Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Chesaning Turnaround Ahead of Schedule with League Title, Playoff Return
By
Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com
October 25, 2023
Brayden Florian knew this was coming eventually.
The Chesaning junior running back and middle linebacker was sure the coaching staff and players were in place for a program turnaround.
But this fast?
“No,” Florian said matter-of-factly. “I definitely saw the progress, and we had gotten better and better since my freshman year. We just kept getting better. I didn’t expect it to happen this fast.”
Chesaning is 8-1 in its second year under head coach Matthew Walter, won the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference for the first time, and – not counting the 2020 COVID season when every team was added to the playoffs – qualified for the postseason for the first time since 2007, playing host to Central Montcalm on Friday.
It’s the best regular season for the program since 2001, the year Chesaning won its second MHSAA Finals title in four years.
You can forgive Florian for not expecting this to happen this quickly. Even his coach had a more long-term plan in place.
“When I took over, my plan was more to build the program than just wins and losses,” Walter said. “Numbers were dwindling. I felt like the community was not happy. I know that winning solves a lot of problems, but when I came in I wanted to make sure I built a program from the bottom up. We brought back (youth) tackle football. We have (youth) flag in the fall and spring. That’s kind of where you have to start. Once you do that, you have people buy in up higher and higher into middle school, then high school. I didn’t expect it to be this quick. I kind of had like a five or six-year plan, just trying to generate some excitement.”
It didn’t take long, however, to realize that maybe his timeline wasn’t accelerated enough.
In Year 1, Chesaning went 5-4, its first winning record since 2014. And while some of the losses were lopsided, Walter said people both in and out of the program noticed that things were looking up.
So, heading into this season, there was complete buy-in all around. And while Walter had been laying a foundation for future success, his 5-6 year plan was becoming a 2-year one.
“We have a great group of kids right now,” he said. “They work really hard, and they bought in right away.”
Chesaning players were so bought in, that not even a Week 1 loss to Bath could deter them. In fact, when Walter was cleaning up in the locker room following the game, he found that his team had left him – and themselves – a note on the whiteboard.
“It said, ‘The 1998 team started 0-1,’” Walter said. “I was like, ‘Wow, they know that?’”
The 1998 team won Chesaning’s first Finals title, rattling off 12 straight wins after dropping its opener against then arch-rival Millington.
Like this year’s version of Chesaning, the 1998 team had much of its production come from a stellar junior class. Walter said he’s also been told of the extreme competitiveness of that team, something he sees while watching his current players not only on the field, but when they’re in practice, or even coaching youth flag football against one another.
While Walter wants his team to create its own identity, the comparisons certainly aren’t a bad thing.
“We talk about it – about our history and how much history we’ve made and our team has made,” senior receiver and defensive end Keighan Stoddard said. “It’s a really big inspiration, honestly.”
Wherever the inspiration came from, it worked. After the loss against Bath, Chesaning rattled off eight straight wins with an average margin of victory of 24.8 points per game.
Chesaning knocked off rivals New Lothrop and Montrose – both on the road – for the first time since 2005.
Those wins came behind a dynamic run game, led by Florian. He finished the regular season with 1,689 yards and 17 touchdowns on the ground. He did so behind linemen Seth Schlicht, Braden Burtch, Ben Fowler, Braydn Wendling, and John Talbot. Only Fowler is a senior.
Junior quarterback Max Volk threw just 100 passes on the year, but he accumulated 801 yards and 14 TDs. Florian caught five of those touchdowns, as did 6-foot-6 senior wideout Mason Struck. Stoddard, an all-state selection at receiver a year ago, is also an option and has a pair of touchdown grabs. But his focus has been shifted more toward defensive end, a new position in which he’s flourished with 58 tackles, 12 for loss, and six sacks.
“Anything to help my teammates,” he said. “Anything to help the team out, I’ll do anything. As long as we get that win, it doesn’t matter.”
With 2023 giving off feelings of 1998 and 2001, the Friday night atmosphere from those days has also come back to Chesaning.
It’s been evident on game nights, and even during the playoff selection show, when a team trip to the Riverfront Bar and Grill turned into a community event.
“I told the families that we were going to (be there) at 5, and at 6 they were more than welcome to come down and join us,” Walter said. “By 5:30, that place was packed. There were no spots; it was standing room only.”
So when Chesaning hosts a playoff game Friday night for the first time since 2001, the anticipation is an atmosphere not seen since.
“It’s the first playoff game in a long time, and one we actually earned,” Florian said. “I think it’s going to be a big-time atmosphere.”
Paul Costanzo served as a sportswriter at The Port Huron Times Herald from 2006-15, including three years as lead sportswriter, and prior to that as sports editor at the Hillsdale Daily News from 2005-06. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Saginaw, Bay, Arenac, Midland and Gladwin counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Chesaning’s Mason Struck (27) goes high to get his hands on the ball in the end zone during his team’s win over Durand. (Middle) Ben Fowler (63) prepares to lead his team onto the field. (Below) Brayden Florian (11) gets to the edge against Ovid-Elsie. (Photos courtesy of the Chesaning football program.)