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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Grand Blanc/Davison football

1st & Goal: 2021 Week 4 in Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 20, 2021

With every varsity team getting at most nine regular-season games, every week of the high school football season has the potential to shift landscapes locally and sometimes statewide.

MI Student AidWeek 4 saw its share of movement with league races taking some early shape and playoff talk already beginning as programs work to get a read on how their early work fits into the now fully-implemented “enhanced strength-of-schedule” system.

We’ll discuss that more as we preview our Week 5 top matchups – below take a look at many of the results from this weekend that have the state talking as we approach the midway point.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Grand Blanc 43, Davison 7 The Bobcats broke free after three single-score wins over strong opponents with a victory that may prove the most memorable of all this regular season, as they ended Davison’s four-game winning streak in this rivalry. Grand Blanc (4-0) joined the Cardinals in the Saginaw Valley League Red in 2018 and had lost the last three league meetings against them by an average of 36 points per defeat. Davison (1-3), last season’s Division 1 runner-up, also has played one of the state’s toughest opening slates. Click for more from the Flint Journal.

Watch list Freeland 43, Essexville Garber 14 The Dukes’ defense has been a strong point the last two seasons and first three games of this one as they’d given up 22 points total during a 3-0 start. But Freeland’s offense after four games – and four wins – is more than halfway to equaling last season’s scoring across 11 games.

Remember this one Ubly 50, Harbor Beach 33 The Pirates (2-2) had won five of the last six in this series including twice during the playoffs and 16-14 to open the 2020 regular season. But Ubly (4-0) broke 50 points for the second straight week and is one of two teams sitting atop the Greater Thumb Conference East.

More shoutouts Millington 21, Standish-Sterling 8 The Cardinals (4-0) handed Standish-Sterling (3-1) its first defeat and can become the only undefeated team left in Tri-Valley Conference West I play when they take on Carrollton this week. Montrose 35, Chesaning 0 The Rams (3-1) are a one-point loss from a perfect start and ended Chesaning’s with their second shutout of the season.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Warren De La Salle Collegiate 21, Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice 16 The reigning Division 2 runner-up Pilots (3-0) scored all of their points during a mid-first half surge and held the Warriors’ offense scoreless during the second (two points came on a safety) to take an important first step in the Detroit Catholic League Central race. Brother Rice (3-1) hadn’t given up a point since the season opener and had defeated De La Salle the last two seasons. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press.

Watch list Macomb Dakota 27, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 23 With this one of the state’s best rivalries, and both coming off close Week 3 wins, this shouldn’t have been entirely stunning. But with the Big Reds 3-0 coming in, it still could represent a nice turning point for the Cougars (2-2) – and a possible reset on the Macomb Area Conference Red race with undefeated Romeo having defeated Dakota and seeing Chippewa Valley next.

Remember this one Armada 24, Richmond 10 Four teams have won at least one Blue Water Area Conference championship over the last five seasons, and Armada (4-0) is making a strong bid to be the fifth in six years after adding a nice win over the annually-contending Blue Devils (3-1) to their six-point victory over reigning league champ North Branch in Week 3.

More shoutouts Oak Park 30, North Farmington 24 The Knights’ first four opponents are a combined 14-2, and Oak Park (1-3) fell twice by five or fewer points during the first two weeks before getting on the better side of a close one in handing North Farmington (3-1) its first defeat. South Lyon 31, Detroit Country Day 7 The Lions are 4-0 to start for the third time in four seasons and after scoring the most points reigning Division 4 champion Country Day has given up since it also appeared in the 2019 Division 4 title game.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Haslett 21, Mason 8 After opening with an eight-point loss to Jackson, Haslett (3-1) has won three straight – eclipsing its win totals of the last two seasons – to pull into first place alone in the Capital Area Activities Conference Red. The Vikings led 21-0 into the fourth quarter and all but stopped an offense that was averaging 35 points per game entering the weekend. Reigning league champ Mason (2-2) had opened the league schedule in Week 3 with a win over Williamston and joined the Hornets among four teams now a game back in the standings. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal

Watch list Mount Pleasant 33, Midland Dow 10 The Oilers (4-0) had opened with three wins over opponents with a combined one victory now through Week 4, but beating Dow (2-2) solidly reinforced Mount Pleasant’s playoff-point status as the top-ranked team in Division 3.

Remember this one East Lansing 20, Portage Central 15 Mason Woods’ 63-yard touchdown catch from Brevin Jackson with 2:21 to play helped the Trojans (2-2) get back to .500 after a start against opponents a combined 11-5 so far.

More shoutouts Beal City 48, Lake City 8 The Aggies (3-1) are a one-point Week 1 loss from a perfect start and will play Evart this week with the Highland Conference title potentially on the line after shutting down the Trojans (3-1). Stockbridge 68, Pontiac 40 Jeremy Pilch scored nine touchdowns – tying for fourth-most in MHSAA history – and a total of 64 points, which is tied for third-most in that category.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Traverse City Central 42, Traverse City West 14 The Trojans extended their winning streak against the rival Titans to three and moved into first place alone in a Big North Conference that features four of six teams at 3-1 overall – including both Central and West. The Trojans ran out to a quick lead this time and then ran away during a second-half surge. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Watch list Big Rapids 25, Central Montcalm 21 After opening with a loss to Coopersville, Big Rapids has won three straight to tie for the early lead in the Central State Activities Association Gold – while handing Central Montcalm (3-1) its lone defeat.

Remember this one Mancelona 66, Johannesburg-Lewiston 42 While the Cardinals (0-4) are admittedly off to a rare slow start, Mancelona (4-0) brought a high-scoring end to a seven-game losing streak against them.

More shoutouts Gaylord 10, Petoskey 7 The Blue Devils (2-2) avenged last season’s 22-14 loss, in the process handing the Northmen (3-1) their lone defeat. Frankfort 22, Oscoda 14 Playing a rare back-to-back series, the Panthers (3-1) finished a two-week sweep of the Owls (1-2), this one ending a bit closer than the Week 3 32-16 win.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Addison 36, Michigan Center 35 These Cascades Conference contenders never separated from each other by more than seven points, with Addison adding the winning score with 3:12 to play. While the Panthers (4-0) gave up as many points as they had over their first three games, they did hold Michigan Center (3-1) to a season low while scoring the first points the Cardinals had given up this fall. Addison’s Week 8 opponent is the only other team that has yet to lose a Cascades game. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen Patriot.

Watch list Union City 26, Reading 20 (OT) The Chargers (2-2) bounced right back from a Week 3 loss to Jonesville, handing Reading (3-1) only its second Big 8 Conference loss over the last five seasons.

Remember this one Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 21, Milan 15 The Big Reds (3-1) had won three straight of St. Mary (although the two Huron League rivals didn’t play each other last season). But the Falcons ended that streak and put themselves in position to take a commanding advantage in the league title race this week against reigning champ Riverview.

More shoutouts Ida 26, Clinton 20 The Bluestreaks (3-1) are in position to contend for the Lenawee County Athletic Association title after edging the reigning Division 6 runner-up and with early league co-leader Hudson next up. Ann Arbor Huron 31, Temperance Bedford 30 The River Rats (3-1) equaled last season’s win total and set themselves up for their best finish in more than a decade by holding off a late Bedford comeback attempt.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Portage Northern 35, Stevensville Lakeshore 28 Coming off a 2020 District Final run, Portage Northern (1-3)  didn’t find its footing early this fall against three opponents who have made some early noise in the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference. But the Huskies may have turned the corner in a big way handing Lakeshore (3-1) its first loss – while also running their winning streak over the Lancers to four as well. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Watch list Lawton 52, Allegan 7 The Blue Devils (4-0)  gave up their first points of the season and continued their streak of breaking 50 points every game this fall.

Remember this one Battle Creek Lakeview 31, Battle Creek Central 18 The Spartans (3-1) extended their winning streak in this rivalry series to three, bouncing back from a Week 3 loss to River Rouge to keep pace tied atop the SMAC.

More shoutouts Parchment 50, Saugatuck 43 Since opening with a loss to Lawton the Panthers (3-1) have equaled last season’s win total, with their next victory guaranteeing their best record since 2017. Plainwell 33, Richland Gull Lake 14 Much of the attention in the Wolverine Conference is being paid to powerful Edwardsburg, but Plainwell (4-0) will roll into this week’s matchup with the Eddies with its best start since 2013.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Houghton 21, Bark River-Harris 20 The Gremlins (3-1) are on a roll since falling to Ishpeming Westwood in their season opener, with this win giving them one more than either last season or 2019. Similar to last season, this came down to the final minutes – a year ago Houghton won 3-0 on a fourth-quarter field goal, and this time the go-ahead points against the Broncos (3-1) came on late touchdown catch. Click for more from the Houghton Daily Mining Gazette.

Watch list Marquette 55, Kingsford 34 Halfway through the Greater Northern Conference schedule, Marquette (3-1) has two 50-point scoring performances and two double-digit wins – this one handing Kingsford (3-1) its first loss.

Remember this one Gladstone 30, Escanaba 15 The Braves (2-2) came back from a one-point loss to Menominee in Week 3 to defeat Escanaba (1-3) for the first time since 2010.

More shoutouts Sault Ste. Marie 49, Cheboygan 21 The Blue Devils (3-1) rebounded from their first loss with their highest points total of the season. Ishpeming Westwood 42, Ishpeming 0 The Patriots (3-1) posted a second-straight shutout of the rival Hematites (1-2), also in bouncing back from a Week 3 defeat.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Montague 33, Muskegon Oakridge 7 The Wildcats have outscored their three West Michigan Conference opponents by a combined 103-7 and have themselves in position to repeat as league champions with a second-straight big win over the rival Eagles (3-1). Two of Montague’s final three league foes are also 3-1 overall, but the Wildcats have at least a game on both in the league standings. Click for more from FOX 17.

Watch list Muskegon Heights Academy 34, Manistee 28 The Tigers didn’t play last season and before that had lost 21 of their last 22. But they’re off to a 4-0 start and have guaranteed their best finish since at least 2011.

Remember this one Rockford 53, Grandville 46 (2OT) Pay little attention to Grandville’s 1-3 record – the Bulldogs have played two of the three early frontrunners in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red. This matchup is almost always memorable, and Rockford (4-0) made it six wins over their last eight meetings including three of those decided by one score.

More shoutouts Muskegon Mona Shores 47, Zeeland West 12 Over the last two weeks Muskegon High and then Mona Shores (3-1) have whittled the O-K Green race down a bit with back-to-back wins over West (1-2), and the Sailors get another contender in Zeeland East next. Byron Center 28, East Grand Rapids 20 The Bulldogs (4-0) avenged last season’s 12-8 Week 9 loss to the Pioneers (1-3) that cost them an outright O-K White championship.

8-Player

HEADLINER Bridgman 45, Mendon 0 The Bees (4-0) are now 19-2 since moving to 8-player in 2019, but this might be their most notable win since making the switch. Mendon (3-1) had entered averaging 63 points per game, but Bridgman earned its second-straight shutout of the fall while seeing its scoring average fall to only 53 points per contest. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.

Watch list Morrice 59, Lawrence 6 The Orioles (4-0) appear to be building toward another special season now having scored at least 58 points in every game and giving up no more than six in any of them – and the Tigers (3-1) had scored 60+ the previous two weeks. Circle Morrice’s Week 9 matchup with Deckerville as potentially the biggest 8-player game of the regular season.

Remember this one Marion 44, Mesick 29 If Marion (4-0) eventually wins the West Michigan D League title, this could be the decider as it sent 2019 champion Mesick into second place and one game back. (No league title was awarded in 2020.)

More shoutouts Adrian Lenawee Christian 56, Athens 0 The Cougars moved to 15-0 since moving to 8-player last season, this time handing Athens (3-1) its lone defeat. Eau Claire 30, Wyoming Tri-unity Christian 26 The Beavers (2-2) have set themselves up to make a run at their best record in at least seven years, especially notable coming back from a stretch that saw them win only two games total from 2015-19.

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PHOTO: A swarm of Grand Blanc defenders bring a Davison ball carrier to the ground Friday. (Photo by Terry Lyons.)