Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

North Central Builds On High-Flying Fame with Repeat Title

By Adam Niemi
Special for Second Half

November 20, 2021

MARQUETTE — In the end, the encore wasn't that much different than the first title run for the latest Powers North Central powerhouse team.

The Jets got off to a fast start en route to a 63-0 win against Colon to repeat as MHSAA 8-player Division 2 champions Saturday. Last season, many of the same standouts led North Central to a 70-48 championship game win over Portland St. Patrick.

"Oh gosh, it just feels great," Powers North Central head coach Leo Gorzinski said. "Like I've been telling these guys all week, we come this far, we work this hard and let's finish it. And that's been the rallying point all week. We talked about all the time people didn't work. They were in a weight room since February, two-a-days in August. So they weren't going to let this one slip away. But it's a great feeling."

Saturday's title adds to the Jets' 8-player football championship pedigree with go-to athletes. This championship also was the their fourth in seven years.

The Jets (13-0) won these two with Luke Gorzinski at quarterback. The Jets also won back-to-back championships in 2015 and 2016, led by quarterback Jason Whitens, now a redshirt senior basketball player at Michigan State, with then-head coach Kevin Bellefeuil.

"I want to thank all the guys that come before us," Gorzinski said. "Once they showed it can be done, everybody started believing that it was possible. And then once they believed it, now they want to be the ones to let it go. We've got a pretty good thing going right now."

The 2021 season will go down as one of the most dominant in Michigan 8-player history. Through 13 games, the Jets outscored opponents 745-43, an average game score of 57 to 3.

The details of Saturday's win hinted at the athleticism and depth that spurred the Jets on. They had 520 yards of offense. Colon had 126.

Colon received the kickoff to start the game, and the Jets' defense set the tone with three straight tackles for loss and forced a three-and-out from Colon's 4-yard line.

The Jets' potent defense went on to hold the Magi rushing game to minus-14 yards on 20 carries.

Saturday also spelled the end to Colon's Cinderella run. The Magi had beaten undefeated teams in every round of the playoffs except Saturday.

Junior quarterback Simon Vinson went down with an injury with 1:01 remaining in the first quarter. Magi head coach Robbie Hattan said Vinson's injury changed the mood on the sidelines.

"Losing Simon, when Simon went down, some kids put their heads down and they couldn't bounce back from that," Hattan said. "I'll give my kids credit. The second half they battled, we played much better in the second half defensively. A lot of the kids struggled getting used to the heat here. Right away they're cramping, and somehow our Gatorade was left on the bus and the kids couldn't refuel. It just was a weird day for us."

Powers North Central senior running back Wyatt Raab scored both touchdowns to open the game, from 15 and 30 yards out, respectively. He finished the day with 101 yards on five carries (20.2 yards per carry).

Luke Gorzinski led with a game-high 125 yards on 15 carries (8.3 yards per carry) and a touchdown.

Colon/Powers North Central footballColon (11-2) started drives deep in its own territory early on, and were forced to punt. Their average field position to start a drive was their own 27-yard line.

Holding the Magi deep in their territory meant the Jets had a short field for most of the day, leading to a quick succession of scores. North Central had 369 yards of total offense in the first half alone.

Powers North Central rushed for 236 yards on 20 carries with four TDs in the first half and led 49-0.

North Central executed as efficiently as it had all season. The Jets moved the chains all game while their defense prevented Colon's offense from doing the same.

Gorzinski had two sacks and 10 tackles. Drew Webber had six tackles. Caden Tietz, Drew Allgeyer and Lane Nehring each had a sack. Owen Eichmeier had an interception.

Tucker Lafler had 11 tackles to lead Colon's defense. Owen Wilson had eight and Kaleb Johnson had six.

"They're so competitive with one another — it's our depth" Leo Gorzinski said of the defense. "We've got so many kids that are the same caliber, same type of athlete. So day in and day out they're fighting for every single position. They want to show Coach 'l caught it over so-and-so, tackle over so-and-so.’"

Saturday was the Magi's second Finals appearance in three seasons after winning the 2019 Division 1 championship against Suttons Bay. The Magi lost in the Regional Finals in 2020 to Portland St. Patrick, which then lost to the Jets in the Final.

Hattan said there were naysayers even within Colon as the team made its playoff run. That, and falling a game short of a championship, is a motivator for next year, he said.

"Nobody expected us to be here. Even some people in our community were 'It's a rebuilding year,'” he said. "We lost, we only had two returning starters on offense, two returning starters on defense. Nobody expected us to be here. We return a lot of players (next season). We graduate like six seniors, three of them that were starters. We have some holes to replace, but we return a lot of kids. Now, this is motivation for some of our guys to get bigger, faster, stronger.

"They understand where they’ve got to work now to bring us back here and get to the next step, which is winning the state championship."

Click for the full box score.

PHOTOS (Top) Powers North Central’s Wyatt Raab (17) celebrates a touchdown during Saturday’s Division 2 Final at Superior Dome. (Middle) Colon’s Kodey Dovey (5) works to elude the Jets’ Carter Tietz (32). (Photos by Cara Kamps. Click for more.)