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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Grand Rapids Catholic Central breaks away for a 49-14 win over Ada Forest Hills Eastern.

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 7 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 9, 2023

Fall showed up in a roar for Week 7, drenching fields almost everywhere as 300 games played on.

MI Student AidBut the rain couldn’t put a damper on several league title celebrations all over the state.

Of 88 varsity football conferences in Michigan, 60 have at least one guaranteed champion with two more weeks of regular-season games to play – and those historic victories make up most of the highlights below.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Frankenmuth 38, Freeland 13 Frankenmuth (6-1) secured a share of a 12th-consecutive league championship, clinching in the Tri-Valley Conference Red in this meeting of co-leaders heading into the evening. The Eagles have won 59 straight league games dating to 2014, and all five against the Falcons (6-1) since they began playing in the same division. Click for more from the Saginaw News.

Watch list Cass City 26, Elton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 12 With the Greater Thumb Conference set to merge with the North Central Thumb League next school year, Cass City (6-1) earned the final championship in the GTC West as Laker (4-3) also was tied for first entering the evening. (Ubly defeated Sandusky 39-8 to finish a perfect run through the GTC East.)

On the move Chesaning 29, Durand 12 Chesaning (6-1) clinched a share of the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference title, defeating the 2022 champ and with seventh-place Otisville-LakeVille left on the league schedule. Ithaca 26, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 7 The Yellowjackets (7-0) also clinched the outright championship in the TVC White by claiming this winner-takes-all meeting with MLS (5-2). Fenton 27, Flushing 8 Fenton (6-1) finished an outright championship in the Flint Metro League Stripes, its fifth-straight league title and first outright since 2020.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Lake Orion 42, Clarkston 21 With its first win over Clarkston since 2019, Lake Orion clinched its first league title since those two teams shared the Oakland Activities Association Red championship in 2011. They entered this league finale tied for first, so the Dragons’ also won this time outright and improved to 7-0 while holding down the No. 3 spot in Division 1 playoff-points average. Clarkston is 4-3 but No. 15 on the list in part because of its difficult schedule playing in one of the state’s most competitive leagues. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

Watch list Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 45, Romeo 12; Utica Eisenhower 31, Macomb Dakota 0 There’s no way to split these up; Chippewa Valley (5-2) and Eisenhower (6-1) clinched a shared Macomb Area Conference Red championship by winning on a night when all four contenders entered tied for first place.

On the move Walled Lake Western 28, Milford 20 Western (7-0) claimed a share of a second-straight Lakes Valley Conference title, with Milford (5-2) and Waterford Mott one game behind and the Warriors needing to defeat seventh-place Walled Lake Central in two weeks to clinch it outright. Grosse Pointe South 27, St. Clair Shores Lakeview 0 Another winner-take-all in the MAC White went to GPS (6-1), which has won all 10 of its games in this division since making the switch a year ago and handed Lakeview (5-2) its first shutout since 2021. Birmingham Seaholm 20, Auburn Hills Avondale 0 Seaholm (6-1) owns a share of the OAA Blue title and dealt this first loss to Avondale (6-1), which has clinched a share in the OAA Gold. Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 56, Gladwin 21 This was one of few meetings left of undefeated teams this fall, and Notre Dame Prep (6-0) continued its surge by posting 56 points for the third time this season and against a defense that had given up only 90 total during Gladwin’s 6-0 start.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Hastings 20, Parma Western 19 There are still two weeks of Interstate 8 Athletic Conference games to play, but Hastings (5-2) is a major step closer to a fourth-straight championship. The Saxons stopped Western (6-1) on a late two-point try to win and moved into first place alone with a chance to clinch this week against Jackson Northwest. See below for more from FOX 17.

Watch list Perry 14, Stockbridge 13 Perry is drawing close to making history. The Ramblers (5-2) are seeking their first playoff berth (not counting 2020, when almost all teams qualified because of COVID-related adjustments) and are tied for No. 15 in Division 7 playoff-point average with a matchup against Division 5 Lake Odessa Lakewood this week.  

On the move Fowler 54, Frankfort 0 Fowler (6-1) sits No. 10 in Division 8 playoff-points average after handing Frankfort (6-1) its first defeat. Portland 35, Charlotte 8 Portland (7-0) will play Lansing Sexton this week for the Capital Area Activities Conference White title after turning back this challenge from the third-place Orioles (5-2). Williamston 20, Haslett 7 Williamston (5-2) sits No. 7 in Division 5 playoff-points average with its only losses to Division 3 teams and this win over the Vikings (4-3) among five over opponents from Divisions 3 or 4.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Ogemaw Heights 35, Kingsley 12 For the first time since 2009, Ogemaw Heights (6-1) is a league champion after claiming a winner-takes-all matchup for the Northern Michigan Football League Legends title. Kingsley (5-2) had averaged 50 points per game entering the weekend, but the Falcons’ defense continued a run of success that’s seen them allow only 38 points total over the last five games. Click for more from MI Sports Now.

Watch list Benzie Central 46, Oscoda 14 Benzie remains on the rise, and by moving to 4-3 equaled its win total from a year ago – when it qualified for the playoffs at 3-6 – while holding nicely at No. 21 in Division 7 playoff-points average. Oscoda fell to 3-4 but has some opportunities to climb over the final two regular-season games.

On the move Grayling 46, Kalkaska 6 Grayling (4-3) kept its playoff hopes alive and sits No. 24 on the Division 6 playoff-points list after sending Kalkaska to 3-4 and No. 42. Maple City Glen Lake 47, Johannesburg-Lewiston 8 The Lakers (4-3) added to their playoff candidacy and sit No. 22 in Division 8 playoff-points average while Johannesburg-Lewiston (2-4) is No. 45. Cadillac 28, Richland Gull Lake 7 Cadillac (4-3) bounced back from two straight losses to get a needed boost up to No. 29 on the Division 3 playoff-points list, while Gull Lake (4-3) sits just outside the field at No. 33.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Napoleon 44, Michigan Center 34 Despite receiving one of its toughest challenges this fall – and trailing at halftime – Napoleon (7-0) emerged with a share of the Cascades Conference East championship and an opportunity to clinch it outright this week against sixth-place East Jackson. The Pirates have won 20 of their last 21 games and scored the most points Michigan Center (5-2) had allowed since Week 1 of 2022. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen Patriot.

Watch list Chelsea 21, Jackson 14 Chelsea (6-1) withstood its closest Southeastern Conference East matchup to finish an outright title run with Jackson (4-3) pushing for a shared championship.

On the move Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 27, Flat Rock 18 St. Mary (3-4) was able to jump from No. 22 to No. 9 in Division 7 playoff-point average with this win, and also juggled the Huron League title race a bit by dropping Flat Rock (5-2) out of a tie for first. Addison 42, Hanover-Horton 8 Addison (7-0) completed its Cascades Conference West schedule with an outright championship, the Panthers’ fourth league title in five seasons. Saline 31, Ypsilanti Lincoln 0 Saline (7-0) is another long-running league champion back on top, clinching a share in the SEC Red after missing out a year ago.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Portage Central 32, Portage Northern 22 Central took back the upper hand in this annual rivalry game after losing by three points a year ago, and also took over first place alone in the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference. Both teams are 6-1 overall, and Northern will be rooting hard for Kalamazoo Central this week and Stevensville Lakeshore next as the Huskies hope for some help to still claim a league title share. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Watch list Lawton 29, Schoolcraft 22 Lawton (6-1) set itself up to face undefeated Saugatuck this week for the Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley title with Schoolcraft (5-2) hanging on to hope for a shared championship with Saugatuck on its schedule for Week 9.

On the move Constantine 27, Kalamazoo United 7 Constantine (6-1) also will play for a league title this week, against South Haven, in the SAC Lakeshore and with Kalamazoo United (4-3) hoping for similar maneuvering as Schoolcraft as it gets South Haven in Week 9. Parchment 32, Allegan 14 The Panthers (4-3) just missed the playoffs last season at 5-4 but kept their hopes sparked this fall by ending a three-game losing streak and jumping from No. 35 to 28 in the Division 6 playoff-points list while sending Allegan (4-3) down to a tie for No. 32 in Division 5. St. Joseph 35, Stevensville Lakeshore 0 St. Joseph (4-3) vaulted to No. 19 in Division 3 playoff-points average in breaking a two-game losing streak, and also knocked Lakeshore (5-2) out of a tie for first in the SMAC.

(Middle) Marquette's Jacob MacPhee (1) catches a pass from quarterback Jaxon Jurmu.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Negaunee 47, Menominee 20 The reigning champion in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper is back in the title hunt. After starting out a step behind with a loss to Gladstone in a Week 2 league opener, Negaunee (6-1) has made it all the way back and can clinch a share of the Copper championship this week against Houghton – while Menominee (6-1) and Kingsford also will play for a guaranteed share of the title. Click for more from Upper Michigan’s Source.

Watch list Marquette 21, Petoskey 20 Marquette (4-2) opened this season 1-2, then didn’t have a Week 4 game, but is 3-0 since with a chance at a share of the Big North Conference title (if Sault Ste. Marie defeats leader Gaylord in Week 9) and the No. 24 spot on the Division 3 playoff-points average list – while Petoskey (4-3) is holding on at No. 32.

On the move Gladstone 31, Houghton 8 Gladstone (5-2) is officially out of the Copper title hunt, but steady at No. 9 on the Division 6 playoff-points average list with opportunities to climb. Sault Ste. Marie 21, Alpena 6 After missing the playoffs last season at 6-3, Sault Ste. Marie (5-2) is sitting at No. 26 on the Division 4 playoff-points list and with two substantial chances to move up. Manistique 19, Lakeview 8 Manistique (4-3) moved up from No. 38 to 36 on the Division 7 playoff-points list but will work to reach the top 32 with two more playoff hopefuls on the schedule to finish the regular season.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Big Rapids 35, Howard City Tri County 6 After forcing a three-team shared championship in the Central State Activities Association last season, Big Rapids (6-1) will reign alone this fall thanks to this win that secured an outright title. The Cardinals won their six league games this season by an average of 24 ppg. Tri County is 6-1 and still can equal last season’s win total with one more. Click for more from the Big Rapids Pioneer.

Watch list Grandville 38, Caledonia 34 Grandville (6-1) will play Rockford this week for a share of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red title after quarterback Cash Ruff put the Bulldogs on his shoulders (and legs) during the fourth quarter. He ran for the winning points during the final seconds as Grandville avenged two losses last season to the Fighting Scots (5-2).

On the move Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern 23, Lowell 20 In an O-K White filled with contenders, FHN (5-2) quietly has joined them and with this win guaranteed its best record since 2018 with a chance to break up the title race even more after taking the Red Arrows (5-2) out of a four-way tie for first. Muskegon 22, Zeeland West 16 The O-K Green is down to just one leader at the top as the Big Reds (5-2) have a game on West (6-1) and Muskegon Mona Shores and only sixth-place Grand Rapids Union and seventh-place Wyoming left on the schedule. Grand Rapids West Catholic 56, Allendale 6 West Catholic (7-0) claimed a share of the O-K Blue title with two games to play as Allendale (5-2), Coopersville and Spring Lake all are tied for second at 3-2 in league play.

8-Player

HEADLINER Climax-Scotts 58, Mendon 28 After two runner-up league finishes over the last four seasons, including last fall, Climax-Scotts is a champion with this win clinching a share of the Southern Central Athletic Association West title. Mendon (5-2) led by as many as 12 points into the final minute of the first half, but the Panthers (7-0) scored the final six touchdowns to come back and pull away. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Watch list Morrice 44, Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 13 With one league game left for six of its seven teams, the Mid-State Activities Conference Red has three in first place – Morrice (5-2) creating the jam by handing Sacred Heart (6-1) this defeat. The Orioles, Irish and Portland St. Patrick all are 4-1 in the division, and all play teams in the bottom three of the standings this week.

On the move Alcona 42, Au Gres-Sims 12 Alcona (6-1) plays Rogers City this week for the North Star League Big Dipper title and should have plenty of momentum after handing a first loss to Little Dipper leader Au Gres (6-1). Marcellus 52, Grandville Calvin Christian 0 Marcellus (6-1) dominated the Southwest Michigan 8-Man Football League Red, opening with a 51-18 win over Lawrence, getting a forfeit from Bloomingdale and then defeating second-place Bangor and third-place Calvin Christian (4-3) by a combined 99-0 over the last two weeks. Carson City-Crystal 26, Blanchard Montabella 22 In its first year as part of an 8-player league, Carson City-Crystal (7-0) is a champion with this clinching a share of the MSAC Blue title as Montabella (4-3) moved into a tie for third.

Second Half’s weekly “1st & Goal” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and X (Twitter) @mistudentaid.

PHOTOS (Top) Grand Rapids Catholic Central breaks away for a 49-14 win over Ada Forest Hills Eastern. (Middle) Marquette's Jacob MacPhee (1) catches a pass from quarterback Jaxon Jurmu. (Top photo by Michigan Sports Photo. Middle photo by Cara Kamps.)