari Hendrix put them ahead to stay with a score during the final minute.

On the move Southfield Arts & Technology 42, Birmingham Groves 35 The Warriors (4-0), No. 8 in the Division 1 coaches poll, got the weekend rolling with a Thursday night win over Division 2 No. 5 Groves (2-2). Novi 39, Brighton 21 Novi avenged last season’s 41-6 loss to the Bulldogs (1-3) and is 3-1 for the first time since 2013. Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 40, Detroit Country Day 0 NDP (4-0) avenged last season’s 35-19 District Final loss to Country Day (1-3) while winning its third-straight game by 40 or more points this fall.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER East Lansing 40, DeWitt 34 East Lansing (2-2) scored first and then held off a second-half Panthers comeback attempt to remain one of three teams undefeated in Capital Area Activities Conference Blue play. The Trojans also ran their winning streak over DeWitt (1-2) to two in adding to last season’s 36-30 win, as this has become one of the annual must-see games in the Lansing area. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Lansing Sexton 28, Charlotte 0 By moving to 4-0, Sexton has equaled last season’s win total and all but guaranteed its best finish since its most recent winning season in 2017. The J-Dubbs shut down a Charlotte offense that averaged 42 points per game during the Orioles’ 3-0 start.

On the move Mason 37, Williamston 12 Mason (4-0) just keeps churning, this time extending a winning streak over Williamston (2-2) to four after the last two matchups between them had been decided by eight points or fewer. Belding 49, Comstock Park 21 Belding (3-1) has run its Ottawa-Kent Conference Silver winning streak to eight with all but one of those victories by double digits as it seeks to repeat as champion. Beal City 50, Houghton Lake 8 Beal City is winning its games by an average score of 47-7 after this one over a much-improved Bobcats team that sits 3-1.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Charlevoix 50, East Jordan 6 Charlevoix (3-1) has handed the first loss this season to its last two opponents, and East Jordan (3-1) very well could go on to contend in the Northern Michigan Football Conference Legacy. This provided the Rayders with more momentum as they head into this week’s matchup with Benzie Central that could eventually decide the NMFC Leaders title. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.

Watch list Kingsley 64, Boyne City 13 Kingsley (3-1) is averaging just under 50 points per game after putting up a season high against the Ramblers (2-2), another contender in the NMFC Leaders.

On the move Frankfort 55, Johannesburg-Lewiston 0 Frankfort (4-0) earned its second-straight shutout of the Cardinals (2-2), but the Panthers’ defense has shined all season giving up just under 11 ppg. Traverse City St. Francis 28, Grayling 22 The young Gladiators (2-2) might be finding their stride after two straight losses, settling in against a Grayling team that’s 2-2 and had topped 30 points in all of its first three games. Gaylord 9, Petoskey 0 An impressive defensive stand put Gaylord (4-0) in position to play Cadillac this week for sole possession of first place in the Big North Conference, with Petoskey (2-2) among those hoping to stay in the race with another chance or two coming up to impact it.

Traverse City West defenders pursue a Grand Blanc ball carrier during the Bobcats' 43-7 win.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Jackson Lumen Christi 28, Detroit U-D Jesuit 6 Lumen Christi’s first game as part of the Detroit Catholic League saw the Titans (4-0) give up their first points of the season, and only six in adding to the impressiveness of this victory over last year’s CHSL AA champion Cubs (3-1). Click for more from the Jackson Citizen Patriot.

On the move Napoleon 42, Manchester 21 The Pirates took an important first step as they seek to repeat as league champions, this time of the new Cascades Conference East. Manchester (3-1) had given up only 29 points total over its first three games, but Napoleon (4-0) upped its early scoring average to 42 ppg and its regular-season winning streak to 14.

On the move Adrian 29, Tecumseh 7 Adrian is 4-0 for the first time since 2010 and hadn’t defeated Tecumseh (1-3) since 2011. Grass Lake 42, East Jackson 8 Grass Lake (4-0) also is undefeated at the top of the Cascades Conference East, with Napoleon up next. Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard 34, Riverview Gabriel Richard 6 AAGR avenged last season’s 11-point loss to RGR (1-3) to move to 4-0 – giving the Fighting Irish one more win than all of last season and guaranteeing their best finish since 2019.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Constantine 27, Schoolcraft 21 Constantine (3-1) twice led by double digits and held on to run their winning streak against the Eagles (3-1) to two. The Falcons will start Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore play this week on the best-possible note, especially key as all six league teams area 2-2 or better heading into the league schedule. Click for more from the Three Rivers Commercial-News.

Watch list Dowagiac 39, Parchment 14 Dowagiac has had a mostly rough last three seasons, going a combined 5-20, but head into Lakeland Conference play this week with more wins than all of the last two seasons combined and after handing Parchment (3-1) its lone defeat.  

On the move Benton Harbor 34, Buchanan 27 Benton Harbor (2-2) opened Lakeland play with its third-straight game decided by seven points or fewer, but this one a win over the reigning league champion Bucks (2-2). Watervliet 18, Coloma 16 These two played for the 111th time – ranking 11th among Michigan high school rivalry games – and after the rivalry took a break the last two years. Paw Paw 40, Vicksburg 17 A testament to their tough schedule, the Red Wolves (4-0) made the playoffs last season at 4-5 – and all four of their wins so far this fall are over 2022 playoff teams.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Negaunee 13, Kingsford 12 The Miners started the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper schedule a win down, losing to Gladstone two weeks ago. But the reigning champs are right back in the mix after handing Kingsford a narrow defeat in the teams’ first meeting since 1994. The Flivvers (3-1) had reached 34 points in all three of their wins before Negaunee slowed them down. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Watch list Menominee 44, Calumet 0 With Gladstone, Negaunee and Kingsford handing each other defeats, Menominee (4-0) sits on the top of the Copper standings with those three coming up, but also having given up only six points this season with three shutouts.

On the move Houghton 34, Ishpeming Westwood 16 After two losses to open the fall, Houghton (2-2) has bounced back with two wins and gets Menominee next. Sault Ste. Marie 21, Escanaba 7 The Blue Devils (3-1) met a slightly more familiar opponent in their second game as part of the Big North Conference, adding a second win in two seasons over Escanaba (1-3). Manistique 52, West Iron County 0 After taking an eight-point loss to Ishpeming in Week 2, Manistique has two straight wins (and two straight shutouts) to get to 2-2 – after winning two games total in 2022 and 2021.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Rockford 42, Caledonia 16 The Rams (4-0) hurdled perhaps their toughest obstacle early as they pursue a fifth-straight Ottawa-Kent Conference Red title. Rockford’s defense shut down a Caledonia attack that averaged 42 points per game over its first three, and in doing so also avenged last year’s one-point District Final loss to the eventual Division 1 runner-up Fighting Scots (3-1). Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Watch list Muskegon 42, Muskegon Mona Shores 21 The Big Reds (2-2) ran their streak in another of the state’s most competitive rivalries to three straight wins, with M’Khi Guy throwing two touchdown passes and running for another score against the Sailors (2-2).

On the move Allendale 61, Hamilton 38 The Falcons (4-0) are another team on the rise, with their four wins equaling their totals of both of the last two seasons and this victory the only loss for a Hamilton team that at 3-1 has already bested its 2022 finish. Saugatuck 15, Union City 14 The Trailblazers won just two games last season but are 4-0 for the first time since 2016 and with this win over the reigning Big 8 Conference champ Chargers (3-1) their most impressive. Big Rapids 25, Reed City 14 The Cardinals (3-1) earned their first win over Reed City (1-3) since 2009, and in doing so stayed in a tie atop the Central State Activities Association Gold.

8-Player

HEADLINER Carson City-Crystal 45, Merrill 30 Carson City-Crystal (4-0) made its move to 8-player football this season coming off five straight 11-player playoff seasons. The Eagles’ first three wins this fall came against teams that are a combined 1-11, but this one over the reigning Division 1 runner-up Vandals (3-1) tells plenty about how quickly they are advancing in the new format. Click for more from the Greenville Daily News.

Watch list Gobles 53, Martin 16 The Tigers (4-0) have absolutely dominated this season, outscoring their opponents by a combined 237-24 – and that includes this win over reigning Division 1 champion Martin (2-2), which had won the last two meetings with Gobles by a combined 110-6.

On the move Brown City 46, Deckerville 28 The Green Devils (4-0) are in their second season of 8-player and first as part of the North Central Thumb League Stars – and they are tied for first after handing annual contender Deckerville (3-1) its only defeat. Pickford 44, Rudyard 42 By nearly the closest of margins, Pickford (4-0) ended a two-game losing streak to Rudyard (3-1) and after falling 34-6 last season. St. Ignace 30, Indian River Inland Lakes 28 The Saints (4-0) just keep climbing as well, with Inland Lakes (3-1) the third team they’ve handed a first loss this season.

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PHOTOS (Top) Negaunee's Kai Lacar gets a few yards before being tackled by Kingsford's Wyatt Scott (24) and Caleb Kleist (30). (Middle) Traverse City West defenders pursue a Grand Blanc ball carrier during the Bobcats' 43-7 win. (Top photo by Cara Kamps. Middle photo by Terry Lyons.)