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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Pewamo-Westphalia/Lansing Catholic football

1st & Goal: 2021 Week 9 in Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 25, 2021

For a lot of reasons – two big ones in particular – this football regular season had a different feel to it.

MI Student Aid

And one of those was magnified significantly during Week 9.

Of course, we’ve rolled through the fall almost “normally” after the 2020 season had to hurdle various COVID-related adjustments.

But the biggest football-related change this fall dealt with the first year of playoff qualification using the enhanced strength-of-schedule formula instead of automatic qualification by win total.  And with that switch, eyes were glued to the MHSAA playoff-point webpage from Thursday night through about 11 p.m. Saturday, watching every adjustment as we arrived with our 288-team field.

A lot of moving parts went into those final calculations, and the results below had leading roles.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Ubly 25, Bad Axe 13 The Bearcats (9-0) won a matchup of Greater Thumb Conference champions, representing the East in victory over one of the three co-champs from the West in the Hatchets (7-2). Ubly also locked up one of two perfect regular seasons in Division 8 – its first undefeated regular season since 2016 – to add to a run that has seen the program go 62-16 over the last seven years. Click for more from the Huron Daily Tribune.

Watch list Marine City 21, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 10 The Mariners (9-0) moved up to No. 2 in Division 5 playoff points, finishing with one of six perfect regular-season records in that bracket. Four wins came against teams in Division 3 and 4, including Notre Dame Prep (7-2).

Remember this one Lapeer 38, Davison 35 While the Lightning (7-2) locked up a Division 1 playoff spot, Davison (5-4) just missed the postseason for the first time since 2014, adding another layer to an always highly-anticipated rivalry game.

More shoutouts Flint Kearsley 35, Armada 27 The Hornets started 2-3 but won four straight to return to the Division 3 playoffs, over an Armada team that at 6-3 is back in the playoffs for the first time (not counting the all-in 2020) since 2004. Frankenmuth 28, New Lothrop 14 Both are hoping to return to Ford Field, New Lothrop (6-3) the reigning Division 7 champion and Frankenmuth (9-0) the returning Division 5 runner-up and coming off a second-straight perfect regular season.

Frankenmuth/New Lothrop football

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Gibraltar Carlson 28, Brownstown Woodhaven 14 Carlson’s first win over Woodhaven (8-1) since 2017 netted the Marauders a share of the Downriver League championship, their first since sharing with Woodhaven in 2018, and also pushed Carlson (8-1) up to No. 3 in the final Division 3 ranking. Three Cody Britt rushing touchdowns were among the difference-makers. Click for more from the Southgate News-Herald.

Watch list Detroit Cass Tech 40, Orchard Lake St. Mary's 7 Eyes across the state were watching the Division 1 playoff list as scores came in Friday night, knowing the Technicians (6-3) had won big Thursday but still were on the edge of qualifying. Downing the Division 3-qualifying Eaglets (5-4) provided the necessary bump for Cass Tech to lock up a postseason spot.

Remember this one Belleville 46, Hartland 9 Since falling to Livonia Churchill in Week 3, Belleville (8-1) has won six straight including to clinch the Kensington Lakes Activities Association East and now overall titles. This win over the Eagles (7-2) tied for its biggest playoff points bump of the season.  

More shoutouts Oxford 29, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 28 The Wildcats (5-4) ran their winning streak to four with three of those wins by one score and two by one point, this time against a Chippewa Valley team (6-3) with three losses by a combined nine points. Madison Heights Bishop Foley 43, Clarkston Everest Collegiate 37 Jackson Zeiter caught two touchdown passes, ran for a third score and returned a kickoff for another in the Detroit Catholic League Cardinal championship game.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Pewamo-Westphalia 12, Lansing Catholic 7 The Pirates pushed the go-ahead score across midway through the fourth quarter to add one of their most impressive wins to a run of 60 regular-season victories over their last 62 games going back to 2015. P-W not only handed Division 6 top-ranked Lansing Catholic (8-1) its lone loss, but the Division 7 No. 5 Pirates (9-0) avenged last season’s 28-13 defeat against the Cougars. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Portland 31, Montague 7 The Raiders (7-2) earned their second win this season over a reigning Finals champion, adding this victory over Division 6 Montague (6-3) to the Week 2 edging of Division 3 DeWitt.

Remember this one Ionia 35, Lake Odessa Lakewood 14 The Bulldogs’ third-straight win in this annual Week 9 rivalry game meant more this season as it sent Ionia (5-4) into the Division 3 playoffs with their first (not counting 2020) berth since 2013.

More shoutouts Holt 34, Grand Ledge 6 The Rams (7-2) made it three wins in their last four games against the rival Comets (6-3), this one helping Holt finish second in the final Capital Area Activities Conference Blue standings. DeWitt 50, Stevensville Lakeshore 14 The CAAC Blue champ Panthers (8-1) added another impressive nonconference win against a Lakeshore team (6-3) they could see again in a Division 3 Regional Final.

Perry/Bath football

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Traverse City St. Francis 38, Kingsley 30 The winner-takes-all matchup for the Northern Michigan Football Conference Legends championship was everything it was billed, with St. Francis (9-0) regaining the title after Kingsley (8-1) had won the last two. The Gladiators were behind 16-0 early, then up 16 into the fourth quarter before holding off a late rally to finish their first undefeated regular season since 2018. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Watch list East Jordan 22, Frankfort 18 This one easily could’ve been considered the region’s “headliner” as well as East Jordan also won a winner-take-all NMFC matchup, to claim the Legacy title, and in doing so also clinched the final playoff spot in Division 7.

Remember this one Maple City Glen Lake 20, Mancelona 6 The Lakers (4-5) appeared all but done after a 1-5 start. But those defeats came against an eventually undefeated team, three with still one loss and another now at 6-3 – and defeating Mancelona (5-3) earned Glen Lake the second-to-last playoff spot in Division 6.

More shoutouts McBain 32, Muskegon Heights Academy 28 The Ramblers (6-3) were able to lock up a Division 7 playoff spot against a Muskegon Heights Academy team (5-4) that also reached the postseason, in Division 8. Grayling 32, Benzie Central 26 The third-place team in the Legends, Grayling (7-2) closed on a four-game winning streak.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Jonesville 20, Addison 14 The Comets completed their first perfect regular season since 1988 (according to Michigan-football.com) in this Big 8/Cascades champions crossover, in doing so handing Addison (8-1) its lone loss. Defense reigned as both teams were held to season-low scoring totals. The win helped Jonesville (9-0) improve four spots to No. 11 in Division 6, but didn’t move Addison from No. 3 in Division 8. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen Patriot.

Watch list Ottawa Lake Whiteford 62, Erie Mason 22 The Bobcats (8-1) eliminated the possibility of a shared Tri-County Conference championship, instead earning the title outright and finishing an in-state run of eight wins by at least 20 points. Their only loss this season was to Edon, Ohio.

Remember this one Ann Arbor Huron 31, Rochester 14 This season has been memorable and then some for the River Rats. Huron (8-1) moved up five spots to No. 10 in Division 1, and its eight wins tied as many as the program won from 2011-20 – and are the most in one season since 2001.  

More shoutouts Parma Western 35, Richmond 17 The Panthers (6-3) held onto the No. 27 spot in Division 3, and Richmond (4-5) also kept its grip on a playoff spot in Division 5. Michigan Center 28, Reading 20 This Big 8/Cascades runner-up crossover capped another solid regular season for the Cardinals, whose only loss was by a point Week 4 to Addison.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Portage Central 26, Battle Creek Harper Creek 7 The Mustangs (7-2) won this matchup of league champions with one of their strongest defensive performances, holding Harper Creek scoreless until midway through the fourth quarter. Portage Central moved up five spots to No. 11 in Division 2, while Harper Creek (6-3) moved down five to a still-comfortable No. 21 in Division 3. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.

Watch list Lawton 42, Saugatuck 21 This combined with Delton Kellogg’s loss to Schoolcraft gave Lawton (9-0) the outright Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley championship and its second perfect regular season in three years.

Remember this one Mattawan 26, Battle Creek Central 6 After losing nine straight on the field between the end of last season and start of this one, the Wildcats (4-5) finished on a three-game winning streak (to go with a Week 4 forfeit victory) to gain the No. 29 spot in Division 3.

More shoutouts Niles Brandywine 44, Benton Harbor 32 After opening with a pair of solid wins including against reigning Division 8 champion Centreville, Brandywine (4-5) found itself outside the Division 7 playoff field before jumping up five spots to No. 28 with this victory. Parchment 38, Watervliet 27 The Panthers (6-3) have occupied the No. 32 spot in Division 5 four of the last seven weeks – and with this win, held onto it when it counted most. Watervliet (5-4) still tied for No. 29 in Division 6.

Bark River-Harris/Ishpeming football

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Ishpeming Westwood 32, Negaunee 14 The Patriots (8-1) locked up a shared Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper championship with Calumet, putting up the most points Negaunee has given up in a game this season while holding the Miners (7-2) to their fewest since Week 1. The championship was Westwood’s first since 1992 in the Mid-Peninsula Conference. Click for more from Upper Michigan Source.

Watch list Kingsford 34, Menominee 27 The Flivvers (6-3) hadn’t played a Great Northern Conference game since Week 5, but came back to finish off the regular season by keeping Menominee (5-4) from an outright league title and turning the championship into a three-team share with these two and Marquette.

Remember this one Bark River-Harris 26, Ishpeming 0 The Broncos (6-3) finished a perfect run through the West-PAC Iron with this winner-take-all championship game victory.

More shoutouts Calumet 53, L'Anse 32 As noted above, this gave the Copper Kings (7-2) a share of the Copper championship, their first since 2018. Marquette 17, Petoskey 14 Not only did it get to celebrate a league championship, but Marquette moved to 7-2 for the second-straight season to again tie its winningest going back to 2010.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Muskegon Catholic Central 30, Muskegon Oakridge 28 They aren’t quite neighbors, but made the 10-mile drive again for the first time since back-to-back games in 2015 and 2016 in another matchup of league champions. MCC (8-1) made the return trip home having represented the Lakes 8 Activities Conference well with a close victory over Oakridge (7-2), one of three co-winners of the West Michigan Conference title. Joe Waller ran for the tying touchdown and then two-point conversion winner with nine seconds to play. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

Watch list Reed City 38, Whitehall 28 This league champion clash saw the winner of the Central State Activities Association Gold, Reed City (8-1), edge another of the three West Michigan Conference co-champs in Whitehall (7-2).

Remember this one Hopkins 38, Belding 22 Both are in Division 5, and Hopkins (5-4) made a big jump to No. 17 past Belding (5-4), which sits No. 19 as both secured spots in the field.

More shoutouts Cedar Springs 38, Grand Rapids South Christian 32 The Red Hawks (7-2) bounced back from a one-point Week 8 loss to Grand Rapids Catholic Central to win another close one, over the Sailors (6-3). Grand Rapids Christian 48, Grand Rapids Northview 17 The Eagles (6-3) moved up for the third-straight week with this win, to No. 7 in Division 4, while making Northview (4-5) the last team eliminated from joining the Division 3 field.

8-Player

HEADLINER Morrice 60, Deckerville 18 The Orioles (9-0) secured their fifth North Central Thumb League title in five seasons and second-straight in the Stars division while also handing Deckerville (7-1) its lone loss of the fall. Morrice shut down an Eagles offense that entered averaging 56 points per game, and with the win jumped five spots to No. 1 in Division 2. Click for more from WILX.

Watch list Adrian Lenawee Christian 41, Britton Deerfield 20 The Cougars (9-0) won this matchup of undefeated teams, but it could’ve been only chapter one – they may face again in a Division 1 Regional Final, although Britton Deerfield (8-1) opens this week on the road at Deckerville.  

Remember this one Powers North Central 42, Crystal Falls Forest Park 0 These two have build quite a rivalry over the last decade, and this meeting gave the Jets the outright Great Lakes Eight Conference West championship and their sixth shutout on the field this fall. North Central has given up 13 points total over eight games.

More shoutouts Indian River Inland Lakes 44, Gaylord St. Mary 30 The Bulldogs (9-0) finished a perfect regular season with the Ski Valley Conference championship, when a win by the Snowbirds (5-4) would’ve created a three-way shared title. Newberry 44, Rogers City 36 The GLEC East co-runners-up handed Rogers City (8-1) its lone loss while improving to 7-2.

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PHOTOS (Top) A Pewamo-Westphalia defender wraps up a Lansing Catholic ball carrier as the ball pops loose Friday. (2) A Frankenmuth ball carrier makes a move toward the sideline against New Lothrop. (3) Novi, left, and Livonia Churchill lock up during a Friday night crossover. (4) A Perry ball carrier pulls away from a Bath defender down the sideline. (5) A Bark River-Harris ball carrier works for more yardage as Ishpeming players pursue. (Photos by High School Sports Scene (1), Terry Lyons (2), Douglas Bargerstock (3), Christine McCallister (4) and Cara Kamps (5).)