Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Hudson Rides Dominating Defense to Lock Down Division 8 Title

By Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com

November 26, 2021

DETROIT – For a team not used to giving up points – or yards, for that matter – it would have been easy Friday for Hudson to make some big changes at halftime to slow down a Beal City offense that had found success through the passing game.  

But the Tigers – who entered the MHSAA Division 8 Final having allowed 107.7 yards and less than a touchdown per game through the Semifinals – didn’t stray from the gameplan. 

“Honestly, (the adjustment was) just keep playing,” Hudson coach Dan Rogers said. “They did a great job, their line, we couldn’t get pressure on the quarterback. He could get out on the edge and we struggled getting to him. That made us cover a lot longer than we want to, so we were trying to get to the quarterback a little bit more, keep the receivers in front of us and make plays on the football.” 

It worked, as Hudson smothered Beal City in the second half, allowing just 17 yards over the final 24 minutes of its 14-7 victory at Ford Field to claim its second Finals title. 

“I can’t even describe it yet; it hasn’t really hit me yet,” said Hudson senior running back and safety Bronson Marry, who had a crucial late-game interception. “I’m just waiting to walk out of the locker room and find our families. It’s going to (hit like) a brick wall.” 

While Hudson (14-0) never led by more than one score, Beal City never threatened to overcome it, spending the entirety of the second half offensively on its own side of the field. The Aggies’ five second-half possessions went for 4, -6, 13, 1 and 5 yards, and totaled 5 minutes and 29 seconds.  

A fumble, an interception and downs ended the last three drives, with Nick Kopin breaking up the final Beal City pass attempt with 1:51 to play, sealing the game. It was a fitting end to Kopin’s big day, as he also had forced a fumble earlier in the fourth quarter and rushed for 131 yards and both of Hudson’s touchdowns. 

“It’s amazing,” Kopin said. “Obviously, I’m going to credit all my runs to our offensive line and our play-calling by coach (Jeremy) Beal. It set up really good cutbacks, and they were blocking real well. Defensively, credit to (Coach Rogers), he’s very strict on us reading our keys and doing our jobs. I think all of us, including myself, just did that, and the game turned out in our favor.” 

Hudson/Beal City footballKopin’s second score, a 2-yard run, came with 6:58 to play and put the Tigers up 14-7. The two-point pass was no good, however, keeping Beal City within a touchdown. The Aggies received a further boost with the return of quarterback Hunter Miles, who had been injured midway through the third quarter, but Hudson’s defense didn’t allow for a storybook comeback. 

“Hunter Miles is Hunter Miles; he’s a warrior,” Beal City coach Brad Gross said. “That’s Hunter Miles. Ankle, ribs, everything else (was hurt). We have a lot of guys dinged up. Cade Block’s had a (injured) shoulder that he’s been playing with for three weeks. Wade Wilson has a broken hand that he played the whole game with. We’re just banged up. We have a bunch of warriors. That’s why we’re here.” 

Miles had more success in the first half, mostly on the strength of a pair of big pass plays to Carter Fussman. The first was a 53-yard touchdown pass late in the first quarter. Miles rolled to his right before finding Fussman open near the 10-yard line.  

The second was a 56-yard throw and catch on the penultimate play of the first half, which came immediately after Hudson had taken an 8-7 lead on a 2-yard run from Kopin and a two-point conversion pass from Anthony Arredondo to Ambrose Horwath. The big pass play ended with Fussman being hauled down by Horwath at the Hudson 7-yard line with four seconds left in the half.  

That tackle wound up being enormous, as an incomplete pass on the next play ended the half with Hudson still in the lead. 

“It probably made the conversation at halftime better,” Rogers said. “It was a huge tackle. That’s what we talk about: You just have to keep playing. They’re going to make plays, things are going to happen, and it would have been just as easy to hang your head and he runs into the end zone. Our kids don’t do that, and Ambrose, he made a play, and that’s what we had to have.” 

Hudson’s offense had success on the ground, rushing for 282 yards, but strong red zone defense from the Aggies kept them in the game. All five of Hudson’s second half drives – excluding the final one, which consisted of three kneel downs – ended at least within the Beal City 35, but just one led to a score. 

“You have to give credit to Beal City, too,” Rogers said. “When we got down there, they stiffened up defensively and took all the inside runs away. Unfortunately, we weren’t able to score and it kept the game close.” 

Payton Rogers added 62 yards on the ground for Hudson, while Horwath hauled in the lone completed pass for the Tigers, a 17-yard catch from Easten Strodtman that converted a 3rd-and-long on the Tigers’ fourth-quarter touchdown drive. Kopin led the Hudson defense with six tackles, while Strodtman and Ethan Harris each recorded a sack. 

Fussman led the Beal City (12-2) offense with two catches for 109 yards, while Miles finished with 128 yards through the air – all in the first half. Josh Wilson recorded 13 tackles to lead the Beal City defense, while Miles had eight. 

Click for the full box score.

PHOTOS (Top) Hudson’s Easten Strodtman brings down Beal City quarterback Jack Fussman during Friday’s Division 8 Final. (Middle) The Tigers’ Ambrose Horwath (10) tries to get a hand on the ball with the Aggies’ Carter Fussman (2) and Jack Fussman defending. (Photos by Hockey Weekly Action Photos.)