Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Challenges Conquered, Resilient P-W Raises Title Trophy Again

By Scott DeCamp
Special for MHSAA.com

November 27, 2021

DETROIT – The 11 on the field for Pewamo-Westphalia’s football team may have looked different at any given time this season because of mounting injuries, but no worries for the Pirates.

They just kept playing. Consequently, they continue to add MHSAA Finals hardware to the trophy case.

In a defensive battle of unbeatens and mirror images, senior Dak Ewalt’s 35-yard touchdown burst with 5:50 remaining lifted perennial power P-W to a 14-10 victory over first-time Finals qualifier Lawton in the MHSAA Division 7 title game Saturday at Ford Field. It was the fourth title in six years for the Pirates.

“Just the resiliency that this group had. There were so many times this year when we could have broke, but they just seemed to get stronger,” said P-W coach Jeremy Miller, who improved to 105-9 in nine seasons at the helm.

“I can’t really explain it, but it just makes you proud as a coach to see them get through that.”

P-W capped its third 14-0 season in six years. The Pirates added to their trophy case, which already features awards from 2016, 2017 and 2019 championships, plus runner-up finishes in 2011 and 2015.

It definitely wasn’t easy this season, however. A number of key players missed significant time with injuries. For example, Ewalt was sidelined by a broken arm at the start of the season and missed last week’s 28-21 Semifinal victory over Traverse City St. Francis because of a concussion.

When the speedy 5-foot-9, 180-pound Ewalt got the call Saturday, he was ready. 

After Lawton (13-1) took a 10-7 lead in the hard-fought game on senior Ethan O’Donnell’s 43-yard field goal with 10:06 left – the fifth-longest field goal in 11-Player Finals history – Ewalt and the Pirates answered. He took a dive handoff and sprinted untouched for what proved to be the winning TD.

“It meant a lot, coming here together, duking it out with a really good team over there,” said Ewalt, who finished with a game-high 61 yards on eight carries. “Just a really heart-felt moment – couldn’t believe it.”

Lawton coach Wade Waldrup, who is 30-4 in four seasons, shouldered the blame for having the Blue Devils in the wrong defensive scheme on P-W’s game-winning TD.

Miller believed that eventually P-W would find a crease, and the Pirates did.

Division 7 Football Final“I know for a while it looked like we were just banging into a brick wall, but they were bringing so many guys, we thought if we could find that crease, then he’d be gone,” Miller said. “Dax’s a tremendous runner. This guy’s put in a ton of work in the weight room, and I’m so happy to see him break to that next level because I knew once he got there, he was gone.”

It took a while for Lawton to gets its footing in the game. The Blue Devils exhibited some early jitters. 

They fumbled on the game’s first play from scrimmage. Three plays later, P-W senior quarterback Cam Cook scored on a 3-yard keeper around right end to stake the Pirates to a 7-0 lead less than two minutes into the contest. 

P-W stayed in attack mode, as the Pirates recovered an onside kick. They drove into the red zone, but Lawton’s defense tightened and the Blue Devils settled into the flow of the game.

It was a brand-new game with 1:13 left in the half, when Lawton senior QB Landon Motter hit junior Luke Leighton on a 41-yard strike down the sideline to knot the score at 7.

“You watched the game, it took us about 5 seconds to get over it,” Waldrup said. “We had the long pass (34 yards from P-W’s Cook to Brock Thelen, setting up Cook’s TD) and we had the fumble, and that was it. From that point on, I would say (that) Pewamo would say we played them even except for one play at the end of the game.”

P-W finished with a 240-204 edge in total offense, including a 139-86 advantage in rushing yards. Seniors Ashtin Wirth (fumble recovery) and Landon Nurenberg led the Pirates defense with eight tackles apiece.

Lawton senior all-stater Jake Rueff, who entered with a state-leading 49 total TDs (46 rushing), managed only 50 yards on 16 carries. He closed his spectacular season with 2,367 yards on the ground.

Motter finished the game 8-of-17 passing for 118 yards with one interception. Senior Drew Stephayn paced Lawton’s defense with a game-high 10 stops, while junior Carter Cosby had nine tackles and a pick.

Lawton’s run to Ford Field was a long time in the making. Seven seniors had started on the varsity team since their sophomore seasons. The Blue Devils put their small southwestern Michigan town on the map and captivated the community.

“It’s legendary. I mean, Lawton’s never seen anything like it,” Motter said with red eyes during the postgame press conference. “We haven’t even won a District title before this year, and then we won a District and then we went on to win a Regional and a Semifinal, and here we are.”

And here are the Pirates – hoisting another state-title trophy.

There were plenty of challenges for P-W, which was saddled by injuries all season long. In the third game, senior back Tanner Wirth – an all-stater as a sophomore – was lost to injury. In consecutive weeks, Cook and Thelen were injured. Connor Pohl and Cade Stump also suffered injuries. 

Miller noted that many of his team’s injuries happened in freakish ways.

“It’s a next-man-up thing. These guys all train, and they’ve all got to be ready – they know that,” Miller said. “Being a small school, you know, if somebody goes out, we’re not really deep. They just do a great job being ready.”

Cook suffered a knee injury in Week 5 that he thought might cost him the season. He returned in last week’s victory over St. Francis and split reps with junior Troy Wertman.

For the Cook and Pirates, it was all about being ready when your number is called. On Saturday, Cook scored the game’s first TD, and he kept the Blue Devils defense honest by going 6-of-15 passing for 101 yards with one pick.

“Just going down with an injury, it was really hard for me in my senior year,” Cook said, “and to fight back, rehab back into this position, it’s just amazing to come out like this.”

Click for the full box score.

PHOTO (Top) Pewamo-Westphalia’s Dak Ewalt celebrates his fourth-quarter score that proved the game winner Saturday. (Middle) The Pirates’ Troy Wertman (17) looks to elude Lawton’s Kallon Motter (8) and Carter Cosby (2). (Photos by Hockey Weekly Action Photos.)