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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

An East Lansing ball carrier (3) works to break away from a DeWitt tackler.

1st & Goal: 2022 Week 4 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 19, 2022

All winning streaks eventually end. And in mentioning them, it is more in recognition of what was accomplished than what is now over.

MI Student AidA couple of those endings took center stage during Week 4.

In 11-player, reigning Division 2 champion Warren De La Salle Collegiate saw its 16-game winning streak end with a one-point loss to rival Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice. The Pilots hadn’t been defeated since the 2020 Division 2 Final.

In 8-player, Adrian Lenawee Christian lost its first game since switching from 11-player at the start of 2020, and a week after tying Powers North Central’s 8-player record of 27 straight victories from 2015-17. Colon ended the streak, while the same weekend North Central’s current team also tied their record with a 27th-consecutive win.

See below for many more headliners as we move toward the midpoint of the regular season this week.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER North Branch 34, Almont 14 There are four strong contenders for the Blue Water Area Conference title, but it’s starting to feel like the decider will be the Week 8 matchup between North Branch (4-0) and Croswell-Lexington. Almont (3-1) can still impact this race – the Raiders see Armada this week and Croswell-Lexington next – but the Broncos have to feel pretty good about getting this one out of the way. Click for more from The Sports Report.

Watch list Bay City Western 70, Midland Dow 41 It was only five years ago that Western scored 45 points for the season, but in this victory the Warriors (3-1) went over 60 for the third time over the last two seasons – and after playing Dow (2-2) to a one-point loss and two-point playoff win last fall.

On the move Ubly 42, Harbor Beach 0 Two games into the league schedule, the Greater Thumb Conference East appears strongly in Ubly’s grasp, as the Bearcats (4-0) upped their average margin of victory overall this season to 46-7 while handing the Pirates (3-1) their lone loss. Davison 56, Saginaw Heritage 20 The Hawks (3-1) had earned much of the attention in the Saginaw Valley League over the first three weeks, but the Cardinals (3-1) solidified a spot as a top contender in the SVL South with Lapeer. Swartz Creek 26, Fenton 23 The Dragons (4-0) have done some impressive building the last three seasons and likely enjoyed this win a little more after splitting last year’s Flint Metro League Stripes title with the Tigers (2-2) because of a 41-27 defeat.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice 43, Warren De La Salle Collegiate 42 This might be the stunner of the 11-player season so far, as De La Salle (3-1) had won 16 straight games and 21 of its last 22. But looking back, it must be noted that Brother Rice (2-2) had given the Pilots some of their toughest games over the last five seasons, falling last year only 21-15 and winning the 2019 and 2020 matchups. The Detroit Catholic League Central is so loaded, it’s tough to forecast what happens from here. But this will certainly be a difference-maker in some way. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

Watch list Detroit Martin Luther King 28, Detroit Cass Tech 23 Any other week this would be the premier game in the Detroit area and beyond, as this time King (2-1) held off a late comeback by Cass Tech (1-3) after the Crusaders took a 28-10 lead.

On the move West Bloomfield 35, Clarkston 27 These Oakland Activities Association Red rivals can’t help but combine for must-see football, with this the third-straight meeting and fifth game over their last six together decided by eight or fewer points. West Bloomfield is up to 4-0, and Clarkston is 2-2 with two one-score defeats. Walled Lake Western 51, South Lyon East 23 The Warriors (4-0) are halfway through the Lakes Valley Conference schedule alone in first and a win better than multiple other contenders – including South Lyon East (3-1) in a competitive race. Gibraltar Carlson 27, Trenton 6 The Marauders (4-0) have downed two of the other three top contenders in the Downriver League in successive weeks, the time handing Trenton (3-1) its lone defeat.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER East Lansing 36, DeWitt 30 The Trojans (4-0) scored the only points of the four quarter – in fact, of the entire second half – to earn valuable position in the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue and potentially put DeWitt’s 15-season league title streak in jeopardy. Jace Clarizio made the big plays on both sides of the ball late as East Lansing avenged last season’s 49-14 loss to the Panthers (2-2). Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Mason 37, Williamston 29 While most eyes have been on East Lansing and DeWitt, Mason (4-0) might be the best CAAC team few are talking about. Williamston (3-1) joined Holt from two weeks ago among league title contenders to suffer their first loss this season to the Bulldogs.

On the move Belding 46, Grandville Calvin Christian 26 Both entered undefeated, and Belding (4-0) has yet to play a single-digit game this fall. Grand Ledge 37, Lansing Waverly 20 The Comets (3-1) came back from a Week 3 loss to rival Holt to hand Waverly (3-1) its lone defeat. Mount Pleasant 27, Traverse City Central 21 The SVL is even stronger this season with the additions of TC Central and TC West, and the Oilers (4-0) held off the Trojans (1-3) in their league debut after breaking a halftime tie with all 13 points of the third quarter.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Traverse City St. Francis 49, Kingsley 12 The Gladiators (4-0) ran their winning streak over Kingsley to two straight and in doing so may have gained the eventual edge to repeat as Northern Michigan Football League Legends champion. St. Francis scored more than 42 points for the fourth time in four games this fall, but maybe more impressive is a defense that held the Stags (2-2) to their fewest points since 2018. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Watch list Charlevoix 48, Elk Rapids 0 The Rayders (4-0) have put together great starts all of the last four seasons, but nothing like this. They’re up to three straight shutouts, winning by a combined score of 165-0, and handed Elk Rapids (3-1) its only defeat.

On the move Gaylord 27, Petoskey 12 After a slight stumble two weeks ago against Marquette, Gaylord (3-1) got a third win to guarantee its best season since 2018. McBain 55, Houghton Lake 19 After opening with defeats to Kingsley and Beal City, McBain (2-2) has evened its record with more tough Highland Conference competition on the way. Cadillac 46, Alpena 14 The Vikings’ two defeats came against much larger opponents from the Saginaw Valley League, but they are likely the strongest contenders now in the Traverse City-less Big North Conference.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Carleton Airport 41, Grosse Ile 34 Both of these teams are in the midst of bounce-back campaigns, and Carleton Airport (4-0) has now equaled its win totals of both of the last two seasons. Handing Grosse Ile (3-1) its first defeat also leaves the Jets and Week 7 opponent Riverview as the last undefeated teams in the Huron League. Click for more from the Monroe News.

Watch list Union City 18, Reading 16 The Chargers (3-1) ran their winning streak over Reading (3-1) to two straight and have put themselves on firm footing tied with this week’s opponent Homer atop the Big 8 Conference.

On the move Addison 42, Michigan Center 40 The Panthers (3-1) have defeated Michigan Center (1-3) the last two seasons by a combined three points. Jackson Lumen Christi 19, Parma Western 14 The Titans’ three losses have been so strong that adding in this win over Western (2-2) sends Lumen up to No. 24 in Division 7. Tecumseh 48, Adrian 26 They have two more to win first, but this one puts Tecumseh (4-0) much closer to playing Chelsea for the Southeastern Conference White title in Week 7.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Edwardsburg 10, Vicksburg 7 The scores have been a little closer than usual during the early going in the Wolverine Conference. But Edwardsburg is still the team to chase. The Eddies (3-1) remain undefeated in league play thanks to Carter Houseworth’s 42-yard field goal with two seconds to play that sent Vicksburg to 2-2. Click for more from the Niles Daily Star.

Watch list St. Joseph 35, Battle Creek Lakeview 14 The Bears (3-1) have set themselves up for a Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference showdown this week against reigning champ Portage Central, which defeated St. Joseph 36-30 a year ago.

On the move Paw Paw 56, Sturgis 42 The Redwolves (3-1) have upped their offensive production each of the last three weeks, this time to outlast a Sturgis team that has scored a combined 97 points over its last two games. Constantine 56, Schoolcraft 22 This rivalry restored went Constantine’s way in a big way as the Falcons (3-1) defeated Schoolcraft (3-1) for the first time since the 2015 playoffs. Battle Creek Central 42, Stevensville Lakeshore 35 After falling just short against Byron Center in the season opener, Central has won three straight to guarantee equaling its best overall record since 2018.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Gladstone 40, St. Ignace 0 Make Gladstone the Upper Peninsula team that should be getting the most attention statewide. The Braves (4-0) are up to No. 5 in Division 6 playoff points after handing St. Ignace (3-1) its lone defeat, and they have yet to play a single-digit game despite facing four opponents which are all 2-2 or better. Click for more from RRN Sports.

Watch list Houghton 34, Bark River-Harris 16 We’ve had an eye on Houghton all season, and it remains justified as the Gremlins (3-1) bounced back from last week’s loss to Iron Mountain to hand the Broncos (3-1) their lone defeat.

On the move Menominee 48, Escanaba 28 The Maroons (2-2) got back to .500 and back to scoring 40 points after being held to just six both of the last two weeks. Ishpeming Westwood 14, Ishpeming 12 (OT) The Patriots (1-3) have had a tough start with two losses by three points or fewer, but getting one of those results back against the rival Hematites (2-2) could provide a jumpstart. Kingsford 28, Marquette 14 The Flivvers (2-2) broke a two-game losing streak as they wait for a possible Gladstone slip-up in the Great Northern Conference.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Byron Center 48, Lowell 35 Put in context, Byron Center’s 2-2 start might be the best 2-2 start in Michigan. The Bulldogs handed Lowell (3-1) its lone loss, and their Week 1 win over Battle Creek Central remains the Bearcats’ only defeat. Byron Center’s losses came to still-unbeaten Grandville and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central. This time, the Bulldogs got up 28-7 by halftime and never looked back. Click for more from Michigan Sports Radio.

Watch list Grand Rapids Northview 22, Grand Rapids Christian 14 After falling to East Grand Rapids in the Ottawa-Kent Conference White opener, Northview (2-2) bounced way back to avenge last season’s 48-17 loss to Grand Rapids Christian (2-2).

On the move Muskegon Oakridge 30, Ludington 18 This combined with Whitehall’s big win over Montague has made the Eagles and Vikings remaining favorites in the West Michigan Conference Lakes. Kent City 67, White Cloud 26 The Eagles (4-0) are one more win from matching their season totals of the last two. Ada Forest Hills Eastern 35, Wayland 16 The Hawks are 4-0 for the first time since 2015 and a win from equaling last year’s success, while Wayland (2-2) already has guaranteed its best finish since 2018.

8-Player

HEADLINER Colon 40, Adrian Lenawee Christian 24 Not only had Lenawee Christian never lost an 8-player game, but the Cougars had played only one single-digit game during that 27-win streak – in Week 2 this season against Toledo Christian. Colon has been nearly as impressive since switching to 8-player in 2018 and moved to 45-6 over those five seasons with this victory. Click for more from the Sturgis Journal.

Watch list Rudyard 34, Pickford 6 This was the second-straight win for Rudyard (2-2) over Pickford, and whereas last year’s denied Pickford (3-1) a championship share in the Great Lakes Eight Conference East, this one could also shake up the league race.

On the move Norway 30, Crystal Falls Forest Park 28 Adding this to the Lake Linden-Hubbell win two weeks ago, Norway has surged into contention in the GLEC West and sits as the most likely challenger to North Central. Powers North Central 67, Ontonagon 0 Speaking of, this was the performance that gave the Jets that 27th-straight victory – their second shutout this fall (one win was a forfeit) as they’ve given up only three points over the first month. Breckenridge 44, Portland St. Patrick 20 As anticipated, the Huskies (3-1) are adjusting well to 8-player in their first season, with this win over the annually-contending Shamrocks (3-1) the most impressive so far.

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PHOTO: East Lansing's Kanye Jackson (3) works to break away from a DeWitt defender during the Trojans' Week 4 victory. (Click for more from High School Sports Scene.)