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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Detroit Cass Tech celebrates during its PSL Golf championship win at Ford Field.

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 8 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 16, 2023

The sun is setting – and lately, a ton of rain has been falling – on the 2023 football regular season. 

MI Student AidWeek 8 saw most of the rest of the remaining league championships decided, and tons of movement up and down the list of potential playoff qualifiers as 20 teams moved into (and 20 out of) the possible field of 288.

Several more teams moved up and down their respective division lists, nearly as important as projections of which teams will be going where and which will be hosting playoff games begin to fly with more frequency this week and we draw closer to Sunday's 6 p.m. "Selection Sunday Show" on Bally Sports Detroit Extra.

Below is our latest look at the most recent results that caused notable shifts in the landscape.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Davison 35, Grand Blanc 21 Davison clinched a share of the Saginaw Valley League Red championship, moved to 8-0 overall this season and jumped three spots back to No. 3 on the Division 1 playoff-points average list. That’s a strong haul from a third-straight win over the Cardinals’ biggest rival, but their regular-season work isn’t done yet. Grand Blanc (5-3) still could end up with a share of the Red title if Lapeer is able to catch Davison this week. Click for more from WJRT.

Watch list Ubly 42, Cass City 8 After reaching Ford Field two of the last three season, Ubly (8-0) appears locked in for another run. The Bearcats won this matchup of Greater Thumb Conference division champions to jump to a season-best No. 3 on the Division 8 playoff-points average list. Cass City (6-2) remains firmly in the middle of the Division 7 list.

On the move Harbor Beach 18, Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 6 Its only loss to Ubly, Harbor Beach (7-1) further set itself up for a possible playoff rematch with this win over the Division 7 hopeful Lakers (4-4). Midland 41, Lapeer 24 Midland (5-3) has been a mainstay on the Division 2 playoff-points average list but firmed up its position with its best win this season, as Lapeer also is 5-3. Saginaw Swan Valley 14, Birch Run 10 A three-game winning streak has Swan Valley (5-3) up to No. 18 on the Division 5 playoff-points average list after sitting just outside the top 32 after Week 3. Birch Run (5-3) remains No. 4 on the same list.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Detroit Cass Tech 24, Detroit Martin Luther King 23 Cass Tech (6-2) finished a season sweep of its rival to complete a Detroit Public School League Blue championship. Five of the last six meetings between these PSL powers have been decided by seven points or fewer, and Corey Sadler Jr. was a difference maker in several ways as the Technicians firmed up their position in the Division 1 playoff field. King (4-4), meanwhile, moved up in Division 3 as well. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press.

Watch list Gibraltar Carlson 20, Allen Park 18 Carlson (7-1) has guaranteed itself at least a share of the Downriver League championship for the third straight season and can claim it outright for the first time during this streak this week against Lincoln Park. In handing Allen Park (7-1) its only loss, the Marauders capitalized with a five-position boost to No. 2 on the Division 2 playoff-points average list.

On the move Detroit Denby 29, Detroit Central 28 Denby (8-0) played by far its closest game of an otherwise dominating run to earn the PSL Blue championship. Central (4-4), which also lost to Denby 38-24 in Week 4, is one of only two opponents to score on Denby this fall. Northville 28, Novi 14 The winner-take-all for the Kensington Lakes Activities Association East title went to Northville (8-0), which continued its ascension after finishing second in the league a year ago and 3-6 in 2021. Novi (6-2), similarly, has guaranteed its best finish since 2016. West Bloomfield 31, Southfield Arts & Technology 20 In handing the Warriors (7-1) their only loss, West Bloomfield was able to nearly switch spots with A&T on the Division 1 playoff-points average list – the Lakers moved from No. 11 to 7, and Southfield moved from No. 4 to 11.\

Mid-Michigan 

HEADLINER Mason 30, Walled Lake Western 7 Walled Lake Western was top-ranked and Mason tied with Zeeland West for No. 2 in last week’s Division 3 coaches poll, but Mason (8-0) didn’t allow a point after the first quarter while its offensive stars found their footing including senior running back AJ Martel a week after setting the school’s career rushing record. Walled Lake Western (7-1) remains No. 1 on the Division 3 playoff-points average list, with Mason No. 4 but with another chance to gain this week against Fenton. Click for more from WILX.

Watch list Corunna 57, Fenton 7 In commanding fashion, Corunna (8-0) won the Flint Metro League championship game and put itself in position to play for a first perfect regular season since 2002. Fenton (6-2), as noted above, will face another undefeated team in its regular-season finale in Mason.

On the move Portland 41, Lansing Sexton 0 In another dominating performance, Portland (8-0) won this winner-take-all for the Capital Area Activities Conference White championship, stopping Sexton (7-1) and an offense that was averaging 37 points per game. Mount Pleasant 42, Midland Dow 7 After a big Week 1 loss to Saginaw Heritage, Mount Pleasant may have faded from the championship focus a bit – but the Oilers are back in a big way, having clinched the SVL Blue title outright and sitting in the No. 3 spot on the Division 3 playoff-points average list for the second-straight week after putting Dow (4-4) back outside the field at No. 34 in Division 2. Hastings 51, Jackson Northwest 14 Despite a 1-2 start in nonleague play, Hastings (6-2) also has bounced back in a big way and with this win clinched the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference title while moving to No. 8 on the Division 4 playoff-points average list.

Davison defenders swarm during their win over Grand Blanc.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Gaylord 24, Jackson Lumen Christi 21 During a stunning season for Gaylord (8-0), and a weekend with plenty of stunners statewide, the Blue Devils made another headline by remaining undefeated while handing Lumen Christi (7-1) its only loss. The reigning Division 7 champion Titans had won 18 straight games going back to September 2022. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.

Watch list East Jordan 38, Frankfort 36 This was similarly massive among the small schools up north, as East Jordan (7-1) scored during the closing seconds to take a winner-take-all and its second Northern Michigan Football Conference Legacy title over the last three seasons. Frankfort (6-2) finished second for the third consecutive season.

On the move Benzie Central 28, Maple City Glen Lake 14 A third-straight win sent Benzie (5-3) up six spots on the Division 7 playoff-points average list to No. 15 and Glen Lake (4-4) down seven spots to No. 29 in Division 8. Petoskey 27, Sault Ste. Marie 7 With another tough opponent in Clare this week, there was some added urgency in this matchup for Petoskey – and the Northmen (5-3) jumped eight spots on the Division 3 playoff-points average list to No. 24 while Sault Ste. Marie (5-3) fell six spots in Division 4 to No. 32. Boyne City 28, Oscoda 0 Despite still falling one spot on the Division 6 list to No. 27, Boyne City (4-4) also connected on a must-win as it seeks to reach the playoffs for the 10th time in 12 seasons.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Dundee 22, Hudson 16 (OT) After losing to Hudson the last three years by 14, 28 and then 29 points last fall, respectively, Dundee took its opportunity to impact this week’s Lenawee County Athletic Association championship decider between Hudson and Clinton, with Hudson (7-1) now needing a win to share the title instead of winning it outright. More importantly, the Vikings (5-3) also jumped two spots into No. 32 on the Division 5 playoff-points average list. Click for more from the Monroe News. 

Watch list Ann Arbor Pioneer 40, Ann Arbor Huron 38 Pioneer, 5-3 this fall after going a combined 2-22 over the last three seasons, had lost three straight to Huron (4-4) including 57-0 a year ago. Thanks to this win, Pioneer also jumped five spots to No. 20 on the Division 1 playoff-points average list.

On the move Chelsea 17, Trenton 14 (OT) Myles Bieber made three field goals for Chelsea (7-1), including one to tie the score with 34 seconds left in regulation and then the game-winner in overtime after Trenton (4-4) threw an interception. Michigan Center 42, Manchester 27 After its league title chances all but ended with a Week 7 loss to Napoleon, Michigan Center (6-2) bounced back to secure second place and move to No. 17 on the Division 6 playoff-points average list while Manchester (6-2) is No. 12 in Division 7. Ottawa Lake Whiteford 45, Union City 7 Whiteford (8-0) won a matchup of league champions and maintained its top spot on the Division 8 playoff-points average list while Union City (6-2) fell to No. 15 on the Division 7 tracker.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Lawton 21, Saugatuck 0 By handing Schoolcraft and Saugatuck (7-1) their only league losses over the last two weeks, Lawton (7-1) secured the Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley championship for the third straight season. Caleb Mallory had two of the Lawton scores, and the Blue Devils stopped a Saugatuck offense averaging 37.3 points per game. See below for more from WZZM.

Watch list Constantine 20, South Haven 0 Constantine (7-1) pushed its SAC Lakeshore winning streak to 20 and its championship streak to five straight with its second shutout in four league games. The Falcons earned a share and can clinch the title outright this week against Parchment, with South Haven (5-3) and Kalamazoo United a game back and hoping for an upset while they also face off.

On the move Berrien Springs 38, Benton Harbor 14 After finishing runner-up last season, Berrien Springs finished an outright championship in the Lakeland Conference and moved up four spots to No. 23 on the Division 5 playoff-points average list. Edwardsburg 34, Vicksburg 20 The Eddies bounced back from two straight losses to keep their playoff hopes alive as they attempt to extend their streak to 14 straight postseasons. After falling out of the top 32 on the Division 4 playoff-points average list in Week 7, the Eddies moved back to No. 30 while Vicksburg fell from No. 30 to 35. Portage Northern 38, Stevensville Lakeshore 17 Coming off a tough loss to rival Portage Central, Northern (7-1) climbed back up the Division 2 playoff-points average list to No. 9, while Lakeshore fell to No. 16 on the Division 3 tracker.

An Otsego rusher charges into the line during a rainy 47-6 win by Paw Paw.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Kingsford 41, Menominee 32 Trailing at halftime, Kingsford (7-1) turned to powerful back Elizin Rouse and followed his historic performance to a share of the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper title in the first season in the league for both teams after previously playing football in the Great Northern Conference. Kingsford is the No. 16 team on the Division 6 playoff-points average list, and Menominee (6-2) fell only to No. 7 in Division 7. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Watch list Bark River-Harris 56, Manistique 14 After falling back as far as No. 38 on the Division 8 playoff-points average list, Bark River-Harris (5-3) has won three straight and is back to No. 26, with Manistique (4-4) still on the bubble in Division 7 at No. 36.

On the move Negaunee 13, Houghton 6 Negaunee (7-1) also secured a share of the Copper title while holding off a potential spoiler in Houghton (2-6). Marquette 28, Cadillac 13 The bounce-back season continued as Marquette (5-2) secured at least second in the Big North Conference with a chance at a league title share if Sault Ste. Marie can catch Gaylord this week. Cadillac (4-4) remains in the postseason running in Division 3 at No. 30 on that playoff-points average list, while Marquette moved up to No. 20. Gladstone 28, Calumet 21 Gladstone (6-2) is back to No. 7 on the Division 6 playoff-points average list, while Calumet (3-5) sits No. 36.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Rockford 34, Grandville 13 Make that five straight Ottawa-Kent Conference Red championships for the Rams (8-0), who clinched a share and can finish an outright title this week against Hudsonville. Grandville (6-2) did give the Rams their closest league game so far, but quarterback Drake Irwin continued to shine with two rushing and two passing touchdowns for Rockford. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Watch list Grand Rapids Catholic Central 21, Grand Rapids South Christian 12 A year ago it was South Christian (6-2) winning this matchup and eventually the O-K Gold title, but this time GRCC (7-1) took it back and needs only to defeat winless Ottawa Hills this week to finish an outright championship run.

On the move Byron Center 9, East Grand Rapids 0 Six of eight teams in the O-K White remain .500 or better overall, but Byron Center (7-1) is tied at the top with Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central with one league game left for both and East Grand Rapids (6-2) now tied for third. Muskegon Mona Shore 14, Zeeland West 6 Both are left chasing Muskegon in the O-K Green after both falling to the Big Reds, but from a playoffs point of view this was huge as Mona Shores (6-2) moved up six spots to No. 13 on the Division 2 list and Zeeland West (6-2) fell back only three to No. 13 in Division 3. Montague 24, Manistee 22 Montague (4-4) got a big boost as it bounces back from a 2-4 start, as this win vaulted the Wildcats five spots on the Division 6 list for the second week in a row, this time to No. 16. Manistee fell back only three spots to No. 5 with a possible rematch ahead.

8-Player

HEADLINER Adrian Lenawee Christian 41, Pittsford 0 It’s been this kind of season for Lenawee Christian (8-0), which for the second time in three weeks handed the first loss to a highly-ranked opponent. Pittsford (7-1) had given up only 54 points total over its seven victories, but the Cougars got to 35-0 by halftime of this Southern Central Athletic Association East clincher. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

Watch list Bay City All Saints 47, Akron-Fairgrove 6 The winner would claim the North Central Thumb League Stripes title outright, and All Saints did so – with the championship its first since sharing the Greater Thumb Conference West title in 2003. These two flip-flopped on the Division 2 playoff-points average list, with All Saints (7-1) moving to No. 8 and Akron-Fairgrove (6-2) at No. 13.

On the move Norway 32, Powers North Central 26 The Knights (6-2) clinched a share of the Great Lakes Eight Conference West title with this win over the reigning champion Jets (6-2). Pickford 60, Newberry 52 Tommy Storey made the record book multiple times in leading Pickford to this outright clincher in the GLEC East, as Newberry (6-2) fell to third. Alcona 66, Rogers City 0 Alcona (7-1) claimed the North Star League Big Dipper title outright after losing by 16 to finish second to Rogers City (4-4) a year ago.

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PHOTOS (Top) Detroit Cass Tech celebrates during its PSL Gold championship win at Ford Field. (Middle) Davison defenders swarm during their win over Grand Blanc. (Below) An Otsego rusher charges into the line during a rainy 47-6 win by Paw Paw. (Top photo by Olivia B. Photography, middle photo by Terry Lyons, below photo by Gary Shook.)