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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

A Negaunee ball carrier leaps over an Ishpeming defender during their game on 9-23-22.

1st & Goal: 2022 Week 5 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 26, 2022

The champs are here – with more soon on the way.  

MI Student AidWeek 5 saw the first football league champions awarded in Michigan, as at least four varsity teams clinched conference titles as the regular season reached its midpoint.

Several more matchups shaped where league races will be heading the rest of the way. Here’s our glance at many of them.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Frankenmuth 21, Freeland 0 An Eagles defense that has been difficult to break the last many seasons may have put up its most impressive performance of at least the last few. Freeland (4-1) was averaging nearly 49 points per game this fall, but Frankenmuth (5-0) now has given up 30 total this season and none over the last two weeks as it’s taken the sole lead in the Tri-Valley Conference 8. Click for more from the Saginaw News.

Watch list Standish-Sterling 28, Millington 24 The Panthers (5-0) came back from 10 down with a quarter to play to clinch a share of the Tri-Valley Conference 10-1 and hand the Cardinals (4-1) their lone defeat. Millington had won their matchups the last two seasons.

On the move Flint Hamady 61, Flint Beecher 20 The Hawks (5-0) also clinched a share of their league title, in the Genesee Area Conference, and ran their recent streak against Beecher (2-3) to four wins over their last five meetings. Port Huron Northern 14, Port Huron 7 The Huskies (5-0) sit alone atop the Macomb Area Conference Blue after holding the rival Big Reds (4-1) scoreless over the final quarter. Grand Blanc 28, East Lansing 21 The Bobcats (3-2) have caught their stride the last two weeks, this time handing East Lansing (4-1) its lone defeat.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Macomb Dakota 28, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 17 Not many seasons go by without this being one of our headlining matchups, and Dakota (5-0) now sits alone atop the MAC Red after running its winning streak over Chippewa Valley to four. The teams were tied into the final eight minutes of the game before the Big Reds (4-1) took a brief lead and the Cougars broke away for the win. Click for more from Macomb Daily.

Watch list Rochester Adams 35, West Bloomfield 18 The Oakland Activities Association Red might be the deepest league in Michigan this season, and newcomer Adams (4-1) is back into a four-way tie for first place after handing reigning champion West Bloomfield (4-1) its lone loss.

On the move Detroit Catholic Central 21, Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice 19 The Shamrocks (4-1) are the early leaders in the Detroit Catholic League Central after stopping a fourth-quarter Rice two-point conversion attempt – and the Warriors’ opportunity to clinch a share of the conference title. Detroit Central 35, Detroit Southeastern 20 Central gave up its first points since Week 1, but also slowed down a Southeastern offense that was averaging nearly 43 points per game. The Trailblazers (5-0) moved into first alone in the Detroit Public School League Gold, with the Jungaleers (4-1) tied with two others for second. Grosse Pointe South 21, Roseville 14 South (3-2) also took over first place alone, in the MAC White, by sending Roseville (3-2) into a three-way tie for second.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Fowler 20, Pewamo-Westphalia 16 The Eagles broke a seven-game losing streak against the  rival Pirates (3-2), and in doing so took control in the Central Michigan Athletic Conference; their matchup has eventually decided the last two league champions. A final-minute touchdown clinched it for Fowler (5-0). Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Mason 28, Haslett 13 The Bulldogs (5-0) are up to fourth in Division 3 playoff-point average and alone atop the Capital Area Activities Conference Red with a second-straight win over one of last season’s co-champions.

On the move Beal City 26, Evart 21 The undefeated Aggies’ drive to repeat in the Highland Conference got a major boost as they sent Evart (4-1) into a tie for second with three league games to play. Mount Pleasant 46, Bay City Western 18 The Oilers (5-0) lead the Saginaw Valley League North at the midway point after also sending Western (3-2) into a tie for second in that league. Brighton 17, Northville 14 They entered tied for first in the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West, but Brighton (5-0) ended the night alone atop the league after blocking a late field-goal attempt by the Mustangs (4-1).

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Cadillac 19, Gaylord 9 The Vikings (3-2) clinched a share of the Big North Conference championship with their first single-digit defensive showing of another solid run on that side of the ball this season. The defense was a difference-maker for the offense as well, as all three Cadillac touchdowns were set up by turnovers. Click for more from the Cadillac News.

Watch list East Jordan 35, Maple City Glen Lake 9 After opening with two nonleague losses, the Red Devils (3-2) have won their first three games in the Northern Michigan Football League Legacy, including this one to move into a tie for first place and send the Lakers (3-2) out of the top spot.

On the move Lake City 36, McBain 30 (OT) The Trojans (3-2) remain alive in the Highland Conference race thanks to an unforgettable comeback from a 30-0 deficit to get past the Ramblers (2-3). Petoskey 24, Alpena 20 This gave the Northmen (2-3) a chance to win a share of the BNC title this week against Cadillac. Ogemaw Heights 7, Sault St. Marie 6 The Falcons (3-2) tied their win totals of both of the last two seasons but this time with four games to play, and handed the Blue Devils (4-1) their lone loss in the process.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Dundee 9, Brooklyn Columbia Central 7 Brayden Ratliff’s leg was a decider in a defensive battle, as he kicked three field goals including the game-winner with eight seconds to play. Dundee is 5-0 for the first time since 1992, per Michigan-football.com, with a chance to shape the race in the Lenawee County Athletic Association with undefeated Clinton and Hudson coming up over the next three weeks. Click for more from the Monroe News.

Watch list Erie Mason 20, Sand Creek 14 Halfway through the Tri-County Conference schedule, Erie Mason (5-0) is tied for first after avenging a 48-6 loss to Sand Creek from a year ago.

On the move Ottawa Lake Whiteford 54, Petersburg Summerfield 6 The Bobcats also are tied for first in the TCC; they face Erie Mason in Week 8. Napoleon 35, Hanover-Horton 7 The Pirates (5-0) sit alone atop the Cascades Conference thanks to a second-straight win over Hanover-Horton (2-3). Grass Lake 36, Michigan Center 29 The Warriors (3-2) are one of three teams in the Cascades with one league loss, with this win putting a little more on the line for the showdown with Napoleon this week.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER St. Joseph 13, Portage Central 12 The Bears (4-1) took a major step in the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference by edging and avenging a 2021 loss to the reigning champion Mustangs (2-3), sending them a game back in the league standings. St. Joseph’s next two games are against opponents also a game back – Portage Northern and Stevensville Lakeshore – but an especially intriguing Week 9 is brewing as Battle Creek Central is the other SMAC co-leader. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.

Watch list Edwardsburg 25, Plainwell 21 A major comeback pushed the Eddies’ Wolverine Conference winning streak to 36 as they received but handled a tough challenge for a second-straight one-score victory.

On the move Union City 20, Homer 14 The Chargers (4-1) sit alone atop the Big 8 Conference after a third-straight one-score win over a team now sitting in second, third or fourth place. Homer (3-2) is that second-place team hoping for a slip up, but Union City needs to win only one of its final two league games to clinch a share of the title. Berrien Springs 20, Benton Harbor 14 Three of five teams in the first-year Lakeland Conference are 4-1 or better, and Berrien Springs (5-0) sits alone in first after handing Benton Harbor (2-3) its second-straight one-score defeat. Centreville 40, White Pigeon 28 The Bulldogs (4-1) are in first halfway through the Southwest 10 Conference schedule, with White Pigeon (2-3) looking to finish strong after losing three games to teams that are a combined 11-4.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Gladstone 48, Marquette 21 The Braves (5-0) clinched a share of the Great Northern Conference championship, with the opportunity to win it outright coming up Week 9 against Escanaba (unless Kingsford or Menominee loses a league game before then). This was another one that was never really in question as Gladstone has now won all of its games by at least two touchdowns. Click for more from RRN Sports.

Watch list Iron Mountain 45, Bark River-Harris 8 Since falling to Negaunee by five in Week 1, the Mountaineers (4-1) have been nearly unstoppable giving up a combined 14 points over the last four games – and with Bark River-Harris (3-2) the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Iron leader.

On the move Ishpeming Westwood 22, Manistique 6 After opening 0-3 with two two-point losses, Westwood (2-3) is on the rise with a defense that’s giving up only 17 points per game. Negaunee 49, Ishpeming 14 Both are possible champions in their respective divisions of the West PAC, but this solidifies Copper leader Negaunee as another of the best teams overall in all of the Upper Peninsula. The Miners play Gladstone in Week 7. Houghton 42, Hancock 0 The Gremlins avenged last season’s loss and earned their first win in this rivalry since 2018.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Zeeland West 38, Muskegon 36 This rollercoaster ride came to a stop with Zeeland West tied with Muskegon Mona Shores atop the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green and Muskegon and Reeths-Puffer just a game back in the standings. The Dux led by double digits, then trailed late before scoring during the final minute to move to 5-0. The Big Reds are 3-2, but with those losses to teams that are a combined 9-1. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Watch list Caledonia 50, Grandville 40 After things sorted out in the O-K Red on Friday, Caledonia finds itself tied for first with Grandville a game back thanks in part to quarterback Mason McKenzie’s standout performance.

On the move Grand Rapids Catholic Central 49, Ada Forest Hills Eastern 21 This stayed close for most of three quarters before GRCC (5-0) broke away to remain tied for first in the O-K Gold and send FHE (4-1) into third. Rockford 41, East Kentwood 20 The Rams (5-0) joined Caledonia in first in the O-K Red, while East Kentwood (3-2) joined Grandville one game back. East Grand Rapids 42, Grand Rapids Christian 14 The Pioneers’ offense found its footing and in doing so gave the team some hope for the final month as it looks to bounce back from a 1-3 start during which all three losses came to opponents still undefeated.

8-Player

HEADLINER Powers North Central 50, Lake Linden-Hubbell 0 The Jets (5-0) broke their previous MHSAA 8-player consecutive wins record with their 28th in a row –  with their third of four wins on the field this season while not giving up a point. The Lakes (3-2) had been averaging nearly 34 points per game. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.

Watch list Auburn Hills Oakland Christian 52, Deckerville 44 After falling in its North Central Thumb League Stars debut three weeks earlier, Oakland Christian (4-1) showed how smoothly it has adjusted to its new conference with this significant win over an annual favorite.

On the move Mendon 36, Gobles 6 The Hornets (3-2) have moved up from 23rd to tied for 11th in Division 2 playoff-point average over the last two weeks, this time in part because of the early success by the Tigers (3-2) – who are in the midst of what could be their most successful season since 2016. Posen 56, Mio 48 After winning just once a year ago, Posen is up to 4-1 with three wins over 2021 playoff teams including the Thunderbolts (3-2). Morrice 42, Breckenridge 20 We’ve been following Breckenridge’s rise in its first season of 8-player, and Morrice (5-0) stood strong against a tough challenge with a possible league title decider against Merrill up next.

Second Half’s weekly “1st & Goal” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTOS (Top) Negaunee's Kai Lacer (22) leaps over an Ishpeming defender during a touchdown run Friday. (Middle) A Zeeland West passer lofts a throw against Muskegon. (Below) Powers North Central celebrates its record-setting win. (Top and middle photos by Cara Kamps and Tim Reilly, respectively. Bottom photo courtesy of the North Central athletic department.)