Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

1st & Goal: 2022 Week 1 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

August 30, 2022

Another slate of season openers meant another fresh start for more than 600 varsity football teams across Michigan this past weekend.

MI Student AidAnd plenty made it count.

Three reigning MHSAA champions and three more 2021 Finals runners-up were among those starting out 0-1 this fall, while Lansing Waverly, Armada, Allegan and Litchfield were among many who celebrated what they hope will be just the start of special seasons to come.

See below for many of the most notable results from all over Michigan as we take a glance at Week 1.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Davison 28, Clarkston 21 After opening with a three-point loss to Clarkston last season and then missing the playoffs, Davison has switched lanes on the first and set itself up well in the early going for the second. The Cardinals made some big plays late to get past the Wolves this time during the Battle at the Big House at University of Michigan. Click for more from the Flint Journal.

Watch list Fenton 46, Midland Dow 7 The Tigers are coming off their first sub-.500 season since 2007, but that might be a distant memory soon if this win over the Division 2 Chargers is an indication.

On the move Montrose 27, Clarkston Everest Collegiate 0 Everest averaged 38 points per game last season but couldn’t get on track against a Rams defense that had two shutouts a year ago. Frankenmuth 27, Goodrich 2 This might be a sign that a strong Frankenmuth defense from last season will be tough to deal with again. Midland 27, Cadillac 21 The Chemics, winners of two games last season, opened with a solid one over a Cadillac program that finished 9-3 a year ago.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 20, Detroit Catholic Central 16 This is the type of titanic opening-night matchup we anticipate all offseason, and Chippewa Valley came on strong at the end after trailing by 10 at halftime. The Big Reds also had won last season’s opener between the two. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press.

Watch list Armada 28, Marine City 27 Last year’s first winning record in a decade may have just been the start as the Tigers opened by edging last season’s Division 5 runner-up.

On the move Trenton 6, Chelsea 3 The Trojans reversed last year’s 40-0 loss to the eventual Division 4 champ. Redford Union 26, Pewamo-Westphalia 6 The Panthers also avenged a 2021 defeat to an eventual champion after falling to Division 7 winner P-W 33-6 a year ago. Southfield Arts & Technology 56, Detroit Cass Tech 54 The Warriors are seeking their first winning season since 2016 and should have plenty of momentum after avenging last season’s 49-22 loss to the Technicians.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Lansing Waverly 18, Lansing Catholic 7 This might be Waverly’s best win since clinching a playoff spot in 2012 – or even going back to defeating Grand Ledge in 2002. The Warriors gave up 33 points a game in winning only two last season, but shut down the reigning Division 6 champion Cougars in arguably the biggest upset in the state during Week 1. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list DeWitt 21, Haslett 14 Rivalry restored? It may be early to say that much, but this Battle at the Big House – and first matchup of these two past rivals since 2017 – featured a shutout by the Panthers’ defense but two return touchdowns by the Vikings’ Nakai Amachree.

On the move New Lothrop 12, Jackson Lumen Christi 7 The Hornets won arguably the most anticipated small-school opener in the state, avenging last season’s 27-14 loss to the Titans – who went on to make the Division 7 Semifinals. Brighton 35, Dearborn Fordson 14 Both are likely contenders in their respective divisions of the Kensington Lakes Activities Association, Brighton especially making some noise with this win after finishing 4-5 a year ago. East Lansing 21, Portage Central 15 This was switched late from an East Lansing home game to a trip to Portage, but the Trojans made the best of it against a Mustangs team that won nine games in 2021.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Traverse City Central 49, St. Joseph 28 The Trojans traveled to Ferris State for their first game since finishing Division 2 runner-up last fall at Ford Field, and defeated a St. Joseph program that reached the Division 3 Semifinals last season. The win might prove especially notable with Lapeer and Davison up next and then a first-time run through the newly-configured Saginaw Valley League. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Watch list Gaylord 15, Lake Fenton 14 Gaylord had won a combined five games over the last three seasons, and this story gets better with Lake Fenton coming off a nine-win campaign.

On the move Kingsley 40, McBain 0 The Stags are on an impressive four-year run and looking to make it five while opening in a big way against another regular playoff qualifier. Traverse City West 7, Marquette 0 The Titans avenged last season’s 28-17 loss in a rematch of 2021 playoff teams. Cheboygan 52, Lake City 26 The Chiefs are seeking their first winning season since 2013, and this is a strong start after the team went from zero wins in 2020 to three a year ago.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Reading 33, White Pigeon 14 Expectations are high for both of these teams as Reading entered the season ranked No. 5 in Division 8 with White Pigeon right there at No. 7. The Rangers posted notable showings on both sides of the ball in this one after averaging 26 points per game and giving up 16 per game last year.  Click for more from the Hillsdale Daily News.

Watch list Hillsdale 35, Jonesville 12 The Hornets have tough tasks with Berrien Springs and Hudson up next but should enjoy some added spark after breaking Jonesville’s 13-game regular-season winning streak.

On the move Carleton Airport 35, Ida 32 The Jets avenged last season’s season-opening 43-26 loss as they seek a first winning record since 2019. Manchester 20, Whitmore Lake 6 The Flying Dutchmen are seeking their first winning season since 2015, and opened this one by defeating a 2021 playoff qualifier. Ottawa Lake Whiteford 36, Blissfield 20 It’s a new era but familiar start at Whiteford, as the Bobcats earned first-year head coach and former assistant Todd Thieken his first varsity win with the program.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Battle Creek Lakeview 28, Battle Creek Harper Creek 6 The Spartans ran their winning streak over Harper Creek to three with their best defensive showing in two years. That’s especially significant with one of the tougher Septembers in the state coming up – River Rouge next followed by four of the usual contenders in the Southwest Michigan Athletic Conference. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.

Watch list Centreville 20, Union City 14 The Bulldogs have been one of the state’s top small-school programs the last five seasons and opened with a win over a playoff qualifier from last fall.

On the move Portage Northern 41, Vicksburg 27 This should benefit both as Northern is a Division 2 team looking to bounce back this fall and Vicksburg in Division 4 won eight games a year ago. Buchanan 46, Saugatuck 20 The Bucks fell back in 2021 but could be bouncing back after defeating a Saugatuck program coming off a playoff berth. Plainwell 21, Otsego 7 The Trojans improved to 71-44-6 all-time against Otsego in a rivalry that goes back to 1896.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Houghton 14, Ishpeming Westwood 12 The Gremlins’ first win over Westwood since 2016 also avenged a 52-8 loss to the Patriots from a year ago and may have reshuffled the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper race right at the start. Houghton also is coming off its best season since 2013, while Westwood made the Regional Finals in Division 7 a year ago. Click for more from the Houghton Daily Mining Gazette.

Watch list Negaunee 19, Iron Mountain 14 The Miners avenged a 2021 loss to another West PAC Copper contender, adding another wrinkle as that conference gets rolling.

On the move St. Ignace 26, Tawas 6 The Saints are 1-0 for the first time since 2016 and after winning a combined three games over the last two seasons. Gladstone 42, Calumet 13 Gladstone ran its winning streak over Calumet to two, even more impressive this time as the Copper Kings are coming off a 9-3 campaign. Menominee 40, Marinette (Wis.) 6 The 116th game of this rivalry upped Menominee’s overall record against Marinette to 58-51-7.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Whitehall 54, Hudsonville Unity Christian 26 The Vikings have posted some impressive wins over the last two seasons as they’ve rejoined the elite in the West Michigan Conference. But from a statewide point of view, this victory is right up there with their best work. Unity Christian was last season’s Division 4 runner-up, and also averaged 57 points per game – making this another notable performance for a Whitehall defense that has given up only 13.6 points per game over the last two seasons. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

Watch list Grand Rapids West Catholic 28, Edwardsburg 20 The Falcons ended the Eddies’ 35-game regular-season winning streak by slowing an offense that averaged 49 points per game a year ago.

On the move Grandville 49, Grand Blanc 25 The Bulldogs should be contenders again in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red after this win over a 2021 Division 1 semifinalist. Allegan 55, Cassopolis 0 The Tigers haven’t won more than two games in a season since 2011 – but opened with a sizable victory over a program with eight straight playoff appearances (and nine counting 2020 when everyone made it). Grand Rapids South Christian 42, Grand Rapids Christian 7 The Sailors made it two opening-week wins over the Eagles in two seasons as they seek to contend again in the O-K Gold.

8-Player

HEADLINER Martin 30, Mendon 28 The Clippers were down 20-8 at halftime of a game that despite being played Week 1 could decide a league title. But they came all the way back to earn their third victory over the Hornets in three tries over the last two seasons. Click for more from the Sturgis Journal.

Watch list Pickford 28, Gaylord St. Mary 16 The Panthers won their second opener in a row over the Snowbirds and after both made the playoffs last season.

On the move Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian 65, Suttons Bay 19 The Mustangs handed Suttons Bay its first regular-season loss since 2018, also avenging a 30-12 defeat from last fall. Litchfield 34, Bellevue 24 The Terriers put an end to their 20-game winless streak that went back to 2019. Alcona 82, Mio 52 These two wasted no time putting together one of the highest-scoring 8-player games in MHSAA history.

Second Half’s weekly “1st & Goal” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTOS (Top) A Livonia Churchill defender wraps up a Plymouth ball carrier during Churchill’s 32-14 win over Plymouth at University of Michigan. (Middle) An Otsego ball carrier looks for an opening against Plainwell. (Top photo by Douglas Bargerstock; middle photo by Gary Shook.)