Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Football Helped Bond Father & Son, But Fermans Will Meet As Rivals 1 More Time

By Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com

September 14, 2022

For about 2½ hours Friday night, Jeremy and Bryce Ferman will be opponents.

Bay & ThumbDuring that time, it will be about North Branch and Almont battling to remain unbeaten on the football field. About getting another win in the Blue Water Area Conference.

It will be a football game they try to treat like any other football game.

But immediately before and immediately after, their dynamic will be a much more familiar one, and one that was strengthened by the sport: father and son.

“I love him more than anything,” said North Branch coach Jeremy Ferman. “Just to see him over there, that part of it right there is special. Just to see how he’s grown up and the person that he is – the young man that he is. But yeah, once kickoff goes, it’s game on. We’re both competitive people. We probably hate losing more than we enjoy winning.”

Bryce Ferman is a senior running back and linebacker at Almont. He’s also a captain.

He grew up on the Almont sidelines, as his dad turned the Raiders into a perennial power. From 2004-15, Jeremy Ferman led Almont to the playoffs eight times, including trips to the Semifinals in 2011 and 2014. The Raiders won five BWAC titles, three District titles and two Regional titles during his time there.

And that success was made more special by the fact Bryce was right there for all of it.

“There’s a picture of him wearing an old headset, and it wasn’t working, but he had it on,” Jeremy Ferman said. “Some reporter took a picture of him and said, ‘Coach Little Ferman making the calls.’ It’s definitely been in his blood.”

As the Fermans were strengthening their father-son bond through football, Bryce also was soaking in lessons of how to be successful on and off the field.

On it, all he knows is winning. Almont has been to the playoffs every year since 2010, including a run to the Division 5 Final in 2019, Bryce’s freshman year.

As a player, he’s won a pair of postseason games – one during his sophomore year when he was called up late in the season, and one as a junior. This year, the Raiders are off to a 3-0 start.

“I learned how a good, sound football team should run,” he said. “I mean, that’s what my whole life has been. I’ve never been around a poorly run or structured team. It’s always just been that every year the playoffs were expected, and that’s how it still is.”

Jeremy Ferman, then the coach at Almont, accompanies Bryce across the field about a decade ago.The greater lesson learned on those sidelines, though, was how to be a leader. It’s something he focused on as he worked to be part of Almont’s leadership team heading into his junior year.

“We had to go through interviews, write letters, all the stuff that really prepares you for jobs and everything,” Bryce said. “What I wrote my letter on is how I saw all these leaders growing up. That’s all I know. That’s all I know how to be.”

Watching his son make the most of those lessons has been a point of pride for Jeremy Ferman.

“To watch him mature, to watch his leadership – as a dad, it’s pretty (darn) special,” he said.

Following his time with Almont, Jeremy Ferman spent a year apiece with Durand and Flint Kearsley before taking over the North Branch program in 2017. Over his first five seasons, Ferman has taken the Broncos to the playoffs four times, including a run to the Regional Final in 2020. Prior to his arrival, the program had three playoff appearances all-time.

“Every year, I expect him to win – I mean, that’s all he does,” Bryce Ferman said. “That’s all he does.”

The benefit of the two now competing in the same conference is that they get to compare notes on other teams. And having grown up around football, Bryce has become quite a student of the game. The two break down film together regularly, and even when their teams or opponents aren’t involved, their viewing experience involves analyzing the action on the field. Jeremy Ferman remarked that he would welcome Bryce on his coaching staff, whenever he’s done playing.

So while this week there will be no talk of strategy, there is normally plenty of it.

“We both played Imlay City already, I played them the week before he did, and he picked my brain a little bit and we watched film together,” Jeremy Ferman said. “I help him out with personnel, and vice versa. He’s helped me out. We talked about Hamtramck (Almont’s Week 2 opponent, which North Branch plays in Week 5), a little bit. … He wants me to be successful, and I want him to be successful, as well.”

The common opponents also give Jeremy Ferman a chance to see his son on film as he’s breaking down other teams.

“I always have my dad hat on, but my coaching hat kind of gets bigger sometimes,” Jeremy Ferman said. “I have a job to do there. But yeah, you’re watching film and he’s playing against them, and I’m peeking. I’m seeing what he’s doing and then I’ll say, ‘Oh crap, that’s right. I’m Dad, but I’m the head coach right now.’”

Friday night’s game won’t be the first time the two have squared off. A year ago, North Branch defeated Almont 20-14 in a hard-fought game.

That doesn’t make this upcoming matchup any easier, of course, but the Fermans are approaching it in the same way.

“I want him to have the best game of his career Friday night, but I want NB to win the game,” Jeremy Ferman said. “That’s the best of both worlds in this situation. … He’s going to run his (tail) off this Friday night, and he’s going to block, and he’s going to be the leader because that’s what is expected of him.”

Added Bryce: “It doesn’t matter who I’m going up against. When we’re out on the field, between the lines, we’re playing football. But from before and after the game, (this week) is a different story. And that’s with a lot of the kids up there, too. I mean, I know a lot of them. But it doesn’t matter when we’re between the lines and we’re playing.”

Paul CostanzoPaul Costanzo served as a sportswriter at The Port Huron Times Herald from 2006-15, including three years as lead sportswriter, and prior to that as sports editor at the Hillsdale Daily News from 2005-06. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Saginaw, Bay, Arenac, Midland and Gladwin counties.

PHOTOS (Top) North Branch coach Jeremy Ferman and Almont junior Bryce Ferman hug after last year’s matchup between their teams. (Middle) Jeremy Ferman, then the coach at Almont, accompanies Bryce across the field about a decade ago. (Photos courtesy of the Ferman family.)