Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
1st & Goal: 2023 11-Player Semifinals Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
November 17, 2023
No flashy or fact-packed introduction is necessary this weekend to tie together the remaining 11-player football games across the state.
Saturday's winners advance to Ford Field, and that says it all.
See below for a glance at all 16 Semifinals. All kick off at 1 p.m. except for Menominee/North Muskegon, which begins at 3 p.m. Follow along in person or watch all of them on MHSAA.tv, and keep up with the scores as they come in on the Football Playoff Scoreboard.
Division 1
Davison (12-0) vs. Belleville (12-0) at Novi – WATCH
Belleville’s winning streak is up to 37 games, and the Tigers have won all three playoff games by at least 41 points. Junior quarterback Bryce Underwood is up to 2,967 yards and 37 touchdowns on 159-for-232 passing. Davison will try to limit Belleville after holding Rockford to 14 points last week in arguably its most impressive defensive performance. A running game led by junior AJ Hill (1,488 yards, 19 TDs rushing) could take some off some of the pressure.
Southfield Arts & Technology (11-1) vs. West Bloomfield (10-2) at Troy – WATCH
Southfield A&T gets a chance to avenge its lone loss, as West Bloomfield won their Week 8 meeting 31-20. Senior quarterback Isaiah Marshall has been one of the most dynamic playmakers in the state for multiple seasons. West Bloomfield avenged one of its two losses this season with last week’s 21-20 win over Clarkston and has one of the top pass combos in the state with senior quarterback Requez Nance (2,497 yards/21 TDs) and junior receiver Elisha Durham (1,010 yards, 10 TDs).
Division 2
East Lansing (10-2) vs. Muskegon (10-2) at Greenville – WATCH
East Lansing has won 10 straight games to reach its first Semifinal since 2007. A balanced offense is enjoying arguably its most impressive stretch, and a big drive is a running game led by juniors Jace Clarizio (1,209 yards, 9.0 per carry, 16 TDs) and Dwataye Sams Jr. (965 yards, 9.8 per carry, 13 TDs). Muskegon has run for 3,950 yards this season in making the Semifinals for the seventh time in eight seasons, with a dynamic group putting up similar numbers. Senior quarterback M’Khi Guy (1,636 yards/23 TDs) is averaging 10.9 yards per carry, senior running back Jakob Price (842/17) is averaging 8.2 and senior slot Destin Piggee (951/10) is averaging 14.9 yards per carry.
Waterford Mott (10-2) vs. Warren De La Salle Collegiate (10-2) at Troy Athens – WATCH
The two-time reigning champion Pilots graduated their offensive leader for those two title runs but are keyed by another talented dual-threat quarterback in junior Sante Gasperoni (903 yards/14 TDs rushing, 1,876 yards/20 TDs passing). De La Salle’s only losses were to Davison in the season opener and Ohio power Toledo Central Catholic. Mott is making its first trip to a Semifinal paced by another skilled signal-caller with massive numbers – senior Kalieb Osborne had run for 1,865 yards and 25 touchdowns and thrown for 3,532 yards and 35 scores.
Division 3
Zeeland West (9-3) vs. Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (11-1) at Holland West Ottawa – WATCH
Forest Hills Central is one more win from returning to Ford Field after finishing Division 2 runner-up a year ago, and senior quarterback Mason McDonald is a catalyst again after stepping into the lineup due to an injury for the latter part of last year’s run. He’s thrown for 1,398 yards and 18 touchdowns and run for 649 yards and nine scores. West’s first Semifinal trip since 2015 has been driven in part by another balanced rushing attack that’s piled up 3,258 yards with senior Rolando Robelin leading the way with 762 and 15 TDs on the ground.
Detroit Martin Luther King (7-5) vs. Mason (12-0) at Chelsea – WATCH
This is a rematch of Semifinals from the last two seasons, both won by King as the Crusaders went on to back-to-back Division 3 championships. Mason will try to take its turn this time with nearly the entire lineup back from last season including four-year running back AJ Martel, who has gained 1,293 yards (9.0 per carry) and 25 touchdowns this fall and is the program’s all-time leading rusher. King’s losses were to Division 1 Cass Tech twice and three out-of-state powers, and the defense can counter with a standout senior end in Marquise White, who has 12 sacks and 10 tackles for loss.
Division 4
Grand Rapids South Christian (9-3) vs. Portland (12-0) at Ada Forest Hills Eastern – WATCH
Reigning Division 4 champion South Christian is coming off a 55-35 win over Big Rapids and its highest scoring output since opening night, and senior receiver Jake Vermaas has followed up a monster Finals performance last year with a monster 2023 catching 79 passes for 1,485 yards and 19 touchdowns as junior Carson Vis has directed the attack. Portland’s task got taller when leading rusher Caden Thelen (1,496 yards/23 TDs rushing) was lost with an injury at the end of the Regional Final. But the Raiders have run for 3,323 yards total, and junior quarterback Dominic Novara has provided another threat throwing for 1,008 yards and 16 touchdowns – or a score on every third completion.
Goodrich (11-1) vs. Harper Woods (9-3) at Livonia Franklin – WATCH
Goodrich also is a game away from a Ford Field return after finishing Division 4 runner-up a year ago, and the Martians have already outscored last year’s team thanks in part to the powerful running of junior Chase Burnett (1,746 yards/23 TDs rushing), who has gained nearly two-thirds of the team’s yardage on the ground. By now, no one should be sleeping on Harper Woods despite its three losses – those defeats came to Division 1 Southfield A&T and Lake Orion and Division 2 Birmingham Groves, and wins over Clarkston and Roseville certainly were attention grabbers. Sophomore quarterback Nate Rocheleau has completed 71 percent of his passes for 1,836 yards and 23 scores.
Division 5
Frankenmuth (11-1) vs. Grand Rapids Catholic Central (11-1) at Ithaca – WATCH
These two met in the 2020 Division 5 Final and a 2021 Semifinal, and Frankenmuth then finished runner-up a year ago with GRCC losing to eventual champion Gladwin in a Semifinal on the other side of the bracket. The Cougars can count wins over South Christian, River Rouge and Grand Rapids West Catholic among their most impressive, with senior Kellen Russell-Dixon averaging 10.9 yards per carry for the season (with 1,560 yards/22 TDs rushing total). Frankenmuth counters with a defense that’s given up only 807 rushing yards despite facing Goodrich (see above) and a powerful attack from Kingsford among others. Senior quarterback Jack Rich has stepped in to lead the Eagles with 1,184 yards and 19 scores rushing while throwing for another eight TDs.
Flat Rock (9-3) vs. Corunna (12-0) at Ypsilanti Lincoln – WATCH
Flat Rock is playing in its first Semifinal since 1976, and Corunna its first since 1996. The Rams bounced back from a midseason 1-3 stretch to score a combined 201 points over their last four wins, which were all by 30 or more. Corunna has given up only 94 points all season – never more than 18 in a game – and only a combined 42 over three playoff wins despite playing undefeated opponents in two of them. The senior Bower twins are playing major roles; Wyatt, the quarterback, has thrown for 2,191 yards and 25 touchdowns and run for 943 and 15, respectively; while split end Tarick has caught 41 passes for 1,289 yards (30.2 per catch) and 18 scores.
Division 6
Reed City (9-3) vs. Kingsley (10-2) at Cadillac – WATCH
Reed City’s repeat run to the Semifinals has come after a 1-3 start – including a 46-12 season-opening loss to Kingsley. But the Coyotes have reached 40 points six times during their eight-game winning streak and have pounded defenses with senior running backs Max Hammond (1,343 yards/18 TDs rushing) and John Ondrus (1,365/13). Kingsley has stayed in stride, with its 583 points this season more than the Stags scored in any of their other three 10-win seasons over the last five years – and even more than they scored in going 12-1 in 2019. Senior Eli Graves has run for 1,654 yards and 20 scores, caught five touchdown passes and scored twice on kickoff returns.
Ovid-Elsie (8-4) vs. Almont (11-1) at Grand Blanc – WATCH
After stunning contender Constantine in last week’s Regional Final, Ovid-Elsie takes on another opponent that might be considered the team to beat. Almont’s only loss was Week 9 to Division 5 Ogemaw Heights, and the Raiders have impressed including edging another favorite in Warren Michigan Collegiate in the District Final. Junior Chase Battani leads the rushing attack with 1,047 yards and 15 touchdowns and also has 85 tackles with 11 tackles for loss at linebacker. Ovid-Elsie similarly has a balanced offensive attack, but junior quarterback Tryce Tokar helps make it so throwing for 1,224 yards and 18 scores and rushing for a team-high 814 yards and 13 TDs.
Division 7
Menominee (10-2) vs. North Muskegon (12-0) at Gaylord – WATCH
North Muskegon’s first Semifinal since 1986 has come off two wins by a combined four points, and the Norseman take on a Menominee team that’s had only one single-digit game – win or lose – in making its longest run since finishing Division 5 runner-up in 2016. These Maroons are more balanced than the run-heavy teams that many associate with the program, but they still dominate on the ground with senior Landan Bardowski leading a 3,200-yard rush attack with 1,343 and 25 touchdowns. North Muskegon’s rushing and passing yardage and touchdown totals are nearly identical, but junior quarterback James Young definitely pops off the page with 2,460 yards and 31 scores through the air.
Millington (12-0) vs. Jackson Lumen Christi (11-1) at Westland John Glenn – WATCH
The reigning champion Titans are a three-point Week 8 loss to Division 3 Gaylord from an undefeated season so far, and they’ve done it in part with one of their most impressive defenses in at least a decade giving up just 7.1 points per game. Millington’s defense has been similarly sturdy, giving up only nine per game during a run that’s included two one-point wins. Junior Dallas Walsh is among those hoping to break through for the Cardinals; he’s run for 1,153 yards and 16 touchdowns this fall.
Division 8
Beal City (11-1) vs. Ubly (12-0) at Mt. Morris – WATCH
This is Ubly’s fifth-straight Semifinal, and the only team to keep the Bearcats from Ford Field the two years they fell short was Beal City with a one-point win in the 2019 matchup and five-point victory in 2021. Ubly has run for more than 4,100 yards led by senior Canden Peruski, who is averaging 11.7 per carry for 1,485 total to go with 21 touchdowns on the ground – he’s one of five Ubly rushers with at least 10 rushing scores. Beal City is giving up only 8.6 points per game and has an offensive playmaker in senior Jamisen Latham, who has run for 827 yards and 10 scores and also caught 10 touchdown passes.
Riverview Gabriel Richard (8-4) vs. Ottawa Lake Whiteford (12-0) at Adrian College – WATCH
Reigning Division 8 champion Whiteford has won 26 straight games since falling in a 2021 Semifinal, and the Bobcats are doing it again this fall with a defense giving up nine points per game and with five players scoring between 8-17 touchdowns and freshman quarterback Tre Eitniear throwing for 949 yards and 14 scores. Gabriel Richard will attempt to transform its first Semifinal appearance into its first Ford Field trip with a similarly-balanced attack led by junior quarterback Nick Sobush (1,256 yards/13 TDs passing, 8 TDs rushing) and junior running back Joey Calhoun (858 yards/16 TDs rushing, 5 TDs receiving).
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PHOTO Ubly's Seth Maurer (30) takes on a pair of Ithaca defenders during last week's Regional Final win. (Click for more from High School Sports Scene.)