Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

1st & Goal: 2021 11-Player Semifinals Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

November 19, 2021

Our final 32 11-player football teams are one more win from playing at Ford Field.

MI Student AidAt this time of year, and with the added detail we have on each Semifinal below, that’s plenty of introduction.

All 16 games will be broadcast live. Bally Sports Detroit will feature on its primary channel the Division 1 Semifinal between Sterling Heights Stevenson and Belleville, and the other 15 games can be watched on MHSAA.tv.

Division 1

Rochester Adams (12-0) vs. Grand Blanc (12-0) at Howell

This might be one of the weekend’s most difficult games to predict, because these teams seem to match up so well. Senior running back Elijah Jackson-Anderson (1,119 yards/16 TDs rushing) and senior quarterback Hunter Ames (1,795 yards/21 TDs passing), plus a defense giving up 15 points per game, has keyed Grand Blanc’s school-record playoff run. Adams, aiming for its first Final since 2003, is giving up 11 points per game and following the lead of junior quarterback Parker Picot (1,165 yards/18 TDs rushing, 4 TDs passing) and senior running back Griffin Henke (863 yards/15 TDs rushing).

Sterling Heights Stevenson (10-2) vs. Belleville (11-1) at Troy Athens

Belleville is playing a Semifinal for the fourth-straight season and hoping to book its first trip to Ford Field. Freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood is a player to remember this weekend and for the next three years. Stevenson is playing in its second Semifinal in three seasons and seeking its first Finals berth since 2009 on the rushing attack of seniors Jordan Ramsey (1,204 yards/16 TDs rushing ) and Jordan Kwiatkowski (1,283 yards/15 TDs). Senior Biagio Madonna is another big-time playmaker, running for 872 yards and 12 touchdowns and throwing for 1,011 yards and five scores.

Division 2

Traverse City Central (11-1) vs. South Lyon (12-0) at Greenville

A long-awaited opportunity is on the line for both; Central is seeking to reach the Finals for the first time since 1988 (and first time since Traverse City West opened), while South Lyon last played in a championship game in 1995. Senior Josh Burnham (6-foot-4, 230 pounds) has exceeded high expectations, running for 1,315 yards and 25 touchdowns and throwing for 934 yards and 14 scores while also starting at linebacker. Junior Reed Seabase (1,175 yards/12 TDs rushing) carries a significant load on offense as well. Last week’s 29-23 overtime win over Portage Central was South Lyon’s first by fewer than 14 points. Junior Tommy Donovan (895 yards/16 TDs rushing) is among playmakers, and senior Braden Fracassi (865 yards/8 TDs passing) has stepped in well after the Lions lost their starting quarterback to injury midway through the regular season.

Livonia Franklin (7-5) vs. Warren De La Salle Collegiate (11-0) at Hazel Park

The Pilots – last season’s Division 2 runners-up – have been one of the teams most expected to reach this point, especially after their undefeated run through the Detroit Catholic League Central. Junior quarterback Brady Drogosh led last season’s run and remains tough to slow down – he’s run for 1,440 yards and 21 touchdowns and thrown for 1,285 yards and 10 scores. Franklin entered the playoffs 4-5 and defeated three teams that were a combined 22-8. Two of the Patriots’ top three scoring outputs of the season have come during the postseason run.

Division 3

St. Joseph (8-4) vs. DeWitt (11-1) at Jenison

The reigning Division 3 champion Panthers returned the majority of their playmakers this fall and have scored 48 points per game led by senior quarterback Tyler Holtz (2,483 yards/36 TDs passing, 829 yards/11 TDs rushing) and senior receiver Tommy McIntosh (1,107 yards/19 touchdowns receiving). St. Joseph is playing to make the Finals for the first time since 1988. The Bears are grinders, with more than 2,800 yards rushing led by juniors Trey McGinnis (902 yards/14 TDs) and Joron Brown (850 yards/12 TDs).

Mason (10-2) vs. Detroit Martin Luther King (11-1) at Wayne Memorial

The Bulldogs coming off one of the biggest wins in their history, 20-17 over Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice, to reach the Semifinals for the first time. Next up is another team most expected to be back at this level. King is looking to return to Ford Field for the third time in four seasons. Junior quarterback Dante Moore is one of the most heralded players in Michigan, and for plenty of reasons – he’s thrown for 2,626 yards and 37 touchdowns over 10 games on the field (two wins were by forfeit). Mason has put together more than 4,000 yards of total offense, with sophomore running back AJ Martel (1,430 yards/23 TDs rushing) the key cog.

Division 4

Edwardsburg (12-0) vs. Hudsonville Unity Christian (12-0) at Portage Northern

A pair of recent champions will face off – both won titles in 2018, Edwardsburg in Division 4 and Unity in Division 5. Three years later, both are on similar paces as those title winners. Edwardsburg’s average margin of victory this fall is 48 points, thanks to a defense giving up less than five points per game and a rushing attack that’s run for 4,400 yards with five backs gaining between 400-700. Unity’s average margin of victory is 45 points with an offense that has scored at least 40 every game. Senior Drew Chandler has run for 1,242 of the Crusaders’ 4,500 on the ground.

Freeland (11-1) vs. Chelsea (12-0) at Lapeer

The Falcons are playing in their fifth Semifinal – and second straight – hoping to reach the Finals for the first time. Senior quarterback Bryson Huckeby (1,522 yards/15 TDs passing, 8 TDs rushing) and senior Garrett Pistro (1,037 yards/18 touchdowns rushing) lead a balanced offense. Chelsea has reached the Semifinals four straight seasons and eliminated reigning champion Detroit Country Day last week. The Bulldogs hope to return to Ford Field for the first time since 2018 with senior running back Trenton Hill (1,400 yards/29 TDs rushing) and senior quarterback Lucas Dunn (1,440 yards/18 TDs passing) leading a similarly-balanced attack.

Division 5

Frankenmuth (12-0) vs. Grand Rapids Catholic Central (12-0) at Mount Pleasant

This is a rematch of last season’s Division 5 championship game, a 48-21 Catholic Central win. The Cougars lost star quarterback Joey Silveri to injury early this season, but senior John Passinault (1,765 yards/33 TDs passing) has stepped in and been outstanding as well with lots of help from senior tight end Nolan Ziegler (1,039 yards/23 TDs receiving). Frankenmuth also returns one of its best playmakers in senior running back Cole Lindow (1,794 yards/20 TDs rushing), while senior Cole Jankowski has stepped in well at quarterback with 18 rushing touchdowns and six more passing.

Portland (10-2) vs. Marine City (12-0) at Novi

These are two more teams familiar with this stage, as both last made the Semifinals in 2018 and won championships during the last decade. Marine City is giving up only nine points per game and has three players averaging at least 10 yards per carry, led by junior Zach Tetler (1,302 yards/27 TDs rushing). Portland’s strategy also isn’t a secret, and just as effective – four Raiders have run for 700 or more yards and eight touchdowns apiece.

Division 6

Standish-Sterling (10-2) vs. Lansing Catholic (11-1) at Clare

Standish-Sterling is one of the comeback stories of the year, after finishing 1-6 a season ago. The Panthers now run into Lansing Catholic, making its third-straight trip to the Semifinals and having won Division 5 in 2019. Senior Joey Baker (2,523 yards/27 TDs passing) is the latest great Cougars quarterback, and senior Alex Watters (1,063 yards/14 TDs receiving) also was among stars of that 2019 team. Standish-Sterling’s defense has been outstanding during the playoffs, giving up 21 points over three games, and senior Laine Thibault (1,396 yards rushing) is solid leading the offense.  

Michigan Center (11-1) vs. Warren Michigan Collegiate (10-2) Ypsilanti Lincoln

Both are seeking their first championship game appearances. Michigan Center has gotten here with a defense giving up 11 points per game and an offense keyed by multi-talented senior quarterback Kaydin Hiland (1,322 yards/19 TDs rushing, 7 TDs passing, 7 TDs receiving). Michigan Collegiate is paced by an excellent dual-threat QB as well – senior Deion Black has run for 1,134 yards and 14 touchdowns and thrown for 13 scores.

Division 7

Pewamo-Westphalia (12-0) vs. Traverse City St. Francis (12-0) at Cedar Springs

These two combined have played in seven Semifinals and three championship games over the last five years. P-W complements a defense giving up six points per game with an offense led by two runners with at least 800 yards and 10 touchdowns apiece. All of the Pirates’ nonleague wins, including in the playoffs, have been over teams that won conference titles this fall. St. Francis is the reigning Division 7 runner-up, having fallen by just seven points in last season’s Final. The Gladiators haven’t scored less than 48 points during the playoffs, led by senior quarterback Charlie Peterson (1,677 yards/21 TDs passing).

Lawton (12-0) vs. Jackson Lumen Christi (11-1) at Battle Creek Harper Creek

These two have vastly different playoff pasts but could look very similar when they meet. Lawton is playing in its first Semifinal, relying on a defense giving up eight points per game and a senior running back in Jake Rueff with incredible numbers – 2,253 yards and 46 touchdowns on the ground. Lumen Christi is a regular in late November, and the recipe is similar – the defense gives up 13 points per game, and the offense runs the ball with five backs gaining between 400-900 yards this fall.

Division 8

Ubly (12-0) vs. Beal City (11-1) at Mt. Morris

Reigning runner-up Ubly has yet to play a single-digit game this fall. Sophomore quarterback Evan Peruski is averaging 11.1 yards per carry for 1,009 total, along with 17 touchdowns rushing, and he’s thrown for eight more scores. Beal City’s only loss was opening night by a point to Ravenna, and the Aggies have been rarely challenged otherwise. They are winning by 29 points per game, giving up just under nine on average.

Ottawa Lake Whiteford (11-1) vs. Hudson (12-0) at Adrian College

Hudson’s defense has been an intriguing follow, giving up just under six points per game and last allowing more than eight in Week 5. The Tigers match that with an offense that’s rushed for 3,600 yards, led by senior Nick Kopin’s 1,397 with 16 touchdowns on the ground. Whiteford is undefeated in-state, with its lone defeat to an opponent from Ohio, and all of the Bobcats’ wins have been by double digits. Senior Cole Giesige is a big part of a balanced offense, running for 1,241 yards and 21 scores this fall.

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PHOTO Sterling Heights Stevenson’s Jordan Ramsey (5) fends off a potential tackler during his team’s Semifinal win. (Photo courtesy of C&G Newspapers.)