Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
'Game Changers' Making Major Strides to Revive Atherton Football
By
Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com
September 15, 2021
Terrieon Robertson had a choice to make this spring. The Burton Atherton senior could leave his school for an opportunity to play football elsewhere, or he could stay and risk the chance that Atherton’s low numbers would lead to a cancellation of his final season.
After meeting with new Atherton coach Randy Young, that decision was easy.
“I was planning on leaving toward the end of my junior year, because I didn’t know if football was going to be a thing,” said Robertson, who noted that he didn’t want to leave. “In my head I was like, ‘We’re not going to have enough kids.’ I was working out and getting better, and I planned on transferring. (Young) came in and he graduated from Atherton, he was like ‘Everything is going to be different and better, just trust me.’ I did, and I wouldn’t change a thing.”
Robertson was one of just four players who planned to play football when Young took over the program in June. That number doubled through the summer, and eventually the Wolverines were able to get to 11 players for their first game of the season against Kinde North Huron.
Now, after a 2-1 start, the locker room is overflowing.
“We’re actually out of helmets and uniforms for the kids,” Young said. “I can’t sustain any more new kids.”
Football success has been scarce at Atherton, with the program winning just two games over the previous four seasons. The program has one playoff appearance (2014) and seven winning seasons during the playoff era (since 1975). Young was part of one of those winning seasons during his junior year in 1987.
“I’ve forever followed Atherton," Young said. "Since I graduated, I’ve always kept up with them. It was disheartening to see my school falling by the wayside. My senior year, we were 2-7 and we lost our JV program. It kind of fell down from there.”
Despite that, Young jumped at the chance to take a job at his alma mater.
“The chance to go back to your high school and possibly change it around – I'm blessed to be back there,” he said. “It felt like with me and my staff, we were up for the task. I’ve worked with most everybody on my staff before. We mesh well. Even through the summer, ever since I left Bentley (as an assistant), we’ve been working toward something like this. We were confident in the work we were going to put in.”
Young’s excitement did not reflect the situation he was entering. As wins dried up and numbers dropped, Atherton moved to 8-player football in 2019, despite having more than 215 students enrolled and hence not being eligible for the postseason. (Only schools with 215 or fewer can qualify for the 8-player playoffs, and Atherton’s count is 254.) That year, the Wolverines were 1-8, and in 2020, they started 0-2 before forfeiting their final two games and ending the season early.
“Oh my goodness, the image has been terrible,” senior Tra’Jen Adams said. “I had a terrible image of it before I even went there. When people play Atherton, they knew it was going to be an easy win. Even before this season, there were so many jokes around Flint. Now, it’s quieted down a little bit, but it’s still there.”
Before changing minds in the area, Young and his players had to change minds in the school. That included Adams, a basketball player the Atherton staff recruited out of their own gym. Like many of the athletes in the school, Adams was also contacted by Robertson, who himself had turned into a recruiter.
“Every single kid that I knew wanted to play or looked like they could play, I contacted them,” Robertson said. “Probably 80 percent of kids on the team right now got a text from me to come out for the team. Some people were like, ‘OK, we’re on the way.’ Most kids didn’t even know football was happening. Some kids were still against Atherton saying that Atherton isn’t good and we shouldn’t play. Once we won the first game, more kids came out. We won the second game, and more kids came out.”
The Wolverines lost their opener against North Huron but impressed their coach and opened some eyes by playing tough against the returning Division 2 semifinalist in the 30-20 defeat.
Atherton has rolled in its past two games, defeating International Academy of Flint 44-18 and New Haven Merritt Academy 49-14. As the team racks up wins, the players are putting up huge numbers.
Junior receiver and running back Romiel Clausell is averaging 16.8 yards per touch (386 yards on the ground, 134 receiving) and has seven touchdowns. Robertson has hauled in 12 catches for 143 yards and three touchdowns, and sophomore quarterback Demontrey Davis is 18 of 27 passing for 297 yards and six touchdowns, and has rushed for 215 yards and four scores.
Defensively, the Wolverines are causing plenty of havoc, led by Adams’ seven tackles for loss and four sacks. Clausell (six TFL) and Te’Shawn Stevenson (five TFL) have chipped in as well.
“Every day (they surprise me),” Young said. “Not because they’re not talented, but they’ve grown up. They’ve grown up so much before our eyes. It’s almost like having a child and having them outdo what your expectations for them are. I’m surprised, and every day there’s something new that brings a smile to my face.”
They’re also surprising their classmates and creating an excitement around the program that hasn’t been present for a long time.
“People were really doubting us at first all over social media,” Clausell said. “After our first three games, I haven’t heard anybody talk since. We love to see it, and we hope we can continue it.”
With no postseason available to them, the Wolverines have different goals than most. They play in the North Central Thumb League Stars division, so a league title is a possibility. Of course, to do that, they would need to overcome 8-player powerhouses Morrice and Deckerville, who have each won a Finals title.
But games against that type of competition do give Atherton a chance to prove how far they’ve come.
“We have a lot to prove,” Young said. “We want to prove that we’re worthy of being in a playoff situation. We want to show everybody that we’re not the Atherton you think we are. We’re going to play with something to prove.”
A longterm goal is to get the program back into 11-player football and postseason eligible. Young said that’s probably a couple years away, but with the early success and growth in participation among his underclassmen, that feels attainable.
While Robertson and his classmates won’t be around to experience that, they’ll certainly be remembered as the ones who made it happen.
“Me knowing that I’m a part of that – in 20 years when they say, ‘In 2021, that class, they were the game-changers,” Robertson said. “I’ll keep it as an achievement in my life.”
Paul Costanzo served as a sportswriter at The Port Huron Times Herald from 2006-15, including three years as lead sportswriter, and prior to that as sports editor at the Hillsdale Daily News from 2005-06. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Saginaw, Bay, Arenac, Midland and Gladwin counties.
PHOTOS: (Top) Atherton quarterback Demontrey Davis readies for the snap during this season’s win over New Haven Merritt Academy. (Middle) Davis makes a move as a defender approaches. (Below) Terrieon Robertson (6) and Romiel Clausell (10) enjoy a celebratory shoulder bump. (Photos by Mandi Withey.)