Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
1st & Goal: 2021 Week 6 in Review
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
October 4, 2021
As we get deeper into the regular season, we expect to see league championship races draw to a close and the best of the best locally separate from the rest.
Week 6 saw plenty of contenders begin pulling away and toward conference titles – but also a good share of packs grow as we head into the final three weeks before playoff selection.
We highlight many of both in this week’s review:
Bay & Thumb
HEADLINER Goodrich 48, Ortonville Brandon 21 The Martians (5-1) came way back to get past Brandon and secure a share of the Flint Metro League Stars championship. Goodrich scored 38 unanswered second-half points after Brandon (5-1) scored the first touchdown of the third quarter to take a 21-10 lead. Jace Simerson was among standouts with 187 yards and three touchdowns rushing, with two of those scores during the third quarter 28-7 blast. Click for more from WJRT.
Watch list Bad Axe 37, Reese 7 The Hatchets (6-0) won a matchup of undefeated Greater Thumb Conference West contenders to set up a potential Week 8 league title decider with Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker, which also is unbeaten in league play. Laker must get by Reese (5-1) this week, however, and Bad Axe faces Vassar with an opportunity to set up a winner-take-all showdown.
Remember this one Flint Kearsley 40, Fenton 38 The Hornets (3-3) would need three results to go their way to claim a share of the Metro League Stripes title this week. But their first win over Fenton in 14 tries as members of the league together also put the Tigers (3-3) in a must-win situation if they hope to clinch a share and run their league title streak to 11.
More shoutouts Flint Hamady 52, Burton Bendle 20 Since scoring seven points total over back-to-back losses to begin the season, Hamady (4-2) has won all four of its Genesee Area Conference games to clinch a share of the league title, scoring 52 or more points in three of those victories. Bay City Western 54, Midland 8 The Warriors (5-1) have guaranteed their best overall finish since 2012 with their first win over Midland since 2008 – and this one also kept Western in the Saginaw Valley League Blue title conversation with leader Mount Pleasant coming up in two weeks.
Greater Detroit
HEADLINER West Bloomfield 34, Clarkston 27 (OT) The Lakers (5-1) emerged with a share of the Oakland Activities Association Red championship, also avenging last season’s 24-21 loss to the Wolves (5-1) that ended up deciding the 2020 league title. West Bloomfield standout Dillon Tatum made multiple plays at the end with all of that on the line, scoring in overtime and intercepting a Clarkston pass in the end zone to end the game on the ensuing possession. Click for more from the Oakland Press.
Here's the full highlights of the West Bloomfield (@WbLakers) vs. Clarkston football game from Friday night. @PrimeTimeDill @coach_grice #StateChamps X @DMC_Rehab pic.twitter.com/ZQxUWfJjyS
— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsmich) October 4, 2021
Watch list Sterling Heights Stevenson 36, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 32 After sharing the league title last season, Stevenson (5-1) has emerged from a crowded group of state-renowned contenders again, clinching a share of the Macomb Area Conference Red title with this win over the Big Reds (4-2). Stevenson can win the league outright this week against Romeo.
Remember this one Warren De La Salle Collegiate 17, Detroit Catholic Central 7 The Detroit Catholic League Central title belongs to the Pilots (5-0), who avenged last season’s 14-10 loss to the Shamrocks (4-2) and also earned a 5-4 advantage against DCC over the rivalry’s last nine games.
More shoutouts Riverview 42, Milan 29 The Pirates (6-0) need one more Huron League win over the next two games to repeat as champions and all but ended title aspirations for the Big Reds (4-2). Rochester Adams 28, North Farmington 21 (OT) The Highlanders (6-0) put together a string of big plays late to emerge with a share of the OAA White championship. Trailing midway through the fourth quarter, Adams forced a turnover deep in North Farmington territory, scored on the next possession to tie the game, then scored the first points of overtime and stopped the Raiders (3-3) on their possession to finish the job.
Mid-Michigan
HEADLINER Lansing Catholic 31, Portland 29 The Cougars (6-0) took a two-score lead into the fourth quarter, but needed 33-yard field goal by Jonah Richards on the game’s final play to push past the Raiders (5-1) and clinch a share of the Capital Area Activities Conference White championship. Portland had won 33 straight league games dating to 2014. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Watch list Williamston 21, Haslett 14 Three teams are tied atop the CAAC Red standings with a league game to play after Williamston (4-2) stopped Haslett’s attempt to clinch a share of the championship. Both the Vikings and Mason are also 4-2 overall and 3-1 in league play, and all three play opponents this week with 1-3 conference records.
Remember this one New Lothrop 66, Ovid-Elsie 24 The Mid-Michigan Activities Conference is back to a four-team league title race with these two and Durand all 4-1 and Montrose 3-1 with two MMAC games to play. New Lothrop (4-2) sees Durand this week, while Ovid-Elsie (4-2) finishes the conference slate with two opponents that are a combined 2-7 in league play.
More shoutouts Hartland 29, Howell 7 This finish along with Canton’s win over Brighton also created a three-team tie atop the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West standings between the Eagles (5-1), Highlanders (5-1) and Chiefs. Howell must still see Brighton, and Hartland takes on Canton in Week 8. Pewamo-Westphalia 26, Olivet 14 The Pirates (6-0) appear well on their way to another Central Michigan Athletic Conference championship and got their toughest test of the season from the Eagles (4-2), who will face Lakewood this week for the outright Greater Lansing Activities Conference title.
Northern Lower Peninsula
HEADLINER Traverse City Central 24, Cadillac 0 The Trojans (5-1) put together their second-straight shutout to claim a share of the Big North Conference championship, and they can finish a third-straight outright league title run this week against one-win Alpena. Cadillac (4-2) did hold Central to its season low in points, but the Trojans took a 21-0 lead into halftime in extending their BNC winning streak to 18 with that one league game left before moving into the Saginaw Valley League for football in 2022. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Watch list Charlevoix 14, East Jordan 6 The Rayders (5-1) will need help to end up with a title share in the Northern Michigan Football Conference Leaders division, but handing a defeat to Legacy co-leader East Jordan (4-2) provided a nice playoff points bonus boost.
Remember this one Traverse City West 22, Petoskey 16 As West (5-1) also prepares to leave for the SVL, Petoskey in 2015 was the only team other than Central to defeat the Titans over the last seven seasons. Three of the last six meetings since were decided by one score.
More shoutouts Grayling 36, Sault Ste. Marie 32 With Legends contenders Kingsley and Traverse City St. Francis behind them, Grayling (4-2) has an opportunity to build some serious momentum heading into a playoff appearance – and defeating Sault Ste. Marie (4-2) was a great start. Boyne City 48, Kalkaska 16 The Ramblers (5-1) face Mancelona this week with a share of the Leaders title on the line, and they enjoyed a nice bounce-back after suffering their lone loss in Week 5.
Southeast & Border
HEADLINER Jonesville 34, Reading 8 The Comets (6-0) clinched a share of a Big 8 Conference repeat championship with another strong defensive performance, making it five games of holding opponents to eight or fewer points while lowering their average to 6.8 points allowed per game. This time they stopped a Reading offense averaging 37 points per game. The Rangers (4-2) fell into a tie for third place, and Jonesville needs to defeat winless Quincy this week to claim the league title outright. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen Patriot.
Watch list Ann Arbor Huron 28, Dexter 21 The River Rats (5-1) have guaranteed their best finish since 2009, and one more win will take that back to tying their best since 2002. Huron surely will be cheering now for Dexter (4-2), which will play Southeastern Conference Red leader Saline in Week 8 with a chance to shake up the standings.
Remember this one Chelsea 49, Ypsilanti Community 13 The Bulldogs (6-0) clinched their third-straight SEC White championship and ran their regular-season winning streak to 21.
More shoutouts Parma Western 13, Coldwater 7 Combined with Jackson Lumen Christi’s loss this weekend (see below), the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference race has a ton of possible conclusions – and Western (4-2) could be in the mix at the end. Napoleon 15, Grass Lake 0 The Pirates (5-1) kept alive a possible winner-take-all Cascades Conference title matchup in Week 8 against Addison, although they still must get past Michigan Center this week. Regardless, this one avenged a 39-0 loss to Grass Lake from last season.
Southwest Corridor
HEADLINER Portage Central 36, St. Joseph 30 (OT) The Mustangs (4-2) also made a series of unforgettable plays late to create a three-team tie atop the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference. Aaron Pollack’s 30-yard field goal tied the score at 30-30 with 16 seconds left in regulation, the defense stopped the Bears (5-1) to start overtime and Thomas Layne scored the winning points on the ensuing possession. Click for more from WWMT.
Watch list Battle Creek Harper Creek 33, Jackson Lumen Christi 14 This one looked a little intriguing heading into the weekend. But many more eyes will be turned toward Harper Creek (5-1) and the I8AC over the next two weeks as this turned the title race into at least a three-teamer with Hastings also tied with these two for first.
Remember this one Centreville 28, Cassopolis 0 A third shutout this season gave Centreville a share of its second-straight Southwest 10 Conference championship. The Bulldogs can clinch it outright this week against Comstock, while Cassopolis (4-2) and White Pigeon remain a game back and face each other.
More shoutouts Edwardsburg 57, Paw Paw 14 For the third-straight week Edwardsburg (6-0) defeated another top-four team in the Wolverine Conference, with only the bottom three teams in the league standings left as the Eddies play for a fourth-straight undefeated regular season. Lawton 69, Montrose 40 A late add to the schedule became one for the record books – literally – as they combined to score 109 points. Lawton (6-0) entered as No. 5 in Division 7, and Montrose (4-2) was tied for the No. 13 spot.
Upper Peninsula
HEADLINER Marquette 40, Clare 39 The Pioneers (4-2) scored first and led until Marquette went ahead for good with 7:40 to play. Seven of nine teams on Marquette’s schedule this season are .500 or better after Week 6, and this one provided another playoff points bonus boost. Marquette returns to Great Northern Conference play this week and can clinch the league title outright against Menominee, while Clare will face Gladwin for first in the Jack Pine Conference. Click for more from the Marquette Mining Journal.
Watch list Calumet 21, Iron Mountain 6 Despite beginning the season 0-2, Calumet (4-2) has surged and sits in the middle of the title hunt in a Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper that still has all seven teams at .500 or better. The Copper Kings can claim a share by winning out.
Remember this one Menominee 46, Escanaba 20 The Maroons (4-2) set themselves up for that upcoming GNC clash referenced above, as they defeated Escanaba for the first time on the field since 2016.
More shoutouts Ishpeming Westwood 36, Hancock 6 The Patriots (5-1) remain in control of their West-PAC Copper destiny as a Week 9 matchup with Negaunee looks like it could decide at least one team that shares the league title. Negaunee 42, L'Anse 0 The Miners (5-1) held up their end of creating that season-finale showdown with their second-straight shutout and third this season.
West Michigan
HEADLINER Comstock Park 35, Belding 34 (OT) Comstock Park came back from a double-digit deficit and held on through overtime to hold onto a slim lead in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Silver. The Panthers (6-0) remain a game up on Hopkins and Sparta but have defeated both. Click for more from FOX 17.
Watch list Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 35, Grand Rapids Christian 28 (OT) The Rangers (5-1) are a four-point Week 2 loss to Grand Blanc from a perfect record, and they’re setting themselves up well to face Byron Center in Week 8 to decide the O-K White title after those two shared it last season. This win sent Christian out of a first-place tie and into third.
Remember this one Muskegon Catholic Central 52, Muskegon Heights Academy 20 The Crusaders (5-1) clinched a share of the Lakes 8 Activities Conference championship, their second straight, and will attempt to finish it outright this week against Manistee.
More shoutouts Grand Rapids West Catholic 28, Coopersville 24 Week 6 promised to bring clarity to the O-K Blue race, and West Catholic (6-0) is one of two teams still tied for first after also coming back from a double-digit deficit against the Broncos (5-1). Hudsonville Unity Christian 54, Spring Lake 21 Also in the Blue, Unity Christian (6-0) held onto the other share of first place by handing Spring Lake (5-1) its first loss. Unity and West Catholic face each other this week.
8-Player
HEADLINER Portland St. Patrick 21, Vestaburg 20 The Shamrocks (6-0) took a 13-0 lead into halftime but had to hold off a Vestaburg comeback on the way to earning a share of the Central Michigan 8-Man Football Conference title. Both defenses shined; St. Patrick had averaged 50 points per game entering the weekend, and the Wolverines (5-1) had averaged just more than 60. Click for more from the Greenville Daily News.
Watch list Pellston 34, Gaylord St. Mary 8 The Hornets (6-0) may have made the Ski Valley Conference race a two-team chase by handing St. Mary (4-2) its first league loss. Pellston next faces the other team without a Ski Valley defeat, Indian River Inland Lakes.
Remember this one Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 44, Peck 36 The Irish (4-2) need help to earn a title share in the North Central Thumb League Stripes, but they gave some assistance to leader Kinde North Huron by sending Peck (5-1) out of a first-place tie.
More shoutouts Adrian Lenawee Christian 28, Climax-Scotts 12 The Cougars (6-0) navigated their closest game in two seasons of 8-player to take over first alone in the Southern Central Athletic Association A. Au Gres-Sims 58, Hale 50 The Wolverines (6-0) have scored 48 or more points every game this season, but survived a big offensive performance from Hale to remain in first alone in the North Star League.
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PHOTOS (Top) West Bloomfield’s Dillon Tatum (5) sprints past a pair of Clarkston defenders during Friday’s win. (Middle) Lansing Catholic’s Rory Durr (8) works to get upfield against Portland. (Top photo courtesy of C&G Newspapers; middle photo by High School Sports Scene.)