Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 8 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 11, 2023

Only two regular-season games remain for the majority of Michigan’s high school football teams, but thousands of players and coaches will be striving this weekend to extend their time on the field this fall.

MI Student AidAnd it may take only one more winning performance to do so.

Just last weekend, 19 teams moved into the possible playoff field of 288 as one of the top 32 in 11-player divisions or 16 in 8-player divisions based on playoff-point average.

Among those 256 11-player teams – qualifiers if the regular season had ended after last weekend – Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central jumped 13 spots to No. 9 in Division 7, Oak Park moved up nine spots to No. 29 in Division 2 and Hastings jumped eight spots to No. 11 in Division 4, while several more hopefuls earned upward movement of seven or six positions. Overall, only the potential qualifier list in 8-player Division 2 remained unchanged from Week 6.

To keep an eye on those possibilities as results come in, load the Playoff Point Summary page at MHSAA.com.

Below are this week’s most intriguing matchups across the state, many still determining league champions and most factoring into which teams will continue to play after the regular season is done. All games are Friday unless noted. 

Bay & Thumb

Davison (7-0) at Grand Blanc (5-2) - WATCH

This will be the first time since 2020 that these rivals will decide a league championship, with Grand Blanc the outright Saginaw Valley League Red title winner with a victory and Davison facing one more game against Lapeer next week but able to claim a share if it comes out on top this weekend. The Cardinals are 6-1 against the Bobcats – including two playoff wins – since they began playing in the same division of the SVL in 2018, and Davison won 49-14 and then 27-0 a year ago. After a five-point win over Division 2 powerhouse Warren De La Salle College in Week 1, Davison has prevailed in all of its games by at least two touchdowns. But the Bobcats’ defeats have come against a pair of ranked opponents, Grandville and East Lansing, who are a combined 11-3 – and Grand Blanc posted an impressive 44-26 win over Lapeer two weeks ago.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Ubly (7-0) at Cass City (6-1) - WATCH, North Branch (4-3) at Croswell-Lexington (6-1) - WATCH, Beaverton (5-2) at Gladwin (6-1), Lapeer (5-2) at Midland (4-3) - WATCH.

Greater Detroit

Detroit Cass Tech (5-2) vs. Detroit Martin Luther King (4-3) at Ford Field

The first meeting between these two Sept. 15 was an opportunity to see how rearranged lineups matched up with each other, and Cass Tech won 14-7. Now that those new players and other players in new places have nearly a full regular season behind them, this Detroit Public School League Blue championship game could settle into another titanic faceoff. Cass Tech hasn’t given up a point since King scored those seven a month ago, and King hasn’t given up more than six in a game since Cass put up those 14. Keep this in mind as well: In the four seasons Cass and King have met twice over the last decade, only last year – when the Technicians avenged a 28-23 loss with a 28-14 win four weeks later – has the same team not won both.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Allen Park (7-0) at Gibraltar Carlson (6-1) - WATCH, Mason (7-0) at Walled Lake Western (7-0) - WATCH, Southfield Arts & Technology (7-0) at West Bloomfield (5-2) - WATCH, Northville (7-0) at Novi (6-1) - WATCH.

Mid-Michigan

Portland (7-0) at Lansing Sexton (7-0) - WATCH

The first meeting between these two Sept. 15 was an opportunity to see how rearranged lineups matched up with each other, and Cass Tech won 14-7. Now that those new players and other players in new places have nearly a full regular season behind them, this Detroit Public School League Blue championship game could settle into another titanic faceoff. Cass Tech hasn’t given up a point since King scored those seven a month ago, and King hasn’t given up more than six in a game since Cass put up those 14. Keep this in mind as well: In the four seasons Cass and King have met twice over the last decade, only last year – when the Technicians avenged a 28-23 loss with a 28-14 win four weeks later – has the same team not won both.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Fowler (6-1) at Laingsburg (4-3) - WATCH, DeWitt (4-2) at Lansing Everett (4-3) - WATCH, Midland Dow (4-3) at Mount Pleasant (6-1). SATURDAY Fenton (6-1) at Corunna (7-0) - WATCH.

Northern Lower Peninsula

Frankfort (6-1) at East Jordan (6-1) - WATCH

This league championship matchup has seemed destined for a while, with only a pair of nonleague detours keeping these teams from perfection heading into this weekend, and this will be the second time in three seasons these two will meet to decide a title winner. East Jordan’s last three seasons together have amounted to the program’s best string of success in two decades, and only two six-point losses – including one to Frankfort – kept the Red Devils’ from repeating as the Northern Michigan Football Conference Legends champion last season. Their only loss this fall was to NMFC Leaders champ Charlevoix. Frankfort is coming off a nonleague loss to another likely Division 8 contender in Fowler, but will try to bounce back to clinch its first league title since 2016. After falling in the title matchup to East Jordan 22-18 in 2021, the Panthers also finished league runner-up last fall.  

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Jackson Lumen Christi (7-0) at Gaylord (7-0) - WATCH, Evart (5-2) at Houghton Lake (4-3) - WATCH, Benzie Central (4-3) at Maple City Glen Lake (4-3) - WATCH. SATURDAY Marquette (4-2) at Cadillac (4-3) - WATCH.

Southeast & Border

Dundee (4-3) at Hudson (7-0) - WATCH

Hudson can meet Clinton next week for a winner-take-all in the Lenawee County Athletic Association, but Dundee definitely can switch things up as well with success tonight. Although the Tigers have won their last three meetings with the Vikings, Dundee also is pushing for a third-straight playoff appearance and already has scored more points this fall than they did over 11 games in 2021 and 10 games last season. The Vikings' offense will get its toughest test, however, as Hudson has given up only 50 points this season and none since Week 5. Still, the Tigers must be sure to not look ahead to next week's opponent, as Clinton is the only team that has defeated Hudson in LCAA play over the last three seasons. 

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Michigan Center (5-2) at Manchester (6-1) - WATCH, Trenton (4-3) at Chelsea (6-1) - WATCH, Belding (6-1) at Jackson (4-3) - WATCH, Milan (3-4) at Carleton Airport (6-1).

Southwest Corridor

Constantine (6-1) at South Haven (5-2) - WATCH

Only a few seasons ago, South Haven ended a 29-game losing streak, and just last season the Rams finished 2-7. This weekend they’ll play for a share of the Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore championship, entering this matchup off three league wins all by at least 28 points. Of course, Constantine is a major obstacle standing in the way. The Falcons’ three league wins are all by 20 or more points, and they’ve won 19 straight Lakeshore games going back to 2019 – when they still shared the league championship. South Haven will have a chance to put into practice lessons learned in losses to tough opponents – Lawton is a likely Division 7 contender and Ada Forest Hills Eastern is strong in Division 4 – and Constantine bounced back from its lone loss to Benton Harbor to defeat Lawton the following week in starting a five-game winning streak.   

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Portage Northern (6-1) at Stevensville Lakeshore (5-2) - WATCH, Kalamazoo United (4-3) at Allegan (4-3) - WATCH, Ottawa Lake Whiteford (7-0) at Union City (6-1) - WATCH, Dowagiac (4-3) at Buchanan (4-3) - WATCH.

Upper Peninsula

Menominee (6-1) at Kingsford (6-1) - WATCH

The winner of this game will claim a Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper championship – either shared or outright – while the loser will finish either tied for second or solo in third, depending on what a third co-leader, Negaunee, does at Houghton this weekend. Kingsford’s only defeat this fall was 13-12 to the Miners in Week 4, and Menominee is hoping to rebound quickly after falling to Negaunee 47-20 last week. The Flivvers and Maroons have played memorable matchups the last two seasons, Kingsford winning 34-27 in 2021 and Menominee avenging 42-41 to close the 2022 regular season. Kingsford still has given up only 25 points this fall, with five shutouts, and Menominee has four shutouts and had given up only 32 points before last week.  

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Manistique (4-3) at Bark River-Harris (4-3) - WATCH, Gladstone (5-2) at Calumet (3-4) - WATCH, Petoskey (4-3) at Sault Ste. Marie (5-2) - WATCH, Negaunee (6-1) at Houghton (2-5) - WATCH.

West Michigan

Rockford (7-0) at Grandville (6-1)

Rockford has won 24 straight Ottawa-Kent Conference Red games, but this won’t be the first time the Rams and Grandville have squared off for the league title – in fact, it will be the fourth time over the last 10 years, and Rockford still won the Red championship in 2019 despite the Bulldogs handing them their most recent league loss that fall. Grandville started this season playing back-to-back games against the teams vying tonight for the Saginaw Valley League Red title, defeating Grand Blanc and falling to Davison, and the Bulldogs also have earned close yet impressive wins over Hudsonville and last week Caledonia. Rockford followed its opening 20 and 23-point wins over Muskegon and Mona Shores, respectively, with more of the same in league play – and hasn’t played a single-digit regular-season game since Week 2 of last fall.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grand Rapids South Christian (6-1) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (6-1) - WATCH, East Grand Rapids (6-1) at Byron Center (6-1), Lawton (6-1) at Saugatuck (7-0) - WATCH, Zeeland West (6-1) at Muskegon Mona Shores (5-2).

8-Player

Pittsford (7-0) at Adrian Lenawee Christian (7-0) - WATCH

The winner takes all in the Southern Central Athletic Association East. The familiarity between these two goes back more than a decade, and with Lenawee No. 1 and Pittsford tied at No. 3 on the Division 2 playoff-points average list, this could be just the first round this season. Pittsford, not surprisingly, has found itself back in a championship mix; the Wildcats were among the state’s top small-school 11-player programs for decades before making the switch to 8-player last fall. That first run ended at 5-4 and the Wildcats just missing the playoffs, but they’ve found their stride this fall, especially on defense where they gave up a high of 16 points in the season opener and no more than eight in a game since. Lenawee Christian brings the challenge of an offense that scores 57 ppg and put 73 up against Mendon two weeks ago and 56 on Pittsford in their 2022 meeting.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Marion (6-0) at Brethren (5-2) - WATCH, Pickford (7-0) at Newberry (6-1), Rogers City (4-3) at Alcona (6-1) - WATCH, Mayville (5-2) at Kingston (6-1) - WATCH.

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PHOTO A pair of Muskegon defenders make a tackle against Holland this season.  (Photo by Tim Reilly.)