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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Ithaca defenders converge on a Shepherd ball carried during the Yellowjackets' 43-0 win to finish 9-0.

1st & Goal: 2024 Week 9 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 28, 2024

Wow. The 2024 football regular season did not go quietly. 

MI Student AidBetween multiple matchups of undefeated teams, several league championships being decided, and final maneuvering to get into the field of the 50th MHSAA Football Playoffs, there was a lot to follow – with the final moves still being made late Saturday afternoon.

Below we glance at several of the highlights, and Friday we'll move into playoff mode as we preview the first round of this season's tournament. 

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Midland 17, Midland Dow 6 Midland High (8-1) locked up one of the final league championships still in question, finishing an outright title run in the Saginaw Valley League Blue when a Dow win would have given the Chargers (5-4) a share. The Chemics also avenged two losses to Dow from 2023, from the regular-season finale and first week of the playoffs, and they could meet again this postseason as well if both win first-round games this week. Click for more from the Midland Daily News.

Watch list Almont 49, Detroit Edison 24 Almont (9-0) enters the playoffs as the No. 1 overall seed in Division 6, holding down the top spot for the third-straight week with this win over Edison (6-3), which entered Week 9 No. 6 on the Division 6 playoff list. The Raiders had last finished a regular season 9-0 in 2019.

On the move Davison 48, Lapeer 28 The Cardinals (7-2) cemented second place in the SVL Blue, but more importantly moved ahead of Oxford to earn a home game in their Division 1 matchup this week. Marine City 37, Detroit Central 15 The Mariners finished second in the Macomb Area Conference Silver this season but defeated a co-league champion in Central (6-3) to hold onto the No. 4 spot on the Division 6 playoff list. Frankenmuth 41, Gladwin 14 The Eagles (9-0) wrapped up a fourth perfect regular season over the last half-decade with a second-straight win over Gladwin (6-3).

Great Detroit

HEADLINER Detroit Catholic Central 23, Detroit Martin Luther King 7 DCC’s Jaden Pydyn starred in this Prep Bowl showcase game at Ford Field, running for two touchdowns and scoring a third on an interception return. The Shamrocks moved to 9-0, completing their first perfect regular season since COVID-shortened 2020 and first at 9-0 since 2016, and they sit second on the Division 1 playoff list. King finished 6-3 and moved down only one spot on the Division 3 list to No. 7. Click for more from Hometown Life.

Watch list Romeo 14, Grand Blanc 13 This one was a stunner as Grand Blanc (7-2) had just clinched the SVL Red title the week before and Romeo (4-5) was six spots from falling out of the Division 1 playoff field. Instead, Romeo moved up to No. 19 and earned a rematch with Week 3 opponent Utica Eisenhower.

On the move Macomb Dakota 28, Oxford 0 Dakota (8-1) won a meeting of league champions, adding to its shared title in the MAC Red by shutting out the Oakland Activities Association Red-winning Wildcats (6-3). Clarkston 32, Utica Eisenhower 3 Clarkston (6-3) finished tied for second in the OAA Red and dominated its matchup with the other co-champion from the MAC Red, sending Eisenhower to 7-2. Macomb Lutheran North 17, Clarkston Everest Collegiate 14 (OT) Lutheran North (8-1) completed its most successful regular season since posting the same record in 2006, adding the Catholic High School League Cardinal championship by handing Everest (8-1) its only loss.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Howell 30, Belleville 29 Howell finished 9-0, concluding its first perfect regular season since 1963 (according to Michigan-Football.com) and after going only 3-6 a year ago. The Highlanders retained the No. 1 position on the Division 1 playoff list for the third straight week. So to call this a shocker seems at least a little absurd, but Belleville (8-1) hadn’t lost a regular-season game since Week 3 of 2021 and has played in three straight Division 1 Finals and won the last two. Justin Jones’ touchdown grab from Preston Barb with eight seconds to play clinched the overall Kensington Lakes Activities Association championship and was called by the Howell Football’s X feed “the biggest play in the history of Howell football.” Click for more from the Livingston Daily Press & Argus.

Watch list Leslie 35, Hanover-Horton 14 The Blackhawks (8-1) have gone from not posting a winning season since 2012 to claiming the overall Cascades Conference championship by handing Hanover-Horton (8-1) its only defeat.

On the move Belding 40, Hopkins 0 In a winner-take-all for the Ottawa-Kent Conference Silver title, Belding (8-1) did so for the third straight season, running its league winning streak to 17 games and sending the Vikings to 6-3. Fowler 35, McBain 28 The Eagles (9-0) completed their first perfect regular season since 2014 and are No. 3 on the Division 8 playoff list after handing Division 7 McBain (8-1) its only defeat. Mason 43, Fenton 0 Mason (7-2) won a matchup of league champions and moved up to No. 8 on the Division 3 playoff list as it begins a quest to reach Ford Field for the second-straight season.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Boyne City 23, Traverse City St. Francis 20 Ryan Spate’s 35-yard field goal with five seconds to play turned an outright league championship for St. Francis (6-3) into a three-team share that included the Ramblers (7-2) and Kingsley in the Northern Michigan Football League Legends. The win was Boyne’s first over the Gladiators since 2017. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.

Watch list Maple City Glen Lake 35, Mancelona 0 The Lakers (8-1) completed an outright championship in the NMFL Legacy and sit No. 8 on the Division 8 playoff list with their only loss this season to Division 6 Reed City.

On the move Traverse City West 23, Traverse City Central 7 The Titans (6-3) capped their best regular-season finish in three years with their second-straight win over rival Central (4-5). Petoskey 42, Clare 21 Petoskey won this matchup of league champions to finish 9-0 for the first time since 1974. Clare is 7-2 with its only losses to league title winners. Kingsley 47, Charlevoix 28 The Stags received a piece of the NMFL Legends title thanks to Boyne City’s win, and also moved up to No. 13 on the Division 6 playoff list for downing the Rayders (6-3).

Grand Ledge's Anthony Baker (28) eludes Okemos defenders as Sean Cho (7) pursues during the Comets' 46-10 win.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Dexter 35, Chelsea 6 The Southeastern Conference Red-winning Dreadnaughts (9-0) claimed this matchup of league champions after jumping to a 21-0 first-quarter lead against the SEC White-clinching Bulldogs (7-2). In doing so, Dexter also avenged last season’s 31-21 loss to Chelsea. Click for more from the Ann Arbor News.

Watch list Pinckney 12, Ann Arbor Pioneer 7 Including the first four games of this season, Pinckney (5-4) had lost 13 straight before winning their last five games this fall with this one clinching a Division 4 playoff berth. The Pirates jumped six spots to No. 30 on that division’s playoff list.

On the move Jackson Lumen Christi 39, Kalamazoo United 21 Lumen (8-1) impressed in another CHSL Prep Bowl showcase game, handing another league champion in United (7-2) just its second defeat. Saline 8, Lake Orion 7 Saline (6-3) scored and added a two-point conversion during the final minutes of the fourth quarter to get past the Dragons (6-3). Ida 23, Clinton 14 Ida (8-1) secured second place in the Lenawee Country Athletic Association and sent Clinton (6-3) into third, and ended a three-game losing streak against the Redwolves.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Kalamazoo Central 20, Kalamazoo Loy Norrix 10 The most consequential meeting of these rivals in some time went to Central (6-3), which not only clinched the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference East title outright but jumped five spots to No. 32 in Division 1 to secure a first playoff appearance since 2018 (not counting COVID-shortened 2020, when nearly all teams qualified). Loy Norrix missed the playoffs, but at 5-4 posted its best finish since 1998. Click for more from WWMT.

Watch list St. Joseph 15, Portage Central 0 Despite losing a Week 7 contest to Mattawan, St. Joseph (8-1) clawed back to shut out Portage Central and share the SMAC East championship with the Mustangs (6-3). The shutout was St. Joseph’s third over the last seven weeks and avenged last year’s loss to Central.

On the move Niles 21, Paw Paw 0 Niles (8-1) finished a second-straight perfect run through the Wolverine Conference, posting its second-straight shutout this month and fifth of the season in this winner-take-all matchup. Paw Paw also is 8-1 and will travel back to Niles this weekend for a Division 4 playoff opener. Stevensville Lakeshore 28, Portage Northern 13 Despite losing its first six games this season, Lakeshore (3-6) won its final three and will return to the playoffs after facing six opponents that finished with winning records including Northern (5-4). Buchanan 17, Union City 7 The Bucks (6-3) jumped from a precarious No. 31 spot on the Division 6 list all the way up to No. 22 with this win over a league champion in Union City (8-1).

An Otsego player pulls in a pass during the Bulldogs' 17-7 win over Three Rivers. 

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Kingsford 27, Marquette 17 Kingsford (9-0) defeated a longtime rival to finish a first perfect regular season since 2002, and by downing the Division 2 Sentinels moved all the way up to No. 4 on the Division 5 playoff list. The Flivvers have won three straight over Marquette, which finished 6-3. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Watch list Iron Mountain 35, Negaunee 21 The Mountaineers (9-0) completed their second-straight perfect regular season with a second-straight win over Negaunee (6-3), and in doing so moved up to No. 8 on the Division 8 playoff list and secured home games through the Regional Final should they continue to advance.

On the move Escanaba 50, Gladstone 7 Escanaba (5-4) won its final two games to finish this season with as many victories as the last three combined. Calumet 51, L’Anse 6 The Copper Kings (6-3) have fallen between Nos. 26-32 on the Division 6 playoff list the last four weeks but secured the No. 30 spot and a place in the bracket with this fourth-straight victory this season. Menominee 41, Bark River-Harris 0 The Maroons bounced back from a two-point loss to Kingsford in Week 8 to close out its best regular season since 2016 and move into the No. 2 spot on the Division 7 playoff list as they too work to get back to Ford Field for the second consecutive November.  

West Michigan

HEADLINER Coopersville 35, Cedar Springs 21 The first-year River Cities Alliance put four of seven teams into the playoffs, making Coopersville’s shared league championship with Lowell even more impressive. The title was the Broncos’ first since 2007 and came as the program also has celebrated its 100th season. Coopersville is 6-3, and Cedar Springs (7-2) would have shared the title instead with a win. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Watch list Hudsonville Unity Christian 43, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 28 Unity Christian (9-0) has owned the No. 1 spot on the Division 4 playoff list the last five weeks and impressed yet again sending Notre Dame Prep (7-1) from No. 1 to No. 2 on the Division 5 list.

On the move Grandville 49, Caledonia 20 Grandville (5-4) plowed into the Division 1 playoffs with two straight wins to cap the regular season and kept Caledonia (4-5) from making a final move up the Division 2 list. Grand Rapids South Christian 26, Grand Rapids Catholic Central 20 The Sailors (5-4) were able to secure a place in the Division 4 field by avenging last year’s loss to the Cougars (5-4) to break a four-game losing streak. Zeeland West 34, Grand Rapids West Catholic 20 The Dux (8-1) will bound into the Division 3 playoffs coming off this win over the O-K White champion Falcons (6-3).

Ishpeming's Ethan Corp works to get past an Auburn Hills Oakland Christian defender Saturday during the Hematites' 58-6 victory.

8-Player

HEADLINER Powers North Central 45, Crystal Falls Forest Park 34 The latest chapter in this rivalry saw the Jets claim the Great Lakes Eight Conference West championship outright via this winner-take-all matchup. North Central has won seven straight over the Trojans, this time scoring the most points Forest Park (8-1) has given up this season and holding the Trojans to their second-fewest. Click for more form the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Watch list Deckerville 50, Alcona 42 Deckerville (9-0) faced one of its few challenges this fall – and prevailed impressively once again to finish a regular season undefeated for the first time since 2019. The Eagles remained on top of the Division 1 playoff list as Alcona (8-1) fell one spot to No. 3 with its first defeat.

On the move Indian River Inland Lakes 50, Gaylord St. Mary 8 Inland Lakes (9-0) has never lost a league game in 8-player and wrapped up its fourth-straight Ski Valley Conference title in this winner-take-all with the Snowbirds (7-2). Climax-Scotts 63, Pittsford 14 Climax-Scotts also impressed again in this matchup of league champions, moving to a combined 18-1 over the last two seasons after losing only its opener this fall. Kingston 26, Marion 22 The Cardinals (7-2) showed more of the power of the Big Thumb Conference Blue. They finished third as Deckerville won the league and Brown City was runner-up this fall, but closed the regular season by handing Marion (8-1) its lone loss.

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PHOTOS (Top) Ithaca defenders converge on a Shepherd ball carried during the Yellowjackets' 43-0 win Friday to finish 9-0. (2) Grand Ledge's Anthony Baker (28) finds a crease as Okemos' Sean Cho (7) pursues during the Comets' 46-10 win. (3) An Otsego player pulls in a pass during the Bulldogs' 17-7 win over Three Rivers. (4) Ishpeming's Ethan Corp works to get past an Auburn Hills Oakland Christian defender Saturday during the Hematites' 58-6 victory. (Top photo by High School Sports Scene. Grand Ledge/Okemos photo by John Johnson. Otsego/Three Rivers photo by Gary Shook. Ishpeming/Oakland Christian photo by Cara Kamps.)