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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Martin’s Gavin Meyers (7) breaks through a gap in the Gobles defense Friday.

1st & Goal: 2024 Playoffs Week 1 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

November 4, 2024

The ability to play another day obviously is the best reward for 288 teams that qualify for the MHSAA Football Playoffs.

MI Student AidBut another of the greatest gifts is the chance to make up for a missed opportunity from the regular season.

We highlight below 40 of our 144 first-round games from this past weekend. Of those 40, 15 were rematches – and of those rematches, nine were won the second time by the team that lost the first.

11-Player Division 1

HEADLINER Grandville 24, Rockford 14 For the second-straight season, Grandville (6-4) opened the playoffs with a win – and this time with its first over the Rams since 2019. Rockford (7-3) had defeated Grandville 37-20 in Week 3, but with Tank Terry scoring twice during the third quarter the Bulldogs brought a lead into the second half of this rematch and never trailed again. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

District Digest Hudsonville 25, East Kentwood 23 On the other side for Grandville in their District bracket, Ottawa-Kent Conference Red champion Hudsonville (9-1) held off a strong challenge from the Falcons (5-5) after having defeated them 35-6 in their Week 5 meeting. Oxford 21, Davison 14 Oxford (7-3) went on the road, and coming off a Week 9 loss, to win its first playoff game since 2021 and guarantee its best record since 2018 – when the Wildcats also opened the playoffs with a win over Davison (7-3). Clarkston 34, Lake Orion 16 The Wolves (7-3) are surging with five wins over their last six gams and this avenging their only loss during that string, a 20-13 defeat to the Dragons (6-4) in Week 7.

11-Player Division 2

HEADLINER Byron Center 38, Grand Rapids Northview 17 Byron Center (9-1) just missed on a league championship this fall but will play for a second-straight District title after pulling away to hand O-K Black champion Northview (9-1) its only loss this fall. The Bulldogs earned a rematch this week with O-K Green rival Muskegon Mona Shores, which won their Week 4 meeting 14-12. Northview closed its first winning season since 2019 with more victories than the last two combined. Click for more from FOX 17.

District Digest Grosse Pointe South 27, Roseville 26 South (10-0) at one point led 24-6 and held on to reach double-digit wins for the first time – and after going 9-2 a year ago and losing to Roseville (7-3) in a District Final, 24-17. Mattawan 27, Lansing Everett 21 Mattawan (7-3) is enjoying its winningest season since 2017, with this its first playoff victory since 2012. Everett (6-4) improved a win from a year ago to tie its highest total since 2014. Farmington 39, White Lake Lakeland 13 Farmington (7-3) earned its first playoff win since 2019 – continuing a rebound from 2-7 a year ago – and defeated a Lakeland team (6-4) that made the playoffs for the seventh time over the last eight seasons.

11-Player Division 3

HEADLINER Linden 42, Fenton 14 Linden (5-5) opened this season 0-2 and finished the regular season with two defeats and three over its last four games. But all of that may have paid off with this win to avenge a 24-21 Week 6 loss to the Tigers (7-3) that ended up deciding the Flint Metro League Stripes championship. That loss to Fenton was one of four three-point heartbreakers the Eagles endured this fall, but they will play for a District title this week. Click for more from the Tri-County Times.

District Digest Riverview 22, Trenton 21 Riverview quarterback Lucas Thompson put his team ahead to stay with a 2-point conversion run with 20 seconds to play, giving the Pirates (9-1) a close playoff win over Trenton for the second-straight season after they defeated the Trojans (6-4) by two in a District opener a year ago. Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 7, East Grand Rapids 0 The reigning Division 3 champion Rangers (8-2) followed up a 24-0 win over EGR in Week 9 by just getting past the Pioneers (5-5) again. Walled Lake Western 49, Garden City 7 The Warriors (10-0) are expected to be top contenders in this division and reached 10 wins for the second straight season, but Garden City (7-3) deserves recognition as well for completing its winningest campaign since 2000.

11-Player Division 4

HEADLINER Dearborn Divine Child 42, Madison Heights Lamphere 6 Lamphere (8-2) entered the postseason No. 3 in the coaches poll and completed its third eight-win season over the last five. But Divine Child will play on after freshman quarterback Drew Sheridan threw five touchdown passes to send the Falcons (7-3) into a District Final matchup with reigning Division 4 champion Harper Woods. Click for more from the Dearborn Press & Guide.

District Digest Edwardsburg 29, Battle Creek Harper Creek 8 Edwardsburg (7-3) has shown plenty of times over the last 15 years why it is a scary playoff opponent, and this became another example as Harper Creek (8-2) entered the weekend coming off a league title and finished with its best record since 2017.  Niles 42, Paw Paw 14 The two teams that finished ahead of Edwardsburg in the Wolverine Conference met for the second week in a row, with Niles (9-1) adding to its 21-0 win from Week 9 to end Paw Paw’s season at 8-2. Harper Woods 46, Redford Union 6 Harper Woods (7-3) entered the playoffs ranked No. 5 by the coaches, and Redford Union (8-2) was No. 2 and also had lost to the Pioneers in their season opener 43-21.

11-Player Division 5

HEADLINER Gladwin 18, Kingsford 15 When a team moves to 7-3 with all three of its losses to league champions, it’s difficult to call it a stunner. But Gladwin can claim it as Kingsford (9-1) also was a league champion, undefeated and ranked No. 3 entering this District Semifinal. Eric Roggow’s fourth-quarter field goal was the decider for the Flying Gs. Click for more from the Bay City Times.

District Digest Ogemaw Heights 21, Clare 13 Just as the Week 5 matchup went to Ogemaw Heights, 41-34, so too did the rematch between the Jack Pine Conference Division 1 co-champions. Clare finished 7-3 for the second-straight year after completing its 19th-straight winning regular season. Romulus 26, Detroit Lincoln-King 24 Romulus (5-5) earned its first playoff win since 2016, and in doing so handed Lincoln-King (9-1) its only loss of what was by far the most successful season of its three-year varsity history. Lincoln-King was 0-9 two seasons ago and 3-6 last fall. Flat Rock 40, Detroit Denby 22 Flat Rock (8-2) advanced by defeating a league title winner in Detroit Public School League Gold co-champion Denby (6-4), putting the Rams in position to play for a third-straight District trophy.

11-Player Division 6

HEADLINER Ovid-Elsie 44, Almont 21 The Mid-Michigan Activities Conference saw its undefeated champion fall (see below) but its runner-up down another undefeated league title winner as Ovid-Elsie handed No. 2 Almont its only loss. This was a rematch of a 2023 Semifinal won by the Raiders 45-21, but this time the Marauders put up their most points since mid-September and the most Blue Water Area Conference champ Almont (9-1) had given up in a game since 2021. Click for more from Lansing State Journal.

District Digest Lansing Catholic 36, Chesaning 29 The Cougars (7-3) have won at least one playoff game now eight seasons in a row, and this one came against MMAC champion Chesaning (9-1) and a defense that otherwise gave up just 12 points per game this fall. Detroit Central 34, Detroit Edison 16 Central (7-3) shared the PSL Gold title with Denby and then won the PSL Gold City championship, and this victory over No. 9 Edison (6-4) ranks right up there as well. Constantine 39, Parchment 14 Just because Constantine (7-3) found itself outside a league title race this fall for the first time in a while doesn’t mean the Falcons were going to go quietly – and they made some serious noise in avenging a 51-30 loss to Parchment (7-3) from Week 7.

Clarkston’s Griffin Boman (0) wraps up Lake Orion’s Jayden Borrero.

11-Player Division 7

HEADLINER Union City 42, Hanover-Horton 13 Big 8 Conference champ Union City (9-1) has scored nearly 36 points per game during its winningest season since 2011, and this was the Chargers’ fourth time reaching 42 as they bounced back from a Week 9 loss to Buchanan. Hanover-Horton (8-2) closed this season with two losses to teams a combined 18-2 but must be celebrated for its best showing since 2014, a run which included a Cascades Conference West title. Click for more from the Coldwater Daily Reporter.

District Digest Clinton 38, Ottawa Lake Whiteford 32 The former Tri-County Conference rivals met for the first time since 2019, Clinton’s last season in the TCC, and this time the Redwolves (7-3) came back from two straight losses to end the regular season to end Whiteford’s fall at 5-5. Traverse City St. Francis 41, Charlevoix 16 The Gladiators (7-3) won this matchup of Northern Michigan Football League divisional champions, having also defeated the Rayders (6-4) in the season opener 67-22. McBain 49, Harrison 6 McBain (9-1) bounced back from a Week 9 loss to reach a second-straight District Final. Harrison (7-3) finished this fall with three straight defeats to playoff teams but with its best record since 2015 and after going 2-7 both of the last two seasons.

11-Player Division 8

HEADLINER Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 21, Saginaw Nouvel Catholic Central 20 These neighbors have played one-point games three of the last five seasons, and Nouvel (8-2) actually won their regular-season meeting in Week 4, 23-14, and led this time 6-0 into the third quarter. But MLS (7-3) found its stride thereafter to earn its second trip to the District Finals in three seasons. Click for more from the Saginaw News.

District Digest Saugatuck 24, White Pigeon 22 After having three of its last four seasons ended by White Pigeon (8-2) in the playoffs, Saugatuck advanced to a second-straight District Final by winning the closest game for both this fall. Beal City 47, Frankfort 0 Beal City (8-2) faced Frankfort (7-3) in a playoff opener for the second-straight season, adding this win to last year’s 42-7 victory that started a Semifinal run. Harbor Beach 35, Ubly 0 The Pirates (10-0) posted their second-straight shutout and fifth of the season in ending this year’s run and a six-game winning streak for last fall’s Division 8 champion Bearcats (6-4).

Ishpeming's Caden Luoma breaks away from Norway's Carter Cazzola (43) and Keith Burar, Jr. (54).

8-Player Division 1

HEADLINER Martin 52, Gobles 22 The two-time reigning champion Clippers appear to be in playoff form again, as this avenged a 20-14 loss to Gobles from just three weeks earlier. This made it two seasons in a row that Martin (9-1) avenged a regular-season loss to the Tigers (9-1). The Clippers broke away with 30 second-half points to Gobles’ eight. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Regional Roundup Mendon 58, Climax-Scotts 50 Mendon’s Owen Gorham ran for 231 yards and five touchdowns, the last a four-yarder with three seconds to play followed by his 2-point conversion to push the Hornets (9-1) past Climax-Scotts just two weeks after losing to the Panthers (8-2) 46-44. Kingston 16, Fulton 14 The Cardinals (8-2) earned a rematch with rival Deckerville by handing the Pirates (8-2) just their second loss of their winningest season since 2010 in 11-player. Ishpeming 44, Norway 38 The Hematites’ first run into an 8-player bracket is off to the right start, with this win over the Knights (7-3) earning Ishpeming (6-2) a rematch with Week 4 opponent Pickford.

8-Player Division 2

HEADLINER Onekama 22, Marion 20 Both finalists for last season’s Division 2 championship were eliminated from this year’s bracket, and we’ll start with the reigning runner-up Marion (8-2) – which had defeated Onekama 44-8 in Week 2. The Eagles ended their season with two losses by a combined six points. But the Portagers improved to 9-1, one more win than their last four seasons’ totals combined. Click for more from the Manistee News Advocate.

Regional Roundup Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 24, Grand Rapids Sacred Heart 21 After debuting in varsity play last season with a win by forfeit and two losses, Grand Rapids Sacred Heart (9-1) established itself with a perfect regular season and No. 1 ranking heading into this playoffs. But Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (7-3) had seen plenty of top competition with its three losses to teams that all finished the regular season 8-1. Morrice 28, Portland St. Patrick 22 Two of those one-loss teams that had defeated MP Sacred Heart met on the other side of the bracket, with Morrice (9-1) avenging a 29-12 Week 4 defeat to the Shamrocks (8-2). Britton Deerfield 58, Adrian Lenawee Christian 15 The Patriots (9-1) reached nine wins for the second time in four seasons – and after finishing just 2-7 a year ago – completing a 2024 sweep of the 2023 Division 2 champion Cougars (4-6).

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PHOTOS (Top) Martin’s Gavin Meyers (7) breaks through a gap in the Gobles defense Friday. (Middle) Clarkston’s Griffin Boman (0) wraps up Lake Orion’s Jayden Borrero. (Below) Ishpeming's Caden Luoma breaks away from Norway's Carter Cazzola (43) and Keith Burar, Jr. (54). (Top photo by Gary Shook. Clarkston/Lake Orion photo by Terry Lyons. Ishpeming/Norway photo by Cara Kamps.)