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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Bath and Perry faced off under the lights and rain in Week 9, and both will continue as the playoffs begin this weekend.

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 9 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 23, 2023

By now, you’ve likely moved on to prepping for this weekend’s start of the 2023 Football Playoffs. We don’t blame you – it’s impossible to not look forward at this time of year.

MI Student AidBut we like to say we tell the stories behind the scores – and the Week 9 regular-season scores below tell a lot of the story of how we got here and what’s set to begin.

(And join us again Friday as we switch up the “1st & Goal” preview format to take a look at matchups in every playoff division.)

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Davison 56, Lapeer 55 The Saginaw Valley League Red title race went down to the final minutes and last points of the regular season as Davison (9-0) held on to claim the outright championship; a Lapeer win would have awarded a share of the title to runner-up Grand Blanc. What’s next? The Lightning (5-4) go back to Davison for a Division 1 District Semifinal on Friday. Click for more from the Flint Journal.

Watch list Harbor Beach 17. Beal City 8 This was among the headliners statewide as Harbor Beach (8-1) not only handed Beal City (8-1) its only loss but also leaped to No. 6 on the final playoff-points average list.

On the move Frankenmuth 38, Gladwin 0 Frankenmuth (8-1) went on the road for a rematch of last season’s Division 5 Final, won by Gladwin 10-7 on a closing-seconds field goal, and this time finished a regular-season run that guaranteed home games at least through the Regional and could include hosting the Flying Gs (7-2). Midland Dow 29, Midland 9 This got Dow (5-4) into the playoffs and boosted the Chargers enough to keep them home for a rematch with the Chemics (5-4) this week. Freeland 35, Croswell-Lexington 32 Freeland came back from 26 points down to not only get to (8-1) but eventually earn home field for this week’s game against Lake Fenton, which entered Week 9 only one spot behind the Falcons on the Division 4 playoff-points average list.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Lake Orion 35, Saline 28 These two entered both undefeated and Nos. 4 and 5, respectively, on the Division 1 playoff-points average list. Lake Orion (9-0) finished the weekend with its first perfect regular season since 2006 and the top spot overall in Division 1, guaranteeing itself three home playoff games. The Dragons took their first lead with 4:36 to play. Saline (8-1) moved down only to No. 6 on the Division 1 list and will be home this week as well. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press.

Watch list Harper Woods 24, Roseville 7 The Pioneers (6-3) continued their rise from a 1-2 start and continued to benefit from a loaded schedule by moving up six spots to No. 1 on the final Division 4 playoff-points average list after avenging last season’s 28-0 loss to the Panthers (6-3).

On the move Belleville 42, Northville 0 Belleville (9-0) posted its third-straight shutout and fifth this season to claim the overall Kensington Lakes Activities Association title; the Tigers could see Northville  (8-1) again in a Regional Final. Oxford 24, Detroit U-D Jesuit 21 Oxford (4-5) climbed in the top 32 in Division 1 playoff-point average last week for the first time this season and stayed there by edging Jesuit (6-2). Birmingham Seaholm 21, Birmingham Groves 14 Seaholm (8-1) broke a four-game losing streak against its rival, and after falling to Groves in both in the regular season and playoffs last year – and the Maples will host the Falcons (6-3) again this week.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER East Lansing 35, Grand Ledge 21 East Lansing (7-2) finished an outright Capital Area Activities Conference Blue championship, its first league title since sharing the Blue in 2019, and jumped up to No. 10 on the Division 2 playoff-points average list while securing home games through the District Final. Grand Ledge (6-3), last year’s Blue co-champion, narrowly missed getting a home game and will travel in Division 1. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Portland 43, Berrien Springs 0 The Raiders (9-0) capped their first perfect regular season since 2018 with their second straight shutout and this one over another league champion in Berrien Springs (5-3).

On the move Hastings 38, Battle Creek Pennfield 3 Hastings (7-2) clinched the outright Interstate 8 Activities Conference title, the Saxons’ fourth-straight league championship (including one shared), but Pennfield also can be pleased finishing 4-5 after going 0-9 a year ago. Belding 66, Howard City Tri County 20 The Black Knights (8-1) scored a season high in their best win of the regular season as they finished 8-1 for the second straight. Tri County (7-2) helped provide the boost to keep Belding No. 5 on the final Division 5 playoff-points average list. Bath 28, Perry 6 While Perry (5-4) did still qualify for the playoffs for the first time, Bath (6-3) celebrated on this night and has made the playoffs for the second straight while also earning a home game this week in Division 7.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Gaylord 20, Sault Ste. Marie 8 Just two seasons after going 2-7, Gaylord (9-0) completed its first perfect regular season since 2002 and finished off a Big North Conference outright championship in the process. The win also kept Gaylord at No. 6 in Division 3 playoff-points average and guaranteed them home games through the District, but also likely kept Sault Ste. Marie (5-4) out of claiming one of the final spots in the Division 4 bracket. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.

Watch list Traverse City St. Francis 27, Muskegon Catholic Central 0 Last season’s Division 7 runner-up Gladiators had a lot of faces in different places or larger roles starting this fall, but they’ve qualified for the Division 7 playoffs thanks to a tough schedule and three wins over playoff teams including this one over MCC (5-4).

On the move Cheboygan 29, Benzie Central 25 Proving again that there’s always something to play for, Cheboygan (1-8) scored a season high in points, gave up their second fewest and closed a tough fall with an upset of playoff-bound Benzie (5-4). Traverse City West 17, Traverse City Central 8 Central (4-5) grabbed one of the final spots in the Division 2 playoff field and West (4-5) fell just three outside of qualifying, but the Titans surely should celebrate doubling their win total from a year ago and breaking a four-game losing streak against their rival. Ogemaw Heights 21, Almont 7 Ogemaw Heights (8-1) tied its winningest season since 2009, handing Almont (8-1) its only defeat, and earned a rematch, this time at home, against the only team it lost to this fall – Week 1 opponent Gladwin.

A Lapeer defender pursues a Davison ball carrier during Friday's 56-55 Cardinals win.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Addison 24, Napoleon 0 The timing couldn’t have been better for Addison to show arguably its best performance. The Panthers (9-0) earned the overall Cascades Conference championship in this matchup of previous undefeated divisional winners, posting their first shutout of the fall against an offense that was scoring 42 points per game, to avenge last year’s 36-18 loss and to move up to No. 5 on the Division 8 playoff-points average list with a home game against Hudson coming up next. Napoleon (8-1) will open the playoffs at home as well. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen Patriot.

Watch list Clinton 29, Hudson 0 With its second-straight shutout, Clinton (8-1) clinched an outright championship in the Lenawee County Athletic Association for the second-straight season. A Hudson win would have meant a shared title with the Tigers (7-2). Clinton has four shutouts this fall and suffered its only loss in the season opener.

On the move Chelsea 31, Dexter 21 After opening in August with a loss to Grand Rapids Northview, Chelsea (8-1) has been on a roll and made its loudest statement against the Dreadnaughts (6-3), who also hadn’t lost since starting 0-2. Ida 14, Dundee 7 Ida (5-4) jumped from No. 32 to a more comfortable No. 25 in Division 6 playoff-point average with this win, while Dundee (5-4) was left four spots outside the field in Division 5. Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 28, Detroit Country Day 27 A tough schedule already had SMCC (5-4) in fine shape to make the playoffs, but the Falcons have won three straight to move up to No. 5 on the Division 7 playoff-points average list, in this one handing County Day (3-5) its third loss by six or fewer points this fall.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Niles 56, Paw Paw 18 Niles pulled away from what had been a much closer game at halftime, in doing so claiming the Wolverine Conference championship outright and assuring itself of home games through the Regional. Moreover, the Vikings (8-1) reached eight wins for the first time since 1979, according to Michigan-Football.com, and they could host Paw Paw (8-1) if both win their Division 4 District Semifinals this week. Click for more from the Niles Daily Star.

Watch list Buchanan 34, Union City 0 The Bucks (6-3) enter the Division 6 playoffs on an impressive defensive streak, as they haven’t given up a point over their last three games – including this one against the playoff-bound Chargers (6-3).

On the move South Haven 44, Kalamazoo United 42 South Haven (6-3) will host a Division 5 playoff opener after edging the Titans (5-4), who had defeated the Rams the last two seasons including in a 2021 playoff opener. Benton Harbor 24, Hopkins 16 The Tigers’ playoff chances seemed slimmer after a tough run midseason during which they lost two one-score games over three weeks, but Benton Harbor (4-5) won two of its final three games to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 2017 (not counting 2020, when all teams qualified because of the COVID-adjusted schedule). Portage Central 42, Stevensville Lakeshore 0 Portage Central (8-1) completed an outright championship run in the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference with its first shutout of the fall. Lakeshore (5-4) has reason to be pleased as well this week, as it finished the regular season back in the playoffs and two wins better than a year ago.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Iron Mountain 42, Negaunee 7 There’s conversation that Iron Mountain (9-0) may be the Upper Peninsula’s best team regardless of division this fall, and it’s hard to argue with success. The Mountaineers haven’t been challenged much after moving into the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Iron, but this win over Copper co-champion Negaunee (7-2) says plenty and kept Iron Mountain in position to host both District rounds. Click for more from UPMatters.com.

Watch list Kingsford 46, Marquette 11 Kingsford is the other side of the argument for best in the UP, and the Flivvers (8-1) have their most wins since 2017 and are a one-point loss to Negaunee from a perfect regular season. This defeat of Division 3 Marquette (5-3) pushed Kingsford to No. 10 on the Division 5 playoff-points average list.  

On the move Menominee 44, Bark River-Harris 14 The Maroons (7-2) bounced back from back-to-back losses to hold steady at No. 7 on the Division 7 playoff-points average list, but ended playoff hopes for Bark River-Harris (5-4) in the process. Gladstone 30, Escanaba 0 Gladstone (7-2) is No. 6 on the Division 6 list and will be home for both District rounds as well. Ishpeming 30, Ishpeming Westwood 0 The Hematites (6-3) have their best record since 2019 after ending a three-game losing streak to rival Westwood.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Wayland 49, Grand Rapids South Christian 40 Wayland not only qualified for the playoffs for the first time since 2013 (not counting 2020’s COVID-related format), but the Wildcats (6-3) with this win downed the reigning Division 4 champion and reached six wins for the first time since that playoff season a decade ago. They’ll go to South Christian (6-3) this week for a Division 4 District Semifinal. Click for more from Michigan Sports Radio.

Watch list Hart 44, Ravenna 0 Hart (8-1) will be making its first playoff appearance this week (not counting 2020), coming off its first win over Ravenna (3-6) since 1992 and after losing to the Bulldogs 48-0 a year ago. The eight wins are the program’s most since 1968.

On the move Rockford 48, Hudsonville 0 The Rams (9-0) finished an outright Ottawa-Kent Conference Red championship and fourth-straight perfect regular season, and could see Hudsonville (5-4) again in a District Final. Muskegon Reeths-Puffer 14, Zeeland West 12 After losing to West by 40 two seasons ago and 18 last fall, Reeths-Puffer (7-2) edged the Dux (6-3) to get to seven wins for the first time since 2013. Zeeland East 21, Muskegon Mona Shores 20 (OT) Similarly, East (6-3) had fallen to Mona Shores (6-3) by 19 in 2021 and then 35 last year before this win that boosted the Chix to No. 16 on the Division 3 playoff-points average list.

8-Player

HEADLINER Indian River Inland Lakes 36, Gaylord St. Mary 30 Inland Lakes (8-1) ran its Ski Valley Conference title streak to all three since joining the league, taking this winner-take-all matchup. Inland Lakes also moved up to No. 5 on the 8-player Division 1 playoff-points average list, while St. Mary (6-3) fell two spots and missed qualifying by four slots. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.

Watch list Posen 46, Au Gres-Sims 42 This winner-take-all for the North Star League Little Dipper title went Posen’s way after Au Gres-Sims (7-2) won their Week 9 matchup last season to claim the championship. Posen is 8-0 and set to host both Division 2 Regional rounds.

On the move Fulton 36, Carson City-Crystal 28 Fulton (6-3) sat three spots off the Division 2 playoff list heading into the weekend, but reached the final spot in the field by handing Carson City-Crystal (8-1) its only loss. Powers North Central 48, Crystal Falls Forest Park 24 The three-time reigning Division 2 champion Jets (7-2) also were in danger of missing the playoffs in the No. 16 slot when the weekend began – but moved up to No. 14 by getting past the Trojans (7-2). They could meet again in a Regional Final. St. Ignace 42, Pickford 10 The Saints (8-1) handed Pickford its only loss, limiting an offense that entered averaging 54 points per game. A rematch would come in a Division 1 Semifinal.

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PHOTO Bath and Perry faced off under the lights and rain in Week 9, and both will continue as the playoffs begin this weekend. (Middle) A Lapeer defender pursues a Davison ball carrier during Friday's 56-55 Cardinals win. (Top photo by Max McCallister. Middle photo by Terry Lyons.)