Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
1st & Goal: 2022 Week 2 Review
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
September 6, 2022
We don’t keep track of losing streaks at the MHSAA. But we’re plenty glad to celebrate teams after those streaks have been broken.
Holland West Ottawa and Litchfield surely are enjoying these first few weeks, as both have started the fall 2-0 after multiple seasons without a victory.
Theirs are among several potential turnaround stories beginning to be told, and we highlight more below as we review Week 2 across Michigan.
Bay & Thumb
HEADLINER Lapeer 56, Traverse City Central 42 The Lightning (2-0) scored first and impressively on the road against last season’s Division 2 runner-up. Quarterback Zak Olejniczak ran for a touchdown and threw for seven more, including four scoring passes to Connor Brown. Although Central (1-1) went over 40 points for the second week in a row, Lapeer’s defense was the difference during the fourth quarter with two interceptions and a fumble recovery. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Watch list Swartz Creek 36, Lake Fenton 14 The Dragons are 2-0 for the first time since 2018 and after starting 1-3 a year ago but still eventually making the playoffs. This win avenged a 13-0 loss to Lake Fenton (0-2) from last fall.
On the move Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 39, Cass City 12 The Lakers (2-0) have opened with two commanding wins as they head into Greater Thumb Conference West play, while Cass City is 1-1 heading into GTC East action. Standish-Sterling 31, Ithaca 27 The Panthers (2-0) trailed throughout the first half before making their move during the second to earn a one-score win over Ithaca (1-1) for the second-straight season. Marlette 38, Unionville-Sebewaing 12 Marlette (2-0) last played USA in a 2020 playoff opener, and the Red Raiders hadn’t come within 40 of the Patriots (0-2) two of the three times they’d faced each other over the last seven seasons.
Greater Detroit
HEADLINER Clarkston 62, Southfield Arts & Technology 56 Southfield A&T (1-1) is becoming must-see football this fall – and that’s a strong vote of confidence for Clarkston after the Wolves held on to move to 1-1. Warriors quarterback Isaiah Marshall is up to nine touchdowns passing and five rushing over two games, but Clarkston running back Ethan Clark ran for four scores as the Wolves put up the game’s last points during the final minute to prevail. Click for more from the Oakland Press.
Clarkston senior Mike Hein with the go-ahead touchdown with 25 seconds to go in the 4th quarter as the Wolves beat Southfield A&T 62-56 on Thursday.
Powered by @MIArmyGuard @themikehein8 @TheeJungle @ClarkstonWolves pic.twitter.com/bm1fTHPUDz
— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsmich) September 2, 2022
Watch list Birmingham Seaholm 21, Detroit U-D Jesuit 20 (OT) The Maples won one game a year ago, but are up to 2-0 after edging the Division 2 No. 6-ranked Cubs (1-1).
On the move Oxford 17, Birmingham Groves 14 On an emotion-filled night at Oxford, the Wildcats (1-1) opened their home schedule by defeating the No. 10 team in Division 2, sending the Falcons to 1-1. Detroit Catholic Central 44, Davison 34 The early hierarchy in Division 1 should see movement as Davison (1-1) was ranked No. 6 and DCC (1-1) was unranked before defeating the Cardinals for the second-straight season. Warren De La Salle Collegiate 49, Muskegon 16 These two have a combined seven appearances in MHSAA Finals over the last five seasons, which on its own to explains the heaviness of this matchup and significance of this win for the Pilots (2-0) over the Big Reds (1-1)
Mid-Michigan
HEADLINER DeWitt 39, Portland 34 This has become one of the best games every fall in the Lansing area – this time DeWitt entered No. 2 in Division 3 and Portland was No. 4 in Division 5 – and the 2022 chapter was another classic. The Panthers (2-0) won for the first time in three recent matchups with the Raiders (1-1) as Elliott Larner took a handoff and found Bryce Kurncz on a 22-yard halfback pass for the game-winning score with 14 seconds to play. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Watch list Durand 56, Montrose 52 The Railroaders have strung together three straight playoff seasons but have something extra to be excited about so far this fall. Durand (2-0) defeated Montrose (1-1) for the first time since 2009, perhaps the best win since the program’s turnaround got rolling after an 0-9 finish in 2017.
On the move East Lansing 28, Fenton 14 The Trojans (2-0) have loaded their nonleague slate again, and after posting one of Week 1’s most impressive debuts doubled up a Tigers team that also had opened in a big way. Mount Pleasant 51, Midland 29 The Oilers’ immediate schedule gets no easier with Cadillac and Traverse City Central over the next two weeks, but Mount Pleasant (2-0) has started as impressively as anyone in the Saginaw Valley League North as Midland (1-1) also was among the Week 1 high achievers. Williamston 22, Lansing Catholic 0 Although the Cougars (0-2) are off to a rough start, this remains a win over a reigning Finals champion for the Hornets (2-0).
Northern Lower Peninsula
HEADLINER Gaylord 17, Kingsley 16 If Gaylord’s Week 1 one-point win over Lake Fenton turned a few heads, the encore against Kingsley (1-1) should have all of northern Michigan taking notice. At 2-0, Gaylord already has won as many games as it did any of the last three seasons – but getting the second victory this fall over a Stags team that had six losses total over the last four seasons gives this story some statewide spark. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.
Watch list Traverse City St. Francis 42, Jackson Lumen Christi 35 A matchup of 2021 Division 7 semifinalists played out like one, with the Gladiators winning the fourth quarter to move to 2-0 while sending Lumen Christi to 0-2, but with those losses to the Nos. 1 and 2 teams in the statewide rankings.
On the move Alpena 18, Marquette 16 The Wildcats (1-1) were 2-14 over their last two seasons but could be in for some major improvement after avenging last season’s 49-14 loss to Marquette (0-2). Maple City Glen Lake 34, Oscoda 28 The Lakers (1-1) bounced back from a disappointing opener to win a game that could come into play as the Northern Michigan Football League Legacy standings sort out. The Owls (1-1) should still have a part to play too over the next six weeks. Elk Rapids 20, East Jordan 13 The Elks (2-0) had won a high of two games over the past three seasons, and they’ve equaled that already with this one over a Red Devils program that’s 0-2 but went 6-3 a year ago.
Southeast & Border
HEADLINER Hudson 22, Constantine 20 The Tigers (2-0) ran their overall winning streak to 16 with one of the best regular-season victories of the run. Hudson trailed by 20 points late in the third quarter before coming all the way back against a Constantine program that had won 15 straight regular-season games and remains ranked No. 6 in Division 6. Hudson, last season’s Division 8 champion, is No. 3 in Division 7. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.
Watch list Grosse Ile 21, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 14 The Red Devils (2-0) won just two games a year ago, and hadn’t defeated the Falcons (0-2) since 2018.
On the move Manchester 29, Addison 26 The Flying Dutchmen (2-0) followed up a solid win over Whitmore Lake in the opener by defeating three-time reigning Cascades Conference champion Addison (1-1) for the first time since 2016. Saline 35, Ann Arbor Huron 24 This matchup ended up deciding last season’s Southeastern Conference Red championship, and Saline (2-0) is off to the right start as it looks to repeat while Huron (0-2) is coming off losses against two potential Division 1 contenders. Hanover-Horton 27, Michigan Center 20 The Comets (1-1) have had a tough run over most of the last decade, but started Cascades play by defeating a Michigan Center team that’s 0-2 but made the Division 6 Semifinals last year.
Southwest Corridor
HEADLINER St. Joseph 41, Hudsonville Unity Christian 28 The Bears loaded their nonleague schedule with two opponents that finished the 2021 season at Ford Field. They opened by falling to last year’s Division 2 runner-up Traverse City Central, but came back from a double-digit deficit to claim this win over the reigning Division 4 runner-up. St. Joseph may be the favorite and is certain among the few entering Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference play, while Unity (0-2) should still contend as well in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Blue after opening with a pair of losses to top competition. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.
Watch list Kalamazoo Loy Norrix 8, Kalamazoo Central 7 The Knights (1-1) have struggled more than most over the last 10 seasons, but this was their first win since 2019 and first over rival Central since 2017.
On the move Kalamazoo United 33, Stevensville Lakeshore 27 The Titans (1-1) reversed last season’s 41-19 loss to Lakeshore (0-2) as it bounced back from a season-opening defeat to Berrien Springs. Niles 28, Buchanan 18 The Vikings (1-1) also bounced back from a season-opening loss to hand the Bucks (1-1) their first defeat. Schoolcraft 22, Centreville 2 It’s fair to say defense reigned but both should score some playoff points as these two go on to successful seasons. Schoolcraft improved to 2-0, and Centreville is 1-1.
Upper Peninsula
HEADLINER Negaunee 40, Calumet 15 The Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper sent four teams to the playoffs last season. Negaunee was one and now has defeated two more, with Calumet also the reigning league co-champion. The victory over the Copper Kings (0-2) actually was the Miners’ second straight, and they don’t face the other co-champion Ishpeming Westwood until Week 9 – although Week 8 opponent Houghton also is making some noise at 2-0 and becoming one to watch in that league. Click for more from the Marquette Mining Journal.
Watch list St. Ignace 48, Johannesburg-Lewiston 0 The Saints (2-0) have worked through some tough seasons of late as well, winning a combined three games over the last two years. But they’re riding some momentum this time as the schedule begins getting tougher this week.
On the move Gladstone 34, Kingsford 20 The Braves (2-0) have simply impressed over their first two wins, this one over the reigning co-champion of the Great Northern Conference. Iron Mountain 34, Ishpeming Westwood 0 As noted above, Westwood (0-2) was a Copper co-champion last season, and Iron Mountain bounced back after falling Week 1 to Negaunee. Sault Ste. Marie 16, Grayling 7 The Blue Devils (2-0) had fallen 36-32 last season in their first NMFL Legends meeting with Grayling (1-0).
West Michigan
HEADLINER Rockford 31, Muskegon Mona Shores 27 The Rams (2-0) – No. 6 in Division 1 – came all the way back after trailing 20-0 late in the second quarter, as quarterback Mac VandenHout threw three touchdown passes including the go-ahead score 59 yards to Brody Thompson with 4:07 to play. Mona Shores, No. 4 in Division 2, moved to 1-1. Click for more from FOX 17.
Watch list East Kentwood 19, Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice 17 The Falcons (1-1) are playing for their first winning season since 2019 and looking strong after also opening with a close defeat against Muskegon. East Kentwood had lost to Brother Rice (0-2) last season 33-0.
On the move Grandville 45, Byron Center 27 That’s two weeks and two notable wins from the Bulldogs (2-0), who followed up a season-opening victory over Grand Blanc by defeating another 2021 playoff team in Byron Center (1-1). Holland West Ottawa 21, Portage Northern 10 The Panthers are 2-0 after bringing a 26-game losing streak into this season. Grand Rapids Christian 41, Fruitport 34 The Eagles (1-1) trailed by 27 points late in the first half before scoring the final 34 points of the game to get past the Trojans (1-1).
8-Player
HEADLINER Litchfield 36, Burr Oak 14 The Terriers (2-0) are one of the best stories of the early going this season, opening with a pair of victories after losing 20 straight games from 2019-21. Litchfield hadn’t defeated Burr Oak (0-2) since 2011 and lost their matchup last season 44-22. Click for more from the Hillsdale Daily News.
Watch list Merrill 36, Breckenridge 14 This could end up developing into a great rivalry game, and Merrill (2-0) now owns a 1-0 lead in the 8-player series after Breckenridge (1-1) won their last four meetings as 11-player teams.
On the move Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian 51, Indian River Inland Lakes 18 The Mustangs (2-0) are another team that has been especially impressive over the first two weeks, this time adding 51 points to the 65 they put up against Suttons Bay in the season opener. Inland Lakes (1-1) gave up that many only twice in going 10-1 last season. Pittsford 28, Camden-Frontier 6 The Wildcats (2-0) could quickly become contenders with their switch to 8-player, and they’ve looked good so far outscoring their first two opponents by a combined 78-6. Munising 14, Newberry 0 The Mustangs’ defense deserves plenty of praise after stopping a Newberry offense that scored 58 points last week and averaged 36 points per game a year ago.
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PHOTOS (Top) A Mount Pleasant ball carrier works to pull away from a Midland defender during the Oilers' Week 2 win. (2) An official readies for a play during Sanford Meridian's 14-0 win over Shepherd. (3) Paw Paw runs the ball on the way to its first victory, 33-27 over Otsego. (4) A Morrice ball carrier pulls away during a 68-14 win over Vestaburg. (Top and photos 2 and 4 by High School Sports Scene; photo 3 by Gary Shook.)