Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Lung Transplant Survivor Inspires, Teaches Through Football

By Doug Donnelly
Special for MHSAA.com

September 1, 2021

ADRIAN – As the final seconds ticked off the clock in the 2019 Division 8 Regional Football Final at Reading, Adrian Lenawee Christian assistant coach Jon Willett started looking for his wife. 

Reading would be going on to play the next week, while the LCS’s season was over. Willett desperately needed oxygen. He could barely breath.

Hillary Willett, Jon’s wife, pulled the car as close to the Reading field as she could, and Jon opened the door.

“I got in the car and sat down,” Willett said. “And I looked at her and I said, ‘I just coached my last game.’”

As miracles go, Willett was wrong. Less than two months after that football game that Willett thought was his last, he underwent a double lung transplant at the University of Michigan Hospital. He still doesn’t know how he survived so long, but is certain there was divine intervention. 

“I’ve always had a close relationship with Jesus Christ,” Willett said. “And I’ve always been passionate about football. I always thought that if I survived, I would use football as a tool to reach younger people. I’m doing that today.”

Willett helped coach the Cougars to last season’s 8-Player Division 1 championship and is back on the sidelines this season, coaching the Cougars JV team and continuing to serve as an assistant with the varsity.

He even gets in on some drills now and then, such as doing push-ups with the quarterbacks.

“Jon has been with me for seven or eight years,” LCS varsity head coach Bill Wilharms said. “He’s a great man and a great football coach. The kids love having him around, and he loves them. I love coaching with him, and he’s a big part of our coaching family.”

Willett grew up in Sand Creek, about 10 minutes south of Adrian in Lenawee County. He played on some outstanding Aggies football teams for Hall of Fame coach Ernie Ayers. Willett led the 1990 Aggies in rushing, finishing just shy of 1,000 yards his senior season.

He got into coaching when his sons, Noah and Isaiah, began playing flag football. 

“I coached them in flag football, then in Pop Warner,” Willett said. “I love coaching football. When Noah was in middle school I coached him one year, then became an assistant for the varsity.”

Adrian Lenawee Christian footballWilharms tabbed Willett to be the JV head coach, a position he’s held for the last couple of years. He also coaches varsity wide receivers and defensive backs and will assist the LCS scout team quarterbacks at practice. He jumps in whenever needed.

Sometimes, it’s as a motivational speaker.

“I share my testimony whenever possible,” Willett said. “I tell my players that life is short. You never know how long you are going to have. You truly don’t. You have to live your life to the fullest.”

Willett first was diagnosed with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis – chronic, progressive lung disease – in April 2017 when he visited the doctor due to a constant cough and shortness of breath. The prognosis was not good.

“The doctor said at that point I had 65-percent capacity of my lungs,” he said. “They gave me three to five years unless I could get a double lung transplant. They said that would be the only option and that there was no cure.”

Willett believed the doctors, of course, but admits he wasn’t the best patient. 

“I figured if I could make it 10 years, my kids would be out of school,” he said. 

The disease had other ideas. While he was put on oxygen due to shortness of breath, his LCS football players had no idea.

“I never did it in front of them,” he said. “I should have. I wasn’t a very good patient. I was wanting to be with the team. I wanted to coach.”

In July 2019, he noticed a big change. 

“My lung capacity had dropped,” he said.

He continued to coach. He had some doctors’ appointments here and there but remained coaching the entire season.  

“It was a mental thing,” he said. “I wanted to get through the season.”

He rode the bus to the LCS-Reading game. When the game was over, he told Wilharms that he had to go home.

“I told Coach Wilharms that I was just getting in the car with my wife,” he said. “She pulled the car up to the gate because it was so hard to walk. I couldn’t get air because of not having oxygen.”

When he told his wife that he thought he would never coach again, she said no.

“She looked at me and she said, ‘(You’ve coached your last game) with those lungs.’”

By Christmas of 2019, Willett had been in and out of the hospital on numerous occasions. He was on oxygen tanks around the clock. He went home at Christmas, believing it was his last.

“I said I want to go home. I think it’s my last Christmas. I wanted to be with my family,” he recalled.

When he returned to the hospital after Christmas, his son Noah sat in the backseat during the car ride changing out oxygen tanks every few minutes just to keep his father alive. Willett’s oxygen levels were dangerously low.

Adrian Lenawee Christian football“When I got to U-M, there was a whole team of people waiting for me. They worked on me and sent me up to ICU. It was bleak,” he said.

The LCS community sent out word via social media to pray for Coach Willett, his wife, two sons and two daughters, Emily and Abigail. Willett said those prayers were answered.

Willett was told by doctors he had to have a double lung transplant within 24 hours, or he would die. Seven hours and 13 minutes later, the doctor walked in, with tears in his eyes, and told the family they found a match.

Willett is feeling better now. In February of this year, about a month after Willett watched from the sidelines as LCS won the championship in Brighton, the medications he had been on took hold and he began to improve.

When the season started this summer, Willett was no doubt going to be part of the Cougars staff.

“Everything is very stable right now,” he said. “My lungs keep getting better. I can tell at football practice, walking from end zone to end zone, I’m feeling better. I’m building up. That exercise helps.”

Some day he plans on reaching out to the family of the person who donated lungs to him. For now, he’s grateful to be alive and thankful for every moment he gets to spend coaching football.

“I’m feeling great and loving the opportunity I have to keep coaching and be with the kids,” Willett said. “The story I get to share with my players is truly a miracle. God took me to the point where it was 100 percent out of my control.

“If I can use football as a tool to keep talking to the youth and help them become better men, I’m going to do that. Football is what drives me.”

Doug Donnelly has served as a sports and news reporter and city editor over 25 years, writing for the Daily Chief-Union in Upper Sandusky, Ohio from 1992-1995, the Monroe Evening News from 1995-2012 and the Adrian Daily Telegram since 2013. He's also written a book on high school basketball in Monroe County and compiles record books for various schools in southeast Michigan. E-mail him at [email protected] with story ideas for Jackson, Washtenaw, Hillsdale, Lenawee and Monroe counties.

PHOTOS: (Top) Lenawee Christian head varsity coach Bill Wilharms (holding football) gives assistant Jon Willett a hug after last season’s 8-Player Division 1 Final win. (Middle) Willett returned to the sideline a year after a double lung transplant. (Below) Willett serves as junior varsity head coach and varsity assistant. (Photos by Jeff Jameson/Lenawee Christian Schools.)