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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Clarkston's Desman Stephans II dives for the end zone during his team's 33-10 Division 1 playoff win over Romeo.

1st & Goal: 2023 Playoff Week 1 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 30, 2023

The first weekend of MHSAA Football Playoffs sees the initial field of 288 teams cut in half, with 144 moving on either to District Finals in 11-player or Regional Finals in the 8-player divisions.

MI Student AidBut it’s a milestone weekend for many as well.

Football is the one MHSAA Tournament team sport requiring contenders to qualify for the postseason. That’s an accomplishment in itself, of course.

But making it then also opens the door for more – and so while we listed plenty of highlights below for championship hopefuls moving on, we also included plenty of context on what those that advanced and some that did not also achieved by making it this far.

11-Player Division 1

HEADLINER Grandville 22, Hudsonville 21 Only two Division 1 playoff games were decided by fewer than 21 points, and Grandville (8-2) came back from two touchdowns down to finish a season sweep of the Eagles (5-5) after previously defeating them 44-37 in Week 5. The win earned the Bulldogs a rematch with Rockford. Click for more from Michigan Sports Radio.

District Digest Macomb Dakota 10, St. Clair Shores Lakeview 7 This was Division 1’s only other close game, and Dakota (8-2) earned the opportunity to play for a third-straight District title while Lakeview closed 7-3. West Bloomfield 42, Rochester Adams 14 The Lakers (8-2) finished a season sweep of their Oakland Activities Association Red rival after Adams (6-4) swept them in 2021 and won last year’s lone meeting. Detroit Cass Tech 35, Westland John Glenn 14 The Technicians (7-3) went on the road and ended John Glenn’s most successful season since 2009 at 7-3.

11-Player Division 2

HEADLINER White Lake Lakeland 28, Milford 21 Lakeland (7-3) edged Lakes Valley Conference rival Milford (6-4) by seven points for the second week in a row, this time with the last-second heroics of Trevor Tschudin creating one of the first round’s most memorable highlights. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

District Digest Birmingham Seaholm 56, Birmingham Groves 49 Seaholm quarterback Colton Kinnie was among the stars as the Maples also held off Groves for the second week in a row after also winning by seven, 21-14, in Week 9. Midland Dow 14, Midland 7 This Week 9 rematch also saw the same winner but by a much closer score as Dow (6-4) had defeated the Chemics (5-5) 29-9 the first time around. Gibraltar Carlson 42, Livonia Churchill 35 Carlson (9-1) withstood a significant challenge from Churchill, which finished 4-6 and doubled its win total from 2022.

Petoskey's Seth Marek (0) catches a pass from quarterback Joseph McCarthy that he takes into the end zone.

11-Player Division 3

HEADLINER Coopersville 14, East Grand Rapids 13 Coopersville (8-2) hasn’t received enough statewide buzz for its success this season, but this one should gain the Broncos some notice. The win gave them eight for the first time since 2007 as they’ve added to their total now for the third straight season, and Coopersville’s only losses this fall were by a point to Spring Lake and three to undefeated Grand Rapids West Catholic, both during the first half of September. This one over the Pioneers (7-3) was clinched with a two-point conversion try stop. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

District Digest Stevensville Lakeshore 20, St. Joseph 15 After falling to St. Joseph (6-4) in Week 7, 35-0, Lakeshore (6-4) bounced way back and also ended a three-game losing streak in advancing. DeWitt 56, Fenton 28 DeWitt (7-2) defeated Flint Metro League Stripes champion Fenton (6-4) and earned a rematch with Week 2 opponent Mason. Auburn Hills Avondale 34, Holly 24 Avondale (9-1) is enjoining its winningest season since 2012 and earned its first playoff victory since that year. The Bronchos (6-4) completed their winningest season since 2011.

11-Player Division 4

HEADLINER Harper Woods 20, Croswell-Lexington 13 Harper Woods (7-3) ended the regular season with the highest playoff-points average in Division 4, but Croswell-Lexington (7-3) entered this game’s fourth quarter with the lead before the Pioneers scored to move ahead for good. The playoff victory was Harper Woods’ first since 2019 as it continues an impressive rebound from finishing 3-6 a year ago. See below for more from the D Zone.

District Digest Hastings 30, Charlotte 28 The Saxons (8-2) held on to defeat the Orioles (6-4) for the third-straight playoffs and sixth consecutive season overall. Big Rapids 27, Spring Lake 20 (OT) Big Rapids moved to 9-1, reaching nine wins for the first time since 2009 by getting past Spring Lake (7-3) in overtime. Chelsea 49, Tecumseh 35 Chelsea moved to 9-1 as its offense responded repeatedly before pulling away just a bit at the end of finish a season sweep of Tecumseh (5-5).

11-Player Division 5

HEADLINER Muskegon Oakridge 13, Belding 7 Oakridge (7-3) ran its winning streak this fall to four with a playoff win over Belding for the second-straight season. The Eagles handed Belding (8-2) its first loss since Week 2 by stopping an offense that averaged 44 points per game entering the weekend and hadn’t scored fewer than 38 since that previous defeat. Click for more from CatchMark SportsNet.

District Digest Detroit Southeastern 38, Detroit Denby 20 Southeastern (7-3) had tied for second in the Detroit Public School League Blue and over the last two weeks handed Ecorse its only regular-season loss and then downed PSL Gold champion Denby (8-2). Birch Run 37, Saginaw Swan Valley 15 Birch Run (6-4) earned its first playoff win since 2010 and guaranteed its winningest season since 2014 in avenging a 14-10 Week 8 loss to the Vikings (5-5). Corunna 45, Flint Hamady 7 Corunna (10-0) won the only first-round matchup of undefeated teams as a defense that’s given up only 5.9 points per game this fall continued to dominate against the Hawks (8-1) – who hadn’t given up a point since Week 6.

11-Player Division 6

HEADLINER Hart 44, Kent City 22 After reaching the playoffs for the first time (not counting COVID-shortened 2020), Hart now has its first playoff win as well as the Pirates (9-1) put up 44 or more points for the fourth straight game. Connor Edwards ran for 204 yards and three touchdowns in helping to end Kent City’s eighth-straight winning season at 7-3. Click for more from CatchMark SportsNet.

District Digest Midland Bullock Creek 22, Clare 19 Bullock Creek (7-3) has followed up two straight sub-.500 seasons with its winningest since 2007, throwing for the game-clinching touchdown during the final minute to get past Clare (7-3). Lansing Catholic 35, Michigan Center 34 Lansing Catholic (4-6) was one of only three three-win teams to reach the playoffs, and the Cougars made it count in upsetting Michigan Center (7-3) to make it seven consecutive seasons with at least one postseason win. Detroit Edison 22, Detroit Old Redford 0 Edison (7-3) secured the winningest season in program history by ending Old Redford’s winningest season all-time at 8-2.

11-Player Division 7

HEADLINER North Muskegon 27, Union City 14 The West Michigan Conference Rivers champion Norsemen (10-0) claimed this matchup of league title winners, ending the season for Big 8 Conference champ Union City (6-4). North Muskegon also reached double-digit victories for the first time since 1986. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

District Digest Charlevoix 31, Traverse City St. Francis 7 Charlevoix (9-1) avenged its lone loss, 41-40 to St. Francis (4-5) in the season opener, and the nine wins are the program’s most since going undefeated in 1977, according to Michigan-Football.com. Bath 16, Laingsburg 14 Bath (7-3) guaranteed its winningest season since 2000 by avenging a 17-6 Week 6 loss to the Wolfpack (4-6). Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 10, Detroit Loyola 7 (OT) Drew Harris drilled a game-winning field goal to add to SMCC’s combined 17-6 record in the playoffs over the last seven seasons. Loyola finished 4-6, an improvement of three wins from a year ago.

11-Player Division 8

HEADLINER Ithaca 28, Fowler 27 These two traded scores to the end before Ithaca (10-0) stopped a two-point conversion try during the final minutes to remain undefeated and also reach double-digit wins for the second-straight season. Both offenses scored the most the opposing defenses had given up this fall, as Ithaca still has allowed only 7.3 ppg and Fowler finished having given up just 8.1. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun.

District Digest Hudson 40, Addison 0 This was another of the weekend’s stunners as Hudson (8-2) bounced back from two straight losses to hand Addison (9-1) its only defeat. Ishpeming 20, East Jordan 6 After starting this season 1-3, Ishpeming (7-3) long ago guaranteed its first winning season since 2019, and with this victory ended East Jordan’s winningest season since 1999 at 8-2. Allen Park Cabrini 35, Sterling Heights Parkway Christian 27 Cabrini (5-5) was 2-7 just a year ago but has won three straight games this month and in this one avenged a 50-21 Week 2 loss to Parkway (7-3).

A collection of Martin defenders wrap up a Marcellus ball carrier.

8-Player Division 1

HEADLINER Gobles 50, Mendon 14 Gobles’ first 8-player playoff win in its fourth season since switching formats was one to remember, as the Tigers (8-2) avenged last year’s 36-6 regular-season loss to Mendon and also ended the season for the 2022 Division 2 runner-up Hornets (7-3). Gobles earned a rematch with last season’s Division 1 champion, Martin, after defeating the Clippers 53-16 in Week 4. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Regional Roundup Indian River Inland Lakes 22, Alcona 6 This matchup of league champions went to the Ski Valley Conference’s Inland Lakes (9-1), which held the North Star League Big Dipper’s Alcona (8-2) to well below its average of 51.4 ppg heading into the weekend. Martin 44, Marcellus 18 The Clippers (8-2) are undefeated since that Gobles loss and earned the rematch by winning this rematch with Marcellus after also downing the Wildcats (7-3) in Week 8. Marcellus capped its winningest season since 1998. Kingston 46, Merrill 6 Kingston (8-2) ended the season for the 2022 Division 1 runner-up Vandals (8-2), coming back off a Week 9 loss to earn its first playoff victory since 2019.

8-Player Division 2

HEADLINER Powers North Central 54, Posen 20 The three-time reigning Division 2 champion isn’t done yet. Despite suffering its first defeats this fall since 2019, North Central (8-2) is off to another big playoff start after hitting the road and dealing Posen (8-1) its only loss to reach the Regional Finals for the fifth-straight season. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.

Regional Roundup Marion 64, Bay City All Saints 14 Another matchup of league champions saw West Michigan D League title winner Marion (9-0) remain undefeated by downing the North Central Thumb League Stripes’ All Saints (7-3). Lake Linden-Hubbell 27, Crystal Falls Forest Park 6 In a repeat of 2022, Lake Linden-Hubbell (7-3) won the playoff rematch with Forest Park (7-3) after falling during the regular season, this time avenging a 36-28 defeat. Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 34, Au Gres-Sims 0 Au Gres-Sims (7-3) averaged 50 points per game this season, but Sacred Heart’s defense lowered its average allowed to 16.4 with its second shutout of the fall as the Irish moved to 9-1.

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PHOTOS (Top) Clarkston's Desman Stephans II dives for the end zone during his team's 33-10 Division 1 playoff win over Romeo. (Middle) Petoskey's Seth Marek (0) catches a pass from quarterback Joseph McCarthy that he takes into the end zone. (Below) A collection of Martin defenders wrap up a Marcellus ball carrier. (Top photo by Chris Mudd/National Photo Scout. Middle photo by Cara Kamps. Below photo by Gary Shook.)