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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Muskegon/Mona Shores football

1st & Goal: 2021 Week 7 in Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 11, 2021

One result we're watching closely with the switch to a new playoff selection format for 11-player football – with no six-wins-and-in – is that every game feels like it matters more.

MI Student Aid

It could be a lot, or just a little as teams must push all the way through Week 9 to solidify their spots in the playoff field.

We’ll start understanding that much more over these final few weeks as teams hope their strength of schedule helps boost their playoff hopes. And there were plenty of results from Week 7 that likely will impact how 256 11-player and 32 8-player teams reach the playoffs Oct. 24.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Port Huron 14, Port Huron Northern 7 The Big Reds (6-1) finished a repeat run in the Macomb Area Conference Blue with this winner-take-all victory over the rival Huskies (6-1), extending their streak against Northern to three straight victories. Port Huron took a 14-0 lead into the break and finished with its fewest points given up in a game this season. Click for more from the Port Huron Times-Herald.

Watch list Lake Fenton 14, Goodrich 12 The Blue Devils (6-1) ended a three-game losing streak to the Martians (5-2) to create a shared Flint Metro League Stars championship between the two. Goodrich scored late, but Lake Fenton stopped the two-point conversion try to hold onto the lead.

Remember this one Gladwin 48, Clare 42 The Flying G’s (7-0) have earned a share of their first Jack Pine Conference championship since 2002, sending Clare (4-3) into second place, and can clinch their first outright JPC title this week against Beaverton.

More shoutouts Reese 27, Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 18 By way of this win, Bad Axe earned a share of the Greater Thumb Conference West title. Laker (5-2) still can make the league end with a three-way championship, adding Reese (6-1) back into the mix, if it defeats the Hatchets this week. Swartz Creek 35, Flushing 28 This combined with Fenton’s 36-34 win over Linden created a shared Metro League Stripes championship between the Dragons and Tigers, both 4-3 overall.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Romeo 7, Sterling Heights Stevenson 0 A stingy Romeo defense put together its best performance of the season when it counted most, earning its second shutout of the fall to create a shared MAC Red championship with the Titans (5-2). Joey Kostrubiec’s fourth-quarter scoring run provided the Bulldogs (6-1) with their winning margin. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press.

Watch list Dearborn Fordson 38, Livonia Churchill 33 Alex Osman’s five first-half touchdown passes helped Fordson reset the Kensington Lakes Activities Association East title race. Fordson, Churchill and Belleville all are 5-1 in league play and 6-1 overall heading into this week’s division finales.

Remember this one Madison Heights Bishop Foley 51, Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard 20 The Ventures (6-1) scored their season high in clinching the Detroit Catholic League Intersectional #1 championship after finishing second in the league a year ago.

More shoutouts Harper Woods Chandler Park 18, Warren Michigan Collegiate 16 The Eagles (5-2) came back from a two-point halftime deficit to clinch the Charter School Conference East title against second-place Michigan Collegiate (4-3). Detroit Pershing 22, Detroit Osborn 0 The Doughboys (5-2) posted their third shutout in Detroit Public School League Division 2 play to earn a spot in this week’s Gold championship game, while sending Osborn to 4-3.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Breckenridge 12, Carson City-Crystal 0 The winner-take-all Mid-State Activities Conference championship matchup went to the Huskies, as they posted their second-straight shutout to lock up their sixth-straight league title. Breckenridge (5-2) is 29-0 in league play since joining the MSAC in 2016, and Carson City-Crystal (6-1) has finished league runner-up three of the last four seasons. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun.

Watch list New Lothrop 33, Durand 20 The Mid-Michigan Activities Conference title race has worked itself down to three teams as the Hornets handed Durand (5-2) its second league loss. The Hornets (5-2) and Ovid-Elsie are tied for first at 5-1 in league play with a game to go, and Montrose figures in too at 4-1 since one of its league games was canceled.

Remember this one Olivet 37, Lake Odessa Lakewood 0 The Eagles (5-2) ran their Great Lakes Activities Conference winning streak to 23 games and championship streak to five seasons since last losing a league game and title, to Lakewood (4-3), in 2016.

More shoutouts Holt 26, East Lansing 21 The Rams (5-2) got some serious playoff-point bounce from defeating East Lansing (4-3) as they look to stick in the Division 1 field. Mason 24, Fowlerville 6 The Bulldogs (5-2) finished with a share of a third-straight Capital Area Activities Conference Red title, with Haslett and Williamston also earning pieces of the championship with wins this weekend.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Boyne City 50, Mancelona 18 The Ramblers clinched a share of the Northern Michigan Football Conference Leaders championship in what was a showdown for the top spot in the league. Boyne City (6-1) can claim the title outright this week against Elk Rapids, while Mancelona (5-1) still can guarantee its winningest season since 2014 with a victory this week against Charlevoix or Week 9 against Maple City Glen Lake. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Watch list Traverse City Central 56, Alpena 7 After opening this season with a loss to DeWitt at Michigan Stadium, Central (6-1) has won all of its games by at least 24 points and finished a third-straight perfect run through the Big North Conference.

Remember this one Cadillac 35, Petoskey 0 The Vikings (5-2) are up to a comfortable 10th in Division 4, while Petoskey (3-4) is sitting just outside the Division 3 playoff field at No. 34 after this defeat.

More shoutouts Traverse City St. Francis 42, Sault Ste. Marie 28 The Gladiators (7-0) are up to No. 3 in Division 7 and remain set up for a winner-take-all NMFC Legends meeting with Kingsley in two weeks. Charlevoix 32, Kalkaska 30 The Rayders (6-1) narrowly eluded an upset, but Kalkaska (1-6) has made strides – the Blazers have faced the top three teams in the Leaders over the last three weeks and lost to two of them by only a score.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Saline 35, Temperance Bedford 21 The Hornets secured a share of an eighth-straight Southeastern Conference Red championship with an opportunity to finish the outright title run this week against Dexter. Saline quarterback CJ Carr was a standout with three passing touchdowns and one more rushing. Bedford (5-2) still has a strong chance to reach seven wins for the first time since 2016 with its final two opponents a combined 1-13. Click for more from the Toledo Blade.

Watch list Sand Creek 48, Erie Mason 6 The Aggies (5-2) will need some help from Mason in Week 9 to catch leader Ottawa Lake Whiteford for a share of the Tri-County Conference title, but Sand Creek moved into a tie for second place by avenging last season’s 56-38 loss to the Eagles (4-3).

Remember this one Michigan Center 12, Napoleon 7 The Cardinals (6-1) turned this week’s Napoleon/Addison game from a winner-take-all in the Cascades Conference title race to an opportunity to share the championship three ways if the Pirates can rebound with a win.

More shoutouts Addison 59, Grass Lake 0 Addison (7-0) sealed a share of the Cascades title, its third straight. Dexter 56, Monroe 27 This was an important win for Dexter (5-2), which sits No. 16 in Division 2 with two losses by a combined eight points and two undefeated opponents finishing off the regular-season schedule.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Stevensville Lakeshore 35, St. Joseph 28 The Lancers (6-1) scored 21 fourth-quarter points and the game winners during the final minute to hold on to a share of first place in the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference and send St. Joseph (5-2) into third with its second straight one-score defeat. The fourth quarter also featured back-to-back kickoff return touchdowns that made the score 28-28 before Ryan Korfmacher found Trevor Griffiths on a scoring pass as the final 30 seconds ticked off the clock. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.

Watch list White Pigeon 32, Cassopolis 8 While this game was only for second place in the Southwest 10 Conference, White Pigeon (6-1) held on to a top-10 spot in Division 8.

Remember this one Mattawan 19, Battle Creek Lakeview 14 The Wildcats’ only other win this fall came by forfeit, but they have a chance to finish strong after almost taking Lakeview (4-3) completely out of the SMAC title race.

More shoutouts Kalamazoo United 37, Watervliet 0 United (5-2) made a move into the top half of the Division 5 playoff list and remains one of two teams undefeated in Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore play after shutting down a Watervliet offense that averaged 32 points per game during its 4-2 start. Vicksburg 35, Plainwell 6 The Bulldogs (6-1) moved up to No. 5 in Division 4 after winning this matchup for second place in the Wolverine Conference.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Menominee 34, Marquette 13 The Maroons broke a three-game losing streak against Marquette and in doing so earned a share of the Great Northern Conference championship, their first since 2016. Menominee (5-2) went up 20-6 by halftime and locked down an offense that was averaging 44 points per game. Marquette (5-2) still will receive a share of the league title if Kingsford defeats Menominee in Week 9.

Watch list Negaunee 31, Gladstone 30 The Miners (6-1) have been on a run since losing to Iron Mountain by two in the season opener, but just got past Gladstone (3-4) to keep the streak intact.

Remember this one Iron Mountain 28, Hancock 18 The Mountaineers (4-3) earned a boost up to No. 8 in Division 8 while putting Hancock (3-4) in a tough position trying to reach the Division 5 playoff field.

More shoutouts Ishpeming Westwood 38, L'Anse 6 The Patriots (6-1) secured a spot in a possible Week 9 winner-takes-at-least-a-share title game against Negaunee in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper. Calumet 31, Houghton 7 The above-mentioned Week 9 Copper game isn’t necessarily winner-take-all as Calumet (5-2) now finishes with the bottom two teams in the league and is guaranteed a share as well with wins in both.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Muskegon 49, Muskegon Mona Shores 28 The Big Reds (6-1) are back on top in this rivalry and back on top in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green after riding a big defensive touchdown just before halftime into a dominant second half. Mona Shores (5-2) led 21-14 during the first half before the big-time Big Reds finish. Click for more from CatchMark SportsNet.

Watch list Rockford 17, Caledonia 14 The Rams (7-0) took a major step toward an O-K Red title and perfect regular season by handing Caledonia (6-1) its lone loss. Rockford finishes with opponents that are a combined 3-11.

Remember this one Hudsonville Unity Christian 40, Grand Rapids West Catholic 14 Over two weeks we’ve watched the O-K Blue sort out from four first-place teams to Unity (7-0) on top alone with two league games to play and this the Crusaders’ closest so far.

More shoutouts Grand Rapids Christian 24, Byron Center 10 The O-K White race just got reshuffled a bit with the Eagles (4-3) back in the mix and Byron Center (6-1) now taking on leader Forest Hills Central this week just to keep a shared title possible. Spring Lake 27, Coopersville 20 The Lakers (6-1) and West Catholic (6-1) will be rooting this week for Coopersville (5-2), which moves on to take on Unity this week and can turn the Blue back into a three-team league race.

8-Player

HEADLINER Martin 28, Mendon 20 The Clippers (7-0) won a first-place showdown in the Southwest Michigan 8-Man Football League Tier 1 to clinch a share of the conference championship. Martin significantly slowed a Mendon offense averaging 48 points per game and can clinch the title outright next week against Marcellus, while Mendon (5-2) will face Gobles and hope for some help from the Wildcats. Click for more from the Sturgis Journal.

Watch list Indian River Inland Lakes 49, Pellston 6 The Bulldogs (7-0) still need one more win to clinch a share of the Ski Valley Conference title and still have second-place Gaylord St. Mary coming up in Week 9. But sending Pellston (6-1) also into second place in impressive fashion should turn a lot of eyes toward the No. 6 team in Division 1.

Remember this one Tekonsha 36, Waldron 14 Tekonsha (5-2) finished second in its league the last two seasons but clinched a share of the Southern Central Athletic Association B title with this win while sending Waldron (5-2) into a tie for second place.

More shoutouts Suttons Bay 45, Marion 0 By handing Marion (6-1) its lone loss and in a big way, the Norsemen (7-0) made a statement with the playoffs coming up. Pickford 34, Newberry 28 (OT) The Panthers (6-1) maintained control of their title hopes, while sending Newberry (5-2) nearly out of contention in the Great Lakes Eight Conference East.

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PHOTO Muskegon pulled away from rival Mona Shores during the second half of Friday's 49-28 win. (Photo courtesy of Local Sports Journal.)