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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Niles Brandywine football

1st & Goal: 2021 Week 1 in Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

August 30, 2021

Michigan high school football has been ripe for a fresh start after a COVID-rattled 2020 (and into 2021) season. 

Win or lose this past weekend, nearly 600 varsity football teams across the state should continue to have plenty to look forward to this fall – and of course, some have a few more reasons for early excitement.

Four of last season's champions fell, which meant big headlines for Rochester Adams, Edwardsburg, Jackson Lumen Christi and Niles Brandywine. Three showcase events further fed anticipation as top teams gave us first looks at what we can expect over the next three months. 

Below is our look back at Week 1 and some of the results that could matter most as we start another 14-week championship chase. 

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Grand Blanc 40 East Lansing 34 The premier matchup of the Vehicle City Gridiron Classic pitted two of the highest-regarded teams in the state, and didn’t disappoint. The Bobcats emerged with Elijah Jackson-Anderson and kicker Dylan Hertzberg providing plenty of offense – Hertzberg had four field goals – while in defeat Brevin Jackson (396) and receiver Mason Woods (212) set Trojans single-game school records for passing and receiving yardage, respectively. Click for more from the Flint Journal.

Watch list Millington 42, Cass City 19 The Cardinals are carrying the longest current streak of winning seasons (32) in the state, but doubling up a Cass City team that came within two points of making last season’s Division 7 championship game has to be one of Millington’s best opening wins during that streak.

Remember this one Hemlock 33, Breckenridge 8 Hemlock’s Huskies are looking to take another step after three-straight eight-win seasons and only one loss a year ago, and downing Breckenridge’s Huskies in this fashion is a notable.  

More shoutouts Freeland 24, Clare 14 The Falcons enjoyed another great start after making the Semifinals last season, against a Clare team that lost only in the playoffs. Saginaw Nouvel 21, Sandusky 6 The Panthers also enjoyed a solid start against a Sandusky team coming off a one-loss season.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 45, Detroit Catholic Central 20 This Xenith Prep Kick Off Classic matchup featured two are sure to be counted among Division 1 title contenders in two months, and Chippewa Valley’s start is especially impressive coming off a 3-4 finish a year ago. Cephus Harris scored four touchdowns as one of many standouts for the Big Reds, while DCC QB Declan Byle made some big-play throws that surely will have defenses on notice. Click for more from the Macomb Daily.

Watch list Rochester Adams 35, West Bloomfield 17 The memory of last season’s 3-4 finish for Adams should be drifting away after the Highlanders downed the reigning Division 1 champion, avenging a 37-0 defeat and breaking a four-game losing streak against the Lakers.

Remember this one Clarkston 29, Davison 26 Both lost just once last season – Davison in the Division 1 championship game and Clarkston in a District Semifinal – and it would hardly be shocking to see them meet up again in November. This time, Davison led at halftime and Clarkston came back and then held off a late rally.

More shoutouts Dearborn Fordson 38, Canton 23 The Tractors also earned an impressive win over a team that lost just once last season – and Antonio Gates Jr. was just fun to watch with two touchdown catches and two interceptions. Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice 35, Macomb Dakota 21 Two traditional powers, another big-time opener – and this one saw Rice take a 21-0 lead, Dakota tie it in the fourth quarter and Rice then pull away.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER DeWitt 47, Traverse City Central 27 With a star quarterback and two college-bound receivers back from last season’s Division 3 championship team, DeWitt’s offense wasn’t going to sneak up on anyone. But the Panthers’ playmakers were among the most impressive of Battle at the Big House performers as quarterback Tyler Holtz connected with three receivers for six touchdown passes total, including four to Bryce Kurncz. Central had given up only 18.7 points per game last season in reaching the Division 2 Semifinals. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Williamston 43, Croswell-Lexington 20 The Hornets reached the Division 4 Semifinals last season, and they rolled out of the gate again with this road win over a Croswell-Lexington team that lost to only one opponent (twice) in 2020.

Remember this one Charlotte 49, Olivet 40 Olivet has been the more football successful of these neighbors for going on two decades, and they only started playing each other last season for the first time at least in recent history. But Charlotte won’t be forgetting this one any time soon after winning two games a year ago and falling to the Eagles 28-14 in that 2020 meeting.

More shoutouts Grand Ledge 36, Coldwater 14 The Comets also may have set the stage for a big season with a strong road win against a Coldwater program that regularly is among contenders in its league. Lansing Eastern 36, Flint Hamady 0 The Quakers didn’t play at all last season, and their two wins in 2019 were also their only two over a five-season stretch. But Eastern came out big against a Hamady team that hasn’t finished less than .500 since 2014.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Cadillac 18, Reed City 14 The reigning Division 4 runner-up Vikings should make a run at being the top team from the northern Lower Peninsula, and this victory should be a pretty strong catalyst with Traverse City West and Central looming in league play. Cadillac held the Coyotes scoreless over the second half, and the defeat was only the fifth for Reed City during the regular season over the last seven years. Click for more from the Cadillac News.

Watch list East Jordan 36, Johannesburg-Lewiston 12 The Red Devils are seeking their first winning season since 2016 and have come close over the last two. Defeating the Cardinals is an incredible way to start again as Johannesburg-Lewiston reached the Division 8 Semifinals last season.

Remember this one Traverse City West 35, Midland 28 The Titans won’t be forgetting an impressive comeback including a go-ahead 82-yard punt return touchdown at U-M.

More shoutouts Maple City Glen Lake 35, Houghton Lake 6 Both had winning records and close playoff defeats to end last season, and the Lakers’ offense looks to be humming again. Lake City 30, Beaverton 21 The Trojans had a tough go in 2020, finishing just 2-5 after three winning seasons in a row, but they could be on the move again after edging a Beaverton team coming off a fifth-straight winning campaign.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Jackson Lumen Christi 27, New Lothrop 14 The southeastern section of the Lower Peninsula was loaded with notable finishes, but Lumen Christi toppling the reigning Division 7 champion made the biggest statewide wave. The Titans broke away for the game’s final two scores and stopped a Hornets offense that scored at least 36 points per game in going 11-0 last fall. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen Patriot.

Watch list Ottawa Lake Whiteford 52, Blissfield 21 Whiteford always is in the title mix in the Tri-County Conference, and downing the reigning Lenawee County Athletic Association champ is a great way to prep for another run.

Remember this one Hudson 59, Ithaca 14 Last year’s matchup between the programs owning the longest winning streaks in MHSAA history wasn’t played due to the late season start. But Hudson stormed back to even the recent series after losing to Ithaca in 2019 – a major win as the Tigers go for their first winning season since 2017.

More shoutouts Napoleon 27, Brooklyn Columbia Central 14 The Pirates already have equaled last season’s win total, and in the process broke a five-game opening-night losing streak against the Golden Eagles. Saline 34, Hudsonville 30 The Hornets stopped Hudsonville just short of the goal line on the final play at Michigan Stadium.  

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Niles Brandywine 38, Centreville 32 The Bobcats have been a playoff team for most of the last decade and went 9-1 in 2019. This opening win certainly could spur more big things this fall. Centreville gave up 29 points total in going 11-0 and winning the Division 8 championship last season. Click for more from the Niles Daily Star.

Watch list Edwardsburg 38, Montague 0 Few have slowed down the Eddies’ offense over the last eight years – they scored more than 400 points in all of them – and this seems a strong indicator that things will continue along that track. The defense also deserves plenty of credit for shutting out the reigning Division 6 champ.  

Remember this one Stevensville Lakeshore 26, Portage Central 22 The season is just getting started, but a Lakeshore go-ahead touchdown with 10 minutes to play could mean a lot in the final Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference standings.

More shoutouts Battle Creek Central 12, Portage Northern 6 This is a huge start for the Bearcats. Northern had won the last seven matchups between the two, including last season’s by 40, and went undefeated in league play in 2020 although the SMAC didn’t award a champion because of the abbreviated regular season. Cassopolis 20, Schoolcraft 19 After four straight double-digit win seasons, the Rangers fell back to 2-5 last fall. But defeating a Schoolcraft team coming off a Division 7 Semifinals trip may have begun a fast rebound.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Iron Mountain 14, Negaunee 12 These Western Peninsula Athletic Conference rivals had to take a year off from their annual game because of the shortened 2020 season, but they continued what’s become a series of close finishes – this the third straight decided by three points or fewer. Iron Mountain has won all three, which in this case again means a significant start to the Copper division season. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Watch list Gladstone 26, Calumet 20 (OT) The Braves won their season opener for the fifth year in a row, and the timing of this big victory couldn’t be better – four straight league games are up next.

Remember this one Ishpeming 22, Manistique 6 The Hematites didn’t play a game last season, but they returned with a victory by the identical score of their 2019 opener against Manistique.

More shoutouts Bark River-Harris 28, Gwinn 6 Bark River-Harris closed last season winning five of its last six and making a Division 8 District Final, and they may be back in stride. Ishpeming Westwood 52, Houghton 8 The Patriots extended their winning streak against Houghton to four, setting up this week’s league showdown with the Mountaineers.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Grand Rapids Catholic Central 43, Lapeer 21 The reigning Division 5 champion opened the season for the whole state with a noon Thursday kickoff at the Battle at the Big House, and looked like they’d just left Ford Field in January. QB Joey Silveri threw for two scores and ran for two more, and Nolan Ziegler caught three touchdown passes. Click for more from FOX 17.

Watch List Zeeland West 44, East Grand Rapids 27 The Dux have won eight straight season openers and now have an open week before beginning play in what might be the toughest league in the state this season, the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green.

Remember this one Caledonia 41, Holt 14 The Rams are expected to be one of the Lansing area’s best this fall – which means this could turn out to be an even more impressive start for Caledonia.

More shoutouts Muskegon Mona Shores 56, Lowell 14 The Sailors opened their pursuit of a third-straight Division 2 championship with a new quarterback but same offensive output. Ravenna 21, Beal City 20 The Bulldogs held on as the Aggies scored 13 fourth-quarter points.

8-Player

HEADLINER Marion 42, Merrill 12 The Eagles quietly have strung together five winning seasons in a row and made an impression in their first game since last season’s Division 2 Semifinal loss to eventual champion Powers North Central. Merrill was one of the best 8-player Division 1 teams in its first season playing the format in 2020. Click for more from the Cadillac News.

Watch list Pickford 36, Gaylord St. Mary 6 One game is merely that, but if history holds this would seem to indicate Pickford is a team to watch again in Division 1.

Remember this one Genesee 56, Mayville 52 The Wolves ended last season with a 48-20 playoff-opening loss to Mayville.

More shoutouts Blanchard Montabella 54, Bellevue 18 The Mustangs made a late move to 8-player this offseason and are three students too large to qualify for the playoffs – but their 8P debut will be remembered regardless if they continue to rebound from last year’s 1-5 finish in 11-player. Rogers City 14, Brethren 8 The Hurons won five games total over their last two seasons of 11-player, but debuted in 8-player with a win over a solid Brethren program coming off a third-straight finish at .500 or better.

PHOTOS: (Top) Niles Brandywine’s Ivory McCullough works to break the grasp of Centreville’s Xander Frederick during Thursday’s win. (Middle) Plainwell won its 120th meeting with Otsego, 21-6. (Below) Alpena's Joseph Blewett (21) and Mason Mumford (15) aren't able to get to Marquette's Justin Jurmu in time as Jurmu pulls in a pass from quarterback Austin Ridl to score their team’s first touchdown Thursday. (Top photo by Michael Caterina/South Bend Tribune, middle by Gary Shook, and below by Cara Kamps.)