Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

1st & Goal: 2022 Week 6 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 30, 2022

Many Michigan football league play right through the end of the regular season, although often league championships are decided by power-packed matchups in Weeks 6, 7 or 8.

MI Student AidThis Week 6 is shaping up as perhaps the week that may most shape the 2022 regular season.

A number of eventual conference champions could be decided tonight – some surely by the eight matchups of teams entering the weekend both 5-0.

Games below are Friday unless noted. Click for the full schedule from MHSAA.com and check out the broadcast schedule from MHSAA.tv.

Bay & Thumb

Saginaw Nouvel (4-1) at Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary (5-0) 

MLS quietly has been dominating this season, with its 233 points only 24 shy of the team’s total over nine games last season. While three wins have come against teams that remain without a victory, a fourth was 43-32 over Marine City Cardinal Mooney, which leads the Detroit Catholic League Intersectional 2. MLS’s next two games – this one against Nouvel and next week against Ithaca – should be similarly tough and will decide if the Cardinals will claim the Tri-Valley Conference 10-2 title, which would be their first league championship since their most recent overall winning season in 2019. Nouvel’s only loss was to Ithaca in Week 3.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Almont (3-2) at Croswell-Lexington (5-0), Grand Blanc (3-2) at Lapeer (5-0), Linden (4-1) at Swartz Creek (5-0), New Lothrop (5-0) at Montrose (3-2).

Greater Detroit

Warren De La Salle Collegiate (4-1) at Detroit Catholic Central (4-1), Sunday

Every season this game means something, and this season it’s likely to again determine the Detroit Catholic League Central title. DCC went undefeated in Central play to win the league championship in 2020, but relinquished it to the Pilots last season as De La Salle downed the Shamrocks 17-7 in what ended up the title decider. Both teams have done serious work over the first five weeks this fall. DCC came back from a season-opening loss to Clinton Township Chippewa Valley with wins over Davison, DeWitt, Detroit U-D Jesuit and Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice by two points. De La Salle’s only loss was by a point to Rice, and the Pilots own wins over Detroit Renaissance, Muskegon, Jesuit and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Davison (4-1) at Walled Lake Western (5-0), Detroit Central (5-0) at Detroit Northwestern (4-1), Marine City (4-1) at Madison Heights Lamphere (4-1), Macomb Dakota (5-0) at Romeo (4-1).

Mid-Michigan

Portland (4-1) at Charlotte (5-0)

This could be Charlotte’s biggest game since 2008, when it shared the Capital Area Activities Conference Gold title with DeWitt and Haslett. A win over the Raiders would give the Orioles a share of the CAAC White championship – a nice jump after going 2-3 in league play last season. Charlotte has had only four overall winning seasons since 2008 but has all but guaranteed one this fall. Portland, meanwhile, is a five-point Week 2 loss from being undefeated and looking to take back the White after seeing a league title streak end at six last season.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Marshall (4-1) at Hastings (4-1), Gladstone (5-0) at Durand (5-0), DeWitt (3-2) at Grand Ledge (4-1), Olivet (4-1) at Pewamo-Westphalia (3-2).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Charlevoix (5-0) at Boyne City (5-0)

Boyne City’s last league loss was to eventual champion Charlevoix in 2020. Charlevoix’s only league loss since 2019 was last year to eventual champion Boyne City. And that makes for a pretty solid rivalry as this matchup could again decide the Northern Michigan Football Conference Leaders title. Charlevoix hasn’t given up a point since opening night – with a 48-0 shutout of third-place Elk Rapids among the four straight. Boyne City won by forfeit last week but is barreling along at 46 points per game – making the Ramblers’ offense vs. the Rayders’ defense the matchup of the night.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY East Jordan (3-2) at Frankfort (4-1), Sault Ste. Marie (4-1) at Kingsley (3-2), Cadillac (3-2) at Petoskey (2-3), Evart (4-1) at McBain (2-3).

Southeast & Border

Clinton (5-0) at Dundee (5-0)

Dundee football re-arrived on the scene in 2019 with its first playoff appearance since 2013, and the Vikings took it a step farther last season making the District Finals for the first time since 2011. A win this week would be another giant step, as Clinton has won nine or more games the last three seasons and continues to be a major contender in the Lenawee County Athletic Association. Clinton has won its first three league games this fall by a combined 137-13, and Dundee has given up only 20 points over its first three including against two of the same opponents.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Union City (4-1) at Addison (4-1), Ann Arbor Huron (3-2) at Dexter (5-0), Napoleon (5-0) at Grass Lake (3-2), Tecumseh (5-0) at Jackson (3-2).

Southwest Corridor

Berrien Springs (5-0) at Buchanan (4-1)

These two are part of the inaugural Lakeland Conference, with Benton Harbor, Dowagiac and Niles Brandywine, and a win tonight would put Berrien Springs one away from earning the first league title (while a win combined with a Brandywine loss to Benton Harbor would give the Shamrocks a share of the championship). These two also are rivals from the former Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph Conference, and Berrien Springs has won six of the last seven meetings – but Buchanan already has more wins this fall than all of last season.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Edwardsburg (4-1) at Paw Paw (3-2), Portage Northern (3-2) at St. Joseph (4-1), Allegan (3-2) at Constantine (4-1), Battle Creek Central (4-1) at Portage Central (2-3).

Upper Peninsula

Calumet (3-2) at Iron Mountain (4-1)

Iron Mountain is up to No. 3 in Division 8 playoff-point average, ahead of four undefeated teams thanks to that lone loss coming to unbeaten Division 6 Negaunee. But Calumet has been a bit of a thorn during a strong five-year run by the Mountaineers, winning two of three meetings on the field since Iron Mountain joined the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference in 2018. The Copper Kings won last year’s matchup 21-6 and have picked up three straight wins (one a forfeit) this fall since opening the season with losses to Negaunee and Gladstone – arguably the two best teams in the Upper Peninsula.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Negaunee (5-0) vs. L'Anse (3-2), Maple City Glen Lake (3-2) at St. Ignace (4-1), Bark River-Harris (3-2) at Manistique (2-3). SATURDAY Detroit Old Redford (3-2) at Kingsford (3-2).

West Michigan

Grand Rapids Catholic Central (5-0) at Grand Rapids South Christian (5-0)

Grand Rapids Catholic Central’s 41-game winning streak may face one of its toughest challenges yet – and that’s saying something as the Cougars defeated South Christian by only a point in 2020 and have won three straight Division 4 or 5 Finals. GRCC already has outlasted Ada Forest Hills Eastern and held on against Cedar Springs to defeat the latter by a point. But the Sailors have yet to play a game closer than 22 points – that one a 28-6 win over Cedar Springs – and have given up only 33 points on the year.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Whitehall (5-0) at Muskegon Oakridge (5-0), Lowell (4-1) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (5-0), Grandville (4-1) at Rockford (5-0), Muskegon Mona Shores (4-1) at Zeeland West (5-0).

8-Player

Morrice (5-0) at Merrill (5-0)

This almost assuredly will end up deciding the Central Michigan 8-Man Football Conference championship, as these two sit atop the standings and two games ahead of four more teams tied for third. Merrill is ranked No. 4 in Division 1, and Morrice is No. 6 in Division 2, and neither has faced a massive challenge yet – the closest game for both was a 22-point win over Breckenridge. Morrice has been among standard-setters in 8-player, with a combined 46-4 record over the last five seasons. But Merrill appears on the verge of joining the elite coming off its first win over annual power Portland St. Patrick since moving to 8-player in 2020.  

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Brown City (4-1) at Britton Deerfield (3-2), Climax-Scotts (5-0) at Colon (5-0), Pickford (4-1) at Munising (5-0), Martin (5-0) at Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian (5-0).

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PHOTO Caledonia, on defense, faces Holt during a season opener. (Click for more from High School Sports Scene.)