Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Ubly Sends Out Retiring Coach with Program's 1st Finals Win in D8 Rematch

By Scott DeCamp
Special for MHSAA.com

November 25, 2023

DETROIT – You could not have written a better script for Ubly’s football program and its tight-knit Thumb community Saturday at Ford Field.

The Bearcats captured their first Finals championship, avenged last year’s title-game loss to Ottawa Lake Whiteford, and sent head coach Eric Sweeney into retirement a champion with a 21-6 victory over the Bobcats in the Division 8 title game.

Might Sweeney consider an encore and coach another year?

“No!” Sweeney quickly responded with conviction, prompting laughter among attendees of the press conference and even his own players before adding another “no.”

Sweeney served as Ubly’s head varsity coach for only four seasons, but he compiled a 48-5 overall record. He led the Bearcats to the top of the mountain after the program had made several title pursuits prior to Saturday, including a last year’s which ended with a 26-20 loss to Whiteford and a 2020 Finals run that concluded with a 22-0 defeat to Centreville.

“You know, I’m done. I’ve coached for 23 years at every level there is. No, this makes it easier to walk away,” Sweeney said. “I loved coaching all these years. I got to coach these guys (referring to his players at the press conference) for four years at the varsity level. I coached them in seventh-grade basketball. I know these kids pretty good.

“My kids are all well out of high school, and there’s just other things I want to do in life. I’m just proud I’m leaving the program in the condition that it is.”

It may be impossible to leave it better than Sweeney and the Bearcats did Saturday and throughout their perfect journey in 2023.

The Bearcats’ Seth Maurer (30) follows teammate Canden Peruski’s block into a small gap in the Whiteford defense.Ubly completed this run with a 14-0 record and did it the Bearcat way – with physicality at the point of attack, a clock-grinding, ball-control offense; and a very stingy defense. The Bearcats outscored their opponents this season by a combined 596-134 margin.

“It means a lot. Like, last year, we lost here and we felt terrible for the seniors, the way we went out, basically on a last-second thing,” said Ubly senior Evan Peruski, who also started at quarterback in the Bearcats’ 2022 and 2020 Finals losses. 

“It means everything. I mean, a lot of us up here, we’re friends with kids that played 10, 20 years ago. I saw about 30 of them in the crowd, people I knew that played 20, 30 years ago. They’re there supporting us.”

Whiteford, which was seeking its third Division 8 title since 2017, saw a 27-game winning streak end and closed the season with a 13-1 record – a tough conclusion to a tremendous two-year run.

“I’ve been coaching football a long time. I don’t think I’ve ever had an experience of a senior group like these guys that we have,” said Todd Thieken, who finished his second season as Whiteford’s head coach but has been in the game since the late 1980s with various stops in Michigan and Ohio.

“A couple of seniors came up to me after the game and they said, ‘I’m sorry, coach.’ I just said to them, ‘I’m just sorry that I don’t ever get to coach you again,’” Thieken added, getting a bit choked up. “I’m still going to be around and in their lives and making sure that they continue to get through school and be successful young men.”

Well-executing Ubly and Whiteford squads engaged in a game of keep-away, both aiming to possess the football and keep it out of the opponent’s hands.

Ubly won that battle, possessing the ball for nearly a 2-to-1 margin (31:51-16:09). The Bearcats nearly doubled up the Bobcats in total offense as well, 310-165, led by an overwhelming advantage in rushing yardage (281-60).

Senior Seth Maurer led Ubly with 138 yards on 27 carries, highlighted by his 4-yard touchdown run that drew the teams even with 1:31 left in the first half before senior Brett Mueller hammered through the ensuing PAT for a 7-6 edge.

Whiteford had struck first in the contest. Ubly’s game-opening, 16-play, 79-yard drive that consumed 8:01 of the clock was stopped just shy of the goal line after a review determined Peruski’s knee was down inside the 1. Whiteford then marched 99 yards the other way and got into the end zone on a 4-yard scoring pass from freshman Tre Eitniear to senior Hunter DeBarr. The two-point conversion pass failed, but the Bobcats led 6-0 with 8:11 left in the second quarter.

Mitchell Foote (76) brings down the Bobcats’ Ryin Ruddy.Ubly’s defense settled in after that, allowing only 66 yards the rest of the way.

Meanwhile, Ubly’s offense continued to move the ball. The Bearcats extended their lead to 14-6 on Peruski’s 11-yard TD pass to senior Ryan Learman on 4th-and-goal from the 11. Junior Luke Volmering all but put the game away with his 3-yard scoring run with 6:13 remaining.

“I think our line does a great job. The big fella here (pointing to 6-foot-3, 270-pound senior lineman Mitchell Foote) had a heck of a game today,” Sweeney said. “When you’re running our offense, it’s an offensive line game. I’m an offensive line coach, so you know, it’s kind of my kind of game. I’m not smart enough for all this fancy passing stuff. 

“We’ve got to play the game at the line of scrimmage, and I thought defensively our D-line made some big plays as it went on and the secondary did a great job, too. … The game was won at the line of scrimmage.”

Peruski did enough to keep Whiteford’s defense honest. He ran six times for 32 yards and completed 2 of 3 passes for 29 yards. Volmering ran 16 times for 77 yards. Ubly senior Canden Peruski led the defense with 11 tackles.

Whiteford senior Jake Iott was all over the field, registering 18 tackles. Bobcats senior Kolby Masserant made 13 stops, while senior teammate Ryin Ruddy notched 11 tackles. Eitniear was 6-of-11 passing for 78 yards, while Ruddy went 3-of-4 for 27 yards. Iott led his team on the ground with 37 yards on 12 carries.

“I’m grateful for the opportunity. You know, I’ve been starting for four years on varsity,” DeBarr said. “I’m glad the coaches and some of my teammates could make me a better player for those four years. We won a lot of big games and, you know, you lose a couple of big games. It was fun.”

Saturday marked Ubly’s fourth Finals appearance. The Bearcats also had lost to Traverse City St. Francis in the Division 7 Final in 2008.

Sweeney attributed much of Ubly’s success over the past couple of decades to his cousin, former head coach Bill Sweeney. The Bearcats have won 10 Regional titles over the last 20 years.

Eric Sweeney also credited the unwavering support of Ubly’s community and that of the Bearcats’ rival schools along the way. Ubly spent the week practicing indoors at the Laker Legacy Center of rival Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port.

“It’s not as much for me personally. It’s for our community,” Sweeney said. “The support we get from the Thumb area is unreal. It just means a lot.”

Said Foote: “It just means the world. Best coach I’ve ever had. He’s always pushed us. (They) just had to make him go out with a state championship. It would be a shame to not give him one.”

Click for the full box score.

PHOTOS (Top) Ubly coach Eric Sweeney presents the Division 8 championship trophy to his team Saturday morning at Ford Field. (Middle) The Bearcats’ Seth Maurer (30) follows teammate Canden Peruski’s block into a small gap in the Whiteford defense. (Below) Mitchell Foote (76) brings down the Bobcats’ Ryin Ruddy. (Photos by Hockey Weekly Action Photos.)